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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2022 1:00:40 GMT -5
I’m manifesting a Top 4 seed for USD, but in all actuality preparing myself for the reality that they will be “upsetting” the 3 or 4 seed on that team's home court next month.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 23, 2022 1:02:47 GMT -5
San Diego's RPI situation is unfortunate because they scheduled some good teams with not so great W/L records.
Utah, UCLA, and Texas A&M are not bad teams but USD isn't really getting the value they should from those wins because of those team's W/L records. They could still end up with bonus points from Utah - not 100% sure on UCLA which would semi-offset that.
San Diego would have been better off scheduling Yale (23-2) who is ranked better in RPI and obviously W/L record than Utah, UCLA, and Texas A&M. They'd also have been way better off scheduling High Point (23-9) who is #56, compared to #53 Utah (15-14) and #55 UCLA (16-12).
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Post by tablealgebra on Nov 23, 2022 1:07:01 GMT -5
So San Diego has only one loss all season, to Louisville, IN LOUSIVILLE. There is just no way that they can be overlooked as a top 4 seed, is there? I mean, what else are they supposed to do in order to earn one? This argument is a bit reductive, looking at very few data points. First of all, the "they did everything they needed to do to get a 1 seed" is not a valid argument in isolation. Seeding is a comparative exercise; the other candidates for top seeds all have very strong resumes. I believe in the top 4 resumes getting the 1 seeds; right now, that doesn't seem to be USD. So, how to change this? The simple answer is, schedule tougher (think an OSU-type nonconference schedule) or lose fewer matches. For all the luster of going 2-1 vs the Top 10 (though that will be 1-1 vs the Top 10 if OSU doesn't pull out of their funk), the Toreros have very few other good wins, other than tonight at BYU. The other answer is, it depends on the other teams with tougher schedules. If Nebraska and Wisconsin both lose this week, San Diego still has a good opportunity. Actually, it would be ironic if the head-to-head vs Pitt actually paid off in this case, since you might argue that Pitt would be the other potential 1 seed. But who knows what the committee is actually thinking? |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 23, 2022 1:08:38 GMT -5
So San Diego has only one loss all season, to Louisville, IN LOUSIVILLE. There is just no way that they can be overlooked as a top 4 seed, is there? I mean, what else are they supposed to do in order to earn one? This argument is a bit reductive, looking at very few data points. First of all, the "they did everything they needed to do to get a 1 seed" is not a valid argument in isolation. Seeding is a comparative exercise; the other candidates for top seeds all have very strong resumes. I believe in the top 4 resumes getting the 1 seeds; right now, that doesn't seem to be USD. So, how to change this? The simple answer is, schedule tougher (think an OSU-type nonconference schedule) or lose fewer matches. For all the luster of going 2-1 vs the Top 10 (though that will be 1-1 vs the Top 10 if OSU doesn't pull out of their funk), the Toreros have very few other good wins, other than tonight at BYU. The other answer is, it depends on the other teams with tougher schedules. If Nebraska and Wisconsin both lose this week, San Diego still has a good opportunity. Actually, it would be ironic if the head-to-head vs Pitt actually paid off in this case, since you might argue that Pitt would be the other potential 1 seed. But who knows what the committee is actually thinking? Ohio State is not falling from Top 10 status, unless you weren't talking about RPI. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 23, 2022 1:10:42 GMT -5
San Diego's RPI situation is unfortunate because they scheduled some good teams with not so great W/L records. Utah, UCLA, and Texas A&M are not bad teams but USD isn't really getting the value they should from those wins because of those team's W/L records. They could still end up with bonus points from Utah - not 100% sure on UCLA which would semi-offset that. San Diego would have been better off scheduling Yale (23-2) who is ranked better in RPI and obviously W/L record than Utah, UCLA, and Texas A&M. They'd also have been way better off scheduling High Point (23-9) who is #56, compared to #53 Utah (15-14) and #55 UCLA (16-12). Well the problem for really good teams trying to maximize RPI is that a lot of the really good for RPI teams are dodging playing actually good teams, and aren't punished for it. Look at that quote from Dagenais you shared on UCF's scheduling philosophy, WKU's years-long commitment to dodging actual competition, how South Dakota schedules, what the top ASUN/Sun Belt (JMU!)/Ivy teams in at-large RPI range did. They can kind of just play each other and pump RPIs without actually playing any at-large caliber, much less seed caliber teams, and it's a problem for a team trying to fill out a schedule. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 23, 2022 1:12:21 GMT -5
So San Diego has only one loss all season, to Louisville, IN LOUSIVILLE. There is just no way that they can be overlooked as a top 4 seed, is there? I mean, what else are they supposed to do in order to earn one? This argument is a bit reductive, looking at very few data points. First of all, the "they did everything they needed to do to get a 1 seed" is not a valid argument in isolation. Seeding is a comparative exercise; the other candidates for top seeds all have very strong resumes. I believe in the top 4 resumes getting the 1 seeds; right now, that doesn't seem to be USD. So, how to change this? The simple answer is, schedule tougher (think an OSU-type nonconference schedule) or lose fewer matches. For all the luster of going 2-1 vs the Top 10 (though that will be 1-1 vs the Top 10 if OSU doesn't pull out of their funk), the Toreros have very few other good wins, other than tonight at BYU. The other answer is, it depends on the other teams with tougher schedules. If Nebraska and Wisconsin both lose this week, San Diego still has a good opportunity. Actually, it would be ironic if the head-to-head vs Pitt actually paid off in this case, since you might argue that Pitt would be the other potential 1 seed. But who knows what the committee is actually thinking? Ohio State went 1-4 against the pre-conference slate but was still a favorite for a Top 4 seed until this weekend's slip-ups. San Diego would have been a double-digit seed going 1-4 against that slate. |
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Post by InfoBot on Nov 23, 2022 1:13:06 GMT -5
San Diego's RPI situation is unfortunate because they scheduled some good teams with not so great W/L records. Utah, UCLA, and Texas A&M are not bad teams but USD isn't really getting the value they should from those wins because of those team's W/L records. They could still end up with bonus points from Utah - not 100% sure on UCLA which would semi-offset that. San Diego would have been better off scheduling Yale (23-2) who is ranked better in RPI and obviously W/L record than Utah, UCLA, and Texas A&M. They'd also have been way better off scheduling High Point (23-9) who is #56, compared to #53 Utah (15-14) and #55 UCLA (16-12). Also unfortunate for them that some of Wisconsin's (the team I think is most likely to take the seed from them) scheduling turned out better than expected in a few spots. Not sure anybody picked TCU to be #41 RPI preseason. Marquette at #12 is higher than expected, even if marginally to some. Also they played High Point. |
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Post by tablealgebra on Nov 23, 2022 1:26:52 GMT -5
This argument is a bit reductive, looking at very few data points. First of all, the "they did everything they needed to do to get a 1 seed" is not a valid argument in isolation. Seeding is a comparative exercise; the other candidates for top seeds all have very strong resumes. I believe in the top 4 resumes getting the 1 seeds; right now, that doesn't seem to be USD. So, how to change this? The simple answer is, schedule tougher (think an OSU-type nonconference schedule) or lose fewer matches. For all the luster of going 2-1 vs the Top 10 (though that will be 1-1 vs the Top 10 if OSU doesn't pull out of their funk), the Toreros have very few other good wins, other than tonight at BYU. The other answer is, it depends on the other teams with tougher schedules. If Nebraska and Wisconsin both lose this week, San Diego still has a good opportunity. Actually, it would be ironic if the head-to-head vs Pitt actually paid off in this case, since you might argue that Pitt would be the other potential 1 seed. But who knows what the committee is actually thinking? Ohio State is not falling from Top 10 status, unless you weren't talking about RPI. Good point. I was thinking ranking. |
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Post by tablealgebra on Nov 23, 2022 1:28:17 GMT -5
This argument is a bit reductive, looking at very few data points. First of all, the "they did everything they needed to do to get a 1 seed" is not a valid argument in isolation. Seeding is a comparative exercise; the other candidates for top seeds all have very strong resumes. I believe in the top 4 resumes getting the 1 seeds; right now, that doesn't seem to be USD. So, how to change this? The simple answer is, schedule tougher (think an OSU-type nonconference schedule) or lose fewer matches. For all the luster of going 2-1 vs the Top 10 (though that will be 1-1 vs the Top 10 if OSU doesn't pull out of their funk), the Toreros have very few other good wins, other than tonight at BYU. The other answer is, it depends on the other teams with tougher schedules. If Nebraska and Wisconsin both lose this week, San Diego still has a good opportunity. Actually, it would be ironic if the head-to-head vs Pitt actually paid off in this case, since you might argue that Pitt would be the other potential 1 seed. But who knows what the committee is actually thinking? Ohio State went 1-4 against the pre-conference slate but was still a favorite for a Top 4 seed until this weekend's slip-ups. San Diego would have been a double-digit seed going 1-4 against that slate. Because if you had compared their conference schedule performances (again, before last weekend), OSU's was much better. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 23, 2022 1:43:29 GMT -5
Let's look at the head-to-head matchup among the following teams:
Texas (3-0) (1 loss to a lesser team)
Louisville (3-2) (no losses to lesser teams)
San Diego (2-1) (no losses to lesser teams)
Pittsburgh (2-2) (1 loss to a lesser team)
Stanford (1-2) (2 losses to lesser teams)
Wisconsin (1-0) (3 losses to lesser teams) (yet to play Ohio State and Nebraska)
Nebraska (1-3) (no losses to lesser teams) (yet to play Wisconsin)
Ohio State (2-5) (2 losses to lesser teams) (yet to play Wisconsin)
I would rank these in the order I have them listed here. If Wisconsin wins out and goes 3-0 against the teams on this list, I would move them up the list to #4.
Ohio State seems clearly the weakest of these teams, and yet a bunch of the other teams are propped up by wins against Ohio State. Texas for instance, has two wins against Ohio State and one win against Stanford. Nebraska's only win against one of these top teams is Ohio State. If you took Ohio State off this list, San Diego would still be 1-1, but Texas would only be 1-0, Nebraska would be 0-0, etc.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 23, 2022 3:14:55 GMT -5
Another way to tall this would be wins against other teams in this list versus losses against anyone.
Texas (3-1)
Louisville (3-2)
San Diego (2-1)
Pittsburgh (2-3)
Stanford (1-4)
Wisconsin (1-3) (yet to play Ohio State and Nebraska)
Nebraska (1-3) (yet to play Wisconsin)
Ohio State (2-7) (yet to play Wisconsin)
Again we see Texas and Louisville at the top with three wins and one or two losses, and San Diego with 2 wins and only 1 loss.
Those are the only teams with more wins inside of these top eight than their total season losses.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2022 9:43:36 GMT -5
If the committee puts any thoughts into attendance or excitement this could also be a negative for USD. They rarely have more than 1000 people in Jenny Craig. It shouldn’t necessarily be part of the criteria and officially I don’t think it is, but the NCAA is also a business so…
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Post by juancook on Nov 23, 2022 10:33:38 GMT -5
I watched San Diego for the first time this season last night. I had to see what the hype was all about. I admit, they are a fantastic team. They've really done well bringing in former B1G players with high level playing experience from the transfer portal, and translating that into a winning combination. I wonder though how this San Diego team would do in the B1G Ten over the course of a season? Where would they sit amongst the likes of Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State, OSU, Minnesota, etc.? For me, this is the equivalent of how the current USC football team would do in the SEC or how the 2017 UCF football team would have done in the SEC. The reality is that we will never know. The true test will come over the next month as they face some of the marquee teams that we all know and talk about. Personally, I think San Diego would easily be in the top 4 teams of the B1G Ten over the course of a season. I don't think they would win the league though. Come at me if you want with that opinion, but it's my opinion  I don't think they are going to get one of the Top 4 seeds for the tournament though - especially if Wisconsin or Nebraska wins out the season and wins the B1G Ten. That is the reality folks. Whether you like it or not, San Diego should come out and play solidly, regardless of their ranking. I do think it's a shame that their home attendance record would hinder their chances at a Top 4 seed. I think it's a shame that fans don't show up at all to watch them play. Period! As a Nebraska and Stanford fan, I would love to see San Diego match up against either teams. That is a battle I would like to see. BYU did well last night, but a match for San Diego against a next level team at this point in the season (yes, I know they beat Pitt and OSU at the beginning of the season) will be the true measuring stick for how disciplined and good this team is. San Diego is my dark horse to win the National Championship. P.S. - I didn't even mention my disdain for the transfer portal, how it's shaped the landscape in volleyball in particular, and how teams like San Diego and Texas have built a "super team" compared to others. I personally wish the transfer portal would cease to exist! Ha! |
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Post by vbkahuna on Nov 23, 2022 11:38:47 GMT -5
To answer the question of how well San Diego would do if they were in the B1G, start first with the question of how well they would have done this year without the two transfers from the B1G (neither of which was considered the best at their position when they were in the B1G). Yes, San Diego is a very good team (Top 10), but no it isn't a Top 4 team. And that's likely to be confirmed when they run into one of the B1G teams in the playoffs.
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Post by chatchu-off moksri on Nov 23, 2022 12:08:03 GMT -5
I hope San Diego beats a B1G team on their way to the Elite 8 just to shut the haters up
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