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Post by gibbyb1 on Sept 15, 2021 9:32:46 GMT -5
I’ll take a parlay of Texas, Stanford and Nebraska’s losses being well under
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 15, 2021 9:58:24 GMT -5
Interesting that the Big 12 is so high. I also noticed that all four of the new Big 12 teams have respectable RPI futures ranks: 14. BYU 39. UCF 44. Houston 66. Cincinnati The average of the four incoming members is 40.75. The existing conference teams all have respectable ranks with the exception of Oklahoma: 5. Texas 6. Baylor 30. Kansas 33. West Virginia 38. Texas Tech 46. Kansas State 57. Iowa State 58. TCU 169. Oklahoma The average of those nine is 49.11. The average of the departing members is 87. The average of the new conference would be 39.18. Edit: Also, yikes on the WCC's average. It seems like moving to the Big 12 will beneficial to BYU (and also the AAC schools) from an RPI standpoint. This type of analysis doesn't necessarily provide the results you may be expecting for the new B12. When I get time - I will be doing a deeper dive to see what the impact will be in terms of RPI (and it will vary by year). Too much parity can be the death in RPI (look at current PAC). My sense. BYU will be greatly aided. There is no doubt that if we were to just replace Texas with BYU - BYU would have been a perennial top 10 RPI every year. The B12 has been very good for RPI and WCC has been awful. But now, they will be moving into an 11 team conference instead of the current 9 teams in the B12 - this will have an impact on the B12 RPI depending on the # of conference matches they end up playing (18 would make the most sense, especially since there is an odd # of teams in the conference). No matter - hard to see a scenario where BYU is worse off - and they are likely to be significantly better off. The three AAC teams. If we were to replace one of those teams with a team in the B12 (either Texas or Oklahoma) - I believe each team would be no different or worse off in the B12. The AAC offers a lot of RPI advantages. Where they can get hurt is the more limited T25 win opportunities - which they would gain with the B12. The depth of this new conference should be very fun to watch - but it could also end up creating some RPI problems for those in the middle of the conference. Fair enough. I majored in communications, not math, so I'll take your word for it. I look forward to reading your analysis when you get around to it.
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Post by n00b on Sept 15, 2021 10:00:04 GMT -5
The RPI math is a lot different in sports when less than half your schedule is from conference matches. You beat me to it, and you/blue also brought up how teams are trending towards even less non conference matches, and many of those are not doing it against weaker competition. That's a choice they make. It might not even be a wrong choice. But they choose to play 20 conference matches at the expense of worsening the overall conference RPI. And the norms are obviously different for softball. Does SEC softball play the most conference games of any conference in the country? Because that's what Pac-12 volleyball does (along with the Big 10).
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Post by trojansc on Sept 15, 2021 10:10:43 GMT -5
You beat me to it, and you/blue also brought up how teams are trending towards even less non conference matches, and many of those are not doing it against weaker competition. That's a choice they make. It might not even be a wrong choice. But they choose to play 20 conference matches at the expense of worsening the overall conference RPI. And the norms are obviously different for softball. Does SEC softball play the most conference games of any conference in the country? Because that's what Pac-12 volleyball does (along with the Big 10). The SEC plays a mostly standard 24 conference match schedule. The other 3 P5 play the same usually while the Big 12 plays less (expectedly, less teams). The PAC-12 and Big 10 (volleyball) are not alone this year. The AAC and Big West also play 20 conference matches as the Big West grew and the AAC returned to their norm after ditching the conference tournament.
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Post by trojansc on Sept 15, 2021 10:14:09 GMT -5
It also makes the unfortunate reality of our system apparent. Playing tougher matches is a bad thing (more conference matches). Oregon State and Iowa will hurt their conferences for scheduling tougher, but at least Maryland and Rutgers can make up for that damage in the B1G.
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Post by n00b on Sept 15, 2021 10:16:29 GMT -5
That's a choice they make. It might not even be a wrong choice. But they choose to play 20 conference matches at the expense of worsening the overall conference RPI. And the norms are obviously different for softball. Does SEC softball play the most conference games of any conference in the country? Because that's what Pac-12 volleyball does (along with the Big 10). The SEC plays a mostly standard 24 conference match schedule. The other 3 P5 play the same usually while the Big 12 plays less (expectedly, less teams). The PAC-12 and Big 10 (volleyball) are not alone this year. The AAC and Big West also play 20 conference matches as the Big West grew and the AAC returned to their norm after ditching the conference tournament. A 16-match Pac-12 schedule plus a conference tournament would be incredible. Just sayin...
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Post by trojansc on Sept 15, 2021 10:26:17 GMT -5
The SEC plays a mostly standard 24 conference match schedule. The other 3 P5 play the same usually while the Big 12 plays less (expectedly, less teams). The PAC-12 and Big 10 (volleyball) are not alone this year. The AAC and Big West also play 20 conference matches as the Big West grew and the AAC returned to their norm after ditching the conference tournament. A 16-match Pac-12 schedule plus a conference tournament would be incredible. Just sayin... Would it have made the difference in Cal not making the tournament or Utah not getting seeded in 2019? It would be interesting to look at it, but even then, it's not entirely measurable without knowing specific schedules. Hopefully we don't have another situation this year where only splitting with the #42 RPI team and having 0 T50 non-conference wins is not only good enough for an *at-large bid* but viewed as better than beating 2T25 teams, 4T50 teams, and 1 win from each of those groupings being non-conference.
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Post by Reach on Sept 15, 2021 10:33:03 GMT -5
Stanfords RPI is juicy and silly.
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Post by n00b on Sept 15, 2021 10:34:45 GMT -5
A 16-match Pac-12 schedule plus a conference tournament would be incredible. Just sayin... Would it have made the difference in Cal not making the tournament or Utah not getting seeded in 2019? It would be interesting to look at it, but even then, it's not entirely measurable without knowing specific schedules. Hopefully we don't have another situation this year where only splitting with the #42 RPI team and having 0 T50 non-conference wins is not only good enough for an *at-large bid* but viewed as better than beating 2T25 teams, 4T50 teams, and 1 win from each of those groupings being non-conference. Cal and Utah would've certainly had the chance to earn it on the court. #7 Cal would've had a round 2 matchup against #2 Washington that would've been nothing but upside (assuming they beat Arizona in the opening round). And if Utah picked up a quality win on the way to the finals (even if they lost to Stanford), they're improving their resume. I really don't know if it would be a net positive or not. I just think conference tournaments are a lot of fun for both athletes and fans. And I'm not convinced that they are a net negative in the way that the Power 5 coaches seem to.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 15, 2021 10:46:42 GMT -5
Would it have made the difference in Cal not making the tournament or Utah not getting seeded in 2019? It would be interesting to look at it, but even then, it's not entirely measurable without knowing specific schedules. Hopefully we don't have another situation this year where only splitting with the #42 RPI team and having 0 T50 non-conference wins is not only good enough for an *at-large bid* but viewed as better than beating 2T25 teams, 4T50 teams, and 1 win from each of those groupings being non-conference. Cal and Utah would've certainly had the chance to earn it on the court. #7 Cal would've had a round 2 matchup against #2 Washington that would've been nothing but upside (assuming they beat Arizona in the opening round). And if Utah picked up a quality win on the way to the finals (even if they lost to Stanford), they're improving their resume. I really don't know if it would be a net positive or not. I just think conference tournaments are a lot of fun for both athletes and fans. And I'm not convinced that they are a net negative in the way that the Power 5 coaches seem to. I guess I hadn't really thought about why the power conferences don't have tournaments in women's volleyball but they do in basketball. But after thinking about it for a couple seconds, I realized that of course the reason why they do it in men's basketball is because those tournaments make money. In men's volleyball, they have conference tournaments, but the NCAA field is very small (just seven teams), so it makes more sense for that reason too.
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 15, 2021 11:30:38 GMT -5
Well softball uses RPI and the SEC gets all 13 teams in. But yeah, parity isn’t great if you only have the 4th best overall non-conference winning percentage (like the Pac-12 has now). The RPI math is a lot different in sports when less than half your schedule is from conference matches. I was going to ask what % of the games are conference in softball? VB is 70% - which makes it very tough.
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 15, 2021 11:35:03 GMT -5
A 16-match Pac-12 schedule plus a conference tournament would be incredible. Just sayin... Would it have made the difference in Cal not making the tournament or Utah not getting seeded in 2019? It would be interesting to look at it, but even then, it's not entirely measurable without knowing specific schedules. My guess - yes, it would have put Cal in the tournament. It wouldn't have hurt Utah's chances - but RPI usually isn't as important for seeding compared to bid.
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Post by bluepenquin on Sept 15, 2021 11:41:16 GMT -5
16 conference matches and a conference tournament would be a good thing for the PAC and B1G in terms of RPI. Going to an 18 game conference season would also be a net gain for those conferences.
With 28 play dates - and just about every top team avoiding more than one match a day - no conference should have a 20 match season (IMO). I don't like the 4 weeks of non conference and 10 weeks of conference model currently in volleyball. I think the sport would be better if Stanford and Nebraska play each other in late October instead of the middle of September.
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Post by ay2013 on Sept 15, 2021 11:54:06 GMT -5
lol at Stanford with 13 losses. Remember it's not actually a prediction. It's a probability exercise. As Stanford goes through the season, the more they win, the more that probability of 13 total losses decreases. It's intended as a tool to show where teams stand in probabilistic RPI at the end of the year, as opposed to where they stand at this exact moment, which is wildly inaccurate as a measure. If viewed through the right lens it's very interesting. If viewed through the wrong lens is very mockable. But that's more a matter of viewing it wrong than a problem with the exercise itself. I’m aware of how these futures are generated, thanks.
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Post by bbg95 on Sept 15, 2021 11:54:42 GMT -5
16 conference matches and a conference tournament would be a good thing for the PAC and B1G in terms of RPI. Going to an 18 game conference season would also be a net gain for those conferences. With 28 play dates - and just about every top team avoiding more than one match a day - no conference should have a 20 match season (IMO). I don't like the 4 weeks of non conference and 10 weeks of conference model currently in volleyball. I think the sport would be better if Stanford and Nebraska play each other in late October instead of the middle of September. I also don't think it helps that many in the volleyball community continue to call non-conference play the "preseason."
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