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Post by basil on May 18, 2021 17:08:56 GMT -5
If they indeed have Lazović, Lozo, Bjelica, Djordjevic, and Gocanin (I don't recognize any of their middles but they won't be setting them at all with the lack of passing that will be present), then they COULD still win some matches. I guess we'll see who shows up after week 3 if they decide to sub anyone in? Serbia at the world cup had Busa, Bjelica, Milenkovic, Popovic (MB) etc. who will not be here.
They still lost to everyone other than the two african teams, the dutch, and the argentines.
It doesn't really look like Terzic (or Mazzanti) want to use this tournament for warmup at all, since only 6 players can be subbed in so I'm really doubtful we will see Boskovic/Rasic/Egonu/Sylla (on the Italian side)
yeah...the Dutch won't lose to them this time around (I hope). Maybe Thailand but I think their ball control will prevail. |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 17:10:28 GMT -5
They are going to absolutely plummet in the world rankings. This could make the World Championships pools VERY interesting. They are guaranteed a qualification since they are the defending champions but they aren't guaranteed a top seed. We could very well see USA be ranked #1 after this tournament going into the Olympics. Depends on how much Jenny is gonna experiment I guess.
looked at bit more at this assuming equal ranking of teams, the number of points put on the line of each match is at least 5 since the weighting factor of VNL is 40. If the result ends in 3-1 then 7.5, if the result ends in 3-0 then 10.
There are only 9 points separating China and USA. So the #1 and #2 ranks are pretty volatile and anything could pretty much happen, especially if the B team loses some matches to nominally "weaker" teams.
Brazil (#3) is a bit farther back with 54 points less than USA.
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 17:14:30 GMT -5
Serbia at the world cup had Busa, Bjelica, Milenkovic, Popovic (MB) etc. who will not be here.
They still lost to everyone other than the two african teams, the dutch, and the argentines.
It doesn't really look like Terzic (or Mazzanti) want to use this tournament for warmup at all, since only 6 players can be subbed in so I'm really doubtful we will see Boskovic/Rasic/Egonu/Sylla (on the Italian side)
yeah...the Dutch won't lose to them this time around (I hope). Maybe Thailand but I think their ball control will prevail. Thailand had to call their (retired? idk) veterans who had some online training before they left. I guess logically Serbia should be a bit better. |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 19:36:13 GMT -5
Final 4 predictions anyone?
I'm gonna go with the same 4 in 2018 and 2019 -- USA, China, Brazil, Turkey.
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Post by alohavball on May 18, 2021 20:23:18 GMT -5
Final 4 predictions anyone? I'm gonna go with the same 4 in 2018 and 2019 -- USA, China, Brazil, Turkey. It makes the most sense with three of those teams (USA, Brazil, and Turkey) sending their A team while China's main players are expected to join at the halfway point. |
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Post by basil on May 18, 2021 20:27:44 GMT -5
Final 4 predictions anyone? I'm gonna go with the same 4 in 2018 and 2019 -- USA, China, Brazil, Turkey. It makes the most sense with three of those teams (USA, Brazil, and Turkey) sending their A team while China's main players are expected to join at the halfway point. maybe Russia? If Kosheleva and Goncharova both play well and Parubets does well too? But I think it’ll most likely be the four from OP. |
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Post by n00b on May 18, 2021 20:49:09 GMT -5
Over/under how many wins Serbia will get (3)? I'm going with under They are going to absolutely plummet in the world rankings. This could make the World Championships pools VERY interesting. They are guaranteed a qualification since they are the defending champions but they aren't guaranteed a top seed. But they’ll play the Olympics and Euros with their A lineup, right? They’ll be fine. |
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Post by alohavball on May 18, 2021 21:20:25 GMT -5
It makes the most sense with three of those teams (USA, Brazil, and Turkey) sending their A team while China's main players are expected to join at the halfway point. maybe Russia? If Kosheleva and Goncharova both play well and Parubets does well too? But I think it’ll most likely be the four from OP. Parubets isn't on their roster. Russia doesn't want to rush her into playing just yet and risk agitating that knee. I see them rotating their players often and letting the new ones get most of the court time. |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2021 21:24:13 GMT -5
They are going to absolutely plummet in the world rankings. This could make the World Championships pools VERY interesting. They are guaranteed a qualification since they are the defending champions but they aren't guaranteed a top seed. But they’ll play the Olympics and Euros with their A lineup, right? They’ll be fine. This is true. The Olympics have the highest weight. The continental qualifiers I believe are weighted slightly lower than the VNL. |
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Post by n00b on May 18, 2021 21:31:47 GMT -5
But they’ll play the Olympics and Euros with their A lineup, right? They’ll be fine. This is true. The Olympics have the highest weight. The continental qualifiers I believe are weighted slightly lower than the VNL. Olympics - 50 VNL - 40 Continental Championship - 35 |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2021 21:52:53 GMT -5
This is true. The Olympics have the highest weight. The continental qualifiers I believe are weighted slightly lower than the VNL. Olympics - 50 VNL - 40 Continental Championship - 35 I do think that if Serbia loses 12-13 VNL matches, even if they run the board at the Olympics and the European Championships, they will barely improve upon their existing ranking. Then, if they sit out the 2022 VNL, they most certainly will be ranked somewhere between 8th - 12th. That would most likely knock them out of the top seeds for the WCH. I read that the women's tournament in 2022 will follow the same format as the men's was in 2018. Since there are two hosts, only the top 6 teams will be seeded. So Serbia needs to IMPROVE on their existing 6th place ranking in order to get a seed. If they tank another 8+ VNL matches in 2022, that will almost negate any progress made during the OG's and the Euros this year. I think it's a bad plan. Terzić, if he is the one making these decisions, needs to rethink things. Adopt a hybrid approach by mixing in vets in the later stages of the tournament like some other teams are doing that way the team doesn't continue to seesaw in the rankings. That's what I would do as coach. Now, if they don't retire any vets between this year and next year, then I could also argue that they would be fine no matter where they land during WCH pool play. I just don't think that the ends justify the means. Why make the journey to defending their gold in 2018 HARDER by tanking the VNL. I just think he is raging against the FIVB and is really making a poor choice. I get that its a delicate dance of player health and winning, but I think things could be managed better. |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 22:11:44 GMT -5
Olympics - 50 VNL - 40 Continental Championship - 35 I do think that if Serbia loses 12-13 VNL matches, even if they run the board at the Olympics and the European Championships, they will barely improve upon their existing ranking. Then, if they sit out the 2022 VNL, they most certainly will be ranked somewhere between 8th - 12th. That would most likely knock them out of the top seeds for the WCH. I read that the women's tournament in 2022 will follow the same format as the men's was in 2018. Since there are two hosts, only the top 6 teams will be seeded. So Serbia needs to IMPROVE on their existing 6th place ranking in order to get a seed. If they tank another 8+ VNL matches in 2022, that will almost negate any progress made during the OG's and the Euros this year. I think it's a bad plan. Terzić, if he is the one making these decisions, needs to rethink things. Adopt a hybrid approach by mixing in vets in the later stages of the tournament like some other teams are doing that way the team doesn't continue to seesaw in the rankings. That's what I would do as coach. Now, if they don't retire any vets between this year and next year, then I could also argue that they would be fine no matter where they land during WCH pool play. I just don't think that the ends justify the means. Why make the journey to defending their gold in 2018 HARDER by tanking the VNL. I just think he is raging against the FIVB and is really making a poor choice. I get that its a delicate dance of player health and winning, but I think things could be managed better. I don't really understand why not being a seeded team would be harmful though. |
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Post by n00b on May 18, 2021 22:24:32 GMT -5
Olympics - 50 VNL - 40 Continental Championship - 35 I do think that if Serbia loses 12-13 VNL matches, even if they run the board at the Olympics and the European Championships, they will barely improve upon their existing ranking. Then, if they sit out the 2022 VNL, they most certainly will be ranked somewhere between 8th - 12th. That would most likely knock them out of the top seeds for the WCH. I read that the women's tournament in 2022 will follow the same format as the men's was in 2018. Since there are two hosts, only the top 6 teams will be seeded. So Serbia needs to IMPROVE on their existing 6th place ranking in order to get a seed. If they tank another 8+ VNL matches in 2022, that will almost negate any progress made during the OG's and the Euros this year. I think it's a bad plan. Terzić, if he is the one making these decisions, needs to rethink things. Adopt a hybrid approach by mixing in vets in the later stages of the tournament like some other teams are doing that way the team doesn't continue to seesaw in the rankings. That's what I would do as coach. Now, if they don't retire any vets between this year and next year, then I could also argue that they would be fine no matter where they land during WCH pool play. I just don't think that the ends justify the means. Why make the journey to defending their gold in 2018 HARDER by tanking the VNL. I just think he is raging against the FIVB and is really making a poor choice. I get that its a delicate dance of player health and winning, but I think things could be managed better. Sure, but if that's the format, it's a 6-team opening pool and Serbia only has to finish Top 4. Then re-pool. Fortunately, volleyball allows for many more matches in a short period of time compared to a sport like soccer. The large pools lessen the importance of seeding. If they are one of the six best teams, I think it's likely they get into the Top 6 whether they are seeded 1st or 24th. Same thing for the Olympics really, seeding doesn't matter much. If you're good enough to medal, you'll advance from your pool regardless of your seed. By the way, I ran some numbers just for the fun of it. If they get swept in EVERY match of VNL, their rating would drop from 280 to 162ish. Putting them about #20 in the world. |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2021 22:34:34 GMT -5
Do ranking points "drop off"? (like in tennis)
like 2019 VNL points are replaced with 2021 VNL points?
or is it just 100% continuous?
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 22:35:07 GMT -5
Do ranking points "drop off"? (like in tennis) like 2019 VNL points are replaced with 2021 VNL points? or is it just 100% continuous? it's based off of ELO, so it's zero-sum and continuous. |
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