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Post by pavsec5row10 on Oct 18, 2022 13:11:04 GMT -5
High Point snubbed again. Assume the Campbell H2H is the reason, not bitterness.
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Post by Kingsley on Oct 18, 2022 13:18:25 GMT -5
How about Texas A&M-Corpus Christi? From 0-14 to tentative Southland auto-bid selection on Bracketology. Big sweep last week against Houston Baptist Christian.
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Post by raian13 on Oct 18, 2022 13:31:00 GMT -5
Hawaii not in - what an outrage! I figure I can start this We are prepared for this year.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 18, 2022 14:15:25 GMT -5
High Point snubbed again. Assume the Campbell H2H is the reason, not bitterness. The committee is the enemy - not High Point. We love mid-majors. But they should actually earn their way in (North Texas did a better job of that in that year). VCU's inclusion was probably just as worse and more fresh than the High Point scenario.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 18, 2022 14:25:57 GMT -5
Where the hell's Elon? Elon > Towson > Pitt The real question to ask is... why didn't I give Hofstra the AQ over Towson? Hofstra is 10-0 in the CAA. I wasn't ready to buy in yet. Hofstra hasn't played Delaware or Towson (the #2 and #3 in the CAA) yet.
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Post by brybast on Oct 18, 2022 14:34:46 GMT -5
High Point snubbed again. Assume the Campbell H2H is the reason, not bitterness. The committee is the enemy - not High Point. We love mid-majors. But they should actually earn their way in (North Texas did a better job of that in that year). VCU's inclusion was probably just as worse and more fresh than the High Point scenario. Has a team with zero top 100 wins ever gotten an at-large? High Point is a bit confounding because they looked competitive against Pitt, Houston and Marquette ... but then got swept by Kennesaw State and James Madison, and also lost to Campbell yikes.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 18, 2022 14:50:08 GMT -5
I ran 250 simulations - and San Diego finished 18-0 in conference play 58 (23.2%) times.
Of those 58 they finished with the following RPI:
#4 - 3 (5.2%) #5 - 17 (29.3%) #6 - 33 (56.9%) #7 - 4 (6.9%) #8 - 1 (1.7%)
I have a hard time seeing them be a regional seed if they don't at least in the T5 in RPI. That would be about a 35% chance of being a regional seed if they win out. Having wins over both Pittsburgh and Ohio State could be huge, but it would be enough for them to get the nod with the #6 RPI?
If you think #6 in RPI while going undefeated in the West Coast - then Pablo would give them just a 21.2% chance of being a regional host. If T5 in RPI is needed - then their Pablo odds would be down to 8%.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 18, 2022 15:48:13 GMT -5
The committee is the enemy - not High Point. We love mid-majors. But they should actually earn their way in (North Texas did a better job of that in that year). VCU's inclusion was probably just as worse and more fresh than the High Point scenario. Has a team with zero top 100 wins ever gotten an at-large? High Point is a bit confounding because they looked competitive against Pitt, Houston and Marquette ... but then got swept by Kennesaw State and James Madison, and also lost to Campbell yikes. Oh the High Point discussion was from years ago. They're in no consideration this year.
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Post by brybast on Oct 18, 2022 15:50:29 GMT -5
I have a hard time seeing them be a regional seed if they don't at least in the T5 in RPI. Is the committee so beholden to RPI that their top 4 seeds always come from the RPI top 5?
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 18, 2022 16:20:52 GMT -5
I have a hard time seeing them be a regional seed if they don't at least in the T5 in RPI. Is the committee so beholden to RPI that their top 4 seeds always come from the RPI top 5? Ask trojansc. I don't think any #6 RPI has been a regional seed since they went to regional seed (not a huge sample size). I don't know how often the #5 has gotten one?
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Post by slxpress on Oct 18, 2022 16:23:16 GMT -5
I have a hard time seeing them be a regional seed if they don't at least in the T5 in RPI. Is the committee so beholden to RPI that their top 4 seeds always come from the RPI top 5? I guess it depends on how close it is...but yeah. Pretty much. Same thing in basketball, too. The outcry if they didn’t would be pretty deafening. Especially in volleyball given the home court advantage it confers. In basketball you can mute the criticism on one side with a favorable regional, but then you hear it from the other side that the higher seed has to potentially play in a venue where they’ll be at a disadvantage.
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Post by volleynerd on Oct 18, 2022 16:28:51 GMT -5
Is the committee so beholden to RPI that their top 4 seeds always come from the RPI top 5? Ask trojansc. I don't think any #6 RPI has been a regional seed since they went to regional seed (not a huge sample size). I don't know how often the #5 has gotten one? I believe stanford was 5 in the rpi in 2017 and got a three seed
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 18, 2022 16:36:14 GMT -5
Ask trojansc. I don't think any #6 RPI has been a regional seed since they went to regional seed (not a huge sample size). I don't know how often the #5 has gotten one? I believe stanford was 5 in the rpi in 2017 and got a three seed Yes - but Stanford won the PAC vs. the WCC. And they would have had more than just 2 top 25 wins. Now, if both BYU and Pepperdine find their way to the T25, then it could balloon to 6. That may become a necessary condition?
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Post by brybast on Oct 18, 2022 17:16:57 GMT -5
I believe stanford was 5 in the rpi in 2017 and got a three seed Yes - but Stanford won the PAC vs. the WCC. And they would have had more than just 2 top 25 wins. Now, if both BYU and Pepperdine find their way to the T25, then it could balloon to 6. That may become a necessary condition? I would hope that the committee isn't so robotic that they treat all top 25 wins as if they were equal. San Diego is 2-1 against the RPI top 5.
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 18, 2022 17:25:10 GMT -5
I ran 250 simulations - and San Diego finished 18-0 in conference play 58 (23.2%) times. Of those 58 they finished with the following RPI: #4 - 3 (5.2%) #5 - 17 (29.3%) #6 - 33 (56.9%) #7 - 4 (6.9%) #8 - 1 (1.7%) I have a hard time seeing them be a regional seed if they don't at least in the T5 in RPI. That would be about a 35% chance of being a regional seed if they win out. Having wins over both Pittsburgh and Ohio State could be huge, but it would be enough for them to get the nod with the #6 RPI? If you think #6 in RPI while going undefeated in the West Coast - then Pablo would give them just a 21.2% chance of being a regional host. If T5 in RPI is needed - then their Pablo odds would be down to 8%. So my thing is this. If San Diego wins out in conference, I think the committee has egg on its face if it doesn’t give San Diego a top 4 seed. One of the main primary criteria is head to head and they have head to head wins over Ohio State and Pitt. The only other regional seed worthy resume would likely be Stanford, which brings up other issues, but raw RPI rank aside, if the 4th regional seed is between an undefeated San Diego, Pitt, and Ohio State, I think the answer is clear - San Diego. It's situations like this where I support the committee's "discretion" to weight certain criteria over another. But for San Diego playing in the WCC, they'd have a higher SOS and thus likely a higher aggregate RPI rank. Both of those are also primary criteria for selection, but the committee should weight head to head in this instance MORE than SOS. That kind of discretion is welcome. The committee goes off the rails when it ignores primary criteria, and cherry picks secondary criteria (like in 2019 Illinois and VCU having a better record in their last 10 despite the fact that they didn't play any tournament teams meanwhile over half of Cal's last 10 matches were against at-large teams) to fit their agenda. This is why I think there should be a secondary RPI ran to only include record and SOS against teams in the top 100. Why should the committee care that elite teams can beat the worst teams in their conference? the worst WCC team is Gonzaga at 4-15 and RPI #226. the worst ACC team is Virginia Tech at 9-10 RPI #144. San Diego can beat Gonzaga, Pitt can beat Virgina Tech, yet San Diego is hurt more in the raw RPI for playing a match the committee should not even be caring about.
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