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Post by marnvbc2 on Jun 11, 2022 21:49:23 GMT -5
Do you have any clue how difficult scheduling is? This is why BYU didn't schedule tough in their non-conference last season. It was just to tough to do!? On brother, if scheduling tougher in last year's non-conference was just too tough to do: how do you explain the fact that BYU got it corrected for this fall's much better non-conf schedule? Maybe the addition of the USF coach coach to their staff did the trick? |
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Post by marnvbc2 on Jun 11, 2022 21:57:53 GMT -5
So I looked at the 2021 win/loss records of last year's non-conference opponent's versus those of the 2022 non-conference opponents. Some notes: -Records and RPI are at the time of selection. At first, I had a hard time tracking down that version of RPI, so I initially went with the final RPI, thinking it wouldn't make that much of a difference. When I eventually did find the selection RPI, I realized I was wrong. For example, UNLV won the volleyball version of the NIT, so that added five wins and zero losses when the final RPI was calculated, and their RPI increased from 61 all the way to 38. -The RPI numbers are unadjusted RPI rather than the adjusted figures. My understanding is that opponent record uses unadjusted RPI. -When calculating the opponent winning percentage component of the RPI, results against the team in question (in this case, BYU) are ignored. So for example, Utah's record at the time of selection was 21-8. But their loss to BYU is ignored in this calculation, so their record is 21-7 for this purpose. -Dixie State is transitioning to D1, so they didn't count toward BYU's RPI last season (thankfully). This leaves 10 NC games for each year. With all that out of the way, here is what I found after plugging all the numbers in a spreadsheet:  The win/loss records for last year's opponents were a combined 180-102 (.638), which actually isn't that bad. The bigger issue was the lack of quality win opportunities, with just Pitt and Utah in the top 25 and High Point in the top 50. Meanwhile, the opponents on this year's schedule had a combined win/loss record of 205-85 (.707). Pitt, Georgia Tech, Ohio State and Utah were all in the top 25, and Washington State was in the top 50, with Cincinnati just outside at 52. BYU's total 2021 opponent win/loss record (including conference) was 406-328 (.553). I calculated that if everything else stayed the same, BYU's total opponent win/loss record with the 2022 non-conference schedule would have been 431-311 (.581). I'm not exactly sure how much that would have improved BYU's RPI, but I do think 28 points in that component (which is 50% of the RPI's formula) would not have been insignificant. Now, obviously, things change from season to season. For example, I don't think Utah will be as good without Dani Drews, and I think Ohio State's record may be a bit worse just because their schedule is so difficult. Conversely, San Francisco probably won't go winless again. But this gives some idea of the kind of impact that better non-conference scheduling can have. Moving to the Big 12 should have an even larger (much larger, really) impact on BYU's RPI than scheduling a strong non-conference schedule versus an underwhelming one. The main difference is that the bottom two thirds of the WCC is a lot worse than what the bottom two thirds of the Big 12 should be. More on that at another time. But for now, I'm excited that BYU has put together a non-conference schedule that has opportunities for good wins and should test the team against strong competition prior to the tournament. I think your work in this post is great. I agree with almost all of it! |
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Post by marnvbc2 on Jun 11, 2022 22:11:15 GMT -5
Maybe you could explain the Stanford schedule of last year to everyone since you are sure that a ridiculously tough schedule is bad? They weren't that good last year but what did their schedule look like? Maybe try Nebraska's schedule also. This isn't a football schedule where a team gets beat up by playing super physical teams week after week. The teams aren't even allowed on the opponent's side of the net. Harder scheduling is needed at BYU. Neb has a super tough conference schedule and still managed to find a spot for Utah?? Good for Utah for scheduling tough. Can you read? I said Stanford in 2019, not last year. 2019 Stanford was a defending national champion with nearly everyone back. 2022 BYU isn't. I never said BYU shouldn't schedule tougher than they did last year. I've said they should many times. But they don't need the toughest schedule in the country. I never said that BYU needed the toughest schedule in the country. They need a tougher non-conf schedule .... they could have the toughest non-conf sched in the country and they still wouldn't have the toughest over-all schedule because of the WCC. Not a hard concept. Look at the highest RPI's and by and large they are the teams with really high seeds in the NCAA tourney. |
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vvv
Sophomore
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Post by vvv on Jun 12, 2022 1:40:53 GMT -5
Wow!! Thats a lot of research and numbers. Makes total sense too. Thanks for summing it all up so we can see it well.
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Jun 12, 2022 7:12:30 GMT -5
. They played Dixie last year too. |
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Post by bbg95 on Jun 12, 2022 10:26:56 GMT -5
They played Dixie last year too. I know. As I said, Dixie is transitioning to D1, so they didn't count against BYU's RPI last season. |
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BYU 2022
Jun 12, 2022 10:30:04 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2022 10:30:04 GMT -5
What are we thinking for a starting lineup this fall?
I think the only locks are Livingston, Gneiting, Bower and Grimmer. That leaves a second outside, a second middle, and Libero up for grabs.
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Post by bbg95 on Jun 12, 2022 10:36:56 GMT -5
What are we thinking for a starting lineup this fall? I think the only locks are Livingston, Gneiting, Bower and Grimmer. That leaves a second outside, a second middle, and Libero up for grabs. Yeah, that's about what I think as well. If we include two defensive specialist spots as starters (I think I would), I think McComber plays as well. |
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BYU 2022
Jun 12, 2022 13:40:01 GMT -5
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Post by beba on Jun 12, 2022 13:40:01 GMT -5
I think we will see Callahan and Llarenas.
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Post by alpo on Jun 13, 2022 14:37:56 GMT -5
I think we will see Callahan and Llarenas. |
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Post by alpo on Jun 13, 2022 14:39:21 GMT -5
It seems that in all this speculation about who will start that Elyse Stowell has been lost. She was very highly touted and I believe started a few games during her freshman year...what is the scoop on her??
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Post by bbg95 on Jun 13, 2022 14:50:50 GMT -5
It seems that in all this speculation about who will start that Elyse Stowell has been lost. She was very highly touted and I believe started a few games during her freshman year...what is the scoop on her?? Stowell didn't start. She did play some. You can see the team's stats here. Ballard-Nixon and Livingston had the outside hitter spots locked down, and Callahan (.211 hitting percentage) looked a bit more ready than Stowell (.159) did when they did play. That said, with another year of development, I wouldn't be surprised if Stowell competes for that second outside hitter spot. It's just really hard to say without seeing how she's performing in practice. |
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BYU 2022
Jun 13, 2022 19:24:54 GMT -5
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Post by beba on Jun 13, 2022 19:24:54 GMT -5
I agree with this. I also think in the long run Stowell may be the better player. But for now, I think Callahan will be there.
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Post by mintonetteman on Jun 14, 2022 9:57:31 GMT -5
beba, bbg95, hujak (the 3 BYU coaches) are you reading somewhere that someone said scheduling is easy? I didn't see anyone make a comment about whether or not scheduling is easy or hard. Maybe I missed something. Hard schedules for BYU is a must given their weak WCC schedule. Their weak pre-season schedule last season cost them big time in NCAA tourney seeding. BYU's RPI was not good enough for a top 12 seed. It is too bad because they had a team who could have competed for a final 4 berth and probably beaten Purdue if BYU had allowed themselves to play some top teams even if that met losing a few hard fought matches. They certainly appear to have learned their lesson and really upped the strength of schedule this year. Good for them. An E.Kentucky, Rice or UCF would jump at the chance to play BYU. Not that hard of a scheduling issue. Teams are rewarded for playing hard schedules and I was making the point that BYU could put another couple of tough teams into the schedule and been just fine. The thought that bbg95 had that BYU probably wouldn't want a tougher schedule is what has me laughing. You have got to be kidding? Playing hard teams is what makes you better and focuses your weaknesses for improvement. This current schedule is fine and much much better than last season, but it isn't elite. You want a challenging schedule, not necessarily a ridiculously tough one. Depends on the kind of team you are. 2022 BYU isn't 2019 Stanford. This isn't really a hard concept to grasp. As I've said many times, last year's schedule was disappointing. This one is quite good. Maybe not perfect but definitely good. You're also assuming that BYU didn't try to schedule tough teams last year. Given their recent scheduling history (look at their 2018 and 2019 schedules), this seems like a dumb assumption. My guess is that they did try, but for whatever reason, it just didn't work out for that particular season. Plus the COVID factor--at least what I heard--made it even more difficult. There were plenty of restrictions that made travel difficult in 2021. We seem to forgot the world we were in in 2021. |
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Post by marnvbc2 on Jun 15, 2022 12:14:53 GMT -5
This is not a hypothetical. I am just pointing out how "simple" it is to win the national championship every year. And, of course, this means getting the best libero and ds players every year, and teaching them (should probably just take marn and hour or two in the gym) to make perfect passes every time, and the setters to make perfect sets every time, and the hitters to never get blocked and always get a kill. In fact, if you did it right, we would just get an ace on every serve, and win every set 25-0. I sent an email to the full BYU staff, so I think all the problems are solved now. That is pretty funny. You don't think BYU knows they have a passing issue? But good for you letting them know! |
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