Fall 2022 Bracketology (10/31)

[jayj79]

Nov 1, 2022 12:33:41 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sure. I'm wondering how many conferences have even double round robins though with H&H. I'm not sure of the total number, but I'd bet less than half the conference do... Only one in the current Power 5 alignment does.

I'm heavily in favor of the NCAA requiring that conferences MUST have double round robin regular season play where each team plays every other team in the conference once at each school (i.e. h&h) in the sports where 2+ contests are feasible (vb, basketball, etc). If you can't do that, then your conference is too big and should have to reduce numbers.

[oldnewbie]

Nov 1, 2022 11:58:01 GMT -5 jayj79 said:

Nov 1, 2022 11:40:52 GMT -5 oldnewbie said:

They made it in because the playoffs were expanded to include teams that didn't make it. They then won a play-in series against another team who wasn't good enough to make it.

which is essentially what happens when someone knocks off the regular season conference champion in the conference tournament to get that conference's one and only ncaa tournament bid.
(except in the MLB case, that first series is actually part of the playoffs, not a "play-in")

Semantics, but any time some teams are held out with byes while other teams have to play to get to the next level, that is for all intents and purposes a play-in.

In that regard, I am fully in favor of greatly expanding the NCAA tourney (and doing away with conference tournaments). For instance, you could have 32 seeded teams (like we do now), and then instead of trying to pick the next 32 teams they could pick the next 128 teams and have a 1 weekend tournament (in the place of conference tournaments) to reduce that 128 down to the second 32 we currently have. That would do a much better job of  choosing a competitive second 32, without the top teams having to play matches that are completely beneath their level.

[stevehorn]

Nov 1, 2022 11:51:00 GMT -5 jayj79 said:

Nov 1, 2022 11:24:02 GMT -5 stevehorn said:

Not a fan of the conference tournament in any sport when there is a regular season schedule that determines a champion.  

so you're saying there shouldn't be a conference tournament in any of the team sports?

That would be my preference, but of course I'm not the decision maker.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 1, 2022 12:39:03 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Nov 1, 2022 12:33:41 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sure. I'm wondering how many conferences have even double round robins though with H&H. I'm not sure of the total number, but I'd bet less than half the conference do... Only one in the current Power 5 alignment does.

That's going away next year after they add BYU, UH, Cincinnati and UCF.

The B12 better be thinking an 18-game conference season and not 20 or more.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 1, 2022 12:48:48 GMT -5 jayj79 said:

Nov 1, 2022 12:33:41 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Sure. I'm wondering how many conferences have even double round robins though with H&H. I'm not sure of the total number, but I'd bet less than half the conference do... Only one in the current Power 5 alignment does.

I'm heavily in favor of the NCAA requiring that conferences MUST have double round robin regular season play where each team plays every other team in the conference once at each school (i.e. h&h) in the sports where 2+ contests are feasible (vb, basketball, etc). If you can't do that, then your conference is too big and should have to reduce numbers.

I guess - if you are really interested in making it more difficult for Creighton to host.

[Kingsley]

Just wait until we get another Ivy League Playoff this year.

[boxcariii]

I have one "hot take" on this week's bracket prediction. Marquette is a host and Creighton is not in the predicted bracket. Both resumes are weak as of this post and Creighton has the H2H win in the 1st matchup (of the two guaranteed matches). Really don't have a problem with Creighton not hosting (resume is weak) even though I do want it. It should be noted that Creighton has two non-conference opponents sitting just outside the RPI top 25 (Fla St and Iowa St) and one just inside it (USC, get off the snide).

What I do have a problem with is Marquette getting the nod AND not Creighton as of today. I think both should not be predicted as hosts as of today. If one has to be predicted, it should be Creighton. Marquette only is the bad take, similar resumes, CU gets the H2H "nod". But if you predict Marquette, I think you have to predict Creighton too as today (again, my opinion is neither should be predicted).

Ask me on November 26th after what is presumably their 3rd and final match, I could be singing a different tune. If Marquette takes the last two* matches, I will have zero issue with them hosting and not Creighton. If KBB continues to pwn Theis, then things will work out.

*Since I'm assuming both will play in the tourney final, either St. John's or UConn will upset one or both of them, making this entire post moot. 

[trojansc]

Nov 1, 2022 13:09:13 GMT -5 Kingsley said:

Just wait until we get another Ivy League Playoff this year.

There is an actual Ivy League Tournament now. No more of that Playoff when tied thing.

[Kingsley]

Nov 1, 2022 13:23:28 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 1, 2022 13:09:13 GMT -5 Kingsley said:

Just wait until we get another Ivy League Playoff this year.

There is an actual Ivy League Tournament now. No more of that Playoff when tied thing.

Oh snap, it's about time. It's the least they can do for starting the season late and ending early.

[trojansc]

Nov 1, 2022 13:19:15 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

I have one "hot take" on this week's bracket prediction. Marquette is a host and Creighton is not in the predicted bracket. Both resumes are weak as of this post and Creighton has the H2H win in the 1st matchup (of the two guaranteed matches). Really don't have a problem with Creighton not hosting (resume is weak) even though I do want it. It should be noted that Creighton has two non-conference opponents sitting just outside the RPI top 25 (Fla St and Iowa St) and one just inside it (USC, get off the snide).

What I do have a problem with is Marquette getting the nod AND not Creighton as of today. I think both should not be predicted as hosts as of today. If one has to be predicted, it should be Creighton. Marquette only is the bad take, similar resumes, CU gets the H2H "nod". But if you predict Marquette, I think you have to predict Creighton too as today (again, my opinion is neither should be predicted).

Ask me on November 26th after what is presumably their 3rd and final match, I could be singing a different tune. If Marquette takes the last two* matches, I will have zero issue with them hosting and not Creighton. If KBB continues to pwn Theis, then things will work out.

*Since I'm assuming both will play in the tourney final, either St. John's or UConn will upset one or both of them, making this entire post moot. 

Just for clarity in case you may be confused, I don't base Bracketology off of results as of today. It is *a* prediction that shows what the season's end could look like.

That could change week to week - and sometimes not make 'sense' as to why I make a certain pick. Especially if there are toss-ups for AQ's, I can rotate them to show how a bracket may change. Towards the end though and in general I like to stick with what I believe will be the most likely, whether that's by Pablo/RPI Futures/etc. 

I think it's quite hard to see neither BE Team getting the nod given their RPI futures and one will likely be the conference champ beating the other.     

[hornshouse23]

Texas, Baylor, Houston and Rice all potentially hosting is music to my ears. The sheer chaos factor alone is like a hit of something nice. Now if only we can do right by San Diego, I’ll be content.

[boxcariii]

Nov 1, 2022 13:30:21 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 1, 2022 13:19:15 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

I have one "hot take" on this week's bracket prediction. Marquette is a host and Creighton is not in the predicted bracket. Both resumes are weak as of this post and Creighton has the H2H win in the 1st matchup (of the two guaranteed matches). Really don't have a problem with Creighton not hosting (resume is weak) even though I do want it. It should be noted that Creighton has two non-conference opponents sitting just outside the RPI top 25 (Fla St and Iowa St) and one just inside it (USC, get off the snide).

What I do have a problem with is Marquette getting the nod AND not Creighton as of today. I think both should not be predicted as hosts as of today. If one has to be predicted, it should be Creighton. Marquette only is the bad take, similar resumes, CU gets the H2H "nod". But if you predict Marquette, I think you have to predict Creighton too as today (again, my opinion is neither should be predicted).

Ask me on November 26th after what is presumably their 3rd and final match, I could be singing a different tune. If Marquette takes the last two* matches, I will have zero issue with them hosting and not Creighton. If KBB continues to pwn Theis, then things will work out.

*Since I'm assuming both will play in the tourney final, either St. John's or UConn will upset one or both of them, making this entire post moot. 

Just for clarity in case you may be confused, I don't base Bracketology off of results as of today. It is *a* prediction that shows what the season's end could look like.

That could change week to week - and sometimes not make 'sense' as to why I make a certain pick. Especially if there are toss-ups for AQ's, I can rotate them to show how a bracket may change. Towards the end though and in general I like to stick with what I believe will be the most likely, whether that's by Pablo/RPI Futures/etc. 

I think it's quite hard to see neither BE Team getting the nod given their RPI futures and one will likely be the conference champ beating the other.     

Your disclaimer does say that. 

[raian13]

Auburn vs USC

hahahaha….

[bluepenquin]

Nov 1, 2022 13:30:21 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 1, 2022 13:19:15 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

I have one "hot take" on this week's bracket prediction. Marquette is a host and Creighton is not in the predicted bracket. Both resumes are weak as of this post and Creighton has the H2H win in the 1st matchup (of the two guaranteed matches). Really don't have a problem with Creighton not hosting (resume is weak) even though I do want it. It should be noted that Creighton has two non-conference opponents sitting just outside the RPI top 25 (Fla St and Iowa St) and one just inside it (USC, get off the snide).

What I do have a problem with is Marquette getting the nod AND not Creighton as of today. I think both should not be predicted as hosts as of today. If one has to be predicted, it should be Creighton. Marquette only is the bad take, similar resumes, CU gets the H2H "nod". But if you predict Marquette, I think you have to predict Creighton too as today (again, my opinion is neither should be predicted).

Ask me on November 26th after what is presumably their 3rd and final match, I could be singing a different tune. If Marquette takes the last two* matches, I will have zero issue with them hosting and not Creighton. If KBB continues to pwn Theis, then things will work out.

*Since I'm assuming both will play in the tourney final, either St. John's or UConn will upset one or both of them, making this entire post moot. 

Just for clarity in case you may be confused, I don't base Bracketology off of results as of today. It is *a* prediction that shows what the season's end could look like.

That could change week to week - and sometimes not make 'sense' as to why I make a certain pick. Especially if there are toss-ups for AQ's, I can rotate them to show how a bracket may change. Towards the end though and in general I like to stick with what I believe will be the most likely, whether that's by Pablo/RPI Futures/etc. 

I think it's quite hard to see neither BE Team getting the nod given their RPI futures and one will likely be the conference champ beating the other.     

Both Creighton and Marquette are going to be T16 RPI teams at the end of the year - adding the BE tournament will help in terms of the current RPI Futures.  The caveat being that they lose games to someone other than each other.

They play each other two more times - if things go to chalk in the BE tournament.  My sense - if either team wins both, they will be in and if either team loses both, they are probably out.  A split, and I think there is a good chance both make it.  The issue with Creighton will be their H2H loss to Rice (that is if Rice can get by Western Kentucky, they could play them 2 more times).  But a split would put them 2-1 against Marquette.

Systematic to this season, so much is backloaded.  Creighton hosts Marquette on 11/19.  Then the BE championship game is 11/26 - the day before the brackets come out.  Both matches would be at Creighton.

Rice travels to Western Kentucky next Thursday (11/10) and then would get them again for the conference championship on 11/20.

UCF hosts Houston for their last match of the season on 11/25 - the Friday before the brackets come out.  

And then all the B1G craziness coming up that last week.

[boxcariii]

Nov 1, 2022 14:31:18 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 1, 2022 13:30:21 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Just for clarity in case you may be confused, I don't base Bracketology off of results as of today. It is *a* prediction that shows what the season's end could look like.

That could change week to week - and sometimes not make 'sense' as to why I make a certain pick. Especially if there are toss-ups for AQ's, I can rotate them to show how a bracket may change. Towards the end though and in general I like to stick with what I believe will be the most likely, whether that's by Pablo/RPI Futures/etc. 

I think it's quite hard to see neither BE Team getting the nod given their RPI futures and one will likely be the conference champ beating the other.     

Both Creighton and Marquette are going to be T16 RPI teams at the end of the year - adding the BE tournament will help in terms of the current RPI Futures.  The caveat being that they lose games to someone other than each other.

They play each other two more times - if things go to chalk in the BE tournament.  My sense - if either team wins both, they will be in and if either team loses both, they are probably out.  A split, and I think there is a good chance both make it.  The issue with Creighton will be their H2H loss to Rice (that is if Rice can get by Western Kentucky, they could play them 2 more times).  But a split would put them 2-1 against Marquette.

Systematic to this season, so much is backloaded.  Creighton hosts Marquette on 11/19.  Then the BE championship game is 11/26 - the day before the brackets come out.  Both matches would be at Creighton.

Rice travels to Western Kentucky next Thursday (11/10) and then would get them again for the conference championship on 11/20.

UCF hosts Houston for their last match of the season on 11/25 - the Friday before the brackets come out.  

And then all the B1G craziness coming up that last week.

Actually, Creighton visits Marquette on 11/19. Thanks for reminding me they switched weekends and I missed the match in Omaha. Creighton does host the BE Tourney this year though.