|
Post by dman on Apr 12, 2020 12:40:56 GMT -5
One person I will NEVER argue numbers with is you! I feel the initial concern was the overrun of the hospital system. I’m curious as to what the numbers would have been in strictly being smart with social distancing and those that are elderly or comorbidities to be the ones to self quarantine. Agree the numbers would have been higher but would it have been enough to be worth destroying an economy? An interesting philosophical question. How much value do you place on the lives of your parents or spouse in relation to the macro-economy? I'd wager it's easier to look at this from a fiscal perspective before it affects your loved ones. I know, it does appear morbid...but we actually do this every year.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 12:42:43 GMT -5
An interesting philosophical question. How much value do you place on the lives of your parents or spouse in relation to the macro-economy? I'd wager it's easier to look at this from a fiscal perspective before it affects your loved ones. I know, it does appear morbid...but we actually do this every year. We have a novel pandemic outbreak of a zoonotic coronavirus every year? Admittedly I'm not very observant, but I feel like I'd have noticed something like this if it'd occurred in my lifetime.
|
|
|
Post by dman on Apr 12, 2020 12:43:48 GMT -5
We are currently at 60,000 as of now with flu. For the 19-20 flu season. Running from October of last year to right around now. Yes, so about a two month head start from COVID with as of now 40,000 more deaths currently.
|
|
|
Post by dman on Apr 12, 2020 12:48:32 GMT -5
I know, it does appear morbid...but we actually do this every year. We have a novel pandemic outbreak of a zoonotic coronavirus every year? Admittedly I'm not very observant, but I feel like I'd have noticed something like this if it'd occurred in my lifetime. Coronavirus is around every year. It’s this new strain that has us all shut in. I’m speaking to your philosophical point of how many lives are acceptable to lose? I’m just saying we are apparently comfortable as a country losing 40-60,000 people a year to influenza is all. Ultimately, these decisions will also have to be made with this virus as well.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 12:57:23 GMT -5
We have a novel pandemic outbreak of a zoonotic coronavirus every year? Admittedly I'm not very observant, but I feel like I'd have noticed something like this if it'd occurred in my lifetime. Coronavirus is around every year. It’s this new strain that has us all shut in. I’m speaking to your philosophical point of how many lives are acceptable to lose? I’m just saying we are apparently comfortable as a country losing 40-60,000 people a year to influenza is all. Ultimately, these decisions will also have to be made with this virus as well. It sounds to me like it's the novel part that you're confused about. Influenza has been in the human population for thousands of years. We have seasonal jabs and a level of immunity built up. A novel coronavirus will spread thru a population with no impediment. You have no frame of reference for a pandemic like this. Influenza isn't it.
|
|
|
Post by justahick on Apr 12, 2020 13:01:46 GMT -5
For the 19-20 flu season. Running from October of last year to right around now. Yes, so about a two month head start from COVID with as of now 40,000 more deaths currently. Curious where your figures are coming from...the CDC current death tally for this season is 24,000.
|
|
|
Post by dman on Apr 12, 2020 13:04:53 GMT -5
Coronavirus is around every year. It’s this new strain that has us all shut in. I’m speaking to your philosophical point of how many lives are acceptable to lose? I’m just saying we are apparently comfortable as a country losing 40-60,000 people a year to influenza is all. Ultimately, these decisions will also have to be made with this virus as well. It sounds to me like it's the novel part that you're confused about. Influenza has been in the human population for thousands of years. We have seasonal jabs and a level of immunity built up. A novel coronavirus will spread thru a population with no impediment. You have no frame of reference for a pandemic like this. Influenza isn't it. Understood... and the same will eventually be true with this. There may never be a vaccine for this virus. At what point do you look at the whole of the country versus the 1-2% of country. It not an easy conversation for sure but one that needs to happen over the next few weeks.
|
|
|
Post by mervinswerved on Apr 12, 2020 13:13:13 GMT -5
It sounds to me like it's the novel part that you're confused about. Influenza has been in the human population for thousands of years. We have seasonal jabs and a level of immunity built up. A novel coronavirus will spread thru a population with no impediment. You have no frame of reference for a pandemic like this. Influenza isn't it. Understood... and the same will eventually be true with this. There may never be a vaccine for this virus. At what point do you look at the whole of the country versus the 1-2% of country. It not an easy conversation for sure but one that needs to happen over the next few weeks. I'm cool with the virus taking 1% of the population as long as we get to choose which 1%.
|
|
|
Post by dman on Apr 12, 2020 13:17:07 GMT -5
Yes, so about a two month head start from COVID with as of now 40,000 more deaths currently. Curious where your figures are coming from...the CDC current death tally for this season is 24,000. Haha, I love this! It’s the same source as you. You gave the “low number” and I gave the high. Let’s split difference and say 40, 000; which is still low. My point remains the same.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2020 13:28:01 GMT -5
It sounds to me like it's the novel part that you're confused about. Influenza has been in the human population for thousands of years. We have seasonal jabs and a level of immunity built up. A novel coronavirus will spread thru a population with no impediment. You have no frame of reference for a pandemic like this. Influenza isn't it. Understood... and the same will eventually be true with this. There may never be a vaccine for this virus. At what point do you look at the whole of the country versus the 1-2% of country. It not an easy conversation for sure but one that needs to happen over the next few weeks. Ok, I've been playing word games with you, but the above post is a good one so I'm going to try and match it. Key word above is eventually. As a single strand RNA virus, you're right, there may never be a vaccine due the speed at which it mutates. But as a novel virus we simply cannot afford (either in economic terms or lost of life) to allow this to spread unchecked right now. We're at 533,000 cases right now even with an emergency declared in all 50 States. That's why it's disingenuous to quote infection or mortality rates of other viruses and try to compare them to COVID-19. As a society we are doing EVERYTHING we can to limit the spread of this outbreak. We allow influenza to run relatively unchecked every year. The reason the death toll is lower than the worst case projections is because of what is being done. Imagine if every major city was worse than N.Y. is right now. Would you still be quoting influenza numbers? The GOP have the Senate and the White House. I don't know why people around here keep posting about the economy like they're the only ones who are aware of the financial implications. We get it. We all get it. But every single one of those decision makers agree that this is the only sensible course of action right now. The ONLY people advocating "opening up" the economy are certain swathes of the media who have no skin in the game (they lose nothing either way, their jobs are safe & their families are rich and they are just trying to be controversial so you'll think they're insightful. They're playing you. Stop allowing them to. Our society is on this. We're winning (slowly, painfully). Stop booing.
|
|
|
Post by noblesol on Apr 12, 2020 13:38:13 GMT -5
Don't get sucked into a shallow "lives vs. dollars" argument. It's not how public health policy is going to be made.
The balancing of public policy will be along these lines: 1] "Lives lost to COVID19 in the current public health policy of widespread extensive enforced lockdowns and social distancing (destroying the economy)." Compared to: 2] "Collateral damage lives that will be lost, by the continuation of the current public policy that destroys the economy, jobs, and creates widespread depression and poverty." Compared to: 3] "Lives lost in in a new public health plan that modifies the current public health policy to reopen as much of the country as quickly as testing programs will allow."
#1 is where we are currently. Eventually, it produces diminishing returns, and the collateral damage it causes (#2) creates as many or more deaths from other causes than it saves from COVID19, which requires a new public health policy that moves away from lockdowns and strict social distancing, enabled by widespread testing programs implemented wisely at the local level, the buildup of herd immunity, the proliferation of better treatments, and eventually vaccines (#3).
Obviously, we want to get to situation #3 as quickly as possible. The 1st piece of that which can be achieved are widespread testing programs implemented at the local level, which will also have the beneficial effect of more quickly allowing herd immunity measurement and measuring virus mutation, and suggest which regions and demographics can be more quickly opened up. The next piece of #3 that can hopefully be achieved is the proliferation of better treatments. That appears to be happening now, but there is still a bureaucratic reluctance to speed the process up, and of a full throat endorsing of 'right to try' that retards the speed of treatment advancements. Vaccines against COVID19 are probably the last step achievable, as the safety and efficacy hurdles a new vaccine must overcome are real and there isn't much track record of successful vaccine development against a corona virus.
|
|
|
Post by justahick on Apr 12, 2020 13:50:49 GMT -5
Curious where your figures are coming from...the CDC current death tally for this season is 24,000. Haha, I love this! It’s the same source as you. You gave the “low number” and I gave the high. Let’s split difference and say 40, 000; which is still low. My point remains the same. No - the only figure on the CDC page is the one I quoted. www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
|
|
|
Post by dman on Apr 12, 2020 13:54:39 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by volleydadtx on Apr 12, 2020 14:01:05 GMT -5
As of April 6 there have been as many as 55 million cases of flu in U.S. this year with 400,000 hospitalization and 63,000 deaths, 162 being pediatric. Compare that with the numbers of COVID and influenza numbers blows them away. I get that this is a new virus and hospitalization are longer than flu cases to those that reach that point but do question of there is some ulterior political motives at play and media stoking our fears. We didn't do this for HIV in the 80's, which truly was a death notice for those that had it back then.....just throwing it out there. By the end of this the flu may be the big killer this year, not COVID. HIV disproportionately affected gays and minorities, so that could have something to do with it.... While it is technically true that HIV could be spread through several different ways, it's principal mode of transmission has always been unprotected male gay sex. About 82 percent of cases. www.cdc.gov/hiv/group/gender/men/index.htmlI'll never fail to grasp why media and politicians steadfastly dodged this factoid, but it in no way made it less true. I love smoking cigars. But I can't ignore that smoking is a known carcinogen just because I don't want to disparage my fellow cigar-smoking friends. We are too PC in this country for our own damn good.
|
|
|
Post by dman on Apr 12, 2020 14:06:29 GMT -5
Understood... and the same will eventually be true with this. There may never be a vaccine for this virus. At what point do you look at the whole of the country versus the 1-2% of country. It not an easy conversation for sure but one that needs to happen over the next few weeks. Ok, I've been playing word games with you, but the above post is a good one so I'm going to try and match it. Key word above is eventually. As a single strand RNA virus, you're right, there may never be a vaccine due the speed at which it mutates. But as a novel virus we simply cannot afford (either in economic terms or lost of life) to allow this to spread unchecked right now. We're at 533,000 cases right now even with an emergency declared in all 50 States. That's why it's disingenuous to quote infection or mortality rates of other viruses and try to compare them to COVID-19. As a society we are doing EVERYTHING we can to limit the spread of this outbreak. We allow influenza to run relatively unchecked every year. The reason the death toll is lower than the worst case projections is because of what is being done. Imagine if every major city was worse than N.Y. is right now. Would you still be quoting influenza numbers? The GOP have the Senate and the White House. I don't know why people around here keep posting about the economy like they're the only ones who are aware of the financial implications. We get it. We all get it. But every single one of those decision makers agree that this is the only sensible course of action right now. The ONLY people advocating "opening up" the economy are certain swathes of the media who have no skin in the game (they lose nothing either way, their jobs are safe & their families are rich and they are just trying to be controversial so you'll think they're insightful. They're playing you. Stop allowing them to. Our society is on this. We're winning (slowly, painfully). Stop booing. I’ll agree with a lot of what you’re saying although I think NYC is an outlier due to population density compared to others. I’d have no issues shutting them down; it’s the 85-90% of rest of country I have the issue with. I also feel it’s more than ONLY swathes of media that want country open. You must have a job where you are still getting a paycheck; unfortunately that’s not the case with me so the stimulus check I get will have to pay bills, not go into my savings account. I NEED this country to open back up! I apologize if this is not your case, just attempting to read between the lines. I would say the majority of media LOVES this panic and some outlets would love to play this out as long as possible, even to a point of some of their own economic demise. Sadly, politics is a player in this right now as this is turning into a “socialistic vs capitalistic” debate as what is truly the best way for a country to run and govern.
|
|