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Post by horns1 on Nov 20, 2022 0:23:58 GMT -5
Texas, Louisville, Best B1G Team, and Stanford OR San Diego looks to be the most likely scenario at this point for Top 4 seeds, right? This also seems most likely, but - zero B1G teams should be on the table. Pitt is probably going to be #3 RPI if they win their last 2 matches (BC and of course GT have good records). Still seems like a bit of longshot for the ACC to get 2.Ohio State with 6 losses and one of them to a sub 100 RPI team- even if they win the rest - seems like a problem to me. Wisky has an absolute minefield left on the schedule, but if they beat Nebraska and lose to OSU - the whole conference possibly goes down for a regional seed. Then I am seeing - Texas, Louisville, San Diego, and Stanford. This would actually spread out the top B1G teams across the regionals and they probably end up getting 4 teams into the FF with none of the regional hosts advancing. Even if Pittsburgh wins out and finishes #3 in RPI, their 4-2 record versus RPI Top 25 teams won't stack up, IMO, and losing at home to Towson should not be overlooked. Other teams fighting for the last two Top 4 national seeds: - Stanford: 5-4 - Ohio State: 7-5 - Wisconsin: 7-3 - Nebraska: 5-3 They are currently only better than Florida 2-2, and San Diego 2-1.
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Post by erikshoji on Nov 20, 2022 7:48:09 GMT -5
Also - I guess Texas State has a shot at an at-large bid if they lose to James Madison? They could have a Top 25 win (JMU) and another T50 win (TCU). Lots going on! Per Figstats, Texas State currently has an unadjusted RPI of 57 without their last two conference tournament wins. Depending on their match today against James Madison, they could move into the Top 50. After looking at teams they played who are looking at the bubble, this would help Hawaii and UCLA. And if James Madison loses this conference championship match, what happens to their RPI? They lose a match but potentially gain a top 50 win.
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Post by erikshoji on Nov 20, 2022 10:35:36 GMT -5
Figstats has update with some results from conference tournaments. Notably, James Madison is now unmodified RPI #26 and Texas State is now unmodified #41. Both in contention for an at-large berth now! Tonight’s match should be interesting!
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Post by badgersinsix on Nov 20, 2022 10:53:21 GMT -5
This also seems most likely, but - zero B1G teams should be on the table. Pitt is probably going to be #3 RPI if they win their last 2 matches (BC and of course GT have good records). Still seems like a bit of longshot for the ACC to get 2.Ohio State with 6 losses and one of them to a sub 100 RPI team- even if they win the rest - seems like a problem to me. Wisky has an absolute minefield left on the schedule, but if they beat Nebraska and lose to OSU - the whole conference possibly goes down for a regional seed. Then I am seeing - Texas, Louisville, San Diego, and Stanford. This would actually spread out the top B1G teams across the regionals and they probably end up getting 4 teams into the FF with none of the regional hosts advancing. Even if Pittsburgh wins out and finishes #3 in RPI, their 4-2 record versus RPI Top 25 teams won't stack up, IMO, and losing at home to Towson should not be overlooked. Other teams fighting for the last two Top 4 national seeds: - Stanford: 5-4 - Ohio State: 7-5 - Wisconsin: 7-3 - Nebraska: 5-3 They are currently only better than Florida 2-2, and San Diego 2-1. By "better than" do you only mean more wins? Because if you look at win percentage it's Wisconsin (.700), Pittsburgh (.667), San Diego (.667), Nebraska (.625), Ohio State (.583), Stanford (.556), Florida (.500)
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Post by horns1 on Nov 20, 2022 11:08:15 GMT -5
Even if Pittsburgh wins out and finishes #3 in RPI, their 4-2 record versus RPI Top 25 teams won't stack up, IMO, and losing at home to Towson should not be overlooked. Other teams fighting for the last two Top 4 national seeds: - Stanford: 5-4 - Ohio State: 7-5 - Wisconsin: 7-3 - Nebraska: 5-3 They are currently only better than Florida 2-2, and San Diego 2-1. By "better than" do you only mean more wins? Because if you look at win percentage it's Wisconsin (.700), Pittsburgh (.667), San Diego (.667), Nebraska (.625), Ohio State (.583), Stanford (.556), Florida (.500) I do mean number of wins. If a team had a 3-0 record versus RPI Top 25 teams, that would equate to 100%. So, percentage doesn’t tell the story.
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Post by badgersinsix on Nov 20, 2022 12:10:11 GMT -5
By "better than" do you only mean more wins? Because if you look at win percentage it's Wisconsin (.700), Pittsburgh (.667), San Diego (.667), Nebraska (.625), Ohio State (.583), Stanford (.556), Florida (.500) I do mean number of wins. If a team had a 3-0 record versus RPI Top 25 teams, that would equate to 100%. So, percentage doesn’t tell the story. And say Ohio State was instead 5-7. Still better than Pittsburgh at 4-2?
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 20, 2022 13:44:40 GMT -5
the whole system of T25/T50 bonuses is designed to give P5 an advantage over mid-majors, and yet people still whine that it doesn't give a big enough advantage to them. good grief.
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Post by horns1 on Nov 20, 2022 13:51:30 GMT -5
I do mean number of wins. If a team had a 3-0 record versus RPI Top 25 teams, that would equate to 100%. So, percentage doesn’t tell the story. And say Ohio State was instead 5-7. Still better than Pittsburgh at 4-2? I've only ever heard past committees talk about the " number of wins versus RPI Top 25 teams". In your scenario, the team playing twelve RPI Top 25 teams compared to the team who has only played six RPI Top 25 teams probably has such a huge SOS ranking advantage that would also result in a huge RPI ranking advantage.
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Post by madden55 on Nov 20, 2022 15:50:08 GMT -5
Northwestern is definitely out now right? After getting swept by MSU again lol ?
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Post by bracketbuster on Nov 20, 2022 15:54:50 GMT -5
Ohio State has got to have fallen down to the 8 seed at this point, right?
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Post by raian13 on Nov 20, 2022 15:55:59 GMT -5
Ohio State has got to have fallen down to the 8 seed at this point, right? Ohio State and regional seed shouldn’t even be in the same sentence at this point.
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Post by bracketbuster on Nov 20, 2022 15:58:42 GMT -5
Ohio State has got to have fallen down to the 8 seed at this point, right? Ohio State and regional seed shouldn’t even be in the same sentence at this point. They're far gone from that. The top 8 for a while now has been pretty separated from everyone else, but at 7 losses now (don't care how tough your schedule was), including 2 very bad ones, they're about to be battling Minnesota/Florida/Kentucky and those likes for 9/10/11.
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Post by mcmike on Nov 20, 2022 16:03:48 GMT -5
Kentucky's sweep of FLA today coupled with OSU upset
should roil the RPIs in the 9-12 ranking.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 20, 2022 16:51:41 GMT -5
Ohio State bombing this week brings up an interesting scenario next week. Say we get this result:
Wisconsin def. Nebraska Ohio State def. Wisconsin
Stanford doesn't lose, Pitt doesn't lose, San Diego doesn't lose
I'm not sure the committee could justify a Big 10 regional host.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 20, 2022 16:53:43 GMT -5
Things not going San Diego's way.
BYU at #28 unadjusted, #27 adjusted Pepperdine at #51 unadjusted
The good thing for San Diego is they can beat BYU before the Friday RPI comes out when the committee meets.
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