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Post by bbg95 on Sept 1, 2021 23:20:54 GMT -5
I do not know for sure what Devon's overall reputation was with the jury. He betrayed Ashley - taking Ryan instead of her on the reward at Final 6 after he and Chrissy won as a pair, and then later voting her out that same episode. But other than Ashley, I don't know of anyone who really would have had much against him. And without the bad firemaking twist, Ben would have gotten voted out at Final 4, 3-1. So Devon certainly made some mistakes with not getting Ben out at Final 8 and not handling Ashley better, but I thought he played the best of the Final 4. In particular, making sure to put his vote on Mike at Final 5 in case Ben had an idol (which Ben of course did have and did play) was a good play that looks even better in hindsight.I just got to this vote, and I agree that this was very impressive. I think I need to retract what I said earlier about Devon being a dollar-store Fabio. I don't think he's quite as good a character as Fabio was (a top four winner for me from a character standpoint), but he's definitely more of a strategist. The circumstances surrounding that vote were entertaining, as Ben found yet another idol while everyone else slept (seriously, this just kept happening--why was no one else looking for an idol?). The next day, Chrissy, Devon and Mike concocted a plan to use Chrissy's expired super idol and the paper from Ryan's earlier idol to bluff that they had found the idol, so Ben shouldn't even bother looking. This plan isn't too bad, except for the part that Ben had already found the idol. I'm not a huge fan of Ben, but he did a great job of playing everything up to the jury (e.g. pretending that he was dismayed that he was going home because they had found the idol) up to and including when he dropped his "Ben Bomb." And frankly, Chrissy was so smug about this that it was fun to see it really blow up in her face. She's lucky she won immunity, or else she would have been gone. I also enjoyed it when Chrissy approached Ben ostensibly to repair their friendship and then floated the idea of Ben bringing her to the final three, which he immediately shot down because he saw through her act.
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Post by carsonvega on Sept 2, 2021 1:05:36 GMT -5
I think you make some good points about why Ben may not have been targeted over JP, but I still think that if they were going to break up that trio, it's a lot better to send either Chrissy or Ryan home than to send JP home. And fair point about Ben surviving a tribal he probably shouldn't have. While I think that the power alliance screwed up, Ben still does deserve some credit for not being targeted there. As for Devon, he did get the "Coach trying to give people hugs in South Pacific" treatment from Ashley after he voted her out. But I tend to agree that he'd have a pretty good chance at Final Tribal Council. As for that hypothetical about Chrissy trying to destroy the "advantage"...I think production would force her hand one way or the other. Edit: According to this thread about the jury speaks videos, it seems like Ryan had effectively zero shot to win, so it would be between Devon and Chrissy. I think Devon, in particular, should very much have wanted Ryan to stay in the game at Final 9 (even with an idol), going back to their original friendship/alliance on the Hustlers. There had also been a suggestion (I think it was by Mike) at a tribal council that the Heroes would form a majority alliance of 4 if the game got down to no Healers left at 7. It was well-known that Ben was a threat so an all-Heroes alliance of 4 was unlikely...but I could see Chrissy going along with it for a vote or two if she needed to do it to save herself - say, if Ben had won the immunity challenge or was known to be playing an idol at a specific vote - particularly because Lauren became quite threatening as both an alliance leader and someone who could win immunity challenges. I agree that Lauren and Devon probably would have been better off strategically if they had gotten Chrissy out, though.
On the other hand, looking at it from Ashley's perspective, she apparently got along with Chrissy pretty well (given that Ashley voted for Chrissy to win in the end). So Ashley probably would have been best served if Ryan had gone home at that point, in order to eliminate extra options for Devon further down the line. I'm just speculating, but maybe that's why it ended up being JP (besides him being apparently a bigger physical threat than Chrissy or Ryan) - he had the fewest connections to any of the Lauren/Devon/Ashley alliance, and was someone they could easily agree on to get rid of.
With respect to destroying the advantage, yeah, I think you're probably right that the producers would have forced it, and it probably would have played badly with the jury overall (making Chrissy look like she was trying to circumvent the rules to get Ben out). But I definitely would have respected Chrissy for trying that - I think that that particular twist is awful, and I think the producers should have had to squirm to justify/defend it more. As things currently stand, as far as I can tell, fans have apparently taken out more of their feelings about the situation on Ben than the producers.
I do not know for sure what Devon's overall reputation was with the jury. He betrayed Ashley - taking Ryan instead of her on the reward at Final 6 after he and Chrissy won as a pair, and then later voting her out that same episode. But other than Ashley, I don't know of anyone who really would have had much against him. And without the bad firemaking twist, Ben would have gotten voted out at Final 4, 3-1. So Devon certainly made some mistakes with not getting Ben out at Final 8 and not handling Ashley better, but I thought he played the best of the Final 4. In particular, making sure to put his vote on Mike at Final 5 in case Ben had an idol (which Ben of course did have and did play) was a good play that looks even better in hindsight.I just got to this vote, and I agree that this was very impressive. I think I need to retract what I said earlier about Devon being a dollar-store Fabio. I don't think he's quite as good a character as Fabio was (a top four winner for me from a character standpoint), but he's definitely more of a strategist. The circumstances surrounding that vote were entertaining, as Ben found yet another idol while everyone else slept (seriously, this just kept happening--why was no one else looking for an idol?). The next day, Chrissy, Devon and Mike concocted a plan to use Chrissy's expired super idol and the paper from Ryan's earlier idol to bluff that they had found the idol, so Ben shouldn't even bother looking. This plan isn't too bad, except for the part that Ben had already found the idol. I'm not a huge fan of Ben, but he did a great job of playing everything up to the jury (e.g. pretending that he was dismayed that he was going home because they had found the idol) up to and including when he dropped his "Ben Bomb." And frankly, Chrissy was so smug about this that it was fun to see it really blow up in her face. She's lucky she won immunity, or else she would have been gone. I also enjoyed it when Chrissy approached Ben ostensibly to repair their friendship and then floated the idea of Ben bringing her to the final three, which he immediately shot down because he saw through her act.
I would agree that Devon provided fewer entertaining moments than Fabio, but was significantly more strategic and had much better connections to alliances within his respective game.
As for what you wrote about Chrissy's smugness, that's part of why I think Devon probably beats her in a Final 3 of Devon-Chrissy-Ryan. (And I agree with Ryan not having a shot; I didn't remember all the details of the jury speaks videos but I knew in general that Ryan really wasn't respected by the jury.) I think Chrissy gets Mike and Ashley for sure, and Devon gets Lauren and Desi for sure (I read an interview, not worth linking, where Desi really trashed Chrissy). I think Joe leans Devon because of the verbal spats he had with Chrissy from the merge until he was voted out. Chrissy apparently thought she had JP's vote against Ben, but later figured out that JP voted for Ben because JP had a "man's man" type-attitude, so I think Devon would have at least had a shot at JP's vote (because I don't think Devon was seen as lazy like Ryan was). I'm not too sure about Cole, but he clearly wasn't that enamored with Chrissy since he voted for Ben. And for Ben himself, who would have been on the jury if the Final 3 was Devon-Chrissy-Ryan...in some interviews I read I think he did have some respect for Chrissy's game, but I think some of that came from getting to watch it play out on TV. Ben did apparently bond with the other players who were parents, so I guess since Chrissy was a parent, Ben would probably lean toward her, but I also don't think Devon came off as smug to him like Chrissy did. So...put it all together and I think Devon probably wins 5-3, with no votes for Ryan.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 2, 2021 1:57:34 GMT -5
I think you make some good points about why Ben may not have been targeted over JP, but I still think that if they were going to break up that trio, it's a lot better to send either Chrissy or Ryan home than to send JP home. And fair point about Ben surviving a tribal he probably shouldn't have. While I think that the power alliance screwed up, Ben still does deserve some credit for not being targeted there. As for Devon, he did get the "Coach trying to give people hugs in South Pacific" treatment from Ashley after he voted her out. But I tend to agree that he'd have a pretty good chance at Final Tribal Council. As for that hypothetical about Chrissy trying to destroy the "advantage"...I think production would force her hand one way or the other. Edit: According to this thread about the jury speaks videos, it seems like Ryan had effectively zero shot to win, so it would be between Devon and Chrissy. I think Devon, in particular, should very much have wanted Ryan to stay in the game at Final 9 (even with an idol), going back to their original friendship/alliance on the Hustlers. There had also been a suggestion (I think it was by Mike) at a tribal council that the Heroes would form a majority alliance of 4 if the game got down to no Healers left at 7. It was well-known that Ben was a threat so an all-Heroes alliance of 4 was unlikely...but I could see Chrissy going along with it for a vote or two if she needed to do it to save herself - say, if Ben had won the immunity challenge or was known to be playing an idol at a specific vote - particularly because Lauren became quite threatening as both an alliance leader and someone who could win immunity challenges. I agree that Lauren and Devon probably would have been better off strategically if they had gotten Chrissy out, though.
On the other hand, looking at it from Ashley's perspective, she apparently got along with Chrissy pretty well (given that Ashley voted for Chrissy to win in the end). So Ashley probably would have been best served if Ryan had gone home at that point, in order to eliminate extra options for Devon further down the line. I'm just speculating, but maybe that's why it ended up being JP (besides him being apparently a bigger physical threat than Chrissy or Ryan) - he had the fewest connections to any of the Lauren/Devon/Ashley alliance, and was someone they could easily agree on to get rid of.
With respect to destroying the advantage, yeah, I think you're probably right that the producers would have forced it, and it probably would have played badly with the jury overall (making Chrissy look like she was trying to circumvent the rules to get Ben out). But I definitely would have respected Chrissy for trying that - I think that that particular twist is awful, and I think the producers should have had to squirm to justify/defend it more. As things currently stand, as far as I can tell, fans have apparently taken out more of their feelings about the situation on Ben than the producers.
I just got to this vote, and I agree that this was very impressive. I think I need to retract what I said earlier about Devon being a dollar-store Fabio. I don't think he's quite as good a character as Fabio was (a top four winner for me from a character standpoint), but he's definitely more of a strategist. The circumstances surrounding that vote were entertaining, as Ben found yet another idol while everyone else slept (seriously, this just kept happening--why was no one else looking for an idol?). The next day, Chrissy, Devon and Mike concocted a plan to use Chrissy's expired super idol and the paper from Ryan's earlier idol to bluff that they had found the idol, so Ben shouldn't even bother looking. This plan isn't too bad, except for the part that Ben had already found the idol. I'm not a huge fan of Ben, but he did a great job of playing everything up to the jury (e.g. pretending that he was dismayed that he was going home because they had found the idol) up to and including when he dropped his "Ben Bomb." And frankly, Chrissy was so smug about this that it was fun to see it really blow up in her face. She's lucky she won immunity, or else she would have been gone. I also enjoyed it when Chrissy approached Ben ostensibly to repair their friendship and then floated the idea of Ben bringing her to the final three, which he immediately shot down because he saw through her act.
I would agree that Devon provided fewer entertaining moments than Fabio, but was significantly more strategic and had much better connections to alliances within his respective game.
As for what you wrote about Chrissy's smugness, that's part of why I think Devon probably beats her in a Final 3 of Devon-Chrissy-Ryan. (And I agree with Ryan not having a shot; I didn't remember all the details of the jury speaks videos but I knew in general that Ryan really wasn't respected by the jury.) I think Chrissy gets Mike and Ashley for sure, and Devon gets Lauren and Desi for sure (I read an interview, not worth linking, where Desi really trashed Chrissy). I think Joe leans Devon because of the verbal spats he had with Chrissy from the merge until he was voted out. Chrissy apparently thought she had JP's vote against Ben, but later figured out that JP voted for Ben because JP had a "man's man" type-attitude, so I think Devon would have at least had a shot at JP's vote (because I don't think Devon was seen as lazy like Ryan was). I'm not too sure about Cole, but he clearly wasn't that enamored with Chrissy since he voted for Ben. And for Ben himself, who would have been on the jury if the Final 3 was Devon-Chrissy-Ryan...in some interviews I read I think he did have some respect for Chrissy's game, but I think some of that came from getting to watch it play out on TV. Ben did apparently bond with the other players who were parents, so I guess since Chrissy was a parent, Ben would probably lean toward her, but I also don't think Devon came off as smug to him like Chrissy did. So...put it all together and I think Devon probably wins 5-3, with no votes for Ryan.
All very reasonable points. I don't really disagree with anything. As for fire making at final four, I'm not opposed to it in philosophy, as long as everyone knows about it well in advance (i.e. by the start of the merge at the absolute latest). My issue is that it was sprung on the players at the last second and basically led to an illegitimate winner. I don't blame Ben for this, as it wasn't his idea. But production irreparably tainted the season by doing this. I feel the same way about the surprise final two in Micronesia and the surprise final three (with Yul's broken super idol that worked through final four no less) in Cook Islands. Thankfully, Cagayan was able to avert the same fate thanks to the brilliance of Tony somehow convincing Woo to take him to the end. The other thing about fire making is that if it's part of the game, the idols need to expire by final six at the latest, so everyone has to survive at least one vote or win immunity. Edit: I was trying to think of who Chrissy reminded me of, as it had been nagging at me all season, and I figured it out, but it's not another Survivor player. It's Lydia from Breaking Bad. Both are very smart, but both also think they're the smartest person in every situation and are incredibly arrogant about their own aggrandized self-perception. People like that are really annoying, so it's fun to see them get their comeuppance.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 2, 2021 10:45:27 GMT -5
Edit: According to this thread about the jury speaks videos, it seems like Ryan had effectively zero shot to win, so it would be between Devon and Chrissy. I would agree that Devon provided fewer entertaining moments than Fabio, but was significantly more strategic and had much better connections to alliances within his respective game. As for what you wrote about Chrissy's smugness, that's part of why I think Devon probably beats her in a Final 3 of Devon-Chrissy-Ryan. (And I agree with Ryan not having a shot; I didn't remember all the details of the jury speaks videos but I knew in general that Ryan really wasn't respected by the jury.) I think Chrissy gets Mike and Ashley for sure, and Devon gets Lauren and Desi for sure (I read an interview, not worth linking, where Desi really trashed Chrissy). I think Joe leans Devon because of the verbal spats he had with Chrissy from the merge until he was voted out. Chrissy apparently thought she had JP's vote against Ben, but later figured out that JP voted for Ben because JP had a "man's man" type-attitude, so I think Devon would have at least had a shot at JP's vote (because I don't think Devon was seen as lazy like Ryan was). I'm not too sure about Cole, but he clearly wasn't that enamored with Chrissy since he voted for Ben. And for Ben himself, who would have been on the jury if the Final 3 was Devon-Chrissy-Ryan...in some interviews I read I think he did have some respect for Chrissy's game, but I think some of that came from getting to watch it play out on TV. Ben did apparently bond with the other players who were parents, so I guess since Chrissy was a parent, Ben would probably lean toward her, but I also don't think Devon came off as smug to him like Chrissy did. So...put it all together and I think Devon probably wins 5-3, with no votes for Ryan.
I found this thread on Reddit that really digs into the possible Devon, Chrissy and Ryan final three. The author concludes that the most likely outcome is that Devon wins 5-2-1, with Devon getting Mike, Ashley, Lauren, Cole and Desi. Ashley surprised me, but apparently she had forgiven Devon by the time he got to Ponderosa. It wouldn't be the first time that an upset juror had a change of heart (e.g. Kat voting for Kim, Heidi voting for Jenna, Rupert voting for Sandra in Heroes v. Villains) once they were out of the game. Actually, after watching that Ponderosa video, I almost think she's a lock for Devon. The author concluded that Chrissy would get JP and Joe, and Ryan would get Ben. The two swing votes are Lauren and Ashley, but both lean Devon.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 5, 2021 23:08:54 GMT -5
I finished HHH, and the finale was fairly good in a vacuum. Ben was so close to winning the final immunity, but he had an upside down "U," and he ended up dropping most of his tiles, and he never recovered. This was pretty dramatic, and I thought the Final Tribal Council was pretty interesting. I prefer the old format where the jurors each have their own segment rather than the open forum, but this particular one was handled very well by the jurors. It was pretty clear that the jurors didn't have much respect for Ryan's game, and they weren't really buying his excuses for his laziness. I thought Desi was a real standout both for this and also asking Chrissy and Ryan why Ben was allowed to keep go searching for idols on his own, which they didn't have an adequate answer for. I'd like to see her get a second chance. Both Ben and Chrissy had good speeches at the end, but I think the jury ultimately respected Ben and his game more.
If Ben had won the game without the last-minute production interference, I would have felt reasonably good about it. He certainly had his flaws, but he had a lot of strengths too. Unfortunately, I don't view the win as wholly legitimate, even though it's not his fault. I think that Devon played the best game of the final four players and was the rightful winner, as I don't see him losing unless he completely bombs at Final Tribal Council, and I doubt that he would.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 5, 2021 23:22:41 GMT -5
I have updated my ongoing season rankings as follows:
Tier 1 1. Winners at War 2. Pearl Islands 3. Cagayan 4. Heroes v. Villains Tier 2 5. David v. Goliath 6. Cambodia 7. China 8. Tocantins Tier 3 9. Philippines 10. Blood v. Water 11. Millennials v. Gen X 12. Panama 13. Samoa 14. Kaoh Rong 15. Nicaragua Tier 3.5 16. Vanuatu 17. Amazon 18. Australia 19. Borneo 20. Africa Tier 4 21. Cook Islands 22. Game Changers 23. Micronesia 24. San Juan del Sur 25. HHH 26. Worlds Apart 27. Fiji 28. Caramoan 29. Guatemala Tier 5 30. South Pacific 31. Gabon 32. Palau 33. One World 34. All Stars 35. Thailand 36. Marquesas 37. Redemption Island
HHH wasn't a bad season through most of it, but the production interference keeps it out of the top 20. Next up is Ghost Island.
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Post by carsonvega on Sept 6, 2021 21:27:38 GMT -5
All very reasonable points. I don't really disagree with anything. As for fire making at final four, I'm not opposed to it in philosophy, as long as everyone knows about it well in advance (i.e. by the start of the merge at the absolute latest). My issue is that it was sprung on the players at the last second and basically led to an illegitimate winner. I don't blame Ben for this, as it wasn't his idea. But production irreparably tainted the season by doing this. I feel the same way about the surprise final two in Micronesia and the surprise final three (with Yul's broken super idol that worked through final four no less) in Cook Islands. Thankfully, Cagayan was able to avert the same fate thanks to the brilliance of Tony somehow convincing Woo to take him to the end. The other thing about fire making is that if it's part of the game, the idols need to expire by final six at the latest, so everyone has to survive at least one vote or win immunity. Edit: I was trying to think of who Chrissy reminded me of, as it had been nagging at me all season, and I figured it out, but it's not another Survivor player. It's Lydia from Breaking Bad. Both are very smart, but both also think they're the smartest person in every situation and are incredibly arrogant about their own aggrandized self-perception. People like that are really annoying, so it's fun to see them get their comeuppance. I agree that the fire making final four is fair if everyone knows about it in advance. The start of the merge is probably fair, although the start of the game is even better, because the last vote or two before the likely merge (with about 12-13 people left in most seasons these days) is a great time to pick off players who are likely to be very good at individual immunity challenges and/or who have lots of allies on the other tribe(s). I also agree that there have been some other twists that were as bad as the fire making twist in HHH. Although Pearl Islands had a good ending with Sandra winning, the Outcast twist was way out of bounds compared to anything the producers had ever done up to that point, and I think there are still people to this day who believe that the Outcasts had a significantly more cushy living arrangement than the show tried to make the audience believe. (This is probably why the seasons with Redemption Island and the Edge of Extinction have gone to significant lengths to show what the voted out contestants are doing every episode.) Another really unfair twist was the "bottle" twist in Cook Islands, where the Raro tribe had to vote out two people back-to-back after losing just a single immunity challenge. I'm not surprised that that twist has not been brought back to date. You're right about the surprise Cook Islands Final 3 and Yul's super idol being bad, too. I remember at the time Cook Islands originally aired, a lot of people felt like the show was jumping the shark. Fortunately, most of the worst parts of the Cook Islands were not brought back in another season.
The surprise final 2 in Micronesia was bad primarily because without any final vote tiebreaking rules known, none of the contestants could have predicted that the show would have an even-numbered jury. After Micronesia, however, I think any contestant who is serious about watching previous seasons and trying to win the game really needs to have a plan to win with a Final 3, and with a Final 2 if the producers decide to use that. In other words, if Woo had voted out Tony in Cagayan and won, I don't think I would have felt that Cagayan was tainted. (Certainly Tony has a lot more Survivor prowess than Woo, though, and is more entertaining, so the series as a whole probably would have been worse off. But I could totally have seen them bringing back Tony and Tony winning on his second chance, like what happened to Jeremy.)
As for Breaking Bad, unfortunately I must admit that I haven't seen it. But the type of person who thinks they're the smartest person in every situation is a relatively common character in a lot of different shows. I'm undoubtedly showing my nerdiness here, but I am reminded of Rodney McKay from the science fiction show Stargate Atlantis. I found this thread on Reddit that really digs into the possible Devon, Chrissy and Ryan final three. The author concludes that the most likely outcome is that Devon wins 5-2-1, with Devon getting Mike, Ashley, Lauren, Cole and Desi. Ashley surprised me, but apparently she had forgiven Devon by the time he got to Ponderosa. It wouldn't be the first time that an upset juror had a change of heart (e.g. Kat voting for Kim, Heidi voting for Jenna, Rupert voting for Sandra in Heroes v. Villains) once they were out of the game. Actually, after watching that Ponderosa video, I almost think she's a lock for Devon. The author concluded that Chissy would get JP and Joe, and Ryan would get Ben. The two swing votes are Lauren and Ashley, but both lean Devon. Thanks for the links to the Reddit thread and the Ponderosa video. You're right about upset jurors finding forgiveness - based on the Ponderosa it would make sense that Ashley would be that way for Devon, although there can still be some difference in forgiving someone who you know is not going to win versus someone who could still win. As for the Reddit thread, I feel like I'm usually good at searching for information on the internet, but somehow searching for good content like that on Reddit escapes me. It's useful that quite a few of the Survivor contestants from more recent seasons (and even some of the older seasons) have done Reddit AMAs.
If Ben had won the game without the last-minute production interference, I would have felt reasonably good about it. He certainly had his flaws, but he had a lot of strengths too. Unfortunately, I don't view the win as wholly legitimate, even though it's not his fault. I think that Devon played the best game of the final four players and was the rightful winner, as I don't see him losing unless he completely bombs at Final Tribal Council, and I doubt that he would.
Have you found a Reddit thread or anything similar for a hypothetical Final 3 featuring both Ben and Devon? Based on the other thread you linked, I think Devon would be favored, but I'm not 100% sure.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 7, 2021 1:00:03 GMT -5
All very reasonable points. I don't really disagree with anything. As for fire making at final four, I'm not opposed to it in philosophy, as long as everyone knows about it well in advance (i.e. by the start of the merge at the absolute latest). My issue is that it was sprung on the players at the last second and basically led to an illegitimate winner. I don't blame Ben for this, as it wasn't his idea. But production irreparably tainted the season by doing this. I feel the same way about the surprise final two in Micronesia and the surprise final three (with Yul's broken super idol that worked through final four no less) in Cook Islands. Thankfully, Cagayan was able to avert the same fate thanks to the brilliance of Tony somehow convincing Woo to take him to the end. The other thing about fire making is that if it's part of the game, the idols need to expire by final six at the latest, so everyone has to survive at least one vote or win immunity. Edit: I was trying to think of who Chrissy reminded me of, as it had been nagging at me all season, and I figured it out, but it's not another Survivor player. It's Lydia from Breaking Bad. Both are very smart, but both also think they're the smartest person in every situation and are incredibly arrogant about their own aggrandized self-perception. People like that are really annoying, so it's fun to see them get their comeuppance. I agree that the fire making final four is fair if everyone knows about it in advance. The start of the merge is probably fair, although the start of the game is even better, because the last vote or two before the likely merge (with about 12-13 people left in most seasons these days) is a great time to pick off players who are likely to be very good at individual immunity challenges and/or who have lots of allies on the other tribe(s). I also agree that there have been some other twists that were as bad as the fire making twist in HHH. Although Pearl Islands had a good ending with Sandra winning, the Outcast twist was way out of bounds compared to anything the producers had ever done up to that point, and I think there are still people to this day who believe that the Outcasts had a significantly more cushy living arrangement than the show tried to make the audience believe. (This is probably why the seasons with Redemption Island and the Edge of Extinction have gone to significant lengths to show what the voted out contestants are doing every episode.) Another really unfair twist was the "bottle" twist in Cook Islands, where the Raro tribe had to vote out two people back-to-back after losing just a single immunity challenge. I'm not surprised that that twist has not been brought back to date. You're right about the surprise Cook Islands Final 3 and Yul's super idol being bad, too. I remember at the time Cook Islands originally aired, a lot of people felt like the show was jumping the shark. Fortunately, most of the worst parts of the Cook Islands were not brought back in another season.
The surprise final 2 in Micronesia was bad primarily because without any final vote tiebreaking rules known, none of the contestants could have predicted that the show would have an even-numbered jury. After Micronesia, however, I think any contestant who is serious about watching previous seasons and trying to win the game really needs to have a plan to win with a Final 3, and with a Final 2 if the producers decide to use that. In other words, if Woo had voted out Tony in Cagayan and won, I don't think I would have felt that Cagayan was tainted. (Certainly Tony has a lot more Survivor prowess than Woo, though, and is more entertaining, so the series as a whole probably would have been worse off. But I could totally have seen them bringing back Tony and Tony winning on his second chance, like what happened to Jeremy.)
As for Breaking Bad, unfortunately I must admit that I haven't seen it. But the type of person who thinks they're the smartest person in every situation is a relatively common character in a lot of different shows. I'm undoubtedly showing my nerdiness here, but I am reminded of Rodney McKay from the science fiction show Stargate Atlantis. I found this thread on Reddit that really digs into the possible Devon, Chrissy and Ryan final three. The author concludes that the most likely outcome is that Devon wins 5-2-1, with Devon getting Mike, Ashley, Lauren, Cole and Desi. Ashley surprised me, but apparently she had forgiven Devon by the time he got to Ponderosa. It wouldn't be the first time that an upset juror had a change of heart (e.g. Kat voting for Kim, Heidi voting for Jenna, Rupert voting for Sandra in Heroes v. Villains) once they were out of the game. Actually, after watching that Ponderosa video, I almost think she's a lock for Devon. The author concluded that Chissy would get JP and Joe, and Ryan would get Ben. The two swing votes are Lauren and Ashley, but both lean Devon. Thanks for the links to the Reddit thread and the Ponderosa video. You're right about upset jurors finding forgiveness - based on the Ponderosa it would make sense that Ashley would be that way for Devon, although there can still be some difference in forgiving someone who you know is not going to win versus someone who could still win. As for the Reddit thread, I feel like I'm usually good at searching for information on the internet, but somehow searching for good content like that on Reddit escapes me. It's useful that quite a few of the Survivor contestants from more recent seasons (and even some of the older seasons) have done Reddit AMAs.
If Ben had won the game without the last-minute production interference, I would have felt reasonably good about it. He certainly had his flaws, but he had a lot of strengths too. Unfortunately, I don't view the win as wholly legitimate, even though it's not his fault. I think that Devon played the best game of the final four players and was the rightful winner, as I don't see him losing unless he completely bombs at Final Tribal Council, and I doubt that he would.
Have you found a Reddit thread or anything similar for a hypothetical Final 3 featuring both Ben and Devon? Based on the other thread you linked, I think Devon would be favored, but I'm not 100% sure.
I agree that it would have been better to tell them about the fire making twist at the beginning of the game (in fact, Jeff did tell them right away that the tie rule from Game Changers was no longer in effect), but I think the merge is still early enough to adapt. I don't actually have a big issue with the bottle twist compared to some of the other stuff in Cook Islands. Raro could have won the challenge. I understand that Aitu had Ozzy, but still. If Raro had won the challenge, then Aitu would have had to vote two people out. And it was pre-merge, so I'm far less bothered by that one than some of the others. I actually love the Outcast twist from Pearl Islands. Ordinarily, I'm against re-entry mechanics, but that one fit so well with the theme of the season that it's the exception. I also liked that it was at the merge rather than much later with RI and EoE. And if Drake and Morgan had won the challenge, then no one gets back into the game. I also liked that the Outcasts themselves had to vote the players back in (Lil supposedly was voted out of the Outcasts so she wouldn't ruin their pre-jury trip). And I think it really shook up the gameplay, which contributed to how great the season was. Now, if the final two was Lil and Burton, I would feel a lot less good about it. But since Sandra won, I liked it. As for the conditions, Jonny Fairplay did a reunion special on his show, and Burton talked about it. From what he said, it didn't sound like they were living in a hotel the whole time. It was unprecedented, but so was the swap in Africa. As for Cagayan, I agree that it was less bad than it was in Micronesia, but I still think that a surprise final two should be avoided at all costs, as there are other ways to handle a medevac or quit at an inopportune time. In both the Philippines and Caramoan, they had a reward challenge for an advantage in the final immunity challenge (in the Philippines specifically, the final immunity challenge was the exact same one as the one in Micronesia, so what happened to Cirie is even more galling because there was a way around it). And in Kaoh Rong, they had the reward challenge to vote off a juror. Both the advantage and the ability to vote off a juror are far less game-breaking to me than a surprise final two, which will assuredly end a worthy finalist's game. As for the potential final three with Ben and Devon (I'm pretty sure Ben would put Devon in the fire making challenge against Chrissy, so Ryan would be the other finalist), I actually did look to see if there was a Reddit thread about it, and I wasn't able to find one. But I didn't look that hard.
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Post by carsonvega on Sept 7, 2021 15:31:58 GMT -5
I agree that it would have been better to tell them about the fire making twist at the beginning of the game (in fact, Jeff did tell them right away that the tie rule from Game Changers was no longer in effect), but I think the merge is still early enough to adapt. I don't actually have a big issue with the bottle twist compared to some of the other stuff in Cook Islands. Raro could have won the challenge. I understand that Aitu had Ozzy, but still. If Raro had won the challenge, then Aitu would have had to vote two people out. And it was pre-merge, so I'm far less bothered by that one than some of the others. I actually love the Outcast twist from Pearl Islands. Ordinarily, I'm against re-entry mechanics, but that one fit so well with the theme of the season that it's the exception. I also liked that it was at the merge rather than much later with RI and EoE. And if Drake and Morgan had won the challenge, then no one gets back into the game. I also liked that the Outcasts themselves had to vote the players back in (Lil supposedly was voted out of the Outcasts so she wouldn't ruin their pre-jury trip). And I think it really shook up the gameplay, which contributed to how great the season was. Now, if the final two was Lil and Burton, I would feel a lot less good about it. But since Sandra won, I liked it. As for the conditions, Jonny Fairplay did a reunion special on his show, and Burton talked about it. From what he said, it didn't sound like they were living in a hotel the whole time. It was unprecedented, but so was the swap in Africa. As for Cagayan, I agree that it was less bad than it was in Micronesia, but I still think that a surprise final two should be avoided at all costs, as there are other ways to handle a medevac or quit at an inopportune time. In both the Philippines and Caramoan, they had a reward challenge for an advantage in the final immunity challenge (in the Philippines specifically, the final immunity challenge was the exact same one as the one in Micronesia, so what happened to Cirie is even more galling because there was a way around it). And in Kaoh Rong, they had the reward challenge to vote off a juror. Both the advantage and the ability to vote off a juror are far less game-breaking to me than a surprise final two, which will assuredly end a worthy finalist's game. As for the potential final three with Ben and Devon (I'm pretty sure Ben would put Devon in the fire making challenge against Chrissy, so Ryan would be the other finalist), I actually did look to see if there was a Reddit thread about it, and I wasn't able to find one. But I didn't look that hard. For the Cook Islands bottle twist, from a simple numbers point of view (both tribes were at risk of having to vote out two members back-to-back), sure, it doesn't seem too bad. But for me, at least, there's a lot more that goes into it than that. One of the underrated (from my point of view) parts of strategy during the tribal part of the game is who ends up sitting out of challenges when one tribe is larger than the other(s). In Cook Islands, because of the mutiny which the producers included, the tribes were of course really unbalanced leading up to the bottle twist. So only one member of Raro could have participated in both the reward challenge and the bottle twist immunity challenge in that episode. In the end, the surprise second boot ended up being Jenny, who had absolutely no ability to have even tried to win the immunity challenge attached to the bottle twist because she basically had to sit out of the immunity challenge. (Yes, ok, if she had been superwoman the tribe could have picked her to be the one member to play in both challenges instead of Jonathan Penner - but I think 99%+ of female contestants would be fighting a real uphill battle to try to get to participate in both challenges in a setup like this, in any season.) If the producers had revealed that a double vote off for one immunity challenge loss was coming before the reward challenge in that episode, I think it would have been more fair, but still pretty bad overall. Jenny still would have had no control over Jonathan Penner and Candice deciding to mutiny and making the tribes be so unbalanced. (Obviously, when the tribes became so unbalanced solely due to challenge losses by one tribe, like Ulong in Palau, I don't have a problem with that.) As for Ozzy...he was only allowed to swim one of the four legs for that challenge (unlike the bodyboard challenge in South Pacific), so I didn't feel like him being there necessarily made the bottle twist worse - although the producers may well have included swimming as a prominent part of that challenge to help Aitu, who knows. I do think that that particular challenge overall was pretty ordinary, though, for having such a dramatic twist attached to it. I would have felt better about the bottle twist if it had come after a particularly grueling challenge. Maybe something like the final immunity challenge in Palau which lasted more than 12 hours, and with everyone in the game allowed to last as long as they wanted to or could (similar to how the challenge following the second swap in Gabon which led to Marcus getting voted out was an individual immunity challenge disguised as a tribal challenge). If Aitu had won in that setup...sure, I could have more easily stomached two vote offs for one loss.
For the Outcast twist, I do not dispute that it was on-theme and made for great television. But I do think twists need to be evaluated both in terms of how they actually turned out (yes, Pearl Islands did turn out great), and for how they could have turned out, and as you noted, Burton and Lil making the final two would have been ugly, and could well have happened if Burton hadn't gotten cocky and taken Jon instead of Lil on the reward at Final Five. And any amount of time in a hotel (which Jeff Probst has admitted occurred) was definitely an unfair advantage in favor of the Outcasts. There were, of course, other advantages for the Outcasts, too. For instance, they used their purple tribe fabric material (which was not at all the same as standard buffs) to build their pole to retrieve their keys in addition to twine, while Drake and Morgan only had twine. Also, they had an extra person to help build and use the pole in the final cage (and it wasn't significantly more difficult for them to free this extra person, such that the time savings provided by this extra person getting to build and use the pole was advantageous).
At the end of the day, I'm not mad about the bottle twist or the Outcast twist - they both definitely helped to change the course of their respective seasons and in the end, the outcome of each of those seasons felt right. If I had been a contestant disadvantaged by those twists in either Pearl Islands or Cook Islands, though...I would have been furious, just like I would have been if I had been Chrissy in HHH and told that I had to use the "advantage".
In Cagayan...the only medevac/quit was Lindsay pre-merge, right? So was that surprise final 2 due to Lindsay? I don't remember reading anything one way or the other about that.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 7, 2021 16:51:43 GMT -5
I agree that it would have been better to tell them about the fire making twist at the beginning of the game (in fact, Jeff did tell them right away that the tie rule from Game Changers was no longer in effect), but I think the merge is still early enough to adapt. I don't actually have a big issue with the bottle twist compared to some of the other stuff in Cook Islands. Raro could have won the challenge. I understand that Aitu had Ozzy, but still. If Raro had won the challenge, then Aitu would have had to vote two people out. And it was pre-merge, so I'm far less bothered by that one than some of the others. I actually love the Outcast twist from Pearl Islands. Ordinarily, I'm against re-entry mechanics, but that one fit so well with the theme of the season that it's the exception. I also liked that it was at the merge rather than much later with RI and EoE. And if Drake and Morgan had won the challenge, then no one gets back into the game. I also liked that the Outcasts themselves had to vote the players back in (Lil supposedly was voted out of the Outcasts so she wouldn't ruin their pre-jury trip). And I think it really shook up the gameplay, which contributed to how great the season was. Now, if the final two was Lil and Burton, I would feel a lot less good about it. But since Sandra won, I liked it. As for the conditions, Jonny Fairplay did a reunion special on his show, and Burton talked about it. From what he said, it didn't sound like they were living in a hotel the whole time. It was unprecedented, but so was the swap in Africa. As for Cagayan, I agree that it was less bad than it was in Micronesia, but I still think that a surprise final two should be avoided at all costs, as there are other ways to handle a medevac or quit at an inopportune time. In both the Philippines and Caramoan, they had a reward challenge for an advantage in the final immunity challenge (in the Philippines specifically, the final immunity challenge was the exact same one as the one in Micronesia, so what happened to Cirie is even more galling because there was a way around it). And in Kaoh Rong, they had the reward challenge to vote off a juror. Both the advantage and the ability to vote off a juror are far less game-breaking to me than a surprise final two, which will assuredly end a worthy finalist's game. As for the potential final three with Ben and Devon (I'm pretty sure Ben would put Devon in the fire making challenge against Chrissy, so Ryan would be the other finalist), I actually did look to see if there was a Reddit thread about it, and I wasn't able to find one. But I didn't look that hard. For the Cook Islands bottle twist, from a simple numbers point of view (both tribes were at risk of having to vote out two members back-to-back), sure, it doesn't seem too bad. But for me, at least, there's a lot more that goes into it than that. One of the underrated (from my point of view) parts of strategy during the tribal part of the game is who ends up sitting out of challenges when one tribe is larger than the other(s). In Cook Islands, because of the mutiny which the producers included, the tribes were of course really unbalanced leading up to the bottle twist. So only one member of Raro could have participated in both the reward challenge and the bottle twist immunity challenge in that episode. In the end, the surprise second boot ended up being Jenny, who had absolutely no ability to have even tried to win the immunity challenge attached to the bottle twist because she basically had to sit out of the immunity challenge. (Yes, ok, if she had been superwoman the tribe could have picked her to be the one member to play in both challenges instead of Jonathan Penner - but I think 99%+ of female contestants would be fighting a real uphill battle to try to get to participate in both challenges in a setup like this, in any season.) If the producers had revealed that a double vote off for one immunity challenge loss was coming before the reward challenge in that episode, I think it would have been more fair, but still pretty bad overall. Jenny still would have had no control over Jonathan Penner and Candice deciding to mutiny and making the tribes be so unbalanced. (Obviously, when the tribes became so unbalanced solely due to challenge losses by one tribe, like Ulong in Palau, I don't have a problem with that.) As for Ozzy...he was only allowed to swim one of the four legs for that challenge (unlike the bodyboard challenge in South Pacific), so I didn't feel like him being there necessarily made the bottle twist worse - although the producers may well have included swimming as a prominent part of that challenge to help Aitu, who knows. I do think that that particular challenge overall was pretty ordinary, though, for having such a dramatic twist attached to it. I would have felt better about the bottle twist if it had come after a particularly grueling challenge. Maybe something like the final immunity challenge in Palau which lasted more than 12 hours, and with everyone in the game allowed to last as long as they wanted to or could (similar to how the challenge following the second swap in Gabon which led to Marcus getting voted out was an individual immunity challenge disguised as a tribal challenge). If Aitu had won in that setup...sure, I could have more easily stomached two vote offs for one loss.
For the Outcast twist, I do not dispute that it was on-theme and made for great television. But I do think twists need to be evaluated both in terms of how they actually turned out (yes, Pearl Islands did turn out great), and for how they could have turned out, and as you noted, Burton and Lil making the final two would have been ugly, and could well have happened if Burton hadn't gotten cocky and taken Jon instead of Lil on the reward at Final Five. And any amount of time in a hotel (which Jeff Probst has admitted occurred) was definitely an unfair advantage in favor of the Outcasts. There were, of course, other advantages for the Outcasts, too. For instance, they used their purple tribe fabric material (which was not at all the same as standard buffs) to build their pole to retrieve their keys in addition to twine, while Drake and Morgan only had twine. Also, they had an extra person to help build and use the pole in the final cage (and it wasn't significantly more difficult for them to free this extra person, such that the time savings provided by this extra person getting to build and use the pole was advantageous).
At the end of the day, I'm not mad about the bottle twist or the Outcast twist - they both definitely helped to change the course of their respective seasons and in the end, the outcome of each of those seasons felt right. If I had been a contestant disadvantaged by those twists in either Pearl Islands or Cook Islands, though...I would have been furious, just like I would have been if I had been Chrissy in HHH and told that I had to use the "advantage".
In Cagayan...the only medevac/quit was Lindsay pre-merge, right? So was that surprise final 2 due to Lindsay? I don't remember reading anything one way or the other about that. I think the bottle twist is definitely a bit unfair. Just on my list of grievances with Cook Islands, I'm not sure it's in the top three. I think it's more along the lines of Silas getting screwed by the first ever swap in Africa, which most people don't bring up because people didn't like Silas. Now that I think of it, the mutiny itself was probably more unfair than the bottle twist was, even if the result of it forced the remaining Aitus together like they never had been, and they eventually won the battle. I believe that if Aitu had lost again prior to the merge and without the mutiny, Ozzy was the one that Yul wanted to vote out next. As for the Outcasts, that interview with Jeff is interesting. Burton said when he was voted out, he asked for food, and they told him no. He also said he lost more weight as a member of the Outcasts than he did in the time before he got voted out because the rationing was so strict. So for both stories to match up, the decision must have been made sometime after Nicole was voted out but sometime before Burton was voted out. That means the only people who could have potentially benefited were Nicole, Skinny Ryan and Lil. So yes, it's a little unfair, but I don't think those three were the reason the Outcasts won. You make fair points about the fabric (though Burton claims the way Lil used it was actually a hindrance) and the extra person, but I don't think those were decisive factors. The main thing is that Burton basically turned in to the Michael Jordan of Survivor during that challenge and just was not going to lose. I totally agree with you that if I had been a contestant that was victimized by one of those twists, I would have been furious as well. Andrew Savage probably got onto the Second Chance ballot in large part because of his protestations that he was screwed by the Outcasts coming back into the game. But since these twists happened earlier, it's not as clear that they potentially caused the wrong person to win the way the late-game twists did. I do agree that the twists should be evaluated based on both the results and the potential results, which is why I don't need to see the Outcast twist ever again. Certainly, if they were to ever do it again, they absolutely should let the players know about it at the start of the game so they can account for it. Finally, for Cagayan, yes, I believe that the final two was a result of Lindsay quitting immediately after Cliff got voted out and disrupting the production schedule because there were only 18 players on that season rather than 20 in some other seasons, which allows for some more flexibility. But production had faced this situation before (and much later in the game) when Erik was medevaced immediately after Brenda got voted out in Caramoan, and they opted for the less disruptive advantage in the final immunity challenge. Imagine if that if they had gone with a surprise final two because Erik got medevaced, and Cochran lost the extra immunity challenge and got voted out. Then, we're stuck with either Dawn or Sherri winning. I shudder at the thought.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2021 17:47:58 GMT -5
The fire making twist is bad.
I know most (all) of you don't watch Australian Survivor (you really should) but they just had one of the most interesting final fours I've seen. No twists, no gimmicks, nothing but social and strategic gameplay and relying on the relationships they've made over the 40 or whatever days it is.
It was refreshing.
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Post by carsonvega on Sept 7, 2021 19:15:56 GMT -5
Australian survivor started last night/today (we love timezones) if you need a link, I can get you one. Their theme is Brains vs Brawn this season The fire making twist is bad. I know most (all) of you don't watch Australian Survivor (you really should) but they just had one of the most interesting final fours I've seen. No twists, no gimmicks, nothing but social and strategic gameplay and relying on the relationships they've made over the 40 or whatever days it is. It was refreshing. Ok, challenge accepted. Please PM me a link (if you still have one you're willing to share). Thanks!
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 7, 2021 21:28:14 GMT -5
The fire making twist is bad. Eh, I don't have strong opinions on it either way, except for the HHH version because it was last second. Relatedly, I think final threes are better than final twos, but I don't have a problem with a planned final two like the one in Tocantins. Just no production interference at final four. Also, idols shouldn't work at final five. If they wanted to go back to the regular final four format, I'd be fine with that. The overabundance of idols and advantages is a bigger issue.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 9, 2021 22:16:41 GMT -5
I started on Ghost Island. The twist of the misplayed idols and advantages being part of the game seems fairly interesting. I don't have strong feelings on most of the cast (I probably don't even know half of their names yet), but the first two players voted out were both pretty bad. Gonzalez seemed like she was actually a pretty good player (strong, smart, etc.), but she made the classic mistake of overplaying right out of the gate. She actually stood up and walked around at the first tribal council to try to make sure everyone was going to stick with the plan. Normally, I strongly dislike voting out strong physical players first unless they just don't give you much of a choice (e.g. Shannon in Nicaragua). Well, I don't think Gonzalez gave them much of a choice, unfortunately.
But the second boot, Jacob, was far worse. He was only spared from being the first boot because the other tribe sent him to Ghost Island. He was a virtual lock to get voted out if he was around, as he seemed to rub almost everyone the wrong way immediately with his poor social game. He was also obviously looking for an idol, and he made a very unconvincing fake immunity idol that he tried to bluff with. But then Stephanie pretended to take interest in him for about five minutes, and he just gave up all his information about how the idol was fake and that he had given the Legacy Advantage to Morgan on the other tribe. The editors actually led me to believe that this tribe was going to foolishly keep him around and vote out one of their stronger players, but they fortunately didn't. I think he's the worst Survivor player since the triumvirate of David, Garrett and J'Tia in Cagayan or maybe the worst since Laura Boneham in BvW.
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Post by carsonvega on Sept 14, 2021 21:05:13 GMT -5
I think the bottle twist is definitely a bit unfair. Just on my list of grievances with Cook Islands, I'm not sure it's in the top three. I think it's more along the lines of Silas getting screwed by the first ever swap in Africa, which most people don't bring up because people didn't like Silas. Now that I think of it, the mutiny itself was probably more unfair than the bottle twist was, even if the result of it forced the remaining Aitus together like they never had been, and they eventually won the battle. I believe that if Aitu had lost again prior to the merge and without the mutiny, Ozzy was the one that Yul wanted to vote out next. As for the Outcasts, that interview with Jeff is interesting. Burton said when he was voted out, he asked for food, and they told him no. He also said he lost more weight as a member of the Outcasts than he did in the time before he got voted out because the rationing was so strict. So for both stories to match up, the decision must have been made sometime after Nicole was voted out but sometime before Burton was voted out. That means the only people who could have potentially benefited were Nicole, Skinny Ryan and Lil. So yes, it's a little unfair, but I don't think those three were the reason the Outcasts won. You make fair points about the fabric (though Burton claims the way Lil used it was actually a hindrance) and the extra person, but I don't think those were decisive factors. The main thing is that Burton basically turned in to the Michael Jordan of Survivor during that challenge and just was not going to lose. I totally agree with you that if I had been a contestant that was victimized by one of those twists, I would have been furious as well. Andrew Savage probably got onto the Second Chance ballot in large part because of his protestations that he was screwed by the Outcasts coming back into the game. But since these twists happened earlier, it's not as clear that they potentially caused the wrong person to win the way the late-game twists did. I do agree that the twists should be evaluated based on both the results and the potential results, which is why I don't need to see the Outcast twist ever again. Certainly, if they were to ever do it again, they absolutely should let the players know about it at the start of the game so they can account for it. Finally, for Cagayan, yes, I believe that the final two was a result of Lindsay quitting immediately after Cliff got voted out and disrupting the production schedule because there were only 18 players on that season rather than 20 in some other seasons, which allows for some more flexibility. But production had faced this situation before (and much later in the game) when Erik was medevaced immediately after Brenda got voted out in Caramoan, and they opted for the less disruptive advantage in the final immunity challenge. Imagine if that if they had gone with a surprise final two because Erik got medevaced, and Cochran lost the extra immunity challenge and got voted out. Then, we're stuck with either Dawn or Sherri winning. I shudder at the thought. I would still say that the bottle twist is significantly worse than the first swap ever that screwed Silas. Specifically in the case of Silas, I don't think the season changes that much if there's no swap. The division between the older members of Samburu and the younger members of Samburu (often called the Mallrats) ran really, really deep. Silas definitely played a role in that division but he wasn't the only one - at least from what the edit showed, Carl bragged about his wealth, Linda seemed weird and like she was trying too hard, Frank was really hard-nosed, Lindsey was annoying, etc. There are three scenarios that could play out if there was no swap:
1) Samburu wins both immunity challenges (with 12 players left and with 11 players left): Boran probably votes out Clarence and then either Kelly Goldsmith or Kim Johnson. Samburu is ahead 6-4 at the merge...but Teresa and Frank know they'll never make it to the end with the Mallrats and flip to vote with Boran. Silas goes as soon as he doesn't have immunity post-merge. 2) The immunity challenges at 12 left and 11 left are split 1-1 between Samburu and Boran: Boran probably votes out Clarence, Samburu probably votes out Frank. Teresa still flips, Silas still goes as soon as he doesn't have immunity post-merge. 3) Boran wins both immunity challenges at 12 left and 11 left: Frank and Teresa are voted out. Clarence could flip to the Samburus, but Clarence, Silas, and Lindsey all lose a 5-5 tie vote at the merge due to past votes - none of Ethan/Kim J/Lex/Tom/Kelly would have any votes against them in this scenario.
To be fair, as the season actually played out, the original Boran members jeopardized their chances of winning by voting Kelly out too early (I've heard some people describe Lex's search for whoever voted for him at the Final 10 tribal council as a "witch hunt", which...has at least some truth to it given that Kelly was innocent). So I guess one could argue that, if Silas won immunity at the first few individual immunity challenges after the merge, Boran might have screwed up just as they actually did. But if the tribes were evenly divided at the merge, I don't think Lex would be surprised if the Mallrats voted for him (and he would win the tie if the votes were tied as I described above), and so the witch hunt probably never happens. Apart from Silas specifically, the swap twist in general just feels way more reasonable than the bottle twist because any player who is good at getting people to like them can potentially navigate their way through a swap, no matter what happens. There have of course been plenty of examples of winners who did well after a swap (in the seasons after Africa) - Vecepia didn't get voted out even though she was in the minority on Rotu after the Marquesas swap; Parvati picked up Alexis and Natalie as allies (to later use to get Ozzy out, and ultimately vote for her to win) in Micronesia after the swap; Adam in Millennials vs. Gen. X formed an alliance with Jessica and Ken that ultimately resulted in him sitting next to Ken who he could easily beat in the Final Tribal Council (albeit not without mistakes involving other players along the way, but that doesn't take away from Jessica and Ken being good alliance partners for him)...etc.
As for Burton and the Outcasts twist - I watched the part of the video you linked about that. Burton says he wasn't given extra food, but I didn't hear him specifically mention where the Outcasts were sleeping. So...I think the Outcasts were probably allowed to sleep in the hotel but just didn't get extra food (because either the hotel didn't serve food or the producers made sure that the hotel ignored all of the Outcasts' requests). Sleeping in a real bed is better than what the contestants in the game had - and all of the Outcasts except Trish (based on what she said, because she was voted out the latest) would have gotten multiple nights to sleep in the hotel. With respect to the purple material Lil used to tie the pole together, Burton said that Lil tied it badly, but somehow it was still holding the pole together near where Burton's hands were when Burton was using it to get the final key...so somehow it got fixed during the challenge (could have been Nicole, Ryan, Trish, or Michelle who fixed it, who knows). Given its width, and the fact that it didn't get shredded as it was being used during the challenge (so it was not of poor quality)...it was an advantage. Also, not everything that was said in that video was accurate. Jonny Fairplay said that Lil was voted back into the game because Michelle and Nicole did not want to go on the vacation for pre-jury members with her on it - but Michelle did not vote for Lil to get back into the game. Michelle voted for Nicole and Burton; Lil's 3 votes came from Nicole, Ryan (which makes sense as they were allies on Morgan), and Trish (which makes sense because they were comparatively close in life experience and Lil similarly voted for Trish). I suppose Michelle probably told Jonny Fairplay post-game that she was glad to be away from Lil, but she did not vote to set up the pre-jury trip in that way. With all that said, I will agree that once the producers decided to do the Outcast twist, Burton was in all probability going to win that challenge for the Outcasts regardless.
Thinking about Caramoan versus Cagayan and Final 2 versus Final 3 - I know some fans believed at the time it aired (and probably still do) that the producers' favorite in Caramoan was Cochran. The challenge to give the advantage in the final immunity challenge...mostly makes sense as something the producers would perceive as being likely for Cochran to win, given that it was balance/mental based, and not pure strength or speed, which likely would have favored Eddie. So there may be an argument that Ben in HHH was not the first time the producers maneuvered late game to try to get a specific winner. With that in mind, do you think that the producers wanted Woo to win Cagayan and made it a final 2 for that reason? (I know the producers got a lot of mileage out of "Chaos Kass" - but I thought it was very obvious that Kass was not going to win Cagayan whether it was Final 2 or Final 3 - maybe I'm not right about that.)
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