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Post by cindra on Apr 9, 2020 18:51:31 GMT -5
You're talking authoritatively about how all of these changes will happen. I'm interested in whatever estimates you've seen about crime, suicide, etc. that are making you think this, just so I know you're not massively over-weighing those factors. Again, the professionals have already thought of this. They've talked about opening back up in press conferences and such, but decided against it. I have a weird feeling that the government (which contains both doctors and economists) are more qualified and have better data than some internet rando. The numbers provided by the CDC in my post are not estimates, they were actual deaths from the associated causes for years 2017/2018. They came from years prior to COVID-19, lockdowns, and social distancing.
It is a fact that lockdowns and social distancing have derailed the economy, leading to massive business losses and unemployment in just one month. And not just in the U.S. To the extent that globalization has made us interdependent, lockdowns across the world impact supplies worldwide for essentials. Drugs, PPE, and food for instance flow back and forth across the worlds borders. Shortages and panic and greed induced hoarding becomes part of the pandemic equation. Exacerbated by lockdowns and distancing rules disrupting business, logistics, manufacturing, and inducing distortions in supply chains.
It is a fact that lockdowns and forced social distancing are leading to increased poverty, unemployment, social isolation, stress, shortages of life essentials, mortgages and rents not being paid, higher levels of personal and business debt, dramatically reducing savings, crumbling social support infrastructures, divorce, spouse and child abuse, neglect of the young, the elderly, and the vulnerable, and increasing vulnerability of everyone to crime as either a victim or becoming criminal to survive. All of these will incur a health cost on people and tear away at society. All can induce more proposals for ever more authoritarian dictates to solve. As with the Great Depression, such conditions history teaches us, leads to a loss of independence, loss of freedoms, and a populace willing to entertain the thought of dictators, tyranny, and wars.
Lockdowns and social distancing must be ended as soon as possible. POTUS and our Governors, and the public, need to know to what extent lockdowns and social distancing leading to social isolation is helping in the war against COVID-19. All factors of the disease and treatments must be considered though, one can't assume lockdowns and social distancing is the whole cause of any improvement. Likewise all factors of the negative impacts of extended lockdowns and social isolation on public health and society must be considered and weighed. To the extent they can be modeled, they must be modeled as well.
The equation is not lives versus dollars, but lives versus lives. Lockdowns and social distancing may improve COVID-19 outcomes over the short term, but lockdowns and social isolation over a long-term may at some point cost more lives than it saves.
You are free not to be convinced. I encourage you to seek out and understand all the advice being given by our public health officials to our POTUS and Governors. How do they know how many lives are being saved by lockdowns and social distancing? How do they know how many lives will be lost by collateral damage from lockdowns and social isolation? We the public must know whatever they are being told so we can prepare and we can inform ourselves. We are the ultimate oversight over our policy leaders and we must each decide for ourselves if the benefits of their policies will be worth the cost. Then, vote accordingly.
I understand that the numbers you gave are real numbers. However, your conjectures about how much lives the economic shutdown will cost aren't backed with data. Contrary to what you seem to think, crime has actually dropped in most cities during the past few weeks of lockdown. I'm not sure how other metrics have changed, but again, I guarantee that the people deciding the policy have studied the situation more than you or me. That's the reason they're deciding policy instead of a bunch of people on a volleyball forum. If you have examples of statistics changing to the negative or different estimates of deaths that will occur because of the lockdown, please let me know. Otherwise, don't just assert things that you haven't backed up so far.
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Post by ncugafan68 on Apr 9, 2020 19:05:13 GMT -5
With the worry of a second round/wave this fall/winter, why not start normal and just do away with non-conference matches? Shorten the season on the back end before the weather turns and cold/flu season kicks in.
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Post by justahick on Apr 9, 2020 19:20:18 GMT -5
With the worry of a second round/wave this fall/winter, why not start normal and just do away with non-conference matches? Shorten the season on the back end before the weather turns and cold/flu season kicks in. Any second (or subsequent wave) has nothing to do with the weather.
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Post by mikegarrison on Apr 9, 2020 19:21:56 GMT -5
It seems to me that the economy has already paid a pretty steep price. But ... all the models agree that if you stop too soon, then the disease comes roaring back. What's worse than paying a big price to avoid a lot of deaths from the disease? Paying a big price and then stopping too soon, so you don't even get the benefits of avoiding a lot of deaths from the disease.
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Post by Wolfgang on Apr 9, 2020 19:22:19 GMT -5
COVID19 is dominating the news everywhere but just in the first 2.5 months alone, the top 5 news of 2020 were (off the top of my head):
- Death of Kobe Bryant, Kirk Douglas, and to a lesser extent, Robert Conrad - USA's drone assassination of Iran's General Soleimani + subsequent events, including Iran shooting down a Ukraine commercial airline - Australia's out of control wildfire - President Trump's impeachment + subsequent trial - Parasite, a South Korean film, wins Best Picture at the Oscars becoming the first non-English film to win Best Picture
Practically forgotten by the masses.
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Post by noblesol on Apr 9, 2020 19:40:36 GMT -5
The numbers provided by the CDC in my post are not estimates, they were actual deaths from the associated causes for years 2017/2018. They came from years prior to COVID-19, lockdowns, and social distancing.
It is a fact that lockdowns and social distancing have derailed the economy, leading to massive business losses and unemployment in just one month. And not just in the U.S. To the extent that globalization has made us interdependent, lockdowns across the world impact supplies worldwide for essentials. Drugs, PPE, and food for instance flow back and forth across the worlds borders. Shortages and panic and greed induced hoarding becomes part of the pandemic equation. Exacerbated by lockdowns and distancing rules disrupting business, logistics, manufacturing, and inducing distortions in supply chains.
It is a fact that lockdowns and forced social distancing are leading to increased poverty, unemployment, social isolation, stress, shortages of life essentials, mortgages and rents not being paid, higher levels of personal and business debt, dramatically reducing savings, crumbling social support infrastructures, divorce, spouse and child abuse, neglect of the young, the elderly, and the vulnerable, and increasing vulnerability of everyone to crime as either a victim or becoming criminal to survive. All of these will incur a health cost on people and tear away at society. All can induce more proposals for ever more authoritarian dictates to solve. As with the Great Depression, such conditions history teaches us, leads to a loss of independence, loss of freedoms, and a populace willing to entertain the thought of dictators, tyranny, and wars.
Lockdowns and social distancing must be ended as soon as possible. POTUS and our Governors, and the public, need to know to what extent lockdowns and social distancing leading to social isolation is helping in the war against COVID-19. All factors of the disease and treatments must be considered though, one can't assume lockdowns and social distancing is the whole cause of any improvement. Likewise all factors of the negative impacts of extended lockdowns and social isolation on public health and society must be considered and weighed. To the extent they can be modeled, they must be modeled as well.
The equation is not lives versus dollars, but lives versus lives. Lockdowns and social distancing may improve COVID-19 outcomes over the short term, but lockdowns and social isolation over a long-term may at some point cost more lives than it saves.
You are free not to be convinced. I encourage you to seek out and understand all the advice being given by our public health officials to our POTUS and Governors. How do they know how many lives are being saved by lockdowns and social distancing? How do they know how many lives will be lost by collateral damage from lockdowns and social isolation? We the public must know whatever they are being told so we can prepare and we can inform ourselves. We are the ultimate oversight over our policy leaders and we must each decide for ourselves if the benefits of their policies will be worth the cost. Then, vote accordingly.
I understand that the numbers you gave are real numbers. However, your conjectures about how much lives the economic shutdown will cost aren't backed with data. Contrary to what you seem to think, crime has actually dropped in most cities during the past few weeks of lockdown. I'm not sure how other metrics have changed, but again, I guarantee that the people deciding the policy have studied the situation more than you or me. That's the reason they're deciding policy instead of a bunch of people on a volleyball forum. If you have examples of statistics changing to the negative or different estimates of deaths that will occur because of the lockdown, please let me know. Otherwise, don't just assert things that you haven't backed up so far. "However, your conjectures about how much lives the economic shutdown will cost aren't backed with data."
Response: We both assume that our policy advisors are being provided more relevant data than we are being provided. However, I haven't seen the media or 'experts' demanding to see the models predicting the collateral damage in lives from lockdowns and social distancing. What I've provided are the reasons to believe that extended lockdowns and social isolation lead to loss of life as well of loss of a healthy society. These reasons are sufficient to demand that our policy leaders consider them, weigh them, model them if possible, and inform us of their cost in lives/benefit in lives analysis as relevant data comes in. We the public must have that knowledge so we can prepare, adjust, and have enough information to hold our leaders accountable.
"Contrary to what you seem to think, crime has actually dropped in most cities during the past few weeks of lockdown." Response: Sounds wonderful, but temporary at best. I assume you are wise enough to not believe it can stay that way. Crime won't stay low in these cities if poverty increases, stress increases, businesses are gone, jobs leave, hope leaves, homelessness and drug usage increases.
"I guarantee that the people deciding the policy have studied the situation more than you or me." Response: I would hope so. I expect them to share all that knowledge with the public. We are the ones that they work for, we are the ones whose lives are impacted, we are the ones that must hold them accountable with an informed vote.
"If you have examples of statistics changing to the negative or different estimates of deaths that will occur because of the lockdown, please let me know.: Response: That is what the our public health officials are for. To pick the best models, assure they are being fed the best and most relevant data, and provide our policy leaders and the public with information on all models being used, data being collected, and best advice resulting. However they must provide access to all of it for all the public. After all, we know Totalitarian China hid the truth of their epidemic from their people, and the world, costing how many lives now?
"... don't just assert things that you haven't backed up ..."
Response: Pot, meet kettle.
Final thought: many of us are capable of following the science and the math, and we all have an obligation to try. Even those here on a volleyball forum.
Please, have a wonderful day!
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Post by ncugafan68 on Apr 9, 2020 19:46:01 GMT -5
With the worry of a second round/wave this fall/winter, why not start normal and just do away with non-conference matches? Shorten the season on the back end before the weather turns and cold/flu season kicks in. Any second (or subsequent wave) has nothing to do with the weather. Viruses tend to thrive in cooler/colder environments as well as people’s immune systems tend be weaker.
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Post by akbar on Apr 9, 2020 19:58:06 GMT -5
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Post by justahick on Apr 9, 2020 20:13:10 GMT -5
The virus is thriving in the Southern Hemisphere where it is currently summer.
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Post by n00b on Apr 9, 2020 20:26:49 GMT -5
The virus is thriving in the Southern Hemisphere where it is currently summer. Hmmmm... 1,400 deaths in all of South America. 50 in Australia. 1 in New Zealand. Compared to nearly 5,000 in New York City alone.
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Post by jayj79 on Apr 9, 2020 20:58:22 GMT -5
With the worry of a second round/wave this fall/winter, why not start normal and just do away with non-conference matches? Shorten the season on the back end before the weather turns and cold/flu season kicks in. and in that instance you could cut the NCAA tournament field to just the 32 automatic qualifiers, as there would be absolutely zero objective data for selecting at-large bids.
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Post by oldmanred on Apr 9, 2020 21:05:11 GMT -5
Hope you have poll #44! By then we should be dialled in! GO HUSKERS
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Post by ncugafan68 on Apr 9, 2020 21:12:26 GMT -5
Hope you have poll #44! By then we should be dialled in! GO HUSKERS Or increase the number of automatic qualifiers to the top 3 or 4 from each conference.
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Post by justahick on Apr 9, 2020 21:13:35 GMT -5
The virus is thriving in the Southern Hemisphere where it is currently summer. Hmmmm... 1,400 deaths in all of South America. 50 in Australia. 1 in New Zealand. Compared to nearly 5,000 in New York City alone. Perhaps you are right then, admittedly I hadn't checked the statistics recently - early on their case counts were on similar trajectory.
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Post by ncugafan68 on Apr 9, 2020 21:13:52 GMT -5
Oops. Quoted wrong post. 😁
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