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Post by trollhunter on Mar 27, 2019 21:38:05 GMT -5
I disagree about Carolinas chances being slim. If they get to 20-7 with 2 top 5 wins I think they have an excellent chance to over come either Stetson or FIU especially if neither of those 2 pick up a big win this weekend. We agree on South Carolina. I just included them since they were on my prior "Almost Out" list before they beat USC. They are definitely in contention now. I could have worded my last post better. |
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 28, 2019 11:41:11 GMT -5
Any thoughts on College or Charleston. Very weak schedule so far but currently 12-0. CofC could go on my LONG SHOTS list, but not going to bother. They would need to beat SCarolina at end of regular season, then make it to CCSA final beating LSU or FSU plus FIU, FAU and maybe SCarolina again. Since they struggled with average UNF (only decent team on schedule), I can't see them winning more than 1 or 2 of those matches. CofC has beaten 6 D2 teams, 5 weak DI teams, and 1 D3 team. Their Strength of Schedule is terrible and will lose that criteria to everyone. Even if they finish at 20-3 they will also lose H2H and/or CommOpps categories to almost all contenders (losses to those contenders listed above). They are the perfect example of why the NCAA includes significant wins in the RegionRecord criteria. And why Strength of Schedule is a criteria by itself. |
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 29, 2019 15:43:42 GMT -5
Huge matches in Miami.Question: If Stetson loses all their matches above does it change the perception? What about FIU? You called it! We will have to wait til the end of weekend, but there will be a shakeup in bubble teams with Stetson moving down and FIU up. |
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Post by sandyfan on Mar 29, 2019 15:53:15 GMT -5
Now if FIU loses to LSU,FSU, and UCLA what happens? Schadenfreude lives on.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 29, 2019 16:34:00 GMT -5
Now if FIU loses to LSU,FSU, and UCLA what happens? Schadenfreude lives on. FIU just lost to LSU. I think FIU moves into East #3 and Stetson falls into At-Large comparisons. But still a lot of play left and many contenders. |
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Post by badbunny on Mar 30, 2019 5:41:10 GMT -5
Was FIU’s win over Stetson their first, and only, top 10 win this season (thus far at least)?
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 31, 2019 13:11:46 GMT -5
Was FIU’s win over Stetson their first, and only, top 10 win this season (thus far at least)? Well yes, kind of. They have beaten Stetson twice now. However "top 10 win" is not a NCAA criteria. They specifically do not use AVCA poll cuz it is a piece of crap. Significant wins (and losses) is included as part of the Region Record and Overall Record categories. Significant wins are versus teams already qualified for tournament (i.e top 5 seeds are locked now) or teams that are "under consideration" which typically means the top 6 from each region. Could be more or less, it is at committee discretion. |
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 31, 2019 13:53:29 GMT -5
Week 6 – NCAA bids projections, seeding and criteria comparisons
Seed-team name-NCAA bid-significant wins
1. UCLA - West bid 1 (beaten everyone)
2. USC - West bid 2 (beaten everyone except –UCLA, -SCarolina, =Pep)
3. FSU – East bid 1 (=LSU +SCarolina x2 +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +LBSU, +Stetson)
4. LSU – East bid 2 (=FSU =SCarolina +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +Stetson +FIU)
5. PEP – West bid 3 (+Hawaiix2 +LBSU +CalPoly +LMU? +FIU, =USC)
6. FIU – East bid 3 (+Stetsonx2 +FAU? –LSU –FSU –USCx2 –Hawaii)
7. CalPoly? - At-Large bid 1 (really depends on how they finish and BW tournament)
8. Scarolina? - At-Large bid 2 (really depends on how everyone finishes)
TOP 5 SEEDS – Are locked via good SOS, good records, H2H wins, CommOpp wins. In theory, LSU could move above FSU or below PEP.
EAST BID 3 - Team comparisons follow in next post.
AT-LARGE bids - will post comparisons tonight or tomorrow.
Key:
+ indicates a win
= indicates a split
- indicates a loss
? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) be under consideration for a bid at end of season
Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 31, 2019 14:18:46 GMT -5
East bid 3 resumes:
FIU 11-8 (10-2 East) +Stetsonx2 +FAU? –LSU –USCx2 –Hawaii
SCarolina 13-6 (11-5 East) +USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly
Stetson 16-8 (13-5 East) +SCarolina +LMU? +AZ? +FAU?x2 =LBSU –LSU –TCU –FIUx2
East bid 3 criteria comparisons:
FIU vs SCarolina: FIU wins +SoS +RegRec, loses -OvRec, splits =CommOpps =H2H (have not played)
FIU vs Stetson: FIU wins +SoS +H2H +RegRec, loses -OvRec, splits =CommOpps
FIU just needs to beat GSU + FAUx2 in regular season and SCarolina in CCSA to earn East bid #3
Stetson cannot catch FIU barring a bad loss or two to catch up in RegRec and CommOpps.
SCarolina needs to almost win out to catch FIU (unless FIU stumbles), including beating them H2H.
---based on their inconsistent season I doubt it happens
However, if FIU loses to GSU, FAU or a lower team in CCSA, it is wide open for East #3 again.
Key:
+ indicates a win
= indicates a split
- indicates a loss
? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) be under consideration for a bid at end of season
Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 31, 2019 20:45:04 GMT -5
AT-LARGE RESUMES and key matches left on schedule:
CalPoly 15-6 (+SCarolina +Hawaii +TCU? =LMU? –LBSU -LSU)
GCUx2, Calx2, AZ, Pep, USC, BWTournament
Hawaii 18-7 (+FIU +LBSU +Cal?x2 +TCU? +GCU? –LSU -CalPoly)
LMUx2, BWTournament
LBSU 15-5 (+CalPoly +LMU? =Stetson -Hawaii)
USC, Cal, GCU
SCarolina 13-6 +USC =LSU -Stetson –FAU –CalPoly
LSU, TCU, CCSA tournament
Stetson 16-8 +SCarolina +LMU +AZ +FAU?x2 =LBSU –LSU –TCU –FIUx2
FIU (maybe, 3rd match is on Stetson schedule but not FIU’s)
I have CalPoly as favorite to earn an At-Large because of best SoS in group, and most chances to improve resume.
I have South Carolina next, for same reasons, but it is very close.
Other contenders could easily pass them in final weeks.
It really depends on who finishes stronger.
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Post by newbeach on Mar 31, 2019 20:47:09 GMT -5
How are the East vs West at-large teams comparing? Just wondering if there is a chance that there are two bids from the West or two from the East? I know the committee appeared to have set a precedence last year when Cal Poly was snubbed.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 31, 2019 20:48:10 GMT -5
How are the East vs West at-large teams comparing? Just wondering if there is a chance that there are two bids from the West or two from the East? I know the committee appeared to have set a precedence last year when Cal Poly was snubbed. I can't do comparisons yet, too many variables. LSU was clearly better than CalPoly last year, there was no precedent. The problem last year was FIU and LSU were close for East Region bid 3 (slightly different criteria) and everyone expected LSU to get East bid 3 and FIU would not compare well in At-Large |
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Post by sandyfan on Mar 31, 2019 20:51:03 GMT -5
Was FIU’s win over Stetson their first, and only, top 10 win this season (thus far at least)? Well yes, kind of. They have beaten Stetson twice now. However "top 10 win" is not a NCAA criteria. They specifically do not use AVCA poll cuz it is a piece of crap. Significant wins (and losses) is included as part of the Region Record and Overall Record categories. Significant wins are versus teams already qualified for tournament (i.e top 5 seeds are locked now) or teams that are "under consideration" which typically means the top 6 from each region. Could be more or less, it is at committee discretion. I think if the committee looks at SIGNIFICANT wins then Carolina should be in very good shape. The only losses in the "locked top 5 seeds" have all come to each other except for Carolina's wins over LSU and USC. I suspect the CCSA tourny will be the deciding factor. |
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 31, 2019 21:34:34 GMT -5
I know the committee appeared to have set a precedence last year when Cal Poly was snubbed. 2018 At-Large Comparison LSU versus CalPoly H2H = LSU SOS = LSU CommOpp = tie OvRec = CalPoly LSU edge 2-1-1 |
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 31, 2019 21:56:57 GMT -5
How are the East vs West at-large teams comparing? Just wondering if there is a chance that there are two bids from the West or two from the East? There are 5 teams plus possibly FIU and some fringe teams like Cal competing for 2 At-Large spots. It is very close among all of them. Too many variables left to go through all comparisons that will just change in a week or two. Some thoughts on At-Large criteria: Head to Head: SCarolina loses this to CalPoly and Stetson, the rest are split Common Opponents: this is crazy where A beats B beats C beats D beats A Strength Of Schedule: FIU/CalPoly lead, then SCarolina/Stetson, last is Hawaii/LBSU Overall Record (including significant wins and losses): SCar leads via USC/LSU, others are all close. Some thoughts on each team: CalPoly: best SoS, many chances to improve OvRec with SigWins in remaining schedule. SCarolina: best OvRec counting SigWins, remaining schedule has LSU and at least a couple good teams in CCSA. Hawaii: poor SoS due to Nebraska x3, 2nd in OvRec via FIU win but can't improve much, must beat LMU and win BW. LBSU: poor SoS, must beat Cal/GCU, must also beat USC or win BW. Stetson: average in all criteria. Need to win out and hope other contenders split or get bad losses. FIU: bestest SoS, but worst OvRec, lose H2H to Hawaii and just ok in CommOpps. Likely out if they don't win East bid #3 or pull upsets in CCSA. |
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