Fall 2022 Bracketology (10/31)

[clob]

All I know is that I don't want to see KU as a low seed in my favorite team's bracket.

[katn]

Oct 31, 2022 21:20:11 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Oct 31, 2022 20:46:08 GMT -5 GatorsChomp said:

lowkey I aint gonna lie.... if Dotson can get going... and the LSU defense + block stays strong... it won't be an easy match for Texas to win

Khat Bell will come down from the stands like an Old Testament prophet at 2-1 LSU to put the fear of God into the team and rally them to victory.

Thus saith the Lord.

lmao...go khat

[donut]

Oct 31, 2022 21:20:11 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Oct 31, 2022 20:46:08 GMT -5 GatorsChomp said:

lowkey I aint gonna lie.... if Dotson can get going... and the LSU defense + block stays strong... it won't be an easy match for Texas to win

Khat Bell will come down from the stands like an Old Testament prophet at 2-1 LSU to put the fear of God into the team and rally them to victory.

Thus saith the Lord.

So they win 3-2, and then lose 2-3 the next round?

ill take it

[slxpress]

Oct 31, 2022 21:43:33 GMT -5 donut said:

Oct 31, 2022 21:20:11 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Khat Bell will come down from the stands like an Old Testament prophet at 2-1 LSU to put the fear of God into the team and rally them to victory.

Thus saith the Lord.

So they win 3-2, and then lose 2-3 the next round?

ill take it

Thankfully we wouldn't see Louisville until the Final Four.

I ain't making no guarantees from the Sweet Sixteen onwards. But by hook or by crook Texas will find a way to the 2nd weekend. It's a birthright. After that all bets are off. 

[cbrown1709]

A lot of revenge matches in this scenario.

[hornshouse23]

Quite frankly. No one is safe.

[trojansc]

Oct 31, 2022 21:04:37 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Oct 31, 2022 20:39:06 GMT -5 brybast said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb right now (not really) and say no way in hell does Yale get seeded

Pablo has them with a 38% chance of winning the remaining matches (there is only 4 of them).  They are an underdog this Saturday @ Princeton.

If they win them all - they would have an average RPI rank of #25.  They would have a top 50 win over James Madison.  I wouldn't bet against them being an 8 seed.  

I think the bigger conversation should be about whether or not Yale can get an at-large. 

The Ivy League has a tournament now....     

[n00b]

Nov 1, 2022 1:05:34 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 31, 2022 21:04:37 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Pablo has them with a 38% chance of winning the remaining matches (there is only 4 of them).  They are an underdog this Saturday @ Princeton.

If they win them all - they would have an average RPI rank of #25.  They would have a top 50 win over James Madison.  I wouldn't bet against them being an 8 seed.  

I think the bigger conversation should be about whether or not Yale can get an at-large. 

The Ivy League has a tournament now....     

Nice! I didn’t know that.

If we could only convince the major conferences to add a tourney…

[mikegarrison]

Tournaments are for 1-bid conferences, so their schools can experience a year-end tournament.

They are also good for when the conference tournament will draw enough attention that it is a revenue source to the conference.

But otherwise, if you are reliably a multi-bid conference, they are at best just a waste of time and money, and at worst a chance for one of your teams to actually play themselves out of a bid.

[trojansc]

Nov 1, 2022 3:00:27 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

But otherwise, if you are reliably a multi-bid conference, they are at best just a waste of time and money, and at worst a chance for one of your teams to actually play themselves out of a bid.

You don't have to take all of your conference teams to the conference tournament (and the majority don't)

Many teams can play themselves 'in' to the tournament. Mid-majors who are in bubble/seed range usually see increases in their RPI rankings with the conference tournaments more often than not (obviously unless they take a big loss).

Take the Mountain West tournament for example this year. That is extremely likely to be a net positive for the conference rather than a negative or anyone playing themselves out.

In the B1G or PAC for example though, maybe the bubble teams could get hot and win it all. Extremely unlikely, yeah. But at least getting to the final would likely be enough to put those teams in, heck, in some cases, even just making the semifinals. It's not like the losses most teams would take in that tournament are going to be season ending.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 1, 2022 1:05:34 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 31, 2022 21:04:37 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Pablo has them with a 38% chance of winning the remaining matches (there is only 4 of them).  They are an underdog this Saturday @ Princeton.

If they win them all - they would have an average RPI rank of #25.  They would have a top 50 win over James Madison.  I wouldn't bet against them being an 8 seed.  

I think the bigger conversation should be about whether or not Yale can get an at-large. 

The Ivy League has a tournament now....     

Didn't know about the League tournament for the Ivy.  If Yale isn't an automatic bid, then they didn't win the rest of their matches and changes the dynamic.

Here is something I have noticed - curious your opinion.  Back when we were thinking in terms of subregional 3 and 4 seeds, it seemed like the committee always had a preference for the at-large team over the 1 bid conference automatic.  In this example - if Yale was to lose their conference tournament, and they decided to give them an at-large - they were likely going to end up being a '3' seed in the subregional.  However, if they had won that last match, they would have likely been a '4' seed.  I think it is fairly uncommon for at-large teams to be a '4' seed, which ends up pushing some top autos from a 1 bid conference to a '4' seed.  All bets were off in this example for those Eastern schools where they were just looking for the best team to place at PSU or Pitt.

[aardvark]

As far as the original post goes, the choice of top eight teams roughly matches my expectations. That continues up until your final listed #3 seed of
Kentucky.

I kind of doubt that both Florida and Kentucky will land #3 seedings, as they still have to play each other twice. Kentucky is lagging a bit in the RPI.
They'd need to win twice to lift themselves into contention, but I think that would cause Florida to drop out.

My other quibble with your seedings is that I don't think the state of Texas will get 4. One of Rice or Houston should slip down a peg to gain more
regional hosting balance.

[stevehorn]

Nov 1, 2022 1:12:11 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 1, 2022 1:05:34 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I think the bigger conversation should be about whether or not Yale can get an at-large. 

The Ivy League has a tournament now....     

Nice! I didn’t know that.

If we could only convince the major conferences to add a tourney…

What would that accomplish?

[trojansc]

Nov 1, 2022 7:20:57 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 1, 2022 1:05:34 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I think the bigger conversation should be about whether or not Yale can get an at-large. 

The Ivy League has a tournament now....     

Didn't know about the League tournament for the Ivy.  If Yale isn't an automatic bid, then they didn't win the rest of their matches and changes the dynamic.

Here is something I have noticed - curious your opinion.  Back when we were thinking in terms of subregional 3 and 4 seeds, it seemed like the committee always had a preference for the at-large team over the 1 bid conference automatic.  In this example - if Yale was to lose their conference tournament, and they decided to give them an at-large - they were likely going to end up being a '3' seed in the subregional.  However, if they had won that last match, they would have likely been a '4' seed.  I think it is fairly uncommon for at-large teams to be a '4' seed, which ends up pushing some top autos from a 1 bid conference to a '4' seed.  All bets were off in this example for those Eastern schools where they were just looking for the best team to place at PSU or Pitt.

Last year putting Ole Miss as a #4 seed (despite not being last 4 in) made no sense… they made Northern Colorado, with a worse RPI and profile, a #3 seed.

Generally there are at least , or very close to, 16 teams with RPI’s worse than the last at-large so it just works out that way anyways.

I remember one time they made Oregon a 4-seed and sent them to Wisconsin. But maybe that was like 10 years ago.

[trojansc]

Nov 1, 2022 8:44:56 GMT -5 aardvark said:

As far as the original post goes, the choice of top eight teams roughly matches my expectations. That continues up until your final listed #3 seed of
Kentucky.

I kind of doubt that both Florida and Kentucky will land #3 seedings, as they still have to play each other twice. Kentucky is lagging a bit in the RPI.
They'd need to win twice to lift themselves into contention, but I think that would cause Florida to drop out.

My other quibble with your seedings is that I don't think the state of Texas will get 4. One of Rice or Houston should slip down a peg to gain more
regional hosting balance.

Kentucky and Florida could also split. I don’t think either team getting swept will kill their hosting chances.

As far as Rice/Houston, if they are top 16 teams in the criteria, the committee should do the ethical thing.