trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 3, 2021 13:19:59 GMT -5
These WKU/Rice and Marquette/Creighton matches are getting heated. Really fun stuff. I love conference tournament season.
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Post by redcard on Apr 3, 2021 14:06:19 GMT -5
These WKU/Rice and Marquette/Creighton matches are getting heated. Really fun stuff. I love conference tournament season. Rice and Marquette both lose. Do both get in?
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 3, 2021 14:08:28 GMT -5
These WKU/Rice and Marquette/Creighton matches are getting heated. Really fun stuff. I love conference tournament season. Rice and Marquette both lose. Do both get in? Right now - yes to Rice, no to Marquette. we'll see how the dust settles.
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Post by Resident Bitchy Canadian Fan on Apr 3, 2021 14:09:00 GMT -5
These WKU/Rice and Marquette/Creighton matches are getting heated. Really fun stuff. I love conference tournament season. Rice and Marquette both lose. Do both get in? I hope Rice gets in, the Texas win is too good to ignore. Marquette tho, I don’t really want them in the tourney
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 3, 2021 14:22:40 GMT -5
I wasn't advocating a strong quota - just using conference's recent past to baseline strength of schedule. Otherwise - what is the criteria for seeds and bids? How does one differentiate between Wisconsin and High Point this year? Is it the eye test - which would be a new metric (not a metric). Is it who they *think* is the better team - they have never really done this before. If a team was #32 in Pablo but #12 in RPI - RPI was going to win out. There isn't evidence that they even look at Pablo. Are they going to go by the National Polls - they never have done this in the past nor has it been a good or reliable metric. There is no objective way to have Wisconsin better than High Point based only on this year. As such - it seems logical that for this year - they will have use the past to determine the strength of each conference. And once you do that - It becomes much easier to have Missouri rated ahead of at least one of the 5 ACC teams. Looking at the at large/seeding possibilities/probabilities - it will be function of W/L Record and Conference affiliation. Kansas State (12-10) and Arizona (9-11) aren't good enough records to have their conference help them get in the tournament. What is done with Baylor will be very interesting - although there is very little difference between being #16 and #17 this year.I cannot imagine a 16-3 Washington will be any worse than a #4 seed (but then the difference between #4 and #5 is virtually meaningless this year). This year, there's actually a pretty big difference. #16 gets a bye, and #17 doesn't. Previously: #16 plays ~ Coppin State and #17 plays ~ Dayton in the 1st round. #16 gets home court. This year: #16 gets a buy and #17 plays ~ Coppin State in the 1st round. All on a neutral court. I think #17 is better off this year than previous years - and that doesn't take into account that #17 could end up facing #1 in the 2nd round with regionalization.
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Post by bbg95 on Apr 3, 2021 14:25:20 GMT -5
This year, there's actually a pretty big difference. #16 gets a bye, and #17 doesn't. Previously: #16 plays ~ Coppin State and #17 plays ~ Dayton in the 1st round. #16 gets home court. This year: #16 gets a buy and #17 plays ~ Coppin State in the 1st round. All on a neutral court. I think #17 is better off this year than previous years - and that doesn't take into account that #17 could end up facing #1 in the 2nd round with regionalization. So with the matchups, it might depend on the year. If I could be guaranteed two matches against easy opponents rather than one match against a tough opponent, I might take that. But I think in general, getting a bye is better than playing at home. You can't lose a match you don't play. Upsets of seeded teams in the first round are not particularly common in volleyball, but they do happen, and I expect more to occur if/when there is more parity.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 3, 2021 14:32:29 GMT -5
Previously: #16 plays ~ Coppin State and #17 plays ~ Dayton in the 1st round. #16 gets home court. This year: #16 gets a buy and #17 plays ~ Coppin State in the 1st round. All on a neutral court. I think #17 is better off this year than previous years - and that doesn't take into account that #17 could end up facing #1 in the 2nd round with regionalization. So with the matchups, it might depend on the year. But I think in general, getting a bye is better than playing at home. Agree that matchups matter. But this year #17 gets #48, which should be something like a >95% chance of winning. And then get #16 on neutral court. Normally - #17 is going to be around 65% chance of winning the 1st round while #16 will be in the 85-90% chance. I just see it likely to be much closer this year to the point of not being a big deal. But yes - that 5% chance of losing in the 1st round isn't 0%.
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Post by bbg95 on Apr 3, 2021 14:36:58 GMT -5
So with the matchups, it might depend on the year. But I think in general, getting a bye is better than playing at home. Agree that matchups matter. But this year #17 gets #48, which should be something like a >95% chance of winning. And then get #16 on neutral court. Normally - #17 is going to be around 65% chance of winning the 1st round while #16 will be in the 85-90% chance. I just see it likely to be much closer this year to the point of not being a big deal. But yes - that 5% chance of losing in the 1st round isn't 0%. You make some interesting points. I'm thinking of it more from the perspective of byes in general (for example, in the NFL, nearly 80 percent of teams that advanced to the Super Bowl since 1990 had a first-round bye. But for the specifics of this volleyball tournament, you may well be right.
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Post by ay2013 on Apr 3, 2021 14:39:29 GMT -5
And why do you argue that regionalization has hurt the Big 10? The B1G became a power BECAUSE of regionalization that for years limited the number of west coast teams who could go to the final four and guaranteed a team from the midwest would make it that far Really it’s that the traditional middle Big 10 teams (Purdue, Ohio State, Michigans) have an easier time inflating their RPI and when they do get awarded seeds and sub regionals, some unfairly like Purdue last year, they can draw from a lot of drive ins of lower conferences (regionalization) rather than having the better at large teams fly in. What would Purdue’s chances have been against Utah? WSU? UCLA? USC?
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Post by c4ndlelight on Apr 3, 2021 14:42:03 GMT -5
The B1G became a power BECAUSE of regionalization that for years limited the number of west coast teams who could go to the final four and guaranteed a team from the midwest would make it that far Really it’s that the traditional middle Big 10 teams (Purdue, Ohio State, Michigans) have an easier time inflating their RPI and when they do get awarded seeds and sub regionals, some unfairly like Purdue last year, they can draw from a lot of drive ins of lower conferences (regionalization) rather than having the better at large teams fly in. What would Purdue’s chances have been against Utah? WSU? UCLA? USC? Also the unseeded teams get softer subregionals regularly, driving into Louisville/UNI/Pitt/(Kentucky pre-Edmond types), while the PAC has to shed a team fighting through tougher Hawaii or BYU or San Diego types.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 3, 2021 14:42:39 GMT -5
Arizona took set 1, 25-21 over Washington State and leads 9-6 in set 2.
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Post by ay2013 on Apr 3, 2021 14:54:03 GMT -5
Really it’s that the traditional middle Big 10 teams (Purdue, Ohio State, Michigans) have an easier time inflating their RPI and when they do get awarded seeds and sub regionals, some unfairly like Purdue last year, they can draw from a lot of drive ins of lower conferences (regionalization) rather than having the better at large teams fly in. What would Purdue’s chances have been against Utah? WSU? UCLA? USC? Also the unseeded teams get softer subregionals regularly, driving into Louisville/UNI/Pitt/(Kentucky pre-Edmond types), while the PAC has to shed a team fighting through tougher Hawaii or BYU or San Diego types. Mmmhmmm. The Midwest is a cesspool of mediocrity that regionalization rewards.
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Post by Resident Bitchy Canadian Fan on Apr 3, 2021 15:13:50 GMT -5
If Temple beats UCF, does UCF have a decent chance at an at-large?
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Apr 3, 2021 15:18:10 GMT -5
If Temple beats UCF, does UCF have a decent chance at an at-large? They have *a* chance.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2021 15:29:14 GMT -5
If Temple beats UCF, does UCF have a decent chance at an at-large? They have *a* chance. You're thoughts on Marquette and UCF are making me feel 50/50 on San Diego.
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