Post by n00b on Nov 11, 2019 13:46:01 GMT -5
Interestingly, the Strength or Record rankings I'm playing around with REALLY dislike Wisconsin. To the point where I had to make sure I didn't have an error in their record or schedule. All the way down at #15. And these are Pablo-based. So it's very interesting that Pablo thinks that they're a top team in the country (I'm guessing they'll drop to #3 this week), yet is so unimpressed with their match record.
I don't think you understand how it works.
1) Create a power rating (Pablo for volleyball, BPI for basketball, FPI for football)
2) Compare a team's results against how a generic Top 4* team would do against the same schedule.
So Wisconsin's Pablo doesn't matter to their SOR ranking. Their opponents' Pablo rankings do. What this does an excellent job of reflecting is that when comparing teams for a top 4 seed, it really doesn't matter if they beat #126 Colgate (who has 20 wins) or #334 Merrimack (0 wins), because Top 4 teams should beat both 100% of the time.
Here's the 16. Then, the record a team with a 7200 Pablo would have against their schedule (close to where the #4 team would usually be), then by how many matches that team has exceeded that expectation by. This counting is not really how the calculation is done, but gives you the right idea.
1. Baylor (17-4: +3)
2. Pittsburgh (23-3: +2)
3. Minnesota (17-5: +2)
4. Texas (15-4: +2)
5. Stanford (16-6: +2)
6. Nebraska (18-5: +2)
7. Washington (17-7: +2)
8. Penn State (18-5: +1)
9. Colorado State (23-2: +1)
10. Florida (19-4: +1)
11. BYU (22-3: +0)
12. Western Kentucky (26-1: +0)
13. Cal (20-4: +0)
14. Marquette (23-3: +0)
15. Wisconsin (17-5: +0)
16. Hawaii (22-3: +0)
So according to Pablo, Wisconsin has exactly the record you'd expect from a team with a 7200 rating and their schedule. Baylor has outperformed what would be expected by that Average Top 4 Team by 3 matches.
*Since there is a big gap in quality between Top 4 teams and bubble teams, I actually run this for a Top 4 Pablo (7200), Top 16 (6700), Top 50 (6000) and Top 100 (5450) and blend those results.