bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 15, 2022 6:41:31 GMT -5
Updated % chance of being a subregional seed:
Louisville - 100% (100%) Nebraska - 100% (100%) Ohio State - 100% (100%) Pittsburgh - 100% (100%) San Diego - 100% (100%) Stanford - 100% (100%) Texas - 100% (100%) Wisconsin - 100% (100%)
Florida - 95% (95%) Kentucky - 95% (95%) Minnesota - 95% (95%) Oregon - 95% (75%)
Creighton - 90% (75%) Marquette - 90% (75%)
Baylor - 70% (90%) UCF - 50% (55%) Rice - 40% (55%) Houston - 25% (30%) Penn State - 25% Georgia Tech - 20% (40%)
Other - 10%
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Post by horns1 on Nov 15, 2022 7:47:33 GMT -5
I will be shocked if the committee awards a San Diego team who is only 2-1 against RPI Top 25 teams with a Top 4 national seed. San Diego gets to 4 if they beat BYU again (and BYU ends up T25). San Diego and BYU have big RPI upside So, then, why do you only have BYU as Top 32 (#8) in your current bracket? Doesn't sound like you believe BYU will end up better than RPI Top 29-32.
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Post by horns1 on Nov 15, 2022 8:04:38 GMT -5
I will be shocked if the committee awards a San Diego team who is only 2-1 against RPI Top 25 teams with a Top 4 national seed. But ... 2-1 against the RPI top 5. How many other teams are .667 against the top 5? I brought up something similar a few years ago regarding Texas' wins versus Top 5 or Top 10 wins (versus lower end Top 25 wins by other teams) and was told that is not a criteria the committee looks at; they count Top 25 wins, not Top 10 wins. Was told that's why the NittyGritty only had "Top 25" wins category, and not "Top 10" wins category. If the committee were giving extra bonus points to SD's two wins versus Top 5 teams they wouldn't have knocked them down from #3 in their first reveal to #5 in their second reveal. Obviously, there was other movement in the two reveals. October 2 reveal (SD had wins over #5 and #6; loss to #2) 1. Texas 2. Louisville 3. San Diego 4. Nebraska 5. Pittsburgh 6. Ohio State 7. Oregon 8. Stanford 9. Purdue 10. Minnesota October 30 reveal (SD had wins over #4 and #6; loss to #2) 1. Texas 2. Louisville 3. Nebraska 4. Pitt 5. San Diego 6. Ohio State 7. Wisconsin 8. Stanford 9. Minnesota 10. Oregon So, even though Pittsburgh moved up one spot, it was at the expense of San Diego (who beat Pitt). You'd have thought the committee would have given the edge to SD over Pittsburgh due to their head-to-head win on a neutral court; they did not.
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Post by saywho on Nov 15, 2022 9:40:39 GMT -5
But ... 2-1 against the RPI top 5. How many other teams are .667 against the top 5? I brought up something similar a few years ago regarding Texas' wins versus Top 5 or Top 10 wins (versus lower end Top 25 wins by other teams) and was told that is not a criteria the committee looks at; they count Top 25 wins, not Top 10 wins. Was told that's why the NittyGritty only had "Top 25" wins category, and not "Top 10" wins category. If the committee were giving extra bonus points to SD's two wins versus Top 5 teams they wouldn't have knocked them down from #3 in their first reveal to #5 in their second reveal. Obviously, there was other movement in the two reveals. October 2 reveal (SD had wins over #5 and #6; loss to #2) 1. Texas 2. Louisville 3. San Diego 4. Nebraska 5. Pittsburgh 6. Ohio State 7. Oregon 8. Stanford 9. Purdue 10. Minnesota October 30 reveal (SD had wins over #4 and #6; loss to #2) 1. Texas 2. Louisville 3. Nebraska 4. Pitt 5. San Diego 6. Ohio State 7. Wisconsin 8. Stanford 9. Minnesota 10. Oregon So, even though Pittsburgh moved up one spot, it was at the expense of San Diego (who beat Pitt). You'd have thought the committee would have given the edge to SD over Pittsburgh due to their head-to-head win on a neutral court; they did not. Agreed; however, there is a chance Pitt will lose to Louisville which may bring SD up from the Oct 30 release. And Nebraska will be coming down. So, I do think still a chance that San Diego may host.
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Post by hgc159 on Nov 15, 2022 9:58:10 GMT -5
I'm no expert, but the committee wants Nebraska to be in Omaha. I'd think they would send them somewhere other than the #1 seed.
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Post by FreeBall on Nov 15, 2022 10:22:15 GMT -5
I'm no expert, but the committee wants Nebraska to be in Omaha. I'd think they would send them somewhere other than the #1 seed. Why would the committee "want" Nebraska in Omaha?
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Post by horns1 on Nov 15, 2022 10:23:50 GMT -5
I brought up something similar a few years ago regarding Texas' wins versus Top 5 or Top 10 wins (versus lower end Top 25 wins by other teams) and was told that is not a criteria the committee looks at; they count Top 25 wins, not Top 10 wins. Was told that's why the NittyGritty only had "Top 25" wins category, and not "Top 10" wins category. If the committee were giving extra bonus points to SD's two wins versus Top 5 teams they wouldn't have knocked them down from #3 in their first reveal to #5 in their second reveal. Obviously, there was other movement in the two reveals. October 2 reveal (SD had wins over #5 and #6; loss to #2) 1. Texas 2. Louisville 3. San Diego 4. Nebraska 5. Pittsburgh 6. Ohio State 7. Oregon 8. Stanford 9. Purdue 10. Minnesota October 30 reveal (SD had wins over #4 and #6; loss to #2) 1. Texas 2. Louisville 3. Nebraska 4. Pitt 5. San Diego 6. Ohio State 7. Wisconsin 8. Stanford 9. Minnesota 10. Oregon So, even though Pittsburgh moved up one spot, it was at the expense of San Diego (who beat Pitt). You'd have thought the committee would have given the edge to SD over Pittsburgh due to their head-to-head win on a neutral court; they did not. Agreed; however, there is a chance Pitt will lose to Louisville which may bring SD up from the Oct 30 release. And Nebraska will be coming down. So, I do think still a chance that San Diego may host. Anything is possible. But, Pitt is a team that San Diego beat. Pitt losing to Louisville would hurt the Panthers' RPI (probably not much) and would in turn also hurt SD's RPI, not help it. Might be in SD's best interest for Pitt to beat Louisville.
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Post by boxcariii on Nov 15, 2022 10:25:11 GMT -5
I'm no expert, but the committee wants Nebraska to be in Omaha. I'd think they would send them somewhere other than the #1 seed. So, let's just assume these are the regional hosts for the sake of your point. 1) Don't go to Texas because Texas 2) San Diego - Travel would prevent that from happening. 3) A rematch with Ohio State will be booed/complained about. And Ohio State was the better team in Columbus once already. Can't imagine 'Sker(d) fans want that one. 4) A rematch with Louisville, eh, not worth listing the reasons you don't want this one either. If the Skers wanted an easy path to Omaha, they shouldn't have lost to Ohio State.
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Post by hornshouse23 on Nov 15, 2022 10:31:48 GMT -5
I'm no expert, but the committee wants Nebraska to be in Omaha. I'd think they would send them somewhere other than the #1 seed. Omaha will sell out with or without Nebraska. The committee knows that.
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Post by hornshouse23 on Nov 15, 2022 10:33:49 GMT -5
Agreed; however, there is a chance Pitt will lose to Louisville which may bring SD up from the Oct 30 release. And Nebraska will be coming down. So, I do think still a chance that San Diego may host. Anything is possible. But, Pitt is a team that San Diego beat. Pitt losing to Louisville would hurt the Panthers' RPI (probably not much) and would in turn also hurt SD's RPI, not help it. Might be in SD's best interest for Pitt to beat Louisville. USD’s only chance is Winning out, a Pitt win, and a three way collapse atop the B1G final clusterf*ck this weekend.
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Post by avid 2.0 on Nov 15, 2022 10:34:20 GMT -5
do you know who else would be fun to have in omaha
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Post by hornshouse23 on Nov 15, 2022 10:35:27 GMT -5
do you know who else would be fun to have in omaha In the bleachers with everybody else.
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Post by madden55 on Nov 15, 2022 10:38:22 GMT -5
I'm no expert, but the committee wants Nebraska to be in Omaha. I'd think they would send them somewhere other than the #1 seed. So, let's just assume these are the regional hosts for the sake of your point. 1) Don't go to Texas because Texas 2) San Diego - Travel would prevent that from happening. 3) A rematch with Ohio State will be booed/complained about. And Ohio State was the better team in Columbus once already. Can't imagine 'Sker(d) fans want that one. 4) A rematch with Louisville, eh, not worth listing the reasons you don't want this one either. If the Skers wanted an easy path to Omaha, they shouldn't have lost to Ohio State. rematch with Louisville ? Also travel doesn’t matter for the top 16 seeds.
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Post by madden55 on Nov 15, 2022 10:41:30 GMT -5
do you know who else would be fun to have in omaha how they gonna get there without Sis to set 96 balls tho
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Post by boxcariii on Nov 15, 2022 10:42:34 GMT -5
So, let's just assume these are the regional hosts for the sake of your point. 1) Don't go to Texas because Texas 2) San Diego - Travel would prevent that from happening. 3) A rematch with Ohio State will be booed/complained about. And Ohio State was the better team in Columbus once already. Can't imagine 'Sker(d) fans want that one. 4) A rematch with Louisville, eh, not worth listing the reasons you don't want this one either. If the Skers wanted an easy path to Omaha, they shouldn't have lost to Ohio State. rematch with Louisville ? Also travel doesn’t matter for the top 16 seeds. I swore Skers played them, must be my faulty memory. It looks like Kentucky played Nebraska and Louisville b2b and I got that all jumbled up. Strike the rematch portion, replace it was something about not wanting to hurt the feelings of DBK or something.
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