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Post by trollhunter on Mar 3, 2019 15:28:29 GMT -5
The top NCAA teams and bid contenders are now known, just 2 weeks into the season. See the post above this.
There are also several teams virtually eliminated from NCAA bid contention already, despite their AVCA coaches ranking (not used for NCAA bids). See the list below.
*ALMOST OUT*
#10 South Carolina (3-5). Only has Stetson, LSU and CCSA left on East schedule. Must almost win out.
#12 Stanford (2-5). Has many top West teams left on schedule, but must actually beat some to earn a NCAA bid, as opposed to AVCA ranking. Can they even finish above .500 to be considered for NCAA?
#14 Arizona (3-2). Only has CalPoly and PAC12 left on West schedule. Will get some easy wins from weak schedule, and retain AVCA ranking. But will lose Strength of Schedule and Significant Win categories to everyone in NCAA bid comparisons. Must go deep in PAC12 with multiple upsets to maybe steal a bid late.
#16 Georgia State (4-4). Have a few good teams left on East schedule, but have already lost to most of them. Must win almost all just to pull even with teams ahead of them.
#17 Tulane (3-6). Has LSU, Surf & Turf, plus CCSA left on East schedule. Must win almost all just to have a chance and they have not beat anyone yet.
#20 Saint Mary's (2-3). Has LBSU, Cal x2, and LMU/Pep x2 (WCC events) left on West schedule. Likely need to beat LBSU, plus split with Pep, LMU and Cal to have any shot.
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Post by geddyleeridesagain on Mar 3, 2019 17:09:57 GMT -5
Arizona’s problems are twofold: their schedule is pathetic and they’re a bad team. Frankly, given the amount of resources/financial support it receives from U of A, that program should be a whole better than it is.
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Post by sandyfan on Mar 3, 2019 20:20:46 GMT -5
FIU and Stetson have basically only played each other so far. Let's see how they do out West next weekend before you give FIU the benefit on the 2 or 3 seed in the East. At least LSU and Carolina have played better competition. BTW, Carolina still has USC on their schedule too.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 4, 2019 1:43:15 GMT -5
FIU and Stetson have basically only played each other so far. Let's see how they do out West next weekend before you give FIU the benefit on the 2 or 3 seed in the East. At least LSU and Carolina have played better competition. BTW, Carolina still has USC on their schedule too. You are right about FIU and Stetson not having played much yet. That is part of SCarolina's problem. SCarolina has played most of the good teams on their schedule and is 1-5 versus them. With just 2 chances + CCSA left to improve in the East. And 1 slim chance left to even be considered for At-Large. The other contenders each have several chances left on their schedule to earn quality wins for both East and At-Large bids. It is still early and my rankings will change from week to week based on results. If the season ended now SCarolina would not be eligible for a NCAA bid with a losing record. |
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 4, 2019 16:31:22 GMT -5
Below is a quick review of the 2019 NCAA Beach tournament selection criteria with my notes in parenthesis.
(these notes derive from chairperson press releases, beach newsletters, committee emails, etc.)
SELECTION CRITERIA
1. Committee will select eight teams.
a. No automatic bids.
b. Best three teams from the East.
c. Best three teams from the West.
d. Best remaining two teams from either region -- at-large selections.
e. Teams will be seeded 1-8.
2. Selection criteria for *Regional bids* into the championship.
a. Regional Record. (including significant wins and losses)
b. Head-to-Head competition.
c. Results versus Common Opponents. (only regional common opponents used here)
d. Strength of Schedule. (math formula for region matches only, not opinion, nor AVCA)
e. Overall Record (including significant wins and losses). Must be .500 or above.
3. Selection criteria for *At-Large bids* into the championship.
a. Head-to-Head competition.
b. Results versus Common Opponents. (all common opponents are compared here)
c. Strength of Schedule. (math formula for all matches, not opinion, nor AVCA)
d. Overall Record (including significant wins and losses). Must be .500 or above.
The criteria are identical from last couple seasons.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 5, 2019 11:02:40 GMT -5
The regular season will be 25% done this weekend! We should have a good idea of At-Large bid leaders and contenders soon. Matches with NCAA bid implications: * AT-LARGE* USC vs FSU (Thurs) 3-2 USC vs Stetson 4-1 LBSU vs FSU 0-5 LBSU vs Stetson (Weds) 4-1 LBSU vs Stetson (Thurs) 2-3 LMU vs Stetson 1-4 East Meets West Challenge at Manhattan Beach: USC vs FIU 3-2 Hawaii vs TCU 4-1 UCLA vs LSU 4-1 Pepperdine vs FSU 1-4 UCLA vs FIU 4-1 USC vs TCU 4-1 Hawaii vs FSU 2-3 Pepperdine vs LSU 2-3 Hawaii vs FIU 4-1 USC vs LSU 4-1 Pepperdine vs TCU 4-1 UCLA vs FSU 4-1 Hawaii vs LSU 1-4 Pepperdine vs FIU 3-2 USC vs FSU 3-2 UCLA vs TCU 5-0 * EAST BIDS* none - did I miss any? * WEST BIDS* UCLA vs PEP 5-0 LBSU vs LMU 3-2 CAL vs Stanford 3-2 Stanford vs St. Mary's 2-3 Link to sandball schedule for exact dates/times/results: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/76627/2019-season-results-midweek-meetings?page=8#ixzz5hPlcW2Km |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2019 15:06:47 GMT -5
Really appreciate you and Sandball doing this trollhunter.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 10, 2019 0:23:21 GMT -5
NCAA BID RANKINGS Week 3 - My best guess based on criteria. Open to discussion.
*AT-LARGE*
1. LBSU / Stetson / Hawaii
2. LBSU / Stetson / Hawaii
X: Scarolina, CalPoly?, GCU?
*EAST REGION*
1. FSU
2. LSU
3. FIU
X: FAU, Stetson, SCarolina, TCU?
*WEST REGION*
1. UCLA
2. USC
3. PEP
X: Hawaii, LBSU, Cal, CalPoly, GCU?, LMU?
Some explanation and details in the next post.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 11, 2019 0:39:09 GMT -5
NCAA Bids - Week 3 Recap
*EAST REGION*
FSU and LSU got some good wins versus strong teams that puts them solidly 1 & 2 in East, far ahead of competitors. They will be hard to catch.
FIU did not help their resume, allowing FAU and Stetson to creep closer.
SCarolina's win over LSU is looking better, but not enough by itself. Crucial matches versus Stetson and LSU in next couple weeks.
*WEST REGION*
UCLA and USC cemented themselves as 1 & 2 in West (and overall), with strong weekends versus good competition. Both will be hard to catch barring a meltdown.
PEP kept just ahead of Hawaii with similar wins.
LBSU, Cal and CalPoly could all join the race as they play teams listed above this week.
*AT-LARGE*
Hawaii, LBSU and Stetson all picked up key cross-region wins that will help them in the At-Large race. They also have several chances to improve their resumes over next few weeks.
SCarolina has a good win over LSU, but very limited chances to improve their resume. They need to win those, get a good draw in CCSA and hope others lose.
The other region contenders can still enter the At-Large race too, they are not far behind on either region or at-large races.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 11, 2019 18:10:09 GMT -5
NCAA Bids - Week 4 key matchups * WEST* UCLA vs Pep 5-0 Pep vs CalPoly 3-2 Pep vs LMU 5-0 Hawaii vs Cal (Sat) 3-2 Hawaii vs Cal (Sun) 3-2 CalPoly vs LMU (Wed) 1-4 CalPoly vs LMU (Sat) 3-2 * EAST* FIU vs FAU 4-1 SCarolina vs Stetson 1-4 * AT-LARGE* USC vs SCarolina 2-3 USC vs FAU 4-1 USC vs FIU 4-1 Pep vs TCU 5-0 LMU vs TCU 2-3 This weekend has some huge matches for teams on the fringes of NCAA bids. sandball has the complete schedule with days/times/locations here: volleytalk.proboards.com/thread/76627/2019-season-results-midweek-schedule?page=13#ixzz5hz83yCEg |
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Post by robonthemic on Mar 12, 2019 1:05:35 GMT -5
Was covering about half the matches on Saturday for the East Meets West Challenge. Good crowd on hand so I was only able to get to courts 1 & 2 (and a little bit of 3). IF I can find the time I'll post my other videos, but I thought I'd start with UCLA (McNamara/McNamara) vs. LSU (Nuss/Coppolla)...
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 13, 2019 15:21:03 GMT -5
Was covering about half the matches on Saturday for the East Meets West Challenge. Good crowd on hand so I was only able to get to courts 1 & 2 (and a little bit of 3). IF I can find the time I'll post my other videos, but I thought I'd start with UCLA (McNamara/McNamara) vs. LSU (Nuss/Coppolla)... Good quality and nice close video! Please share the others when you have time! |
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Post by robonthemic on Mar 13, 2019 23:24:07 GMT -5
Since I was working one of the courts (pxp) I couldn't get too much video from today's Waves' Invite/p1440 at Zuma Beach. This is from the #1's match between Cal Poly's Chrissy Jones/Tiadora Miric and Pepperdine's Deahna Kraft/Brooke Bauer. I was surprised when I didn't see Torrey Van Winden there for Cal Poly. She is a monster offensively/defensively.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 16, 2019 12:30:41 GMT -5
Since I was working one of the courts (pxp) I couldn't get too much video from today's Waves' Invite/p1440 at Zuma Beach. This is from the #1's match between Cal Poly's Chrissy Jones/Tiadora Miric and Pepperdine's Deahna Kraft/Brooke Bauer. I was surprised when I didn't see Torrey Van Winden there for Cal Poly. She is a monster offensively/defensively. More please! |
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 17, 2019 14:50:45 GMT -5
Week 4 – current NCAA bids estimates, seeding and significant wins
NCAA seed - team name - NCAA bid - significant wins
1. UCLA - West bid 1 (beaten everyone)
2. USC - West bid 2 (beaten everyone except UCLA and SCarolina)
3. FSU – East bid 1 (=LSU +SCarolina x2 +FAU? +Pepperdine +Hawaii +CalPoly +LBSU)
4. LSU – East bid 2 (=FSU =SCarolina +FAU? +Pepperdine +Hawaii +CalPoly)
5. PEP – West bid 3 (+Hawaii +LBSU +CalPoly +LMU? +FIU)
6. Stetson/SCarolina/FIU - East bid 3 – see below
7. AtLarge bid 1 – see below
8. AtLarge bid 2 – see below
East bid 3 / At-Large bid
Stetson (+SCarolina, =LBSU, +LMU?)
SCarolina (=LSU +USC)
FIU (+Stetson, +FAU?)
FAU? (+SCarolina)
At-Large bid
CalPoly (+SCarolina, =LMU?)
LBSU (=Stetson. +LMU)
Hawaii (+FIU, +Cal? x2)
LMU? (+CalPoly)
Seeds 1-5 are solid, I expect little or no movement from them over the next few weeks.
Seed 6 is very close but Stetson may have the edge in criteria at the moment.
Seed 7 is currently probably SCarolina but just barely. Lots of volleyball left to be played.
Seed 8 is a coin toss between the West contenders for At-Large now.
Seeds 7-8 are wide open as most of the teams are near .500 and just 1-2 good wins.
Let me know if I missed anything or you see it differently.
+ indicates a win
= indicates a split
? indicates an opponent that may (or may not) turn into a contender
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