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Post by bigfan on Nov 14, 2021 17:32:04 GMT -5
Anyone want to take a shot at what the reseed will look like? CMS is from way out west and will get the #8 seed. |
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 14, 2021 17:51:51 GMT -5
Anyone want to take a shot at what the reseed will look like? My data sheets are only through Nov 7 matches (no NCCA tournament). But based on their results versus top 100 opponents to that point. It should be: Eau-Claire, Trinity(TX), Calvin, CMS, Juniata, Berry, Tufts, MIT As I understand it, The NCAA refreshes their criteria data, and then just makes it up(based on the 2019 seeds they came up with) so there is no telling. |
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Post by jcvball22 on Nov 14, 2021 18:06:30 GMT -5
Anyone want to take a shot at what the reseed will look like? My data sheets are only through Nov 7 matches (no NCCA tournament). But based on their results versus top 100 opponents to that point. It should be: Eau-Claire, Trinity(TX), Calvin, CMS, Juniata, Berry, Tufts, MIT As understand it, The NCAA refreshes their criteria data, and then just makes it up(based on the 2019 seeds they came up with) so there is no telling. Will they announce this tomorrow? And since Calvin is still in the field, I assume it will be Thursday-Friday-Saturday for the final matches? |
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 14, 2021 18:39:04 GMT -5
My data sheets are only through Nov 7 matches (no NCCA tournament). But based on their results versus top 100 opponents to that point. It should be: Eau-Claire, Trinity(TX), Calvin, CMS, Juniata, Berry, Tufts, MIT As understand it, The NCAA refreshes their criteria data, and then just makes it up(based on the 2019 seeds they came up with) so there is no telling. Will they announce this tomorrow? And since Calvin is still in the field, I assume it will be Thursday-Friday-Saturday for the final matches? I think so. They have given up on Fri-Sun and just always do Thu-Sat now to avoid the issue. |
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Post by coachk2 on Nov 14, 2021 19:31:27 GMT -5
Will they announce this tomorrow? And since Calvin is still in the field, I assume it will be Thursday-Friday-Saturday for the final matches? I think so. They have given up on Fri-Sun and just always do Thu-Sat now to avoid the issue. It was scheduled for Thursday Nov 18 through Saturday Nov 20 before the season started. 😃 |
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Post by noreaster on Nov 14, 2021 19:49:31 GMT -5
This one may not be so random. Calvin beat CMS, who along with Tufts both beat Trinity, who beat MIT.
I'm not getting into all of the common opponents but just on head to heads...
Calvin
CMS
Tufts
Trinity
MIT
I'd probably put Juniata #1, UW Eau Claire maybe after CMS, Berry after Trinity, and despite the head to heads, Tuft's winning % is much lower so I think they go 8th.
So final prediction
Juniata
Calvin
CMS
Eau Claire
Trinity
Berry
MIT
Tufts
The missing head to head result of course is MIT and Tufts, who are basically in the same city but didn't play because that was one of the matches that was canceled when Tufts took a weekend off to mourn the passing of a softball player.
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Post by d3follower on Nov 15, 2021 1:48:20 GMT -5
The initial version of the 2021 Nationals Guide has been posted if there's any interest in such things. |
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Post by tmb on Nov 15, 2021 2:38:00 GMT -5
Elite 8 posted with seeds
1 Juniata v 8 MIT 1:30pm
4 Wis-Eau Clare v 5 Tufts 4pm
2 CMS v 7 Berry 6:30pm
3 Trinity v 6 Calvin 9pm
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 15, 2021 6:11:59 GMT -5
Why can't some simple common sense be used to do the elite 8 seeding? To compare these teams in terms of win% and SOS at this point is a joke. They are all great teams, a quick look at each teams schedule and results gets you to a decent seed that is way better than this mistake.
Let's start by dividing them in half. That takes all of 2 seconds. you have Eau Claire, Calvin, CMS, Trinity(TX). And you have Berry, Juniata, MIT, Tufts. Having at least done this it would hard to be too wrong.
First, Tufts is #7 and MIT is #8. Does anybody really disagree with that? Yes, Tufts has wins over Trinity and knocked off JHU. But their overall season long body of work is clearly not at the level of the other schools. Maybe you might put them at #6 and Berry at #7 but that is it.
To me, the bigger mistake is Juniata at #1. They played a solid, but low key schedule, likely not wanting to get too far from home in this strange season, that is fine. But the price is you do not get seeded higher than the schools(Eau Claire, Trinity(TX), Calvin) who were successful against tougher schedules.
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Post by noreaster on Nov 15, 2021 7:32:18 GMT -5
Juniata being number 1 shouldn't be a surprise. They have the highest winning % (.966), winning % vs ranked (.952), and IDK what the recalculated SOS is but Juniata had the highest SOS at .649 in the last published data.
Juniata's only loss was Johns Hopkins on opening weekend so you can say that Tufts has a win over that common opponent, but Juniata has now beat Wesleyan twice, who beat Tufts twice.
I'm surprised Tufts is 5th - I don't get that. And I thought Calvin would get more credit for beating CMS but I can see how they put them 6th.
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Post by coahc21 on Nov 15, 2021 12:06:58 GMT -5
Interesting note... all 8 of the remaining schools are in the top 10 in RPI...the other 2 in the top 10 are Hope and Hopkins
Shows how accurate the RPI was this year, at least at the top
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Post by bigfan on Nov 15, 2021 12:16:20 GMT -5
2 CMS v 7 Berry 6:30pm
Tough draw for CMS, Berry is on a real roll
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Post by coahc21 on Nov 15, 2021 12:19:32 GMT -5
2 CMS v 7 Berry 6:30pm Tough draw for CMS, Berry is on a real roll I don't know if there is a "good" draw in the bunch this year...sometimes a cinderella squeaks through, but not sure that's the case this year...Tufts is the closest thing bc they took down the giant, but not sure I would want to play them over Berry... |
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Post by bigfan on Nov 15, 2021 12:25:18 GMT -5
2 CMS v 7 Berry 6:30pm Tough draw for CMS, Berry is on a real roll I don't know if there is a "good" draw in the bunch this year...sometimes a cinderella squeaks through, but not sure that's the case this year...Tufts is the closest thing bc they took down the giant, but not sure I would want to play them over Berry... I love CMS and SCIAC but a #2 seed is too high. |
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Post by coahc21 on Nov 15, 2021 13:16:46 GMT -5
Why can't some simple common sense be used to do the elite 8 seeding? To compare these teams in terms of win% and SOS at this point is a joke. They are all great teams, a quick look at each teams schedule and results gets you to a decent seed that is way better than this mistake. Let's start by dividing them in half. That takes all of 2 seconds. you have Eau Claire, Calvin, CMS, Trinity(TX). And you have Berry, Juniata, MIT, Tufts. Having at least done this it would hard to be too wrong. First, Tufts is #7 and MIT is #8. Does anybody really disagree with that? Yes, Tufts has wins over Trinity and knocked off JHU. But their overall season long body of work is clearly not at the level of the other schools. Maybe you might put them at #6 and Berry at #7 but that is it. To me, the bigger mistake is Juniata at #1. They played a solid, but low key schedule, likely not wanting to get too far from home in this strange season, that is fine. But the price is you do not get seeded higher than the schools(Eau Claire, Trinity(TX), Calvin) who were successful against tougher schedules. Juniata's SOS is 6th in the country, which is higher than any of the final 8....this is the criteria that the committee is going off...not other ranking sites...No brainer that Juniata is 1 seed...have to look at the approved metrics, not the "eye" test or which schedule looks tougher because it has traditional big names on it...you can certainly curse the system....don't hate the player, hate the game |
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