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Post by n00b on Apr 26, 2020 13:40:53 GMT -5
image.aausports.org/dnn/volleyball/2020/2020TeamListByClub.pdf31 pages!! It takes me a while to scroll down the list. 45,000 players, 10,000 club coaches, 6,000 college coaches and 100,000 spectators. Remove college coaches and spectators but add 10 more “chaperones” per team. We are still talking about more than 100,000 people in the convention center. The practicality of this event is certainly questionable but your numbers are way off. I counted one of those pages and it had 60 teams on it, so if every one of those teams came (which absolutely wouldn't happen), you'd be at 1,800 teams. 20,000 players (again, I think I'm over-estimating an average of 11 players per team) 4,000 club coaches (traveling 2 coaches per team is normal) 20,000 chaperones ___________________________ 44,000 team members. But wait! there are three different waves of events. So that gets you down to 15,000 at any one time. But wait! There's an AM wave and a PM wave. That gets you to 8,000. Add in 150 refs. Your 6,000 college coach estimate is also crazy. 600 is probably a high number, but we'll go with that. I'll round up to account for OCCC staff and call that 10,000 people inside the entire Orange County Convention Center (950,000 square feet) at any one time. That's almost 100 square feet per person. Whether THAT is feasible and safe is certainly debatable. But at least debate with realistic numbers.
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Post by mikegarrison on Apr 26, 2020 13:45:16 GMT -5
image.aausports.org/dnn/volleyball/2020/2020TeamListByClub.pdf31 pages!! It takes me a while to scroll down the list. 45,000 players, 10,000 club coaches, 6,000 college coaches and 100,000 spectators. Remove college coaches and spectators but add 10 more “chaperones” per team. We are still talking about more than 100,000 people in the convention center. The practicality of this event is certainly questionable but your numbers are way off. I counted one of those pages and it had 60 teams on it, so if every one of those teams came (which absolutely wouldn't happen), you'd be at 1,800 teams. 20,000 players (again, I think I'm over-estimating an average of 11 players per team) 4,000 club coaches (traveling 2 coaches per team is normal) 20,000 chaperones ___________________________ 44,000 team members. But wait! there are three different waves of events. So that gets you down to 15,000 at any one time. But wait! There's an AM wave and a PM wave. That gets you to 8,000. Add in 150 refs. Your 6,000 college coach estimate is also crazy. 600 is probably a high number, but we'll go with that. I'll round up to account for OCCC staff and call that 10,000 people inside the entire Orange County Convention Center (950,000 square feet) at any one time. That's almost 100 square feet per person. Whether THAT is feasible and safe is certainly debatable. But at least debate with realistic numbers. Obviously 80,000 people would be worse than 8,000 people, but right now (or even in June), I'm not eager to join a crowd of even 8000 people.
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Post by somethinbruin on Apr 26, 2020 13:45:55 GMT -5
Anyone know what the security deposit is to hold the OCCC? Assuming it's close to or well North of $100k AAU has no reason not to kick the can down the road... If AAU pulls the plug then the OCCC keeps that $$... If the state, local authorities disallow the event then AAU gets their $$ back. I simply can't see this event going off... Deposits, contracts, and cancellation penalties are almost certainly a main driver of this decision. And I doubt the AAU is operating under any illusions that they'll actually be able to hold their event. An academic association that I'm a part of was supposed to have it's annual conference at the very end of March. The association held off on cancelling the conference, which typically has a few thousand attendees, until the CDC guidelines recommended no gatherings of more than 50 people. They were initially waiting on the state government to issue a stay at home order, but the conference was located in one of the southern states where the governor stubbornly refused to mandate almost any kind of social distancing. Cancelling the conference without these measures from the government would have meant the association incurred a series of penalties and lost tons of deposits on the convention center, hotel room blocks, equipment rental, etc. It would have been a devastating financial hit. So the association basically rolled the dice on the necessary government guidelines coming eventually and kept the event on the books, while offering individuals refunds on their registration fee. It wasn't until about 8-10 days before the conference that the CDC issued its guidance that finally gave the association the legal cover it needed to cancel the contracts without penalty. I don't know the nuts and bolts of whatever deals the AAU has with their vendors and venues in Florida, but I would imagine that part of the reason for the AAU's keeping this event on the books is so that they can wait to cancel once they've got the legal means to do so without incurring tons of penalties. The organization has to know at this point that many (most?) teams will not attend. My academic association certainly knew that people weren't going to come. They just had to wait it out.
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Post by sevb on Apr 26, 2020 13:50:40 GMT -5
It’s the 2nd largest CC in the US... I wouldn’t have guessed that it was bigger than the GWCC... but it is... and I’m 100% certain that GWCC is well north of $100k security deposit. I’m familiar w several long standing tournaments run at state owned facilities... They all have to pay yearly deposits (some of these events are 10yrs and longer)... I’m working on a number for the OCCC... we’ll see what comes back...
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Post by n00b on Apr 26, 2020 13:55:12 GMT -5
Anyone know what the security deposit is to hold the OCCC? Assuming it's close to or well North of $100k AAU has no reason not to kick the can down the road... If AAU pulls the plug then the OCCC keeps that $$... If the state, local authorities disallow the event then AAU gets their $$ back. I simply can't see this event going off... Deposits, contracts, and cancellation penalties are almost certainly a main driver of this decision. And I doubt the AAU is operating under any illusions that they'll actually be able to hold their event. An academic association that I'm a part of was supposed to have it's annual conference at the very end of March. The association held off on cancelling the conference, which typically has a few thousand attendees, until the CDC guidelines recommended no gatherings of more than 50 people. They were initially waiting on the state government to issue a stay at home order, but the conference was located in one of the southern states where the governor stubbornly refused to mandate almost any kind of social distancing. Cancelling the conference without these measures from the government would have meant the association incurred a series of penalties and lost tons of deposits on the convention center, hotel room blocks, equipment rental, etc. It would have been a devastating financial hit. So the association basically rolled the dice on the necessary government guidelines coming eventually and kept the event on the books, while offering individuals refunds on their registration fee. It wasn't until about 8-10 days before the conference that the CDC issued its guidance that finally gave the association the legal cover it needed to cancel the contracts without penalty. I don't know the nuts and bolts of whatever deals the AAU has with their vendors and venues in Florida, but I would imagine that part of the reason for the AAU's keeping this event on the books is so that they can wait to cancel once they've got the legal means to do so without incurring tons of penalties. The organization has to know at this point that many (most?) teams will not attend. My academic association certainly knew that people weren't going to come. They just had to wait it out. And did the world end because they waited until 10 days before the event? I don't understand the hurry that everybody's in.
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Post by mastermind on Apr 26, 2020 14:17:28 GMT -5
So not stating this as a statement but a question. With all the "data" the experts were waiting for, where in the world are the outbreak hot spots caused by thousands of concerts and sporting events that were taking place in March? where is the evidence one event spurned a massive outbreak? with contact tracing, you think there be at least a few where people all said, "yeah I was that NBA game, soccer match, campaign rally, pop concert, and I felt sick or went to ER a week later?? I'm getting really suspicious now and apparently even ER doctors are too even in California. The story on how patient No. 31 caused the spike in South Korea. One person attended 2 church services with about 9,000 people around. 1,200 people tested positive afterward. www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/what-we-can-all-learn-from-south-koreas-super-spreader-of-coronavirus-patient-31/ar-BB11cpH2There are many outbreaks and clusters in US which were associated with public gathering. New Orleans outbreak was for sure associated with Mardi Gras parade. www.google.com/amp/s/www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_dedfb5e4-7c2a-11ea-901f-6720fa25be5a.amp.html
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Post by midwestvball1 on Apr 26, 2020 14:17:44 GMT -5
image.aausports.org/dnn/volleyball/2020/2020TeamListByClub.pdf31 pages!! It takes me a while to scroll down the list. 45,000 players, 10,000 club coaches, 6,000 college coaches and 100,000 spectators. Remove college coaches and spectators but add 10 more “chaperones” per team. We are still talking about more than 100,000 people in the convention center. The practicality of this event is certainly questionable but your numbers are way off. I counted one of those pages and it had 60 teams on it, so if every one of those teams came (which absolutely wouldn't happen), you'd be at 1,800 teams. 20,000 players (again, I think I'm over-estimating an average of 11 players per team) 4,000 club coaches (traveling 2 coaches per team is normal) 20,000 chaperones ___________________________ 44,000 team members. But wait! there are three different waves of events. So that gets you down to 15,000 at any one time. But wait! There's an AM wave and a PM wave. That gets you to 8,000. Add in 150 refs. Your 6,000 college coach estimate is also crazy. 600 is probably a high number, but we'll go with that. I'll round up to account for OCCC staff and call that 10,000 people inside the entire Orange County Convention Center (950,000 square feet) at any one time. That's almost 100 square feet per person. Whether THAT is feasible and safe is certainly debatable. But at least debate with realistic numbers. Obviously, you need to work on those math skills. OCCC had ~150 courts last year based on 2019 AES court schedule. So we won't account for the additional 18 courts at HP & VISA Center that could or would have to be added to OCCC. In addition, the fact that they added 18 Open, 18 Premier, 18 Club, and 18 Classic divisions to the June dates. So let's do the AM wave and say we are maxed at 150 courts with all four team pools. I disagree with using minimums or averages. Parents are going to use those bench personnel and chaperones passes like crazy even if they have to pay that low price for registration. So here we go: 150 courts x 4 teams each (15 players, 5 bench personnel, 10 chaperones on each team) = 18,000 people Add your estimate for 150 refs, 600 college coaches, 9 250 tournament workers, hospitality, concessions, cleaning, and security = 10,000 people (agree this might be high) Total = 28,000 people in AM Wave Total = 28,000 people in PM Wave Total = 56,000 people 1 day total I agree the use of realistic numbers in a debate too.
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Post by somethinbruin on Apr 26, 2020 14:34:15 GMT -5
Deposits, contracts, and cancellation penalties are almost certainly a main driver of this decision. And I doubt the AAU is operating under any illusions that they'll actually be able to hold their event. An academic association that I'm a part of was supposed to have it's annual conference at the very end of March. The association held off on cancelling the conference, which typically has a few thousand attendees, until the CDC guidelines recommended no gatherings of more than 50 people. They were initially waiting on the state government to issue a stay at home order, but the conference was located in one of the southern states where the governor stubbornly refused to mandate almost any kind of social distancing. Cancelling the conference without these measures from the government would have meant the association incurred a series of penalties and lost tons of deposits on the convention center, hotel room blocks, equipment rental, etc. It would have been a devastating financial hit. So the association basically rolled the dice on the necessary government guidelines coming eventually and kept the event on the books, while offering individuals refunds on their registration fee. It wasn't until about 8-10 days before the conference that the CDC issued its guidance that finally gave the association the legal cover it needed to cancel the contracts without penalty. I don't know the nuts and bolts of whatever deals the AAU has with their vendors and venues in Florida, but I would imagine that part of the reason for the AAU's keeping this event on the books is so that they can wait to cancel once they've got the legal means to do so without incurring tons of penalties. The organization has to know at this point that many (most?) teams will not attend. My academic association certainly knew that people weren't going to come. They just had to wait it out. And did the world end because they waited until 10 days before the event? I don't understand the hurry that everybody's in. Eh, did the world end? No. But it did put stress and strain on people and organizations with travel arrangements and reservations, particularly those that had hard cancellation dates that fell before those ten days. The conference hotel had, I think, a two week cancellation/partial refund policy if you booked rooms with them, so a lot of people had to decide before the conference cancelled whether they were going or not. There was a lot of uncertainty about whether any unrefunded deposits or travel expenses would be reimbursed by our employer universities (most travel to professional conferences for academics is paid by the individual out of pocket, then reimbursed fully or partially by their institution). Some universities did. Others haven't. People almost certainly lost money because the conference waited so long to cancel. I was fortunate: Months before the pandemic, I had booked an AirBnB for most of my trip with a cancellation policy that gave me up until 24 hours before the reservation to make a cancellation and get a nearly full refund. But if I had booked a place with a stricter policy that limited cancellations to 30 days prior I would have been out that money (this was before AirBnB came around and issued a policy that refunded cancellations during the pandemic). I'm still waiting on a refund from one of the hotels I booked for that trip, and my request for that refund was approved 6 weeks ago. I'm doing OK financially, not great but OK, but there are a lot of graduate students and contingent faculty who cannot afford to float $1,000+ in hotel reservations until the hotel or our institutions get around to issuing refunds and reimbursements (I've waited 6+ months for university reimbursement during normal times. I shudder to think what the turnaround time might be now). The writing was on the wall well ahead of time for that conference just like it's on the wall for AAUs. Prolonging the decision puts unnecessary strain on a lot of people. It's not about rushing to make a decision. It's about recognizing that these are exceptional circumstances and listening to the experts, all of whom have basically said that mass gatherings will not be possible for months if not well into next year. The idea that we could have a massive volleyball tournament in 8 weeks isn't realistic, and pretty much everyone from the organizers to the venues to the participants would be better off recognizing that and being able to adjust their plans accordingly.
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Post by mastermind on Apr 26, 2020 14:36:26 GMT -5
last summer we attended AAU National Championships. We had a wonderful time in Orlando. My kids love volleyball. But we will not attend unless Covid is well under control in the country. It will start with safe measurement to restart team practice, then local scrimmage with other teams/clubs. Large scale national gathering will be the last thing to be permitted regardless the safety measurements mentioned by AAU. Referee can’t blow whistles with mask and kids can’t play with mask. Volleyball is a verbal sports. We all stay indoor and breath ventilated circular air for 6 hours daily.
I have no problems if teams and families plan to attend. However, I am worried that the outbreak associated with this type of tournaments will make our summer or fall worse. I really hope there will be a high school and college season.
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Post by n00b on Apr 26, 2020 14:38:11 GMT -5
The practicality of this event is certainly questionable but your numbers are way off. I counted one of those pages and it had 60 teams on it, so if every one of those teams came (which absolutely wouldn't happen), you'd be at 1,800 teams. 20,000 players (again, I think I'm over-estimating an average of 11 players per team) 4,000 club coaches (traveling 2 coaches per team is normal) 20,000 chaperones ___________________________ 44,000 team members. But wait! there are three different waves of events. So that gets you down to 15,000 at any one time. But wait! There's an AM wave and a PM wave. That gets you to 8,000. Add in 150 refs. Your 6,000 college coach estimate is also crazy. 600 is probably a high number, but we'll go with that. I'll round up to account for OCCC staff and call that 10,000 people inside the entire Orange County Convention Center (950,000 square feet) at any one time. That's almost 100 square feet per person. Whether THAT is feasible and safe is certainly debatable. But at least debate with realistic numbers. Obviously, you need to work on those math skills. OCCC had ~150 courts last year based on 2019 AES court schedule. So we won't account for the additional 18 courts at HP & VISA Center that could or would have to be added to OCCC. In addition, the fact that they added 18 Open, 18 Premier, 18 Club, and 18 Classic divisions to the June dates. So let's do the AM wave and say we are maxed at 150 courts with all four team pools. I disagree with using minimums or averages. Parents are going to use those bench personnel and chaperones passes like crazy even if they have to pay that low price for registration. So here we go: 150 courts x 4 teams each (15 players, 5 bench personnel, 10 chaperones on each team) = 18,000 people Add your estimate for 150 refs, 600 college coaches, 9 250 tournament workers, hospitality, concessions, cleaning, and security = 10,000 people (agree this might be high) Total = 28,000 people in AM Wave Total = 28,000 people in PM Wave Total = 56,000 people 1 day total I agree the use of realistic numbers in a debate too. I think there is ZERO chance they put 150 courts in there. They specifically said courts will be more spaced out. Plus I don't think the demand will be there. That's the biggest difference in our numbers. I also think you used 10,000 as the number of non-rostered people in the building. I see where my statement was ambiguous, but I meant 2,000 (which made the total 10,000). So that would take you from my low end at 10,000 to your high end at 20,000. That's a reasonable range as some waves are busier than others. They could also put all of the dividers down with separate entrances so you'd have four events of 3,000-5,000 people. Would that be better?
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Post by mastermind on Apr 26, 2020 14:41:41 GMT -5
Obviously, you need to work on those math skills. OCCC had ~150 courts last year based on 2019 AES court schedule. So we won't account for the additional 18 courts at HP & VISA Center that could or would have to be added to OCCC. In addition, the fact that they added 18 Open, 18 Premier, 18 Club, and 18 Classic divisions to the June dates. So let's do the AM wave and say we are maxed at 150 courts with all four team pools. I disagree with using minimums or averages. Parents are going to use those bench personnel and chaperones passes like crazy even if they have to pay that low price for registration. So here we go: 150 courts x 4 teams each (15 players, 5 bench personnel, 10 chaperones on each team) = 18,000 people Add your estimate for 150 refs, 600 college coaches, 9 250 tournament workers, hospitality, concessions, cleaning, and security = 10,000 people (agree this might be high) Total = 28,000 people in AM Wave Total = 28,000 people in PM Wave Total = 56,000 people 1 day total I agree the use of realistic numbers in a debate too. I think there is ZERO chance they put 150 courts in there. They specifically said courts will be more spaced out. Plus I don't think the demand will be there. That's the biggest difference in our numbers. I also think you used 10,000 as the number of non-rostered people in the building. I see where my statement was ambiguous, but I meant 2,000 (which made the total 10,000). So that would take you from my low end at 10,000 to your high end at 20,000. That's a reasonable range as some waves are busier than others. They could also put all of the dividers down with separate entrances so you'd have four events of 3,000-5,000 people. Would that be better? n00b I can see you really want AAU to happen. The point is not the pure number 3,000 vs 30,000. It is the nature of this type of gathering as sports events.
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Post by n00b on Apr 26, 2020 14:42:15 GMT -5
And did the world end because they waited until 10 days before the event? I don't understand the hurry that everybody's in. Eh, did the world end? No. But it did put stress and strain on people and organizations with travel arrangements and reservations, particularly those that had hard cancellation dates that fell before those ten days. The conference hotel had, I think, a two week cancellation/partial refund policy if you booked rooms with them, so a lot of people had to decide before the conference cancelled whether they were going or not. There was a lot of uncertainty about whether any unrefunded deposits or travel expenses would be reimbursed by our employer universities (most travel to professional conferences for academics is paid by the individual out of pocket, then reimbursed fully or partially by their institution). Some universities did. Others haven't. People almost certainly lost money because the conference waited so long to cancel. I was fortunate: Months before the pandemic, I had booked an AirBnB for most of my trip with a cancellation policy that gave me up until 24 hours before the reservation to make a cancellation and get a nearly full refund. But if I had booked a place with a stricter policy that limited cancellations to 30 days prior I would have been out that money (this was before AirBnB came around and issued a policy that refunded cancellations during the pandemic). I'm still waiting on a refund from one of the hotels I booked for that trip, and my request for that refund was approved 6 weeks ago. I'm doing OK financially, not great but OK, but there are a lot of graduate students and contingent faculty who cannot afford to float $1,000+ in hotel reservations until the hotel or our institutions get around to issuing refunds and reimbursements (I've waited 6+ months for university reimbursement during normal times. I shudder to think what the turnaround time might be now). The writing was on the wall well ahead of time for that conference just like it's on the wall for AAUs. Prolonging the decision puts unnecessary strain on a lot of people. It's not about rushing to make a decision. It's about recognizing that these are exceptional circumstances and listening to the experts, all of whom have basically said that mass gatherings will not be possible for months if not well into next year. The idea that we could have a massive volleyball tournament in 8 weeks isn't realistic, and pretty much everyone from the organizers to the venues to the participants would be better off recognizing that and being able to adjust their plans accordingly. I was able to cancel a pre-paid, non-refundable hotel room the day I was supposed to check in. Then a non-refundable hotwire hotel 5 days in advance. Full refunds for both. There was certainly some stress involved (and if I were booking a hotel room for AAU, I CERTAINLY would only book with a lenient cancellation policy), but I got every penny of my travel back from COVID cancellations.
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Post by austintatious on Apr 26, 2020 14:53:10 GMT -5
Between those parents with common sense, and referees who put health above $$$$, will put an end to this nonsense. Are teams actually going to fly? Have you seen how many flights have been canceled? Don't see it.
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Post by n00b on Apr 26, 2020 14:56:13 GMT -5
I think there is ZERO chance they put 150 courts in there. They specifically said courts will be more spaced out. Plus I don't think the demand will be there. That's the biggest difference in our numbers. I also think you used 10,000 as the number of non-rostered people in the building. I see where my statement was ambiguous, but I meant 2,000 (which made the total 10,000). So that would take you from my low end at 10,000 to your high end at 20,000. That's a reasonable range as some waves are busier than others. They could also put all of the dividers down with separate entrances so you'd have four events of 3,000-5,000 people. Would that be better? n00b I can see you really want AAU to happen. The point is not the pure number 3,000 vs 30,000. It is the nature of this type of gathering as sports events. I don't know if AAUs can safely happen. It's well above my pay grade and certainly not my area of expertise. However, what drives me nuts is the fear-mongering of saying that no matter what happens over the next six weeks, and even if the city, county, and state public health officials sign off on it, that it's still too dangerous.
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Post by Phaedrus on Apr 26, 2020 14:56:25 GMT -5
One of the biggest conferences in my profession cancelled. It was supposed to happen in mid April. They finally figured out the refund. A big part of the issue was that the convention center disputed our claim of force majeur because we were talking about cancellation before the state did. I think we are going back in a few years. There was talk of doing the whole thing as a virtual vonference. But that sad untenable because there is a huge trade show that went with it. In the end everyone got money back except for the registrants, they did get access to the papers and presentations that was supposed to be presented.
There is another one coming up in late September. And the plans are fluid, which drives all the engineers involved crazy. The options are going live inperson or all virtual, and everything in between.
Its a staring contest as far as the convention center is concerned. The last one that blinks wins. Of vourse we have over 30% of participants from overseas and they are frantically try to figure out what to do. Some can't come because their governments won't allow them to travel.
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