Fall 2022 Bracketology (11/14)

[trojansc]

Fall 2022 Bracketology (11/14/2022)

NCAA Selection Show: Sunday, November 27th at 7:30pm ET

Please avoid quoting entire original post.

(*) denotes a team that 'travels' -- meaning they are not within 400 miles of the subregional they are placed to be in.

Austin Regional

(1) Texas vs. Houston Christian
Florida State* vs. (8) BYU*

(4) Penn State vs. Colgate
Yale vs. (5) Marquette*

(3) Kentucky vs. East Tennessee State
Hawaii* vs. (6) Purdue

(2) Nebraska vs. Liberty*
Georgia* vs. (7) Kansas

San Diego Regional

(1) San Diego vs. New Hampshire*
Auburn* vs. (8) Washington State*

(4) Baylor vs. Wright State*
Colorado* vs. (5) UCF*

(3) Florida vs. Alabama State
Utah* vs. (6) Georgia Tech

(2) Stanford vs. Weber State*
LSU* vs. (7) Pepperdine

Columbus Regional

(1) Ohio State vs. St. Francis (PA)
James Madison vs. (8) Washington*

(4) Creighton vs. Bowling Green*
Northern Iowa vs. (5) Iowa State

(3) Minnesota vs. Loyola-Chicago
South Dakota vs. (6) Southern California*

(2) Pittsburgh vs. Howard
Towson vs. (7) UNLV*

Louisville Regional

(1) Louisville vs. Tennessee Tech
Michigan vs. (8) Western Kentucky

(4) Rice vs. Stephen F. Austin
TCU vs. (5) Houston

(3) Oregon vs. High Point*
Loyola Marymount* vs. (6) Arkansas*

(2) Wisconsin vs. Fairfield*
Tennessee* vs. (7) Miami-FL*

---

LAST 4 TEAMS IN:
1. TCU
2. Georgia
3. Michigan
4. Tennessee

FIRST 4 TEAMS OUT:
1. Mississippi State
2. Colorado State
3. Northwestern
4. UCLA

[trojansc]

Discussion/Notes

Conference Tournaments

This is the week where most conferences play their conference tournaments. There are a few exceptions - the Big East, Summit, and Mountain West play next week (Thanksgiving). MVC+MAC are a little strange, they actually start on Sunday and end before Thanksgiving.

Anyway, the most important conference to watch this week is definitely Conference USA. Rice is hoping to nab a top 16 spot and host the 1st+2nd rounds. I think they still may even have a chance with a loss to Western Kentucky, but, they really need to win to feel comfortable (which still wouldn't even be a guarantee). If you want real chaos, root for a team like UTEP to stun everyone and win the C-USA. This would mean 3 bids from that conference. 

Speaking of chaos, if Towson doesn't win their tournament, they have a shot at an at-large bid. Yale and James Madison do as well. I think Towson would get in (a win at Pitt is a big deal) but the real question marks are if Yale and/or James Madison do not win their conferences. Yale is #32 in RPI and their only significant win is #29 James Madison. #29 JMU however, doesn't have any Top 50 wins and won't unless Texas State gets there.

Northern Iowa could also potentially get an at-large, but I don't like their chances. Their only significant win is over Iowa State. Bowling Green could have an RPI that puts them in the discussion if they don't win their tournament either. South Dakota's best win is #81 Omaha, so despite a 26-2 record and #50 RPI, I don't see how they get any real consideration.

Keep an eye on the Mountain West Tournament next week as well, UNLV is getting in the tournament but they can easily lose and have a bid stolen, Colorado State is just barely on the wrong side of the bubble as it is.

Top 4 (Regional Hosts, #1 seeds):

Texas is really the only sure thing at this point. I like Ohio State's chances at this point as well. That tough schedule really pays off, 7 of their 8 opponents were 28 or better in RPI, the worst team they played in RPI was #44 Tennessee. It gets complicated for them though if they lose to Wisconsin. They have a H2H over Louisville but loss to Pittsburgh, which also makes it interesting! They also split with Nebraska.

I don't see how Louisville gets left out if they win the re-match with Pittsburgh. They only have 1 other match remaining which is at Notre Dame, so a loss would be a humongous upset and extremely unlikely. If Pittsburgh wins, I think chaos may ensue. Louisville has H2H wins over Stanford and San Diego, other regional host candidates, but would be 0-2 vs. Pittsburgh. 

The hardest decision this week is for the final spot, it could have been any of San Diego/Pittsburgh/Stanford and I went back and forth. Pitt doesn't have a ton of top 25 wins and neither does Stanford, and San Diego's worst loss being Louisville could give them an edge here.

If Wisconsin wins out, I don't see how they aren't the best candidate from the B1G which means they will probably get a spot. Nebraska has a tough path at this point - they can at best have splits with Ohio State/Wisconsin and a H2H loss vs. Stanford. 

Top 16 (1st+2nd round Hosts, #1-4 seeds):

I think the seeds are mostly straight-forward as this point for the top 12 unless some big upsets happen. The order can change of course and should get a little more clear, but, these are the teams where it gets murky:

Baylor (I actually think Baylor is fine unless they take 2 losses, so maybe it's the following teams vying for 3 total spots)

Creighton
Marquette
UCF
Rice
Houston
Penn State

Of those 6 teams, I think it's guaranteed at this point that one of Creighton/Marquette gets it. I think it's actually Creighton who is ahead if they split, given the H2H advantage and overall more Top 50 wins. Penn State may be a slight reach in RPI depending how they finish, but the Stanford and Oregon non-conf wins are really huge. UCF/Houston may be in trouble. Houston lost H2H to Rice and UCF/Houston are both light on wins, they may not be able to edge out Rice unless Rice loses again in the C-USA Tournament. Even then, the path for the AAC Champion does not look great. There is a good chance both Big East teams are better positioned than the AAC Champ. It will be interesting to see if Houston or UCF get the nod, there could be respect for not losing despite the weaker profile overall.

Outside chances: Georgia Tech needs to beat Pittsburgh, USC needs to win out, and Purdue probably needs to win out too)

#17-32 spots (#5-8 seeds):

Given how so much of this is unprecedented, I'm not going to worry too much here. We're going to see how a committee decides to sort these teams, but I will address my biggest question marks:

Pepperdine? Excellent wins, some bad losses, kind of a mess as of late. Their wins definitely blow some of the other teams away.

Towson? Can they grab a Top 32 seed? They have a win at Top 5 Pitt and some teams don't have more than 1-2 T50 wins or don't have any Top 25 wins at all. 

BYU/Florida State/Auburn don't have any Top 25 wins now as it is either. Auburn especially only has some bubble-level wins but could end up with a great RPI.

UNLV is really one of the toughest teams for me to place here. They could end up with a really good RPI, but only 1 Top 50 win, though it may be a Top 25 win as well (Kansas).

I'm also buying into Iowa State, and I'm unsure how the committee will view Arkansas who can end up with a *TON* of Top 50 wins.

At-Large Bids:

Michigan isn't done yet. Winning out guarantees a bid - but the 3 wins could still be enough.

There are some teams with some questionable resume's. LMU may be okay in RPI - but all they have to sell is two Pepperdine wins. We also already discussed JMU/Yale in the conference tournament section as well. Hawaii might end up with an RPI in the cut line but only one win over USC to sell as well (Texas State getting into the Top 50 could be important as well).

Georgia and TCU are in for now - but keep an eye, they don't have a lot of RPI breathing room either. They need to avoid upsets.

Northwestern is by no means out of it, they still have the wins to get in. Their problem is RPI and if they can actually win without a setter.

The real interesting series is Mississippi State at Tennessee. Mississippi State has the wins but is also in RPI trouble. Tennessee needs wins and doesn't have RPI breathing room either. If they split, we'll possibly see the SEC maxing out their bids if they take care of their other business. Tennessee also has a match against Kentucky which would be a huge win.

UCLA isn't done -- they win 3 of their last 4 and they are in the tournament to me.

Texas A&M needs to win its last 3 against LSU and Missouri(x2). This may not be good enough for RPI, but I see them still being on the discussion. They could have SIX top 50 wins + Top 25 wins over Kentucky and Western Kentucky. If there is a team that gets an RPI reach - I could see it being A&M. Though very unlikely now with Lednicky being out, you never know!

Colorado State has a huge match against UNLV this week - despite some upset, I think they could get back on the right side of the bubble if they win again.

[basil]

this bracket is not the energy i’m looking for

[hammer]

Looks like we now have San Diego and Columbus Regionals. Stanford in the San Diego Regional makes it possible for a lot of Stanford fans to attend.

Ok, and I see Nebraska is in the Texas Regional. Let the cage match begin.

[pavsec5row10]

San Diego regional seems a bit far-fetched at this point.

[mcmike]

amazing and certainly time-consuming effort here TYVM

[madden55]

Im living for this bracket

[brybast]

If this bracketology is projecting Nebraska at #8 overall, I would be shocked if the committee would put them that low. The committee kept them at #3 in the last reveal even AFTER they got swept by Minnesota. Every benefit of the doubt will be given to them.

[Kingsley]

Nov 14, 2022 19:15:19 GMT -5 trojansc said:

(1) Ohio State vs. St. Francis (PA)
James Madison vs. (8) Washington*

Sandbothe just barfed

[pavsec5row10]

Nov 14, 2022 19:27:05 GMT -5 brybast said:

If this bracketology is projecting Nebraska at #8 overall, I would be shocked if the committee would put them that low. The committee kept them at #3 in the last reveal even AFTER they got swept by Minnesota. Every benefit of the doubt will be given to them.

I hope they get swept by Minnesota next week, but they were swept by Wisconsin.

[volleyguy]

Stanford, Ohio State, Texas and Wisconsin in the Final Four with this bracket.

[medusa]

Hawaii gets the short end of the stick once again (Travel wise)

[volleyball303]

Would be a crime to send Nebraska to Texas again. I would love to see CU go to Baylor. Deluzio beating Baylor again to get into the sweet 16 to end her career would be awesome.

[HawaiiVB]

Nov 14, 2022 19:31:06 GMT -5 medusa said:

Hawaii gets the short end of the stick once again (Travel wise)

Always. Based on geography, which we cannot change, we become the fill in. I hate this rule.

[900sqftdad]

Awesome work - thank you!