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Post by postitagain2 on Apr 20, 2020 9:17:09 GMT -5
The following is a breakdown of Cal Poly’s schedule last year, results and how it affected their RPI. It does not include the impact of an Opponents’ Opponents Winning Percentage, because that would entail looking at about 900 different match results. I also used the last RPI released last year so it includes NCAA matches. Technically a team would build its schedule to maximize their opportunities to get an at-large bid. In other words before NCAA matches. Since this is an itemized example of how a schedule and the match results impact your RPI, it doesn’t affect what’s being demonstrated herein, but I wanted to disclose the fact. Cal Poly is a good example of smart scheduling and demonstrates how RPI is calculated.
OOC - Cal Poly scheduled 7 Top 75 teams out of 12 matches so they earned the OOC Double Bonus. They went 7-5 in OOC. At 6-6, this would have been a wash in their standard RPI calculation. At 7-5 it was a small plus. Additionally, no OOC Match was with a 260 RPI team or above and therefore you set your team up for zero chances of taking an OOC Penalty. On the flip side, 5 matches were against Top 50 teams, giving yourself 5 shots at a Bonus. Cal Poly converted one of those beating Utah for a Double Bonus. This was a great OOC schedule.
5 Pitt (30-2) - any team who had Pitt on their schedule last year got a huge benefit from their Winning Percentage which contributed to 50% of their standard PRI calculation. 9 KY (26-7) - benefited from this Opponents Win%. 17 Utah (24-10) - played twice. Beat them once and got a Double Bonus for that win. Benefited from this Opponents Win%. 27 CO St (29-2) - like Pitt, anyone with CO St on their schedule got a huge benefit from their Win%. 57 Pepperdine (18-11) - benefited from this Opponents Win %. 72 No CO (26-8) - benefited from this Opponents Win % 115 No TX (17-12) - benefited from this Opponents Win% 123 Wichita St (9-19) - took a hit from this Opponents Win% 141 St Mary’s (11-17) - took a hit from this Opponents Win % 148 Oregon St (9-22) - took a big hit from this Opponents Win % 225 San Jose St (10-19) - took a big hit from this Opponents Win%
Conference - You don’t control this part of your schedule, but control your results. Cal Poly went 13-3 which contributed to its Win % which is 25% of its standard RPI calculation. Cal Poly also picked up two Bonuses in conference, beating 12 Hawaii for a Double Bonus and 29 UCSB for a Single Bonus. Many good mid-major programs don’t have a conference strong enough to have Bonus opportunities in this part of their schedule. UNI was one of those teams last year. The only bonuses available in conference is a Double for beating an RPI 1-25 team and a Single Bonus for beating a team 26-50. Last year UNI was 44 and the closest next team was ILL St at 78. That’s the norm in the Valley. Occasionally there is a pleasant surprise exception. So UNI has to schedule the most brutal OOC schedule they can to have any chance at a Bonus. Cal Poly plays each of their conference foes twice a year. And the norm for them is they always have Bonus opportunities within the Big West. Additionally, within conference, there were two teams and four matches that could have resulted in a Penalty. Cal Poly avoided that by winning those four matches.
12 Hawaii (26-4) - huge benefit from this Opponents Win %. Earned a Double Bonus with one win over this Opponent. 29 UCSB (23-6) - huge benefit from this Opponents Win %. Earned a Single Bonus with one win over this Opponent. 124 Long Beach St (12-17) - took a hit from this Opponents Win %. 131 UC Davis (17-13) - benefited from this Opponents Win %. 164 CSUN (12-16) - took a hit from this Opponents Win %. 208 Cal St Fullerton (12-15) - took a hit from this Opponents Win %. 268 UC Irvine (5-23) - took a big hit from this Opponents Win %. 283 UC Riverside (6-22) - took a big hit from this Opponents Win %.
Added Note: now that I’ve posted this, of course it goes to a new page...I was expecting you would be able to reference the RPI calculations by simple scrolling up. It’s never simple. Sorry you have to click back and forth between pages 2 and 3.
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Apr 20, 2020 10:02:01 GMT -5
I like that the top teams are rewarded for playing against one another, but don't like that they get dinged for playing an in state out of conference rival that might be a little down on their luck.
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Post by postitagain2 on Apr 20, 2020 10:30:20 GMT -5
I like that the top teams are rewarded for playing against one another, but don't like that they get dinged for playing an in state out of conference rival that might be a little down on their luck. Point of reference. Every team is going to have 4-6 of these matches ever year. Think about most of those OOC weekend tournaments. Many have 4 teams with one of those teams clearly a weaker team. Plus every conference also usually has 2-4 teams that have bad seasons. Because this is pretty universal, it’s part of everyone’s RPI calculation and is basically a wash in the end. Therefore it’s not really hurting any top level team if they manage these matches to 4-6 per year. The impact and critical scheduling affects good mid-major programs the most, especially if their conference doesn’t consistently produce 2-3 teams in the top 50. It also affects teams from the P5+1 conferences that end up on the cut line on Selection Sunday because they finished middle of the pack in their conference. What they scheduled a OOC and the results can sink their NCAA bid chances. It’s always a crap shoot for these teams to read the tea leaves and try to schedule programs based on last year and historical performances and hope they perform as well this coming season. This year it’s even worse with the virus. A lot of teams take that 4th weekend of OOC to schedule the softest of their OOC schedule so they can pick up some wins and get on a roll headed into conference play. This year, there is a chance that some or all of the first three OOC weekends will get cancelled. If that’s the case, will the NCAA count those matches not played in the OOC Bonus calculations? Will teams move their better OOC tournaments to that last weekend to get them in and cancel the softer weekend teams to make room for the better matches? Several years ago some OOC weekend matches got cancelled. I think it was a hurricane. A match Ohio St was expected to win got cancelled. That cancellation kept them out of the NCAAs that year. They ended with a record like 15-16 and since they didn’t win 50% of their matches they were not eligible for consideration even tho they had a RPI that would have gotten them in. If they had played that match, high probability they would have been 16-16 and dancing.
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Post by jake on Apr 20, 2020 10:37:00 GMT -5
Bobbie and her AD staff know exactly what they are doing. DI Volleyball RPI Standard Formula: 1. Team’s Winning Percentage = 25% of RPI 2. Team’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage = 50% of RPI 3. Team’s Opponents’ Opponents’ Winning Percentage = 25% of RPI Modification: For each opponent on a team’s schedule, that opponent’s record does not include the game with the team in question. So after a pair of team’s first game of the year, their Opponents Winning Percentage will both be 0. If you play a team twice, each game, and thereafter each team is counted separately for this calculation. For instance, if a team is 5-2, and you played them twice, Winning one and losing once, one record will be 4-2, while the other will be 5-1. Adjustment Bonuses & Penalties: 1. Double Bonus for wins against RPI teams 1-25. 2. Single Bonus for wins against RPI teams 26-50. 3. Single Penalty for losses between RPI 285-309. 4. Double Penalty for losses RPI 310 and above. 5. Double Bonus for 50% or more of OOC games against RPI 1-75. 6. Double Penalty for 50% or more of OOC games against RPI 260 and above. The bonuses and penalties are added to the standard RPI score of a team, and then teams are reranked using adjusted RPI values. The adjusted RPI is what the NCAA tournament committee uses. I do not know what the Bonus-Penalty value is. OOC games against RPI teams 1-75 are high-value Opponents. If you have 50% or more you get the OOC Double Bonus. If you can beat an RPI 1-50 team you earn more bonus. Plus teams with a RPIs 1-75 are teams that win a high percentage of their own games, and those winning percentages are 50% of your standard RPI calculation. Rankings have zero value in the RPI calculation, although I do believe a couple years ago tournament committees added the resources they could use to set the bracket. Someone else can confirm that or debunk it. Many thanks for all the time it took posting the info on cal. the RPI.
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Post by jake on Apr 20, 2020 10:42:29 GMT -5
The following is a breakdown of Cal Poly’s schedule last year, results and how it affected their RPI. It does not include the impact of an Opponents’ Opponents Winning Percentage, because that would entail looking at about 900 different match results. I also used the last RPI released last year so it includes NCAA matches. Technically a team would build its schedule to maximize their opportunities to get an at-large bid. In other words before NCAA matches. Since this is an itemized example of how a schedule and the match results impact your RPI, it doesn’t affect what’s being demonstrated herein, but I wanted to disclose the fact. Cal Poly is a good example of smart scheduling and demonstrates how RPI is calculated. OOC - Cal Poly scheduled 7 Top 75 teams out of 12 matches so they earned the OOC Double Bonus. They went 7-5 in OOC. At 6-6, this would have been a wash in their standard RPI calculation. At 7-5 it was a small plus. Additionally, no OOC Match was with a 260 RPI team or above and therefore you set your team up for zero chances of taking an OOC Penalty. On the flip side, 5 matches were against Top 50 teams, giving yourself 5 shots at a Bonus. Cal Poly converted one of those beating Utah for a Double Bonus. This was a great OOC schedule. 5 Pitt (30-2) - any team who had Pitt on their schedule last year got a huge benefit from their Winning Percentage which contributed to 50% of their standard PRI calculation. 9 KY (26-7) - benefited from this Opponents Win%. 17 Utah (24-10) - played twice. Beat them once and got a Double Bonus for that win. Benefited from this Opponents Win%. 27 CO St (29-2) - like Pitt, anyone with CO St on their schedule got a huge benefit from their Win%. 57 Pepperdine (18-11) - benefited from this Opponents Win %. 72 No CO (26-8) - benefited from this Opponents Win % 115 No TX (17-12) - benefited from this Opponents Win% 123 Wichita St (9-19) - took a hit from this Opponents Win% 141 St Mary’s (11-17) - took a hit from this Opponents Win % 148 Oregon St (9-22) - took a big hit from this Opponents Win % 225 San Jose St (10-19) - took a big hit from this Opponents Win% Conference - You don’t control this part of your schedule, but control your results. Cal Poly went 13-3 which contributed to its Win % which is 25% of its standard RPI calculation. Cal Poly also picked up two Bonuses in conference, beating 12 Hawaii for a Double Bonus and 29 UCSB for a Single Bonus. Many good mid-major programs don’t have a conference strong enough to have Bonus opportunities in this part of their schedule. UNI was one of those teams last year. The only bonuses available in conference is a Double for beating an RPI 1-25 team and a Single Bonus for beating a team 26-50. Last year UNI was 44 and the closest next team was ILL St at 78. That’s the norm in the Valley. Occasionally there is a pleasant surprise exception. So UNI has to schedule the most brutal OOC schedule they can to have any chance at a Bonus. Cal Poly plays each of their conference foes twice a year. And the norm for them is they always have Bonus opportunities within the Big West. Additionally, within conference, there were two teams and four matches that could have resulted in a Penalty. Cal Poly avoided that by winning those four matches. 12 Hawaii (26-4) - huge benefit from this Opponents Win %. Earned a Double Bonus with one win over this Opponent. 29 UCSB (23-6) - huge benefit from this Opponents Win %. Earned a Single Bonus with one win over this Opponent. 124 Long Beach St (12-17) - took a hit from this Opponents Win %. 131 UC Davis (17-13) - benefited from this Opponents Win %. 164 CSUN (12-16) - took a hit from this Opponents Win %. 208 Cal St Fullerton (12-15) - took a hit from this Opponents Win %. 268 UC Irvine (5-23) - took a big hit from this Opponents Win %. 283 UC Riverside (6-22) - took a big hit from this Opponents Win %. Added Note: now that I’ve posted this, of course it goes to a new page...I was expecting you would be able to reference the RPI calculations by simple scrolling up. It’s never simple. Sorry you have to click back and forth between pages 2 and 3. Ditto my last comment. Certainly will spend my time looking over and getting a better handle.
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Apr 20, 2020 11:15:50 GMT -5
I like that the top teams are rewarded for playing against one another, but don't like that they get dinged for playing an in state out of conference rival that might be a little down on their luck. Point of reference. Every team is going to have 4-6 of these matches ever year. Think about most of those OOC weekend tournaments. Many have 4 teams with one of those teams clearly a weaker team. Plus every conference also usually has 2-4 teams that have bad seasons. Because this is pretty universal, it’s part of everyone’s RPI calculation and is basically a wash in the end. Therefore it’s not really hurting any top level team if they manage these matches to 4-6 per year. The impact and critical scheduling affects good mid-major programs the most, especially if their conference doesn’t consistently produce 2-3 teams in the top 50. It also affects teams from the P5+1 conferences that end up on the cut line on Selection Sunday because they finished middle of the pack in their conference. What they scheduled a OOC and the results can sink their NCAA bid chances. It’s always a crap shoot for these teams to read the tea leaves and try to schedule programs based on last year and historical performances and hope they perform as well this coming season. This year it’s even worse with the virus. A lot of teams take that 4th weekend of OOC to schedule the softest of their OOC schedule so they can pick up some wins and get on a roll headed into conference play. This year, there is a chance that some or all of the first three OOC weekends will get cancelled. If that’s the case, will the NCAA count those matches not played in the OOC Bonus calculations? Will teams move their better OOC tournaments to that last weekend to get them in and cancel the softer weekend teams to make room for the better matches? Several years ago some OOC weekend matches got cancelled. I think it was a hurricane. A match Ohio St was expected to win got cancelled. That cancellation kept them out of the NCAAs that year. They ended with a record like 15-16 and since they didn’t win 50% of their matches they were not eligible for consideration even tho they had a RPI that would have gotten them in. If they had played that match, high probability they would have been 16-16 and dancing. Yeah, I was thinking of BYU when I made that comment, who as a mid-major can't afford to give Utah St a game, even though it is their coach's alma matter. As for OSU, they wound up playing a H-A series with Notre Dame that weekend instead of the tourney that was cancelled, with each team winning their home game. I suppose it is possible that they could have gone 2-1 at that tourney vs ND, Florida Int, and Coastal Carolina, but hardly a given, with ND at a neutral site, and CC as the host team. (OSU of course was fairly mediocre that year)
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Post by postitagain2 on Apr 20, 2020 13:26:59 GMT -5
Ditto my last comment. Certainly will spend my time looking over and getting a better handle. This is really the work of my friend Figgie. He did all the work several years ago to build the RPI model to understand how it works. He spent many hours talking to different people at the NCAA but could never get anyone to give him the Bonus value. Either they didn’t know it or they wouldn’t give it out. (For the new Quad system for men’s basketball, they aren’t giving out any of the calculations.) Anyway, over the years he has adjusted Bonus value trying to lock it down. His model is very close but you will occasionally find a couple teams a couple places off vs the NCAA ranking. The following link takes you to his model. He has built it so you can see the itemized value calculations. He pulls match result from the NCAA . Last year they had problems because they had a new system and I think Figgie has that Note at the top. Hopefully they have the bugs fixed this fall. If so, you can follow his model’s calculation after every match for any team. You can really learn about the RPI by watching 5-10 teams go thru a season. You get half way into the season and one obscure match nobody is paying attention to, can change the calculations for 50 teams. Also, ignore the Home-Away tab. That does not apply to DI Volleyball RPI. ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi
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Post by Riviera Minestrone on Apr 20, 2020 17:32:37 GMT -5
Ditto my last comment. Certainly will spend my time looking over and getting a better handle. This is really the work of my friend Figgie. He did all the work several years ago to build the RPI model to understand how it works. He spent many hours talking to different people at the NCAA but could never get anyone to give him the Bonus value. Either they didn’t know it or they wouldn’t give it out. (For the new Quad system for men’s basketball, they aren’t giving out any of the calculations.) Anyway, over the years he has adjusted Bonus value trying to lock it down. His model is very close but you will occasionally find a couple teams a couple places off vs the NCAA ranking. The following link takes you to his model. He has built it so you can see the itemized value calculations. He pulls match result from the NCAA . Last year they had problems because they had a new system and I think Figgie has that Note at the top. Hopefully they have the bugs fixed this fall. If so, you can follow his model’s calculation after every match for any team. You can really learn about the RPI by watching 5-10 teams go thru a season. You get half way into the season and one obscure match nobody is paying attention to, can change the calculations for 50 teams. Also, ignore the Home-Away tab. That does not apply to DI Volleyball RPI. ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgiWhen I was doing my pre-tournament mockup, I found figstats to be "right there" as far as combining SOS + RPI from cumulative match results. My brackets benefitted!
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Apr 21, 2020 16:16:40 GMT -5
Urbana Blue Knights NCAA D2 Mountain East
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Post by cindra on Apr 21, 2020 17:43:57 GMT -5
Urbana Blue Knights NCAA D2 Mountain East I wonder if schools that planned to play them knew this was happening beforehand. Does that get communicated in back channels before they go public with it?
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Post by jayj79 on Apr 21, 2020 18:08:40 GMT -5
Urbana Blue Knights NCAA D2 Mountain East I wonder if schools that planned to play them knew this was happening beforehand. Does that get communicated in back channels before they go public with it? doubt it. sounds like their own coaches didn't know about it until just before the public announcement.
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
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Schedules
Apr 21, 2020 18:34:07 GMT -5
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Post by trojansc on Apr 21, 2020 18:34:07 GMT -5
I wonder if schools that planned to play them knew this was happening beforehand. Does that get communicated in back channels before they go public with it? doubt it. sounds like their own coaches didn't know about it until just before the public announcement. Crazy time we live in with how information travels. Head coaches and student athletes found out via Twitter/social media when the NCAA season was cancelled.
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Post by vballfreak808 on Apr 22, 2020 14:40:18 GMT -5
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Post by Kingsley on Apr 22, 2020 15:14:32 GMT -5
Strength of schedule RISING LIKE A ROCKET! UCF is a very sensible scheduling choice for the heavyweight teams. The Knights will continue to put together rock-solid seasons.
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Post by DustyDude87 on Apr 22, 2020 19:58:41 GMT -5
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