|
Post by newbeach on Mar 17, 2019 15:12:54 GMT -5
There still could be movement with the West #3 seed. Hawai'i vs. Pepperdine re-match next week could be a big game. Hawai'i still to play Cal Poly, LBSU (a couple of times), USC and LMU. They have a win over FIU as well. If they beat Pepperdine on the re-match it will make the West #3 seed interesting.
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 17, 2019 15:16:23 GMT -5
There still could be movement with the West #3 seed. Hawai'i vs. Pepperdine re-match next week could be a big game. Hawai'i still to play Cal Poly, LBSU (a couple of times), USC and LMU. They have a win over FIU as well. If they beat Pepperdine on the re-match it will make the West #3 seed interesting. Yes, you could be right. I am just listing where things currently stand. However, Hawaii would basically need to win all those matches you listed (except for USC) just to tie Peps resume. And hope Pep loses some, or at least doesn't improve their own resume.
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 19, 2019 11:54:30 GMT -5
Week 5 - key matches with NCAA bid implicationsWest region teams have several key matchups this week. *WEST*USC vs Pep 3-2 USC vs Hawaii 4-1 Pep vs Hawaii 3-2 Pep vs LBSU 5-0 Hawaii vs GCU 3-2 Cal vs St. Mary's 5-0 *EAST*FSU vs Stetson 4-1 Stetson vs FAU doubleheader 4-1 Stetson vs FAU doubleheader 3-2 *AT-LARGE*FSU vs Arizona 4-1 Stetson vs Arizona 3-2 Let me know if any are missing. For dates/times/locations go here: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/76627/2019-season-results-midweek-schedule?page=16#ixzz5idUueaJH
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 20, 2019 13:09:46 GMT -5
Had someone PM me about why I am just listing Significant Wins instead of all criteria and thought I would share for all.
I will list all criteria here in a couple weeks, once the contenders and pretenders are more distinct. Lots of bubble teams now.
I'm currently listing just SigWins because they affect *ALL* criteria:
RegRec is not just win %, it also includes significant wins and losses.
H2H is a SigWin (or SigLoss) versus another contender.
CommOpps is usually a combination of SigWins and SigLosses versus other contenders.
SoS is least affected, but SigWins are versus teams with winning records so they help SoS. Even a SigLoss helps SoS.
OvRec is not just win %, it also includes significant wins and losses. (Winning 85% of matches versus weak teams is *worse* than winning 70% versus strong teams. Basically RPI)
Hope that explains why.
|
|
|
Post by bddad on Mar 22, 2019 10:29:52 GMT -5
Here is a list of the NCAA schools and Regions (East - 45 teams / West - 30 teams):
EAST REGION
Abilene Christian University University of Alabama at Birmingham Austin Peay State University Carson-Newman University University of Central Arkansas College of Charleston (South Carolina) Coastal Carolina University Eastern Kentucky University Eckerd College Florida Atlantic University Florida Gulf Coast University Florida International University Florida Southern College Florida State University Georgia State University Houston Baptist University Huntingdon College Jacksonville State University Jacksonville University Lincoln Memorial University University of Louisiana at Monroe Louisiana State University Mercer University Mississippi State University Missouri State University Morehead State University University of Nebraska, Lincoln University of New Orleans Nicholls State University University of North Alabama University of North Carolina Wilmington University of North Florida Principia College Saint Leo University University of South Carolina, Columbia Spring Hill College Stetson University Stevenson University University of Tampa University of Tennessee at Martin Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi Texas A&M University-Kingsville Texas Christian University Tulane University Tusculum University
WEST REGION
University of Arizona Arizona State University Boise State University California Polytechnic State University California State University, Bakersfield California State University, Los Angeles California State University, Northridge California State University, Sacramento University of California, Berkeley University of California, Davis University of California, Los Angeles Colorado Mesa University Concordia University Irvine Grand Canyon University University of Hawaii, Manoa Long Beach State University Loyola Marymount University University of New Mexico University of Oregon University of the Pacific Pepperdine University University of Portland University of San Francisco San Jose State University Santa Clara University University of Southern California Saint Mary’s College of California Stanford University University of Utah University of Washington
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 23, 2019 10:54:28 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 24, 2019 20:06:30 GMT -5
Week 5 – NCAA bids projections, seeding and significant wins
Not much changed since last week, but I am now looking at remaining schedules for SoS, chances to improve, etc. - not just where they stand now.
Seed-team name-NCAA bid-significant wins 1. UCLA - West bid 1 (beaten everyone) 2. USC - West bid 2 (beaten everyone except -UCLA and -SCarolina) 3. FSU – East bid 1 (=LSU +SCarolina x2 +FAU? +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +LBSU, +Stetson -USC -UCLA) 4. LSU – East bid 2 (=FSU =SCarolina +FAU? +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly -USC -UCLA) 5. PEP – West bid 3 (+Hawaiix2 +LBSU +CalPoly +LMU? +FIU -FSU -LSU -USC -UCLAx3) 6. Stetson or FIU (close in criteria for East bid #3) 7. CalPoly (Hawaii and LBSU have best chances to replace them) 8. SCarolina or Stetson/FIU loser.
Seeds 1-5 are locks via SoS, H2H, CommOpps. FSU and LSU could theoretically swap spots. Seed 6 is very close between FIU and Stetson for East bid #3. Big weekend matches for both teams. Seed 7 is basically a coin toss between the West contenders for At-Large. CalPoly leads them in SoS. Seeds 8 will be whoever finishes stronger between SCarolina and loser of FIU/Stetson comparison.
Stetson (+SCarolina +LMU? +FAU?x2 +AZ? =LBSU -FIU -USC) good SoS, good record FIU (+Stetson +FAU? -USC) good SoS CalPoly (+SCarolina, =LMU?) good SoS Hawaii (+FIU, +Cal?x2 -USC) LBSU (+LMU =Stetson) SCarolina (+USC, =LSU -CalPoly -Stetson -FAU?) only LSU + CCSA left to improve resume
Key: + indicates a win = indicates a split - indicates a loss ? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) turn into a contender
Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently.
|
|
|
Post by n00b on Mar 25, 2019 18:25:06 GMT -5
Week 5 – NCAA bids projections, seeding and significant wins Not much changed since last week, but I am now looking at remaining schedules for SoS, chances to improve, etc. - not just where they stand now. Seed-team name-NCAA bid-significant wins1. UCLA - West bid 1 (beaten everyone) 2. USC - West bid 2 (beaten everyone except -UCLA and -SCarolina) 3. FSU – East bid 1 (=LSU +SCarolina x2 +FAU? +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +LBSU, +Stetson -USC -UCLA) 4. LSU – East bid 2 (=FSU =SCarolina +FAU? +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly -USC -UCLA) 5. PEP – West bid 3 (+Hawaiix2 +LBSU +CalPoly +LMU? +FIU -FSU -LSU -USC -UCLAx3) 6. Stetson or FIU (close in criteria for East bid #3) 7. CalPoly (Hawaii and LBSU have best chances to replace them) 8. SCarolina or Stetson/FIU loser. Seeds 1-5 are locks via SoS, H2H, CommOpps. FSU and LSU could theoretically swap spots. Seed 6 is very close between FIU and Stetson for East bid #3. Big weekend matches for both teams. Seed 7 is basically a coin toss between the West contenders for At-Large. CalPoly leads them in SoS. Seeds 8 will be whoever finishes stronger between SCarolina and loser of FIU/Stetson comparison. Stetson (+SCarolina +LMU? +FAU?x2 +AZ? =LBSU -FIU -USC) good SoS, good record FIU (+Stetson +FAU? -USC) good SoS CalPoly (+SCarolina, =LMU?) good SoS Hawaii (+FIU, +Cal?x2 -USC) LBSU (+LMU =Stetson) SCarolina (+USC, =LSU -CalPoly -Stetson -FAU?) only LSU + CCSA left to improve resume Key: + indicates a win = indicates a split - indicates a loss ? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) turn into a contender Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently. For #7 and #8, why is there the implication that one will be from the west and one from the east? If Cal Poly, Hawaii and Long Beach are close for the #7 spot, why aren't they in consideration for the #8 spot?
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 25, 2019 18:55:03 GMT -5
Week 5 – NCAA bids projections, seeding and significant wins Not much changed since last week, but I am now looking at remaining schedules for SoS, chances to improve, etc. - not just where they stand now. Seed-team name-NCAA bid-significant wins1. UCLA - West bid 1 (beaten everyone) 2. USC - West bid 2 (beaten everyone except -UCLA and -SCarolina) 3. FSU – East bid 1 (=LSU +SCarolina x2 +FAU? +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly +LBSU, +Stetson -USC -UCLA) 4. LSU – East bid 2 (=FSU =SCarolina +FAU? +Pep +Hawaii +CalPoly -USC -UCLA) 5. PEP – West bid 3 (+Hawaiix2 +LBSU +CalPoly +LMU? +FIU -FSU -LSU -USC -UCLAx3) 6. Stetson or FIU (close in criteria for East bid #3) 7. CalPoly (Hawaii and LBSU have best chances to replace them) 8. SCarolina or Stetson/FIU loser. Seeds 1-5 are locks via SoS, H2H, CommOpps. FSU and LSU could theoretically swap spots. Seed 6 is very close between FIU and Stetson for East bid #3. Big weekend matches for both teams. Seed 7 is basically a coin toss between the West contenders for At-Large. CalPoly leads them in SoS. Seeds 8 will be whoever finishes stronger between SCarolina and loser of FIU/Stetson comparison. Stetson (+SCarolina +LMU? +FAU?x2 +AZ? =LBSU -FIU -USC) good SoS, good record FIU (+Stetson +FAU? -USC) good SoS CalPoly (+SCarolina, =LMU?) good SoS Hawaii (+FIU, +Cal?x2 -USC) LBSU (+LMU =Stetson) SCarolina (+USC, =LSU -CalPoly -Stetson -FAU?) only LSU + CCSA left to improve resume For #7 and #8, why is there the implication that one will be from the west and one from the east? If Cal Poly, Hawaii and Long Beach are close for the #7 spot, why aren't they in consideration for the #8 spot? Great question! The main reason is that one of the west teams likely need to sweep the others (or beat USC) to solidify a spot. That would leave the other 2 with very weak resumes and likely out. Playing each other is all that is really left on their schedule to improve their resume. And 2 of the teams have below average SoS. If the 3 West teams all split, there is the possibility 2 get in, OR that none of them make it. Because the 3 East teams are also in contention for both At-Large spots. The East contenders play each other an odd amount of times (once or thrice) so no splits and it is more likely that a couple of teams emerge with stronger resumes. But all the East teams still play top 5 seeds LSU and FSU again (as well as bubble teams) so more chances to improve. And 2 of them have strong SoS. Seeds 6-8 are really wide open. Right now I am guessing that 1 will come from each region, plus East #3, but it really depends on how each individual team finishes.
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 26, 2019 13:57:47 GMT -5
NCAA Beach bids - week 6 key matches with NCAA bid implications UCLA vs LMU 5-0 USC vs. Pep 2-3 Cal Poly vs LBSU 1-4 Cal Poly vs Hawaii Hawaii vs LBSU 5-0 Surf 'n TurfFSU vs GCU 4-1 LSU vs. UCLA 1-4 FIU vs. Stetson 3-2 LSU vs. Stetson 3-2 FIU vs. GCU 3-2 UCLA vs. Stetson 5-0 FIU vs. LSU 2-3 LSU vs. GCU 4-1 FAU vs. GCU 2-3 TCU vs Stetson 3-2 FSU vs. UCLA 1-4 FIU vs. FSU 2-3 FAU vs. LSU 2-3 FIU vs. UCLA 0-5 Full weekend schedule with dates/times/locations is here: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/76627/2019-season-results-weekend-schedule?page=21#ixzz5ja6Az1XF
|
|
|
Post by sandyfan on Mar 26, 2019 14:03:21 GMT -5
Huge matches in Miami.Question: If Stetson loses all their matches above does it change the perception? What about FIU?
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 26, 2019 18:53:49 GMT -5
Huge matches in Miami.Question: If Stetson loses all their matches above does it change the perception? What about FIU? I expect one of FIU / Stetson to move up in the bid race, and the other move down a little. Losing to UCLA/FSU/LSU will not really hurt their resume much, but it is opportunity lost. FIU losing to GCU would be bad for them. However if they can each beat one of those teams above, they could both move up and put a lot of pressure on other contenders. One of them has to win the Stetson vs FIU match, so one will move up. I expect one of CalPoly/Hawaii/LBSU to move up and another move down, but it could be A beats B beats C beats A.
|
|
|
Post by trollhunter on Mar 27, 2019 17:39:04 GMT -5
Update on fringe teams. These are teams that are just outside of NCAA bid considerations, or that are ranked with no chance of a bid.
LONG SHOTS – these teams still have a slim but plausible path to entering the NCAA bid race.
#11 SCarolina 11-6: was on "almost out" list, but win vs +USC made them a contender in East #3 or At-Large. #12 Cal 12-3: must beat 1-2 of UCLA, USC, Pep plus sweep CalPoly and LBSU. 2 losses to Hawaii hurt chances. #13 LMU 11-6: must beat Pep or UCLA, plus sweep Hawaii. And hope nobody else gets hot. Split with =CalPoly. #14 Arizona is out, see below. #15 FAU 7-6*: must beat FSU or LSU, plus sweep FIU and 3rd+ in CCSA. Has a win over +SCarolina #16 GCU 12-3*: must beat 1-2 of UCLA, USC, FSU, LSU plus split with CalPoly and win rest. Hawaii and LMU losses hurt.
OUT OF THE BID RACE (yes they could win out and contenders lose all, but that it is not going to happen)
#14 Arizona 9-4: Has 0 good wins. Terrible SoS. And a loss to Stanford. 0 chance. #17 Stanford 7-10*: Only "good" win is +AZ. 2 losses to St. Mary's but still ranked ahead? Will finish below .500 #18 St. Mary's 9-4*: Beat Stanford, but so has everyone. Weak schedule gives them no chance. #19 GSU 13-9: No good wins. Weak schedule. Rebuilding season. #20 TCU 9-10*: Win vs +LMU, bad loss to UNCW. They play enough contenders to have a slim chance on a huge run, but just finishing above .500 will be a challenge.
|
|
|
Post by xxxxxx on Mar 27, 2019 18:59:27 GMT -5
Any thoughts on College or Charleston. Very weak schedule so far but currently 12-0.
|
|
|
Post by sandyfan on Mar 27, 2019 19:40:59 GMT -5
I disagree about Carolinas chances being slim. If they get to 20-7 with 2 top 5 wins I think they have an excellent chance to over come either Stetson or FIU especially if neither of those 2 pick up a big win this weekend.
|
|