bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 7, 2020 7:29:09 GMT -5
Case numbers have declined because some states (re)imposed restrictions This claim has pretty much been proven false.
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Post by mervinswerved on Aug 7, 2020 7:36:49 GMT -5
And a huge number also disagree with you. Yep - people cannot understand the other position (both sides). Oh, I think it's pretty easy to understand the other side's position. It's just that they're wrong.
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Post by oldnewbie on Aug 7, 2020 7:49:05 GMT -5
Confirmed cases have been decreasing for the last two weeks (the peak 7-day average was 23-Jul). However, that was also close to the peak for the number of tests performed! If we were performing the same number of tests, we would very likely have more confirmed cases. Worse, the states where there are hotspots are decreasing their testing even more than average. * New York INCREASED the number of tests they performed by 7.4% over that time period... but they aren't a hotspot any more. Only 1% of their tests are positive. * Texas has DECREASED the number of tests they performed by 28% over that time period... they are a hotspot, and while number of confirmed cases has dropped, it's because they are testing less. The percent-positive went from 14.7% up to 16.5%. * California might be doing better. Their number of tests performed stayed constant over the time period, while the number of confirmed cases per day has dropped significantly. Note that nine days before that 23-Jul national peak, CA re-imposed restrictions on activities. Case numbers have declined because some states (re)imposed restrictions, and because other states reduced their testing. (Test less, find less) I wouldn't read much into that. California's case numbers are inaccurate right now. Some of the county dashboards say something like
"Due to a significant and unresolved problem with the State of California’s reporting system for communicable diseases (California Reportable Disease Information Exchange [CalREDIE]), San Mateo County Health, as well as county public health departments statewide, are experiencing significant underreporting of COVID-19 testing results. The State has confirmed that the test results data we have received is valid, but incomplete. We do not yet know the extent of this issue or when the State will be able to resolve it, but we are in communication with the State along with all the counties and will support their efforts to rapidly resolve this issue. We are also working closely with the State to implement parallel procedures to assure our staff can continue to conduct effective contact tracing and case investigations to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in our community. Until we receive confirmation from the State that the data is once again being fully reported, members of the public should assume that any dashboard elements that rely on test results are incomplete. We have temporarily removed some dashboards from this website until there is resolution of this problem."
OTOH, California's reported hospitalization rate, which is presumably unaffected by the glitch, has also been going down. (On 8-3, it was down 11% from the peak.) That is probably at least partially due to fewer cases but could also be due to things like a higher percentage of younger ppl in the group of ppl who are affected.
It's going down in California because a month ago the governor shut things down again. The quarantine measures were working. Open things up too soon, especially opening up Southern California to summer tourists from hotspots in Arizona and the Central Valley, and it immediately spiked. California schools will not open campuses to students to start this fall, by order of the governor. At least for now that order extends to the 10 Big West schools that aren't Hawai'i, the California WCC (San Diego, LMU, Pepperdine, Pacific, Santa Clara) and Stanford, USC, Cal and UCLA. That big four, of course, is still pretending fall sports will happen. The others are not.
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Post by oldnewbie on Aug 7, 2020 7:52:47 GMT -5
Case numbers have declined because some states (re)imposed restrictions This claim has pretty much been proven false. Not sure how you make this claim. I'm sure there is variance case to case. In California the effect of opening up too soon was very clear.
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Post by JT on Aug 7, 2020 8:44:20 GMT -5
Case numbers have declined because some states (re)imposed restrictions This claim has pretty much been proven false. I’d be interested in seeing the evidence of that. Got any links?
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Post by baytree on Aug 7, 2020 8:56:02 GMT -5
I wouldn't read much into that. California's case numbers are inaccurate right now. Some of the county dashboards say something like
"Due to a significant and unresolved problem with the State of California’s reporting system for communicable diseases (California Reportable Disease Information Exchange [CalREDIE]), San Mateo County Health, as well as county public health departments statewide, are experiencing significant underreporting of COVID-19 testing results. The State has confirmed that the test results data we have received is valid, but incomplete. We do not yet know the extent of this issue or when the State will be able to resolve it, but we are in communication with the State along with all the counties and will support their efforts to rapidly resolve this issue. We are also working closely with the State to implement parallel procedures to assure our staff can continue to conduct effective contact tracing and case investigations to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in our community. Until we receive confirmation from the State that the data is once again being fully reported, members of the public should assume that any dashboard elements that rely on test results are incomplete. We have temporarily removed some dashboards from this website until there is resolution of this problem."
OTOH, California's reported hospitalization rate, which is presumably unaffected by the glitch, has also been going down. (On 8-3, it was down 11% from the peak.) That is probably at least partially due to fewer cases but could also be due to things like a higher percentage of younger ppl in the group of ppl who are affected.
It's going down in California because a month ago the governor shut things down again. The quarantine measures were working. Open things up too soon, especially opening up Southern California to summer tourists from hotspots in Arizona and the Central Valley, and it immediately spiked. California schools will not open campuses to students to start this fall, by order of the governor. At least for now that order extends to the 10 Big West schools that aren't Hawai'i, the California WCC (San Diego, LMU, Pepperdine, Pacific, Santa Clara) and Stanford, USC, Cal and UCLA. That big four, of course, is still pretending fall sports will happen. The others are not. I think you're right and I hope you are. I'd like to see the numbers.
Most of the Bay Area's numbers were also going up and few (none really) of the counties had re-opened. When they got put on the watch list (where there are more restrictions), there were no new restrictions bc the prohibited activities (e.g., indoor dining) were already prohibited. They hadn't allowed it since the original SiP order. (One county had allowed it for two or three days but that wasn't long enough to show up in increased cases.)
I think most ppl in NorCal blamed SoCal and the Central Valley but was that correct? It's easy to blame other ppl and feel virtuous when you're sacrificing and think you're doing everything right but were we doing everything right? Cases were increasing, positivity rate was increasing, hospitalizations were increasing. It turns out that the hospitalizations may have been bc CA was bringing ppl in from other parts of CA, e.g., Imperial County, and bc San Quentin had a really bad outbreak (bc they stupidly brought prisoners in from Chino in order to protect them from COVID, instead they spread it). But the state isn't transparent about how they count hospitalizations so no one I've talked to is sure if, e.g., the ppl from Imperial County count toward Santa Clara County's hospitalizations or Imperial County's.
I think that Newsom opened things up too soon, mostly bc of pressure from rural areas and Orange County (and other counties surrounding LA County). I think that led to the high rates we see now. But the Bay Area did not open up and its rates still went up a lot. So what was going on there? Was it bc of CA moving ppl in from other parts of the state or was it something else?
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 7, 2020 9:25:56 GMT -5
This claim has pretty much been proven false. I’d be interested in seeing the evidence of that. Got any links? The correlation between cases and when states open (reopen) or lockdown hasn't been very good. For the month of July there has been 4 hotspots widely mentioned (Arizona, California, Texas, & Florida). The data you have reported is cherry picked since 7/23. Looking at the % reduction in cases for those 4 states since 7/23 (compared to yesterday) per COVID Tracking Project: California - 35.9% Florida - 33.9% Arizona - 29.9% Texas - 19.1% If we pick another date - say 7/15 - it looks like this: Arizona - 41.6% Florida - 37.2% California - 23.5% Texas - 10.4% Here are all 50 states % reduction in cases since 7/23. Tell me the correlation found between state restrictions from this list? New Mexico - 40.7% California - 35.9% Florida - 33.9% Arizona - 29.9% Vermont - 26.9% South Carolina - 26.3% Utah - 24.3% Idaho - 21.9% Maine - 21.6% Texas - 19.1% Ohio - 18.2% North Carolina - 17.8% Washington - 17.8% Alabama - 17.5% Mississippi - 17.4% Delaware - 16.5% Louisiana - 16.2% Nevada - 15.9% Wyoming - 15.0% Tennessee - 12.7% Georgia - 10.7% Kansas - 10.2% Colorado - 9.9% Wisconsin - 9.6% Pennsylvania - 7.9% New York - 7.4% District of Columbia - 6.9% Iowa - 5.1% Oregon - 5.0% Kentucky - 4.8% West Virginia - 4.3% Alaska - -1.8% Virginia - -2.3% Arkansas - -2.4% Indiana - -4.3% Michigan - -6.2% North Dakota - -6.2% Maryland - -12.7% Minnesota - -13.1% New Hampshire - -13.2% Montana - -16.1% Connecticut - -19.3% Oklahoma - -25.0% Illinois - -28.3% South Dakota - -31.0% Nebraska - -37.2% Missouri - -48.8% Rhode Island - -51.3% Massachusetts - -59.6% New Jersey - -97.0% Hawaii - -528.0%
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Post by oldnewbie on Aug 7, 2020 9:35:31 GMT -5
I think you're right and I hope you are. I'd like to see the numbers.
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This guy has been compiling data and crunching numbers for a couple of months at least. He does a really good job and has a lot of very interesting info. He has an update most days. It is California centric, but the data and info goes much wider. https://www.reddit.com/r/sandiego/comments/i5609p/covid_update_aug_6_2020_open_the_schools_now/
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,437
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 7, 2020 9:38:14 GMT -5
Yep - people cannot understand the other position (both sides). Oh, I think it's pretty easy to understand the other side's position. It's just that they're wrong. I think this shows you don't understand - and that is what I keep saying. You could very well be right that 'they're wrong' - but this issue has their camps mostly on one side or the other. And neither can understand why the other side thinks the way they do.
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Post by oldman on Aug 7, 2020 9:53:37 GMT -5
If you really look at the data without all the hysteria you will see that the virus will do what the virus will do. Shutdowns have little effect on the total number of cases OVER TIME. You can slow the spread but you can not stop the spread. So the questions is do we have to many cases at one time to provide the medical care to sick people. To date no one has been turned away from a hospital here in the US. New York even at the peak did not use the overflow hospitals in any meaningful way.
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Post by northwoods on Aug 7, 2020 10:07:25 GMT -5
Do you know that 2.8 Million people died in 2017! That’s 233,000+ EVERY MONTH!! How did we manage to do anything, let alone sports that year.... 215,800 were caused by Pneumonia & lower respiratory disease while COVID is at 159,000 ytd. With all our medical technology the US should be way ahead of solving this death problem. What is so silly about this line of thinking is that not only does Covid kill so many at risk (and some not at risk), it also is proving to cause damage to organs, particularly the lungs. Liver and heart aftereffects have also been noted. I'm not interested in putting thousands of children and young adults at risk for the effects they will see later in their lives. Once a vaccine is readily available for this virus, I've got no problem. So, it’s the effects long term now, that they May see later in life that are prompting your advocacy of shutting down the activities thousands of children and young adults love? Long term effects of a virus that has been known for 6 months....😉 Consider taking a step back and releasing Your Control over these thousands of children & young adults, and letting them & their parents decide if they feel safe in the environment of masking testing and social distancing that universities are providing them.
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Post by volleylearner on Aug 7, 2020 10:07:30 GMT -5
I think that Newsom opened things up too soon, mostly bc of pressure from rural areas and Orange County (and other counties surrounding LA County). I think that led to the high rates we see now. But the Bay Area did not open up and its rates still went up a lot. So what was going on there? Was it bc of CA moving ppl in from other parts of the state or was it something else? COVID spread is related to actual behavior, not government orders, particularly with respect to social interactions. Of course it is possible there is a strong correlation between government orders and behavior, but I'm not so sure that is the situation in the Bay Area, for example. It could be that the behavior is actually more related to the numbers themselves--that is, people are more careful when they see that cases/hospitalizations/deaths are going up in their area. This is just speculation, of course. There isn't any easy way to verify one way or the other.
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Post by baytree on Aug 7, 2020 10:07:53 GMT -5
I think you're right and I hope you are. I'd like to see the numbers.
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This guy has been compiling data and crunching numbers for a couple of months at least. He does a really good job and has a lot of very interesting info. He has an update most days. It is California centric, but the data and info goes much wider. https://www.reddit.com/r/sandiego/comments/i5609p/covid_update_aug_6_2020_open_the_schools_now/ Thanks. This is good. But I was talking about California's recent data. It's inaccurate so I'll have to wait until they fix the glitch(es). Also, this seems not only California centric but LA centric, which doesn't address the questions I have about why the Bay Area's cases went up. For the most part, we were still locked down. Except for San Mateo County, very few things were open. The original SiP restrictions had been eased to allow, e.g., outdoor dining (with restrictions) and curbside pick-up (with restrictions) but nothing that was prohibited by being put on the watch list.
Here's a good rundown of the Bay Area's restrictions and when they were lifted
E.g., in this tweet, Newsom recommends that bars in Contra Costa County close. They hadn't been open since March 17th. (But being put on the list meant that they couldn't open in the future as long as CoCoCo was on the list. They had planned on allowing bars and indoor dining to begin on July 1st but stopped it bc of the increased cases, then weren't allowed to bc they were put on the list. )
ETA: I want more restrictions. I think if they wanted to re-open schools, they should have locked the state down (including implementing travel restrictions and quarantines for ppl coming into the state). But I think there's a lot we don't know yet. Pretty much everyone is going to be wrong about aspects of COVID, certainly including me. I'd like more data and wish the states and counties were better about collecting data and much more transparent with the data they collect.
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Post by oldnewbie on Aug 7, 2020 10:15:53 GMT -5
I’d be interested in seeing the evidence of that. Got any links? The correlation between cases and when states open (reopen) or lockdown hasn't been very good. For the month of July there has been 4 hotspots widely mentioned (Arizona, California, Texas, & Florida). The data you have reported is cherry picked since 7/23. Looking at the % reduction in cases for those 4 states since 7/23 (compared to yesterday) per COVID Tracking Project: California - 35.9% Florida - 33.9% Arizona - 29.9% Texas - 19.1% If we pick another date - say 7/15 - it looks like this: Arizona - 41.6% Florida - 37.2% California - 23.5% Texas - 10.4% Here are all 50 states % reduction in cases since 7/23. Tell me the correlation found between state restrictions from this list? New Mexico - 40.7% California - 35.9% Florida - 33.9% Arizona - 29.9% Vermont - 26.9% South Carolina - 26.3% Utah - 24.3% Idaho - 21.9% Maine - 21.6% Texas - 19.1% Ohio - 18.2% North Carolina - 17.8% Washington - 17.8% Alabama - 17.5% Mississippi - 17.4% Delaware - 16.5% Louisiana - 16.2% Nevada - 15.9% Wyoming - 15.0% Tennessee - 12.7% Georgia - 10.7% Kansas - 10.2% Colorado - 9.9% Wisconsin - 9.6% Pennsylvania - 7.9% New York - 7.4% District of Columbia - 6.9% Iowa - 5.1% Oregon - 5.0% Kentucky - 4.8% West Virginia - 4.3% Alaska - -1.8% Virginia - -2.3% Arkansas - -2.4% Indiana - -4.3% Michigan - -6.2% North Dakota - -6.2% Maryland - -12.7% Minnesota - -13.1% New Hampshire - -13.2% Montana - -16.1% Connecticut - -19.3% Oklahoma - -25.0% Illinois - -28.3% South Dakota - -31.0% Nebraska - -37.2% Missouri - -48.8% Rhode Island - -51.3% Massachusetts - -59.6% New Jersey - -97.0% Hawaii - -528.0% Here is today's chart from the COVID Tracking Project. It doesn't tell me the same story you are. It shows that after coming down off the peak of the huge spike, we are still at a level of cases double what we had in June. I'm still not sure where your claim came from that the reduction off those peaks had nothing to do with additional quarantine measures imposed as that peak was growing.
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Post by oldnewbie on Aug 7, 2020 10:19:27 GMT -5
This guy has been compiling data and crunching numbers for a couple of months at least. He does a really good job and has a lot of very interesting info. He has an update most days. It is California centric, but the data and info goes much wider. https://www.reddit.com/r/sandiego/comments/i5609p/covid_update_aug_6_2020_open_the_schools_now/ Thanks. This is good. But I was talking about California's recent data. It's inaccurate so I'll have to wait until they fix the glitch(es). Also, this seems not only California centric but LA centric, which doesn't address the questions I have about why the Bay Area's cases went up.
... I think he is technically San Diego centric, but if you look at his reports over time he goes where the data is interesting and has focused at different times on Northern California, different states and the US as a whole relative to other countries.
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