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Post by jwvolley on Oct 18, 2022 17:32:32 GMT -5
I ran 250 simulations - and San Diego finished 18-0 in conference play 58 (23.2%) times. Of those 58 they finished with the following RPI: #4 - 3 (5.2%) #5 - 17 (29.3%) #6 - 33 (56.9%) #7 - 4 (6.9%) #8 - 1 (1.7%) I have a hard time seeing them be a regional seed if they don't at least in the T5 in RPI. That would be about a 35% chance of being a regional seed if they win out. Having wins over both Pittsburgh and Ohio State could be huge, but it would be enough for them to get the nod with the #6 RPI? If you think #6 in RPI while going undefeated in the West Coast - then Pablo would give them just a 21.2% chance of being a regional host. If T5 in RPI is needed - then their Pablo odds would be down to 8%. So my thing is this. If San Diego wins out in conference, I think the committee has egg on its face if it doesn’t give San Diego a top 4 seed. One of the main primary criteria is head to head and they have head to head wins over Ohio State and Pitt. The only other regional seed worthy resume would likely be Stanford, which brings up other issues, but raw RPI rank aside, if the 4th regional seed is between an undefeated San Diego, Pitt, and Ohio State, I think the answer is clear - San Diego. Isn’t strength of schedule above H2H on the criteria list? Ohio State at #1 SOS vs. San Diego at #48 catches my eye
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Post by slxpress on Oct 18, 2022 17:39:32 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ohio State wins out we’re likely talking about San Diego versus Nebraska for the 4th seed. Not Ohio State.
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 18, 2022 17:41:03 GMT -5
So my thing is this. If San Diego wins out in conference, I think the committee has egg on its face if it doesn’t give San Diego a top 4 seed. One of the main primary criteria is head to head and they have head to head wins over Ohio State and Pitt. The only other regional seed worthy resume would likely be Stanford, which brings up other issues, but raw RPI rank aside, if the 4th regional seed is between an undefeated San Diego, Pitt, and Ohio State, I think the answer is clear - San Diego. Isn’t strength of schedule above H2H on the criteria list? Ohio State at #1 SOS vs. San Diego at #48 catches my eye above? no.... at least not that I'm aware of. From the championship manual: In addition to Bylaw 31.3.3, the Women’s Volleyball Committee has received approval from the NCAA Division I Competition Oversight Committee to consider the following criteria in the selection of at-large teams for the volleyball championship (not necessarily in priority order): Primary Criteria ● Rating Percentage Index. ● Head-to-head competition. ● Results versus common opponents. ● Significant wins and losses.
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 18, 2022 17:42:38 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ohio State wins out we’re likely talking about San Diego versus Nebraska for the 4th seed. Not Ohio State. correct.
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Post by jwvolley on Oct 18, 2022 17:43:28 GMT -5
Isn’t strength of schedule above H2H on the criteria list? Ohio State at #1 SOS vs. San Diego at #48 catches my eye above? no.... Primary Criteria ● Rating Percentage Index. ● Head-to-head competition. ● Results versus common opponents. ● Significant wins and losses. I was basing it off a previous post of yours: This is what the rules say is the selection criteria SELECTION CRITERIA The following criteria shall be employed by a governing sports committee in selecting participants for NCAA championships competition [Bylaw 31.3.3; Criteria for Selection of Participants]: ● Won-lost record; ● Strength of schedule; and ● Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships. In addition to Bylaw 31.3.3, the Women’s Volleyball Committee has received approval from the NCAA Division I Competition Oversight Committee to consider the following criteria in the selection of at-large teams for the volleyball championship (not necessarily in priority order): Primary Criteria ● Rating Percentage Index. ● Head-to-head competition. ● Results versus common opponents. ● Significant wins and losses.
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Post by slxpress on Oct 18, 2022 17:45:11 GMT -5
Isn’t strength of schedule above H2H on the criteria list? Ohio State at #1 SOS vs. San Diego at #48 catches my eye above? no.... Primary Criteria ● Rating Percentage Index. ● Head-to-head competition. ● Results versus common opponents. ● Significant wins and losses. What it should add: - geographically located on the neglected west coast* * outside of Stanford
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Post by mnsports255 on Oct 18, 2022 17:45:21 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ohio State wins out we’re likely talking about San Diego versus Nebraska for the 4th seed. Not Ohio State. No doubt Ohio State winning out gives them a very compelling argument for the 3 overall, but i think that’s moot. Going the entire back half of the B1G season without a loss is going to be dang near impossible for any of the top teams imo. I’d guess Ohio State loses twice more this season… not sure where that would put them? The 5 overall seed?
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 18, 2022 17:48:30 GMT -5
above? no.... Primary Criteria ● Rating Percentage Index. ● Head-to-head competition. ● Results versus common opponents. ● Significant wins and losses. I was basing it off a previous post of yours: This is what the rules say is the selection criteria SELECTION CRITERIA The following criteria shall be employed by a governing sports committee in selecting participants for NCAA championships competition [Bylaw 31.3.3; Criteria for Selection of Participants]: ● Won-lost record; ● Strength of schedule; and ● Eligibility and availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships. In addition to Bylaw 31.3.3, the Women’s Volleyball Committee has received approval from the NCAA Division I Competition Oversight Committee to consider the following criteria in the selection of at-large teams for the volleyball championship (not necessarily in priority order): Primary Criteria ● Rating Percentage Index. ● Head-to-head competition. ● Results versus common opponents. ● Significant wins and losses. Right, "not necessarily in priority order" What I take this to mean is that RPI, which the unadjusted RPI exclusively encompasses won-los record and SOS, Head to Head competition, results against common opponents, and significant wins/losses are the primary criteria in which to evaluate teams for selection. If a decision still can't be made after taking into consideration the primary criteria (not in priority order), then the secondary criteria comes into play - late season performance, regional advisory committee rankings, etc. I think that if the 4th seed is between San Diego, Pitt, and Ohio State, San Diego having wins over both of the teams seems pretty compelling to me.
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Post by slxpress on Oct 18, 2022 17:52:09 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ohio State wins out we’re likely talking about San Diego versus Nebraska for the 4th seed. Not Ohio State. No doubt Ohio State winning out gives them a very compelling argument for the 3 overall, but i think that’s moot. Going the entire back half of the B1G season without a loss is going to be dang near impossible for any of the top teams imo. I’d guess Ohio State loses twice more this season… not sure where that would put them? The 5 overall seed? I don’t have a strong opinion one way or another. But the speculation being put forth was an undefeated Ohio State, Pitt, and San Diego. Heck, if Pitt beats Louisville twice that may change the argument there, too. It’s going to be tough to see Louisville get a top 4 seed over Pitt in that instance. But I’m not predicting either Ohio State or Pitt are going undefeated. I’m merely pointing out that making that assumption has the ancillary effect of changing fundamental aspects of the hypothetical so that it becomes a different hypothetical simply on the basis of the underlying assumption.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 18, 2022 18:07:20 GMT -5
So my thing is this. If San Diego wins out in conference, I think the committee has egg on its face if it doesn’t give San Diego a top 4 seed. One of the main primary criteria is head to head and they have head to head wins over Ohio State and Pitt. The only other regional seed worthy resume would likely be Stanford, which brings up other issues, but raw RPI rank aside, if the 4th regional seed is between an undefeated San Diego, Pitt, and Ohio State, I think the answer is clear - San Diego. Isn’t strength of schedule above H2H on the criteria list? Ohio State at #1 SOS vs. San Diego at #48 catches my eye That’s the thing about S.O.S. And W/L. RPI basically tells you S.O.S and W/L Record combined. If San Diego and Ohio State are adjacent - you know that Ohio St.’s strength of schedule is much better because they lost a lot more than San Diego. I’d rather look at other factors.
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 18, 2022 18:44:07 GMT -5
Isn’t strength of schedule above H2H on the criteria list? Ohio State at #1 SOS vs. San Diego at #48 catches my eye That’s the thing about S.O.S. And W/L. RPI basically tells you S.O.S and W/L Record combined. If San Diego and Ohio State are adjacent - you know that Ohio St.’s strength of schedule is much better because they lost a lot more than San Diego. I’d rather look at other factors. right.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 18, 2022 20:37:23 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ohio State wins out we’re likely talking about San Diego versus Nebraska for the 4th seed. Not Ohio State. But let us not forget Stanford in all of this. If they win out (about a 5% chance) - they will have a claim to a regional seed where they likely finish with an RPI of 4 or 5 and better than USD. What if Pittsburgh beats Louisville twice - they probably move ahead of Louisville even though there is still a chance Louisville has a better RPI. Most of this will take care of itself, not all the top teams continue to just win.
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Post by slxpress on Oct 18, 2022 20:46:28 GMT -5
Honestly, if Ohio State wins out we’re likely talking about San Diego versus Nebraska for the 4th seed. Not Ohio State. But let us not forget Stanford in all of this. If they win out (about a 5% chance) - they will have a claim to a regional seed where they likely finish with an RPI of 4 or 5 and better than USD. What if Pittsburgh beats Louisville twice - they probably move ahead of Louisville even though there is still a chance Louisville has a better RPI. Most of this will take care of itself, not all the top teams continue to just win. I’m with you. Maybe USD loses and makes it all moot? Maybe a nuclear war begins and we’re cheering on our favorite Vault Tec teams? But all the speculation is part of the fun - and anxiety. Thinking up worst case scenarios that produce maximum confusion is practically a cottage industry in competitive sports.
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Post by GatorsChomp on Oct 18, 2022 22:06:44 GMT -5
I like the way they're doing the seedings for the regional <3 or maybe it's bc I like to see a top 5 number next to Florida's name <3
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 19, 2022 7:43:23 GMT -5
But let us not forget Stanford in all of this. If they win out (about a 5% chance) - they will have a claim to a regional seed where they likely finish with an RPI of 4 or 5 and better than USD. What if Pittsburgh beats Louisville twice - they probably move ahead of Louisville even though there is still a chance Louisville has a better RPI. Most of this will take care of itself, not all the top teams continue to just win. I’m with you. Maybe USD loses and makes it all moot? Maybe a nuclear war begins and we’re cheering on our favorite Vault Tec teams? But all the speculation is part of the fun - and anxiety. Thinking up worst case scenarios that produce maximum confusion is practically a cottage industry in competitive sports. Heck - I am a promoter and contributor to mock speculations, I generally love them. I just have to keep tempering myself on the likelihood of unexpected wins and losses changing things.
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