The Summit League 2022

[kiyoat]

USD @ SDSU game thread

LINK

[trojansc]

Hi Summit League friends.

Is Brianna Green (Denver) injured?

[kiyoat]

Oct 1, 2022 15:10:02 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Hi Summit League friends.

Is Brianna Green (Denver) injured?

I can tell you she played at USD last weekend

[kiyoat]

Oct 1, 2022 15:10:02 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Hi Summit League friends.

Is Brianna Green (Denver) injured?

So, something strange is going on with the Denver roster.  Brianna Green only played in one set vs St Thomas, and the kills leader vs USD (Hailey Green) has not played in either match vs UST or WIU.

So either there are multiple injuries (less likely), or Coach Stone is trying out some different lineups with what is a fairly deep roster, playing some of the transfer players rather than established ones?  Maybe he saw the matches vs the two doormat teams as a perfect time to experiment a little?

Lockwood from Pitt, Boyer from Texas Tech, and Fidelak from Stanford all appeared to play more in those last two matches...

[kiyoat]

NEW (first) RPI rankings! (with conference record and standing)

Rnk	Tm	All	Conf	Standing
32	South Dakota	14-2	3-1	#3T
82	Denver	9-6	3-1	#3T
99	Omaha	7-7	2-2	#5T
124	NDSU	12-5	5-0	#1
160	SDSU	8-8	2-2	#5T
.	.	.	.	.
213	North Dakota	7-9	4-1	#2
238	Oral Roberts	5-11	2-2	#5T
269	Kansas City	4-13	1-3	#8
295	St Thomas	2-15	0-5	#9T
324	Western Ill	4-13	0-5	#9T

I don't have a source for finding good wins or bad losses easily using RPI, so I'll just leave that part out for now.

Interesting that conference play has muddied the waters quite a bit with regard to rankings and standings.  Right now I'm only seeing two tiers, upper and lower, with the winner from the bottom half still making the Conference playoff.  With unbalanced schedules, we won't have a clear standings picture until a few more weeks, but the two North Dakota Schools have taken full advantage of their opportunities!

I still think that at the end of the day USD, Denver and Omaha will be the cream that rises to the top, but the XDSU challengers are getting into the mix as credible contenders, and North Dakota is having a resurrection from the dead.

ORU and KC seem to be sliding in the wrong direction, and UST and WIU can't get up off the (door) mat.

[kiyoat]

Summit Schedule with Links (all video/ stats links can be found here)

Tuesday, Oct 4

time*	away	home	predict**
7:00 PM	Omaha	Denver$$	Den 3-2

Thursday, Oct 6

time*	away	home	predict**
6:00 PM	SDSU	WIU	SDSU 3-1
7:00 PM	USD	UST	USD 3-0
7:00 PM	Denver	KC	Den 3-1
7:00 PM	Omaha	ORU	Oma 3-1

Saturday, Oct 8

time*	away	home	predict**
12:00 PM	USD	WIU	USD 3-0
12:00 PM	SDSU	UST	SDSU 3-0
1:00 PM	Omaha	KC	Oma 3-1
1:00 PM	Denver	ORU	Den 3-1
7:00 PM	UND	NDSU$$	NDSU 3-1

* all times Central Standard Time
** predictions from MasseyRatings.com
$$ premium stream 

Looks like two of the biggest matches this week (Omaha @ Denver and UND @ NDSU) will be premium streams.  On the bright side, all the rest will be free to watch.

[jaypak]

Might be time to think of NDSU in the top tier along with USD, Omaha, and Denver.

Middle tier of ORU, SDSU, and UND.

Bottom tier of KC, WIU, and STT.

[FreeBall]

Oct 3, 2022 11:03:32 GMT -5 kiyoat said:

I don't have a source for finding good wins or bad losses easily using RPI, so I'll just leave that part out for now.

I reviewed the team sheets on richkern.com and found the following numbers for the average RKPI of the current wins and losses of each team:

Team	Win Avg. (RKPI)	Loss Avg. (RKPI)
S. Dakota	134	90
Denver	190	55
Omaha	189	56
SDSU	216	109
NDSU	239	108
N. Dakota	241	160

South Dakota has the best win among this group with a 3-2 result over #31 (RKPI) New Mexico. North Dakota, SDSU and NDSU have the worst losses, including the first two having multiple losses to teams in the 200+ range of RKPI.

The numbers certainly indicate that South Dakota, Denver and Omaha have played much tougher schedules at this point in the season. This seems to support your assumption that the league champion will most likely come from that group of three schools.

[kiyoat]

Oct 3, 2022 12:48:10 GMT -5 jaypak said:

Might be time to think of NDSU in the top tier along with USD, Omaha, and Denver.

Middle tier of ORU, SDSU, and UND.

Bottom tier of KC, WIU, and STT.

Possibly... although I'd put the SDSU Jacks right alongside the Bison.  SDSU has played Omaha, Denver and USD, and beaten one of them, played another close.  NDSU has only played USD and got the 5-set win.  I'll think of the Bison above the Jacks if they can beat Omaha or Denver.  Or beat SDSU head-to-head.  RPI is skewed a little by NDSU's weak non-con schedule (which they navigated well).

When I think of tiers, I usually figure that upsets outside of that tier would be rare, both up and down.  So let's see if the Bison can keep beating top-tier teams.  I'm also very curious to see if the new UND coach can keep winning, and bring a team that was winless the previous year into a respectable finish.  That's COY territory.

[jaypak]

That's a fair point. The Jacks have shown as much as NDSU. I think of NDSU as a tougher gym to play in.

While I was looking forward to USD, Omaha, and Denver sweeping the rest of the league, the upsets pulled by NDSU and SDSU have made things more interesting, along with ORU's upset of Texas Tech.

Even St. Thomas played Omaha close, though they were swept.

[kiyoat]

Oct 4, 2022 11:15:59 GMT -5 jaypak said:

That's a fair point. The Jacks have shown as much as NDSU. I think of NDSU as a tougher gym to play in.

While I was looking forward to USD, Omaha, and Denver sweeping the rest of the league, the upsets pulled by NDSU and SDSU have made things more interesting, along with ORU's upset of Texas Tech.

Even St. Thomas played Omaha close, though they were swept.

Yeah, the question of pairity verses dominant teams within the conference doesn't necessarily tell you if the conference as a whole is good or mediocre.  For example: the upsets over USD and Omaha could demonstrate that those teams are overrated.  It could also demonstrate that other teams in the conference are improving right alongside the three highlighted ones, growing the overall strength of the conference.  Which narrative is correct?

It's a puzzle that the NCAA Tournament committee often has to figure out for a lot of conferences.  The main "conclusive" evidence being the non-conference performance.  In that way, I'd say that Omaha and South Dakota have shown strength there.  The XDSUs were not playing as well in the non-con, and maybe have improved, but I think they will find some moments of inconsistency down the line that allow Omaha, Denver and USD to secure the top seeds.

Or not.

I guess we will see.  Teams that schedule weak, and maybe don't play their best in the non-con, but then turn into giant-killers in the conference season really throw a monkey-wrench in the RPI/ at-large bid strategy of the top teams.  On the other hand, it invigorates those fan bases that tend to lose interest in a "domination" scenario.

As a rival, I strongly dislike the Jacks, and would be fine with them staying in the conference basement.  However, a healthy rivalry draws out the fans.  The Jacks just set a new program attendance record on Saturday when they hosted the Coyotes.  1,524, with a relatively large section of Coyote fans in attendance.  The Coyotes have set all-time attendance records several times over the last few years, highlighted by this year's 2,774 fans at the season opener against Louisville.  Maybe we eclipse that when we play the Jacks again at home.  The sport is coming alive in this state.

[kiyoat]

Omaha @ Denver tonight:


link

[kiyoat]

South Dakota @ St Thomas tomorrow:
link

[jaypak]

Solid road win for Omaha. They're a very good team - unless it's the 5th set.  Ruch is a blocking force, McCormick is adapting to the alpha role, Buss is a solid OH sidekick, and Jurgensmeier has really increased her role in the last few weeks. 

Interesting fact about Denver - They've been competitive against Top 100 teams, only being swept twice out of six such matches. However, they are 0-6 vs the Top 100 and are one of just 4 Summit teams not to have a T100 win (along with the 3 teams in the Summit basement).

[kiyoat]

Denver @ Oral Roberts Saturday match thread:

link