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Post by Reach on May 18, 2021 22:36:30 GMT -5
Do ranking points "drop off"? (like in tennis) like 2019 VNL points are replaced with 2021 VNL points? or is it just 100% continuous? Each event loses value each year until it drops off. Say the olympics is worth 100 points for winning gold this year, next year it’s worth 75 then 50 the following until dropping off. Pretty sure VNL, World Cup ans world champs is same thing, |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 22:36:55 GMT -5
I do think that if Serbia loses 12-13 VNL matches, even if they run the board at the Olympics and the European Championships, they will barely improve upon their existing ranking. Then, if they sit out the 2022 VNL, they most certainly will be ranked somewhere between 8th - 12th. That would most likely knock them out of the top seeds for the WCH. I read that the women's tournament in 2022 will follow the same format as the men's was in 2018. Since there are two hosts, only the top 6 teams will be seeded. So Serbia needs to IMPROVE on their existing 6th place ranking in order to get a seed. If they tank another 8+ VNL matches in 2022, that will almost negate any progress made during the OG's and the Euros this year. I think it's a bad plan. Terzić, if he is the one making these decisions, needs to rethink things. Adopt a hybrid approach by mixing in vets in the later stages of the tournament like some other teams are doing that way the team doesn't continue to seesaw in the rankings. That's what I would do as coach. Now, if they don't retire any vets between this year and next year, then I could also argue that they would be fine no matter where they land during WCH pool play. I just don't think that the ends justify the means. Why make the journey to defending their gold in 2018 HARDER by tanking the VNL. I just think he is raging against the FIVB and is really making a poor choice. I get that its a delicate dance of player health and winning, but I think things could be managed better. Sure, but if that's the format, it's a 6-team opening pool and Serbia only has to finish Top 4. Then re-pool. Fortunately, volleyball allows for many more matches in a short period of time compared to a sport like soccer. The large pools lessen the importance of seeding. If they are one of the six best teams, I think it's likely they get into the Top 6 whether they are seeded 1st or 24th. Same thing for the Olympics really, seeding doesn't matter much. If you're good enough to medal, you'll advance from your pool regardless of your seed. By the way, I ran some numbers just for the fun of it. If they get swept in EVERY match of VNL, their rating would drop from 280 to 162ish. Putting them about #20 in the world. Might drop even more than #20, since their 118 rating points will get redistributed to the other VNL teams which may overtake them. |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2021 22:37:03 GMT -5
Do ranking points "drop off"? (like in tennis) like 2019 VNL points are replaced with 2021 VNL points? or is it just 100% continuous? it's based off of ELO, so it's zero-sum and continuous. can you explain like im dumb. cause i am lol |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 22:38:17 GMT -5
Do ranking points "drop off"? (like in tennis) like 2019 VNL points are replaced with 2021 VNL points? or is it just 100% continuous? Each event loses value each year until it drops off. Say the olympics is worth 100 points for winning gold this year, next year it’s worth 75 then 50 the following until dropping off. Pretty sure VNL, World Cup ans world champs is same thing, I don't think it works this way. They changed it to an elo-like system, and you no longer get points for winning competitions directly, only matches. |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 22:42:38 GMT -5
it's based off of ELO, so it's zero-sum and continuous. can you explain like im dumb. cause i am lol zero sum means the total number of points among all teams doesn't change (in theory -- in practice fivb penalizes teams that are inactive with -50 pts per year) So if USA beats DR 3-0 on the 25th, the number of points USA wins is the same as the number of points DR loses.
continuous just means that the results are cumulative. Since USA is 382 now, say they win 3-0 and get 8 pts. Then they have 390 pts (so the recent win is factored in) and if they play another match then the calculations are based off of the 390 pts. If they play and beat DR again (I know international competitions don't work that way, but bear with me for the example) then they'd gain a bit less than 8 pts since the rating difference between USA and DR increases.
In general, winning against higher ranked teams gives you more points, and against lower ranked teams gives you less points (based on FIVB's statistical calculations). Losing against higher-ranked teams loses less points, and losing against lower ranked teams loses a LOT of points (this is why if Serbia lose to say Canada or Thailand they'd lose a LOT of points).
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Post by n00b on May 18, 2021 22:43:29 GMT -5
it's based off of ELO, so it's zero-sum and continuous. can you explain like im dumb. cause i am lol After each match, a team gains or loses points based on how they performed in relation to what they were expected to do. For example, in USA's opening match against DR: USA win 3-0: +5 USA win 3-1: +2 USA win 3-2: +0.1* USA lose 2-3: -12 USA lose 1-3: -15 USA lose 0-3: -18 * - the formula would've said USA loses points if the won 3-2. However, the rankings don't allow a team to lose points in a match they win. DR would lose/gain the inverse number of points. (If DR wins 3-0, they'd gain 18 points) |
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2021 22:45:08 GMT -5
well that's a lot more confusing than i thought initially. maybe i'll sit out of the rankings with kwt lol |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 22:46:09 GMT -5
watch fivb get confused and mess up their own ranking system after the vnl. haha.
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Post by n00b on May 18, 2021 22:46:16 GMT -5
Sure, but if that's the format, it's a 6-team opening pool and Serbia only has to finish Top 4. Then re-pool. Fortunately, volleyball allows for many more matches in a short period of time compared to a sport like soccer. The large pools lessen the importance of seeding. If they are one of the six best teams, I think it's likely they get into the Top 6 whether they are seeded 1st or 24th. Same thing for the Olympics really, seeding doesn't matter much. If you're good enough to medal, you'll advance from your pool regardless of your seed. By the way, I ran some numbers just for the fun of it. If they get swept in EVERY match of VNL, their rating would drop from 280 to 162ish. Putting them about #20 in the world. Might drop even more than #20, since their 118 rating points will get redistributed to the other VNL teams which may overtake them. Yep. #20 would be below all of the VNL teams (Plus PR, ARG, COL, CZE). That being said, Serbia losing 45 straight sets in this competition isn't going to happen. I don't care how bad of a roster they're sending. |
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Post by basil on May 18, 2021 22:47:03 GMT -5
Wait so...let's say the Olympics give you 1000 ranking points for gold, 500 for silver.
If this was tennis, since China won in 2016, they gained +1000. However, for 2020, they'd have to defend that 1000, so if they get silver they'd get +500 but -1000.
I understand point distribution for individual matches, but how does volleyball ranking deal with the big tournaments and defending points?
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Post by n00b on May 18, 2021 22:48:07 GMT -5
Wait so...let's say the Olympics give you 1000 ranking points for gold, 500 for silver. If this was tennis, since China won in 2016, they gained +1000. However, for 2020, they'd have to defend that 1000, so if they get silver they'd get +500 but -1000. How does volleyball ranking deal with the big tournaments? You get no points for tournament results. Just plusses and minuses for individual match results. |
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 22:48:30 GMT -5
Might drop even more than #20, since their 118 rating points will get redistributed to the other VNL teams which may overtake them. Yep. #20 would be below all of the VNL teams (Plus PR, ARG, COL, CZE). That being said, Serbia losing 45 straight sets in this competition isn't going to happen. I don't care how bad of a roster they're sending. Korea sent an awful roster to 2017 GCC and got blanked 0-15 against JPN, CHN, USA, RUS, and BRA. That's the only blank score I've seen.
But you're right, I doubt that Serbia would go 0-45. I don't even think they'll end up last.
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on May 18, 2021 22:50:03 GMT -5
Wait so...let's say the Olympics give you 1000 ranking points for gold, 500 for silver. If this was tennis, since China won in 2016, they gained +1000. However, for 2020, they'd have to defend that 1000, so if they get silver they'd get +500 but -1000. I understand point distribution for individual matches, but how does volleyball ranking deal with the big tournaments and defending points? This was the old system. The new one just takes individual matches into account.
More important events have more points on the line. The same loss at VNL would lose only 80% of the points you'd lose at the Olympics. (Since the weighting factors are 40 and 50)
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Post by basil on May 18, 2021 22:50:27 GMT -5
Wait so...let's say the Olympics give you 1000 ranking points for gold, 500 for silver. If this was tennis, since China won in 2016, they gained +1000. However, for 2020, they'd have to defend that 1000, so if they get silver they'd get +500 but -1000. How does volleyball ranking deal with the big tournaments? You get no points for tournament results. Just plusses and minuses for individual match results. Really?? That seems...unwise. But maybe I'm just used to tennis rankings oof. But also to be fair tennis doesn't put any weight into *who* you beat in individual matches when they dole out points for tournaments, it's just however much value the tournament is given. |
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Post by basil on May 18, 2021 22:51:28 GMT -5
Wait so...let's say the Olympics give you 1000 ranking points for gold, 500 for silver. If this was tennis, since China won in 2016, they gained +1000. However, for 2020, they'd have to defend that 1000, so if they get silver they'd get +500 but -1000. I understand point distribution for individual matches, but how does volleyball ranking deal with the big tournaments and defending points? This was the old system. The new one just takes individual matches into account.
More important events have more points on the line. The same loss at VNL would lose only 80% of the points you'd lose at the Olympics. (Since the weighting factors are 40 and 50)
Hmm. Ok, that makes sense. |
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