NCAA Beach tournament bids 2019 week 10

[trollhunter]

Does anyone have some free time, basic Excel skills and interest in calculating Strength of Schedule for each team?

I have been just using a SoS estimate, not the exact formula.

I'm happy to help with setup, just don't think I will have time to do it myself.

[Deleted]

I volunteer as tribute.

[trollhunter]

FIU vs GSU 3-2
FIU vs FSU 1-4
FIU vs FAU 3-2
CalPoly vs UAB 5-0
CalPoly vs GCU 3-2
CalPoly vs AZ 1-4 *fans of other bubble teams will like this*
CalPoly vs ASU 3-2
Hawaii OFF
LBSU OFF
SCarolina vs TAMUK 5-0
SCarolina vs LSU 1-4
SCarolina vs TCU 2-3 *fans of other bubble teams will like this*
SCarolina vs Houston Baptist 4-1
Stetson vs Jacksonville (Fri) 5-0
Stetson vs UNF 4-1 (Fri)
Stetson vs Jacksonville (Sat) 5-0
Stetson vs UNF (Sat) 4-1
Cal vs USC 0-5
Cal vs UCLA 1-4
Cal vs Washington 3-2
Cal vs Stanford
LMU vs UCLA 1-4
LMU vs CSU-Bakersfield 5-0

Go here for complete weekend schedule with date/time/location:

volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/76627/2019-ncaa-season-results-weekend?page=24#ixzz5kG5EUccg

[trollhunter]

Apr 2, 2019 15:59:59 GMT -5 @micahlitt said:

I volunteer as tribute.

Excited that @micahlitt is doing the actual NCAA Strength of Schedule calculations for bubble teams!

I have just being using a calculation that gives a close estimate to actual SoS for my comparisons so far.

Having done this SoS in the past, I know it is a lot of work! Thanks @micahlitt!

It will be great to have exact SoS, since the bid race is so close for bubble teams this year.

[Deleted]

Here's the SoS for the bubble teams. Standings as of 04/03/2019 (Rounded):

*Highest 2 in bold

Team	%	W-L
Hawai'i	0.54906	18-7
Cal Poly SLO	0.54599	14-6
Florida International (FIU)	0.66970	11-8
Long Beach State University	0.44561	17-8
Stetson	0.58868	17-8
South Carolina	0.62784	15-6
LMU	0.49974	15-8
California	0.52771	14-3

I was informed LMU and Cal are outside the bubble but I added them on the table because they have a chance for an upset(s). Mainly Cal as they have (USC, UCLA, LBSU, Pepp, CP(x2)) left on their schedule, unless I misread the text file.

Observations:

LBSU so far has played 6 teams that currently has <= 10 games; 2 of those 6 teams have played <= 8 games; 1 of those 2 teams have played <= 3 games.

LMU has played 8 teams with <= 10 games; 2 of those have played <=8.

EDIT:

CP SoS

FIU SoS

Corrected Southern Carolina to South Carolina

-Edit on So. Carolina SoS

[trollhunter]

Apr 5, 2019 0:27:17 GMT -5 @micahlitt said:

Here's the SoS for the bubble teams. Standings as of 04/03/2019 (Rounded):

*Highest 2 in bold

Team	%	W-L
Hawai'i	0.54906	18-7
Cal Poly SLO	0.54526	14-6
Florida International (FIU)	0.66785	11-8
Long Beach State University	0.44561	17-8
Stetson	0.58868	17-8
Southern Carolina	0.63681	15-6
LMU	0.49974	15-8
California	0.52771	14-3

I was informed LMU and Cal are outside the bubble but I added them on the table because they have a chance for an upset(s). Mainly Cal as they have (USC, UCLA, LBSU, Pepp, CP(x2)) left on their schedule, unless I misread the text file.

Observations:

LBSU so far has played 6 teams that currently has <= 10 games; 2 of those 6 teams have played <= 8 games; 1 of those 2 teams have played <= 3 games.

LMU has played 8 teams with <= 10 games; 2 of those have played <=8.

I wish I could like this post twice!

Thanks, and good point about LBSU opponents playing few matches, so the LBSU SoS could easily change a lot either way.

[trollhunter]

Apr 5, 2019 0:27:17 GMT -5 @micahlitt said:

Here's the SoS for the bubble teams. Standings as of 04/03/2019 (Rounded):

*Highest 2 in bold

Team	%	W-L
Hawai'i	0.54906	18-7
Cal Poly SLO	0.54599	14-6
Florida International (FIU)	0.66970	11-8
Long Beach State University	0.44561	17-8
Stetson	0.58868	17-8
South Carolina	0.63681	15-6
LMU	0.49974	15-8
California	0.52771	14-3

I was informed LMU and Cal are outside the bubble but I added them on the table because they have a chance for an upset(s). Mainly Cal as they have (USC, UCLA, LBSU, Pepp, CP(x2)) left on their schedule, unless I misread the text file.

Observations:

LBSU so far has played 6 teams that currently has <= 10 games; 2 of those 6 teams have played <= 8 games; 1 of those 2 teams have played <= 3 games.

LMU has played 8 teams with <= 10 games; 2 of those have played <=8.

EDIT:

CP SoS

FIU SoS

Corrected Southern Carolina to South Carolina

Looking at end of season SoS once they all play their remaining matches:

FIU will stay about the same and be #1 approx 0.6600

SCarolina may drop a little but be #2 approx 0.6200

Cal Poly will improve to #3 at approx 0.5900 (play many teams with good W/L records)

Stetson will drop to #4 tie playing ASUN teams to approx .5500

Hawaii will stay about the same at #4 tie approx 0.5500

LBSU will improve also but still #6 approx 0.5000 (could see more movement in their SOS if opponents do well vs others)

[Deleted]

Here's an update on the latest SoS.

Team	SoS	W/L
#6 Hawai'i	0.55488	18-7
#7 Cal Poly SLO	0.55651	16-6
#8 Florida International (FIU)	0.67580	12-9
#9 Long Beach State (LBSU)	0.45455	17-8
#10 Stetson	0.55926	18-8
#11 South Carolina	0.62796	15-6
#12 LMU	0.50558	15-8
#13 California	0.52571	14-3

[trollhunter]

Week 7 – NCAA bid projections, seeding and criteria comparisons

Seed-team name-NCAA bid-significant wins
1. UCLA - West bid 1 (beaten everyone, except up 2-1 over USC)
2. USC - West bid 2 (beaten everyone except -SCarolina, =Pep -UCLA (but won 1 of 3))
3. FSU – East bid 1 (=LSU +SCarolina x2 +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +LBSU, +Stetson +FIUx2)
4. LSU – East bid 2 (=FSU +SCarolina(2-1) +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +Stetson +FIU)
5. PEP – West bid 3 (+Hawaiix2 +LBSU +CalPoly +LMU? +FIU, =USC)
6. FIU – East bid 3 (+Stetsonx2 +FAUx2? –LSU –FSU –USCx2 –Hawaii)
7. BW winner? - At-Large bid 1 (really depends on how everyone finishes)
8. SCarolina? - At-Large bid 2 (really depends on how everyone finishes)

USC win over UCLA bodes well for NCAA Championship, but does not change seeds. Even if they beat them again in PAC12.

TOP 5 SEEDS – Are locked via good SOS, good records, H2H wins, CommOpp wins. In theory, LSU could move above FSU or below PEP.

EAST BID 3 - Team comparisons follow in next post. FIU still leads the rest of the pack.

AT-LARGE bids - Just randomly pick a team with a winning record and they probably have a shot.

Key:
+ indicates a win
= indicates a split
- indicates a loss
? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) be under consideration for a bid at end of season

Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently.

[trollhunter]

Week 7 - East bid #3 - FIU controls their own destiny!

*Resumes:
FIU 13-9 (11-3 East) +Stetsonx2 +FAUx2? –LSU –USCx2 –Hawaii
SCarolina 15-8 (13-7 East) +USC -LSU (1w-2l vs LSU) -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly -TCU
Stetson 20-8 (17-5 East) +SCarolina +LMU? +AZ? +FAU?x2 =LBSU –LSU –TCU –FIUx2
TCU? 13-13 (11-6 East) +SCarolina +Stetson +LMU =GCU -Hawaii -CalPoly -USC -LSU -FAUx2 -UNF -Tulane
TCU may have a shot with a strong finish if they have a good region SoS. Will check other TCU criteria next week.

**East bid 3 criteria comparisons:

FIU vs Stetson:
RegionRec = FIU (11-3 with 2 SigWins and 0 bad loss vs 17-5 with 1 SigWin and 1 bad loss)

Head2Head = FIU (twice)

CommonOpps (region) = tie (+FIU if they beat TCU/LSU/FSU in CCSA. +Stetson if FIU loses to SCarolina/FAU/GSU/Tulane)

SoS (region) = FIU 0.5900 to 0.5200

OverallRec = Stetson

Stetson cannot catch FIU barring a bad loss or two to catch up in RegRec and CommOpps.


FIU vs SCarolina:
RegionRec = FIU (11-3 with 2 SigWins and 0 bad loss vs 13-7 with 1 SigWin (I'd count LSU as 2 SigWins) and 2 bad loss

Head2Head = tie (have not played)

CommonOpps (region) = FIU (2-1) +Stetson +FAU -LSU (FIU can add by beating TCU/LSU/FSU while SCarolina needs to beat FSU or hope FIU loses to lower teams.

SoS (region) = FIU barely .5900 to .5700 (this may change based on how past opponents fare and CCSA)

OverallRec = SCarolina

FIU just needs to beat FAU in regular season and SCarolina in CCSA (or avoid playing them). Even if FIU loses to SCarolina, they *should* earn East #3 if they beat lower teams and have a similar draw for SoS purposes. Unless SCarolina beats LSU/FSU.

Key:
+ indicates a win
= indicates a split
- indicates a loss
? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) be under consideration for a bid at end of season

Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently.

[sandyfan]

Totally agree. South Carolina spit the bit this weekend.Could have easily beat LSU winning 1st game in 4 of 5 matches. Their coach FINALLY made a change by splitting the 3's but it was 1 game too late and they lost to TCU. No idea how the conference tournament is going to be run in 2 weeks with 12 teams instead of 8 but I gotta think if they can get to the semi's on Sunday they will be in decent shape for at least an at large. FIU is going to skate in by avoiding bad losses but can they get an at large without a decent win?

[sonofdogman]

Apr 7, 2019 19:39:07 GMT -5 sandyfan said:

... No idea how the conference tournament is going to be run in 2 weeks with 12 teams instead of 8...

I got you.

4 pools of 3 teams each play round robin. Everyone makes bracket play.

Winner of each pool gets bye to quarterfinal round; 2nd & 3rd place teams will be matched up for first round of bracket pay.

Almost certain that FSU, LSU, FIU & S. Carolina will all be separated for pool play but maybe FAU or TCU could finish strong and be a top seed in a pool?

Here's what I don't know - if the bracket will be preset or is reseeded after pool play, and how any 3 way ties in pool will be broken.

[trollhunter]

Apr 7, 2019 19:39:07 GMT -5 sandyfan said:

Totally agree. South Carolina spit the bit this weekend.Could have easily beat LSU winning 1st game in 4 of 5 matches. Their coach FINALLY made a change by splitting the 3's but it was 1 game too late and they lost to TCU. No idea how the conference tournament is going to be run in 2 weeks with 12 teams instead of 8 but I gotta think if they can get to the semi's on Sunday they will be in decent shape for at least an at large. FIU is going to skate in by avoiding bad losses but can they get an at large without a decent win?

You are right that FIU needs to focus on East bid #3, as At-Large is problematic.

Their 2 wins over Stetson are as good as anyone else (except SCarolina). They have a great SoS but bad W/L record. Their loss to Hawaii is real problem as they lose H2H and CommonOpps to a couple contenders due to that.

[trollhunter]

Apr 7, 2019 20:25:51 GMT -5 sonofdogman said:

Apr 7, 2019 19:39:07 GMT -5 sandyfan said:

... No idea how the conference tournament is going to be run in 2 weeks with 12 teams instead of 8...

I got you.

4 pools of 3 teams each play round robin. Everyone makes bracket play.

Winner of each pool gets bye to quarterfinal round; 2nd & 3rd place teams will be matched up for first round of bracket pay.

Almost certain that FSU, LSU, FIU & S. Carolina will all be separated for pool play but maybe FAU or TCU could finish strong and be a top seed in a pool?

Here's what I don't know - if the bracket will be preset or is reseeded after pool play, and how any 3 way ties in pool will be broken.

Do you know how the pools are seeded? CofC has a gaudy record and could be placed ahead of one of those team's

[sonofdogman]

Apr 7, 2019 21:52:22 GMT -5 trollhunter said:

Apr 7, 2019 20:25:51 GMT -5 sonofdogman said:

I got you.

4 pools of 3 teams each play round robin. Everyone makes bracket play.

Winner of each pool gets bye to quarterfinal round; 2nd & 3rd place teams will be matched up for first round of bracket pay.

Almost certain that FSU, LSU, FIU & S. Carolina will all be separated for pool play but maybe FAU or TCU could finish strong and be a top seed in a pool?

Here's what I don't know - if the bracket will be preset or is reseeded after pool play, and how any 3 way ties in pool will be broken.

Do you know how the pools are seeded? CofC has a gaudy record and could be placed ahead of one of those team's

Hmmm, that would be interesting. I do not know how the pools will be seeded. CCSA has next to nothing posted - only dates and location. No info on schedule, match times, admission prices, television coverage, etc. can be found.

My info on the event comes from conversations with several of the head coaches, including discussing how those top 4 teams would not have to face any of the other three in pool play like they have had to in previous years, when there were just two pools.

It may remain a mystery, even to them, until the press release showing the pool composition.

I'll see 1 more CCSA head coach this week and will try to get more details.