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Post by TuesdayGone on Sept 13, 2021 21:13:20 GMT -5
Looking at Texas remaining schedule
If Texas loses 4 matches Jerritt needs to retire.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 13, 2021 21:23:16 GMT -5
Wow. Notre Dame at #50 with an 11-17 record? That’s a heck of a job scheduling. Now if they could only play volleyball at a similar level… And just 3 more spots down, the *10th* team from the ACC, Wake Forest, is in striking distance of a Top 50 spot. Incredible. Imagine if they won that 5-setter against Kansas . . .
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 14, 2021 7:34:56 GMT -5
bluepenquin what does this RPI futures factor in? Does it always include the T75 bonus for nonconference? Does it include the bonus points for T25/T50 wins, or does that happen in a later week? It does include those things - but not in terms of probabilities. It assumes the current RPI Futures will be the final RPI ranks and then assigns the bonus points. Unlike the records, which are probabilities based. This is a bit unfortunate, but I don't know any other way around it. I will use Kansas as an example since I am most familiar with them - and how RPI Futures is currently overstating their rank probability. They were teetering between getting full credit for the scheduling bonus (50% of OOC opponents in the unadjusted T75) and getting no credit - it is an either or for RPI Futures. Right now - there odds of getting the full credit may be around 75% (not 100%) - but because they have more than 50%, they are getting the full bonus (There strength of schedule made a wild improvement this last week with key gains by LMU, Wake Forest, Wichita State, Missouri State, and Kansas City). The only way to get around this is when I do my 1,000 simulations towards the end of the season. T25/T50 is also based on where they are right now in the unadjusted RPI, not the probability they will end up there. Kansas is getting 75% of a T50 bonus points for a future match against Missouri State. Missouri State is #46 in the unadjusted RPI Futures. Their odds of finishing the year in the T50 is less than 100% - so I have overstated Kansas Probability of getting that bonus. If Missouri State's chances of finishing the year inside the T50 is really only 50% - then I have doubled the bonus points for Kansas in terms of real probabilities for that single match (a fairly small number). Kansas City is #50 - and Kansas is getting 77% of those bonus points. Kansas State at #48 - getting 45% for those 2 matches. Again, Kansas bonus probabilities are actually less than what RPI Futures is calculating. There are matches on the other side that are being undercounted based on the probabilities. Iowa State and Wake Forest could possibly get inside the T50 - although Kansas is an underdog in their two matches with ISU.
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Post by BuckysHeat on Sept 14, 2021 8:42:07 GMT -5
Average futures rank by conference (top 10): Big 12 49 Atlantic Coast 52 Big Ten 61 Southeastern 63 Pac 12 72 American Athletic 121 Big East 123 Missouri Valley 135 West Coast 142 Conference USA 144
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Post by BuckysHeat on Sept 14, 2021 8:51:11 GMT -5
The SWAC with 10 of the lowest 19 teams, average F-RPI of 318, Florida A&M highest at 196 but SOS is ranked 336th out of 340
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 14, 2021 10:23:14 GMT -5
Average futures rank by conference (top 10): Big 12 49 Atlantic Coast 52 Big Ten 61 Southeastern 63 Pac 12 72 American Athletic 121 Big East 123 Missouri Valley 135 West Coast 142 Conference USA 144 Interesting that the Big 12 is so high. I also noticed that all four of the new Big 12 teams have respectable RPI futures ranks: 14. BYU 39. UCF 44. Houston 66. Cincinnati The average of the four incoming members is 40.75. The existing conference teams all have respectable ranks with the exception of Oklahoma: 5. Texas 6. Baylor 30. Kansas 33. West Virginia 38. Texas Tech 46. Kansas State 57. Iowa State 58. TCU 169. Oklahoma The average of those nine is 49.11. The average of the departing members is 87. The average of the new conference would be 39.18. Edit: Also, yikes on the WCC's average. It seems like moving to the Big 12 will beneficial to BYU (and also the AAC schools) from an RPI standpoint.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 14, 2021 19:29:43 GMT -5
lol at Stanford with 13 losses.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 14, 2021 19:31:58 GMT -5
Also, yikes on the WCC's average. The WCC always looks worse in terms of RPI than they actually are. It's unfortunate. The top teams usually still end up OK though.
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Post by slxpress on Sept 14, 2021 22:08:25 GMT -5
lol at Stanford with 13 losses. Remember it's not actually a prediction. It's a probability exercise. As Stanford goes through the season, the more they win, the more that probability of 13 total losses decreases. It's intended as a tool to show where teams stand in probabilistic RPI at the end of the year, as opposed to where they stand at this exact moment, which is wildly inaccurate as a measure. If viewed through the right lens it's very interesting. If viewed through the wrong lens is very mockable. But that's more a matter of viewing it wrong than a problem with the exercise itself.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Sept 15, 2021 2:54:18 GMT -5
Wow. Notre Dame at #50 with an 11-17 record? That’s a heck of a job scheduling. Now if they could only play volleyball at a similar level… And just 3 more spots down, the *10th* team from the ACC, Wake Forest, is in striking distance of a Top 50 spot. Incredible. Imagine if they won that 5-setter against Kansas . . . ACC is doing well with some big wins at the top, but their 18-game conference schedule gives them an advantage too. They're giving each other fewer losses (helping everyone's SOS) and have extra match days for OOC plays. Boston College is playing 14 OOC matches, probably going to go 11-3 without beating anyone with a pulse, and that means they can do fairly poorly over an 18-game conference schedule and still not be an SOS drag on RPI. On average ACC teams are (1) playing more OOC matches - (The Big Ten and PAC, as a broad trend, are moving away from playing 3/4 matches in 2 days each weekend and they have 2 extra competition days to play with; (2) have the geographic scheduling advantage for easier wins in the East/Northeast, and (3) are in an up year with some big OOC wins. The first two are really boosting the advantage from (3)
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 15, 2021 7:53:02 GMT -5
Average futures rank by conference (top 10): Big 12 49 Atlantic Coast 52 Big Ten 61 Southeastern 63 Pac 12 72 American Athletic 121 Big East 123 Missouri Valley 135 West Coast 142 Conference USA 144 Interesting that the Big 12 is so high. I also noticed that all four of the new Big 12 teams have respectable RPI futures ranks: 14. BYU 39. UCF 44. Houston 66. Cincinnati The average of the four incoming members is 40.75. The existing conference teams all have respectable ranks with the exception of Oklahoma: 5. Texas 6. Baylor 30. Kansas 33. West Virginia 38. Texas Tech 46. Kansas State 57. Iowa State 58. TCU 169. Oklahoma The average of those nine is 49.11. The average of the departing members is 87. The average of the new conference would be 39.18. Edit: Also, yikes on the WCC's average. It seems like moving to the Big 12 will beneficial to BYU (and also the AAC schools) from an RPI standpoint. This type of analysis doesn't necessarily provide the results you may be expecting for the new B12. When I get time - I will be doing a deeper dive to see what the impact will be in terms of RPI (and it will vary by year). Too much parity can be the death in RPI (look at current PAC). My sense. BYU will be greatly aided. There is no doubt that if we were to just replace Texas with BYU - BYU would have been a perennial top 10 RPI every year. The B12 has been very good for RPI and WCC has been awful. But now, they will be moving into an 11 team conference instead of the current 9 teams in the B12 - this will have an impact on the B12 RPI depending on the # of conference matches they end up playing (18 would make the most sense, especially since there is an odd # of teams in the conference). No matter - hard to see a scenario where BYU is worse off - and they are likely to be significantly better off. The three AAC teams. If we were to replace one of those teams with a team in the B12 (either Texas or Oklahoma) - I believe each team would be no different or worse off in the B12. The AAC offers a lot of RPI advantages. Where they can get hurt is the more limited T25 win opportunities - which they would gain with the B12. The depth of this new conference should be very fun to watch - but it could also end up creating some RPI problems for those in the middle of the conference.
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Post by n00b on Sept 15, 2021 8:34:11 GMT -5
Interesting that the Big 12 is so high. I also noticed that all four of the new Big 12 teams have respectable RPI futures ranks: 14. BYU 39. UCF 44. Houston 66. Cincinnati The average of the four incoming members is 40.75. The existing conference teams all have respectable ranks with the exception of Oklahoma: 5. Texas 6. Baylor 30. Kansas 33. West Virginia 38. Texas Tech 46. Kansas State 57. Iowa State 58. TCU 169. Oklahoma The average of those nine is 49.11. The average of the departing members is 87. The average of the new conference would be 39.18. Edit: Also, yikes on the WCC's average. It seems like moving to the Big 12 will beneficial to BYU (and also the AAC schools) from an RPI standpoint. This type of analysis doesn't necessarily provide the results you may be expecting for the new B12. When I get time - I will be doing a deeper dive to see what the impact will be in terms of RPI (and it will vary by year). Too much parity can be the death in RPI (look at current PAC). My sense. BYU will be greatly aided. There is no doubt that if we were to just replace Texas with BYU - BYU would have been a perennial top 10 RPI every year. The B12 has been very good for RPI and WCC has been awful. But now, they will be moving into an 11 team conference instead of the current 9 teams in the B12 - this will have an impact on the B12 RPI depending on the # of conference matches they end up playing (18 would make the most sense, especially since there is an odd # of teams in the conference). No matter - hard to see a scenario where BYU is worse off - and they are likely to be significantly better off. The three AAC teams. If we were to replace one of those teams with a team in the B12 (either Texas or Oklahoma) - I believe each team would be no different or worse off in the B12. The AAC offers a lot of RPI advantages. Where they can get hurt is the more limited T25 win opportunities - which they would gain with the B12. The depth of this new conference should be very fun to watch - but it could also end up creating some RPI problems for those in the middle of the conference. Well softball uses RPI and the SEC gets all 13 teams in. But yeah, parity isn’t great if you only have the 4th best overall non-conference winning percentage (like the Pac-12 has now).
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Post by c4ndlelight on Sept 15, 2021 9:17:15 GMT -5
This type of analysis doesn't necessarily provide the results you may be expecting for the new B12. When I get time - I will be doing a deeper dive to see what the impact will be in terms of RPI (and it will vary by year). Too much parity can be the death in RPI (look at current PAC). My sense. BYU will be greatly aided. There is no doubt that if we were to just replace Texas with BYU - BYU would have been a perennial top 10 RPI every year. The B12 has been very good for RPI and WCC has been awful. But now, they will be moving into an 11 team conference instead of the current 9 teams in the B12 - this will have an impact on the B12 RPI depending on the # of conference matches they end up playing (18 would make the most sense, especially since there is an odd # of teams in the conference). No matter - hard to see a scenario where BYU is worse off - and they are likely to be significantly better off. The three AAC teams. If we were to replace one of those teams with a team in the B12 (either Texas or Oklahoma) - I believe each team would be no different or worse off in the B12. The AAC offers a lot of RPI advantages. Where they can get hurt is the more limited T25 win opportunities - which they would gain with the B12. The depth of this new conference should be very fun to watch - but it could also end up creating some RPI problems for those in the middle of the conference. Well softball uses RPI and the SEC gets all 13 teams in. But yeah, parity isn’t great if you only have the 4th best overall non-conference winning percentage (like the Pac-12 has now). The RPI math is a lot different in sports when less than half your schedule is from conference matches.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 15, 2021 9:19:50 GMT -5
Well softball uses RPI and the SEC gets all 13 teams in. But yeah, parity isn’t great if you only have the 4th best overall non-conference winning percentage (like the Pac-12 has now). But softball has a unique advantage. More non conference games. Many of their schools will have over 50% non conference matches. While schools like Stanford and Minnesota will have 28% non conference matches.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Sept 15, 2021 9:21:09 GMT -5
Well softball uses RPI and the SEC gets all 13 teams in. But yeah, parity isn’t great if you only have the 4th best overall non-conference winning percentage (like the Pac-12 has now). The RPI math is a lot different in sports when less than half your schedule is from conference matches. You beat me to it, and you/blue also brought up how teams are trending towards even less non conference matches, and many of those are not doing it against weaker competition.
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