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Post by chibadgerfan on Jul 27, 2023 11:20:53 GMT -5
I am pretty sure that the B12 and Oregon have been at least talking for months. The B12 would be absolutely crazy not to want Oregon (IMO) - and I do think there is a scenario where Oregon joins the B12. Oregon is probably looking at this in terms of their football program and the expanded college playoffs after this year. An 8 or 9 team PAC conference would actually be good for Oregon football - but if the PAC looks to implode and there is nothing from the B1G - the B12 may end up being their best option. I don't know about Washington - I believe they would have more resistance to joining the B12 and I don't know that they have even been talking to the B12. That said - I think the B12 would have interest and likely that Washington wouldn't have interest. Stanford/Cal - I wouldn't say 'no' interest, but I don't see any likely real interest in either of these schools - not to mention those schools will never have interest in the B12. Oregon State/Washington State - no chance. I don't get the B12 interest in Colorado by itself. This puts the conference with an odd # of teams - why would the B12 do this (potentially stop here for even one season)? This isn't like adding Penn State - or adding Notre Dame - where having an odd number of teams is worth it. Colorado doesn't do this for the B12? I think the Big 12 adds at least one more school. If no one else in the Pac-12 (e.g. Arizona) jumps, then UConn is a fallback option. I've heard that despite not being in a current P5, ESPN and Fox would agree to give UConn (five men's basketball titles in the last 25 years) a full share if it comes to that. Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal go to the Big Ten. Utah goes to the Big 12. State governments (like California did in the case of UCLA) will get involved and force Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State to go in package deals to the same conference as their “sister” school. |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 27, 2023 11:23:09 GMT -5
I think the Big 12 adds at least one more school. If no one else in the Pac-12 (e.g. Arizona) jumps, then UConn is a fallback option. I've heard that despite not being in a current P5, ESPN and Fox would agree to give UConn (five men's basketball titles in the last 25 years) a full share if it comes to that. Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal go to the Big Ten. Utah goes to the Big 12. State governments (like California did in the case of UCLA) will get involved and force Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State to go in package deals to the same conference as their “sister” school. The California regents already let UCLA go without Cal, though they're forcing UCLA to pay some kind of alimony payment. |
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Post by n00b on Jul 27, 2023 11:44:41 GMT -5
State governments (like California did in the case of UCLA) will get involved and force Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State to go in package deals to the same conference as their “sister” school. Maybe. If they want both schools to end up in the Mountain West (or a Pac-12 that is full of current Mountain West schools) and lose out on tens of millions of dollars in revenue. The Big 12 wants Washington and Oregon. But they don't want them badly enough to add Oregon State and Washington State. |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Jul 27, 2023 11:48:29 GMT -5
That would be another deja vu. Utah not necessarily being a conference's first or second choice, but benefitting from other schools taking a pass and the Big 12 conference wanting an even number of members.  And at the time, the Pac-12 actually needed to add someone else when they struck out on all their top choices except Colorado. They needed a 12th member so that they could play a conference championship game. But those rules have since been changed, so I don't think the Big 12 actually needs to add anyone else. I do think they'll get at least one more school, though, whether it's a Pac-12 school like Arizona or UConn as a fallback. Assuming they add just one more - what is the order you think is most likely to happen (not what the B12 would necessarily want). I am thinking Arizona and UConn are probably 50-50 in terms of likelihood with just one more. I think the B12 would take UConn over Utah assuming UConn would get that P5 money exemption from the networks. That would put Utah as being unlikely. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Jul 27, 2023 12:17:24 GMT -5
State governments (like California did in the case of UCLA) will get involved and force Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State to go in package deals to the same conference as their “sister” school. What leverage do you think the state governments of Oregon and Washington have on the Big 10? 'Cause I think their leverage is right about zero. |
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Post by chibadgerfan on Jul 27, 2023 12:51:00 GMT -5
Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal go to the Big Ten. Utah goes to the Big 12. State governments (like California did in the case of UCLA) will get involved and force Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State to go in package deals to the same conference as their “sister” school. The California regents already let UCLA go without Cal, though they're forcing UCLA to pay some kind of alimony payment. Granted, I’m saying that governments are now paying attention to conference realignment and will no longer let their individual universities completely decide for themselves . |
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Post by gr8lakes on Jul 27, 2023 13:01:47 GMT -5
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Post by chibadgerfan on Jul 27, 2023 13:05:37 GMT -5
State governments (like California did in the case of UCLA) will get involved and force Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State to go in package deals to the same conference as their “sister” school. Maybe. If they want both schools to end up in the Mountain West (or a Pac-12 that is full of current Mountain West schools) and lose out on tens of millions of dollars in revenue. The Big 12 wants Washington and Oregon. But they don't want them badly enough to add Oregon State and Washington State. Definitely a chess match / dance partner choosing situation. I agree that the PAC schools staying in the PAC / Mountain West like conference is the worst case for those schools in terms of revenue. From the State Gov perspective, the best situation is both of their schools go to the same top conference, maximizing revenue for the pair, with the stronger sister effectively subsidizing the weaker. Certainly far fetched, but you could see a State Gov shopping their pairs to the Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and ACC in hopes of starting a bidding war, much like the US Gov auctions spectrum. |
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Post by milkmandan on Jul 27, 2023 13:07:05 GMT -5
State governments (like California did in the case of UCLA) will get involved and force Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State to go in package deals to the same conference as their “sister” school. What leverage do you think the state governments of Oregon and Washington have on the Big 10? 'Cause I think their leverage is right about zero. They don't have leverage over the conferences, but they do over the schools. There's a similar story as to why Baylor got into the Big 12 when the SWC was breaking up over schools like Houston, TCU and SMU. |
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Post by chibadgerfan on Jul 27, 2023 13:11:06 GMT -5
State governments (like California did in the case of UCLA) will get involved and force Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State to go in package deals to the same conference as their “sister” school. What leverage do you think the state governments of Oregon and Washington have on the Big 10? 'Cause I think their leverage is right about zero. As gr8lakes mentions, they can create laws, issue executive orders, etc. |
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Post by n00b on Jul 27, 2023 13:19:00 GMT -5
What leverage do you think the state governments of Oregon and Washington have on the Big 10? 'Cause I think their leverage is right about zero. As gr8lakes mentions, they can create laws, issue executive orders, etc. Right. So instead of the media payouts being something like $90M for Washington and $10M for Washington State, they'll both make $25M. Sounds like a good plan! |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 27, 2023 13:32:19 GMT -5
And at the time, the Pac-12 actually needed to add someone else when they struck out on all their top choices except Colorado. They needed a 12th member so that they could play a conference championship game. But those rules have since been changed, so I don't think the Big 12 actually needs to add anyone else. I do think they'll get at least one more school, though, whether it's a Pac-12 school like Arizona or UConn as a fallback. Assuming they add just one more - what is the order you think is most likely to happen (not what the B12 would necessarily want). I am thinking Arizona and UConn are probably 50-50 in terms of likelihood with just one more. I think the B12 would take UConn over Utah assuming UConn would get that P5 money exemption from the networks. That would put Utah as being unlikely. Most likely I think is probably Arizona. But if they don't come (and no one else does), then I think it will be UConn. |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 27, 2023 13:34:27 GMT -5
What leverage do you think the state governments of Oregon and Washington have on the Big 10? 'Cause I think their leverage is right about zero. They don't have leverage over the conferences, but they do over the schools. There's a similar story as to why Baylor got into the Big 12 when the SWC was breaking up over schools like Houston, TCU and SMU. Yes and no. We saw with the California situation how this actually plays out. USC is a private school, so they were gone regardless. The UC regents could have forced UCLA to stay, but that would have meant that both UCLA and Cal were screwed instead of just Cal. So they settled on the Calimony. |
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Post by midnightblue on Jul 27, 2023 13:37:40 GMT -5
I'd be bummed if the B1G passes on Oregon...the track program and venue alone is enough (not that there isn't a lot more) I don't think the B1G passed on Oregon. Their big fish was USC (and UCLA tagged along). They haven't been shy about showing interest in continuing to mine the west coast. |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 27, 2023 13:39:21 GMT -5
I'd be bummed if the B1G passes on Oregon...the track program and venue alone is enough (not that there isn't a lot more) I don't think the B1G passed on Oregon. Their big fish was USC (and UCLA tagged along). They haven't been shy about showing interest in continuing to mine the west coast. I think the Big Ten might be interested in additional Pac-12 schools if the networks would pay top dollar for them. That doesn't seem to be the case, though. I guess we'll find out soon enough if it really was true that the Big Ten was just waiting for someone else to leave first. |
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