Final 4 - Texas vs San Diego

[chatchu-off moksri]

Rooting for San Diego!

[Sbilo]

San Diego in 5 sets.

I didn’t realise San Diego was legit up until I saw them beat a very good Stanford team playing in front of their home court.

They are big, physical and consistent.

Biggest Xfactor for San Diego in this match is Edwards. If she tears it up again, San Diego will be tough to stop as Lukes and Frohling are so consistent. Lukes is topnotch passer and hitter - just a whip of an arm. So beautiful to watch.

San Diego has a very good tandem in the middle, something that Stanford could not stop.

However, biggest concern would be passing. Stanford went on big serving runs last night and San Diego became very predictable.

This will be a fun match. I can’t wait.

[Longhorn20]

For any of you VolleyMetrics people, what have Stanford, San Diego, and Texas opponent passing numbers been so far this tournament? And can someone post passing numbers of SD’s and Texas’s passers in the tournament?

I just think serve/pass is going to be especially crucial in this matchup since there’s such a big setter discrepancy.

[Deleted]

Here’s how they match up position by position in my opinion
Setter San Diego
Middles Texas
Pins San Diego (yes as a trio San Diego’s are better because all 3 of them are *elite* and they can go to any of them OOS sometbing that you cant really say about all 3 of Texas but the Texas f
Pins are fantastic too obiv)
Libero and DS Texas.
Should be a good one 🤩🤩

[rcryland]

Underestimate SKT at your peril. She's been rock-steady all season. Some troubles yesterday but still pulled it out in 4 (which is more than you can say for any of the other 3 hosts). And she's a pretty effective blocker for 6' setter.

Texas bench is also a distinct advantage.

And anybody who thinks Eggleston, Fleck and Co. doesn't "want it" as much as anyone else is smoking some weak %*$#.

[Disc808]

Texas outsides will have major advantage over Blossom. Will be interesting to see how San Diego gets through those rotations

[slxpress]

Dec 11, 2022 19:59:12 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

Here’s how they match up position by position in my opinion
Setter San Diego
Middles Texas
Pins San Diego (yes as a trio San Diego’s are better because all 3 of them are *elite* and they can go to any of them OOS sometbing that you cant really say about all 3 of Texas but the Texas f
Pins are fantastic too obiv)
Libero and DS Texas.
Should be a good one 🤩🤩

Left pins advantage Texas
Right pin slight advantage San Diego, but it's only 3 rotations. Then you have Gabby Blossom on the front row who is no threat whatsoever as an attacker. 

But both of these semifinals are powerhouses going after each other. San Diego is no fluke. They deserve to be here. Very impressive squad and roster.  

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2022 20:32:10 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Dec 11, 2022 19:59:12 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

Here’s how they match up position by position in my opinion
Setter San Diego
Middles Texas
Pins San Diego (yes as a trio San Diego’s are better because all 3 of them are *elite* and they can go to any of them OOS sometbing that you cant really say about all 3 of Texas but the Texas f
Pins are fantastic too obiv)
Libero and DS Texas.
Should be a good one 🤩🤩

Left pins advantage Texas
Right pin slight advantage San Diego, but it's only 3 rotations. Then you have Gabby Blossom on the front row who is no threat whatsoever as an attacker. 

But both of these semifinals are powerhouses going after each other. San Diego is no fluke. They deserve to be here. Very impressive squad and roster.  

it’s not just a slight right pin advantage. Molly has been great but Frohling is elite. She also plays like 4 rotations now so she’s a D ball threat as well. No shade to Phillips but I think the advantage is well In San Diego’s favor at opp bc Frohling can be a D ball threat and is good OOS

[trojansc]

Dec 11, 2022 20:32:10 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Dec 11, 2022 19:59:12 GMT -5 @madden55 said:

Here’s how they match up position by position in my opinion
Setter San Diego
Middles Texas
Pins San Diego (yes as a trio San Diego’s are better because all 3 of them are *elite* and they can go to any of them OOS sometbing that you cant really say about all 3 of Texas but the Texas f
Pins are fantastic too obiv)
Libero and DS Texas.
Should be a good one 🤩🤩

Left pins advantage Texas
Right pin slight advantage San Diego, but it's only 3 rotations. Then you have Gabby Blossom on the front row who is no threat whatsoever as an attacker. 

But both of these semifinals are powerhouses going after each other. San Diego is no fluke. They deserve to be here. Very impressive squad and roster.  

They'll sometimes keep Frohling in, at least for part of the backrow rotation even on serve receive. She got set some backrow sets last night. Taking her out loses another offensive option, but (hopefully) shores up ball control. I imagine Petrie will mix up how much she leaves Frohling in the back. Since USD's serve receive can be trouble, it may just depend on if USD can quickly side out in those rotations.

Having her as an option as transition in the back is important given how out of system USD can end up.

[Deleted]

Dec 11, 2022 20:38:54 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Dec 11, 2022 20:32:10 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Left pins advantage Texas
Right pin slight advantage San Diego, but it's only 3 rotations. Then you have Gabby Blossom on the front row who is no threat whatsoever as an attacker. 

But both of these semifinals are powerhouses going after each other. San Diego is no fluke. They deserve to be here. Very impressive squad and roster.  

They'll sometimes keep Frohling in, at least for part of the backrow rotation even on serve receive. She got set some backrow sets last night. Taking her out loses another offensive option, but (hopefully) shores up ball control. I imagine Petrie will mix up how much she leaves Frohling in the back. Since USD's serve receive can be trouble, it may just depend on if USD can quickly side out in those rotations.

Having her as an option as transition in the back is important given how out of system USD can end up.

I’ve actually been impressed with Frohlings floor defense it’s really good. They just need a passer which is why bennet has to play

[slxpress]

Dec 11, 2022 20:21:52 GMT -5 rcryland said:

Underestimate SKT at your peril. She's been rock-steady all season. Some troubles yesterday but still pulled it out in 4 (which is more than you can say for any of the other 3 hosts). And she's a pretty effective blocker for 6' setter.

Texas bench is also a distinct advantage.

And anybody who thinks Eggleston, Fleck and Co. doesn't "want it" as much as anyone else is smoking some weak %*$#.

She will also hit over in 2, which Blossom is not effective at. Stanford didn't even bother challenging her on passes close to the net. 

SKT's issue is her effectiveness goes waaaaaaay down when Texas is out of system, whereas Blossom is a magician with out of system sets. She'll put it to her hitters on a dime with frequency. Out of system I often feel like Texas would almost be better off letting Halter bump set to the left pin than have SKT take a stab at it.
____________________

I don't even know why the bench would be a factor unless there's an injury, which I hope there isn't. Bergmark has come in for Caffey and been effective, Kahahawai has a couple of blocks, and Parra and Ewert will go to the service line every now and then, but normally the set is already all but wrapped up at 23 when Elliott does those moves (other than Bergmark). I just think it's a non factor for this one. The big advantage in bench strength is in the practice gym, but that's over and done with once both teams take the floor, and it's difficult to quantify anyway.

I'm curious who has the better serve and serve receive game - along with everyone else - and who has the more effective block. Statistically San Diego has been better over the course of the season at 2.8 versus 2.5, but Texas has come on strong over the last few weeks of the season and then turned it up even higher with the start of the tournament. 4 blocks/set against OSU was extremely impressive, and a big reason for the 3-1 win. 

I love this San Diego team. I have all season long. They have major league pieces. Blossom is the engine that makes them run, but they match up well with Frohling, Edwards, Lukes and Blackwell. Stoner is a terrific 2nd MB, too. Benbow is an amazing libero. They're legitimate. They have 5 players with over 20 service aces on the season. 3 players with more than 30. They hit well. They block well. They defend well. They'd be outstanding without the best setter in the country, but they have that, too. 

The main reason I like Texas is because Texas is my team, but they'll have to bring their A game. Maybe not all 5 sets, but for at least 3 of the 5. We'll see what happens.

[Volleyfan024]

Dec 11, 2022 16:43:42 GMT -5 hoosierman said:

This is tough. I think Texas pulls through this match.

However, you know who won't win? Whichever team "wants it more." Can someone ban this saying?

Seriously though... can we report anyone who says that?
I still remember when I was an assistant coach and it was late in a set in a match at nationals and we had set point and the other team called timeout. Our head coach quickly started telling the team "we just have to want it more than them". I quickly interrupted and talked about what rotation they were in and tendencies during that rotation from my charting. After the timeout I looked at her and told her that wanting it more will not win matches at a high level. We never coached together again after that tournament. 

[rcryland]

Dec 11, 2022 20:51:47 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Dec 11, 2022 20:21:52 GMT -5 rcryland said:

Underestimate SKT at your peril. She's been rock-steady all season. Some troubles yesterday but still pulled it out in 4 (which is more than you can say for any of the other 3 hosts). And she's a pretty effective blocker for 6' setter.

Texas bench is also a distinct advantage.

And anybody who thinks Eggleston, Fleck and Co. doesn't "want it" as much as anyone else is smoking some weak %*$#.

She will also hit over in 2, which Blossom is not effective at. Stanford didn't even bother challenging her on passes close to the net. 

SKT's issue is her effectiveness goes waaaaaaay down when Texas is out of system, whereas Blossom is a magician with out of system sets. She'll put it to her hitters on a dime with frequency. Out of system I often feel like Texas would almost be better off letting Halter bump set to the left pin than have SKT take a stab at it.
____________________

I don't even know why the bench would be a factor unless there's an injury, which I hope there isn't. Bergmark has come in for Caffey and been effective, Kahahawai has a couple of blocks, and Parra and Ewert will go to the service line every now and then, but normally the set is already all but wrapped up at 23 when Elliott does those moves (other than Bergmark). I just think it's a non factor for this one. The big advantage in bench strength is in the practice gym, but that's over and done with once both teams take the floor, and it's difficult to quantify anyway.

I dunno about "waaaay down" OOS?  Might be some "recent" bias there. I've seen her use the RS, middle and backrow many times OOS, quite effectively.  In a game of inches, sure you could say Blossom is a bit more likely to do that, but we're not miles apart here.  Also, given that San Diego was playing a  Stanford team that relied much more heavily on their RS than OHs, the disadvantage Blossom presents at the net was muted somewhat. That will not be the case against TX. 

The bench can be meaningful in a game of this level, in that if someone is having a rough patch JE can give them a break for a few points fort a mental reset, without incurring significant disadvantage. Also, situational subs - like Kahahawai or Parra - can create a serious advantage on a given play. It may not matter, but it certainly can. 

[slxpress]

Dec 11, 2022 21:14:27 GMT -5 rcryland said:

Dec 11, 2022 20:51:47 GMT -5 slxpress said:

She will also hit over in 2, which Blossom is not effective at. Stanford didn't even bother challenging her on passes close to the net. 

SKT's issue is her effectiveness goes waaaaaaay down when Texas is out of system, whereas Blossom is a magician with out of system sets. She'll put it to her hitters on a dime with frequency. Out of system I often feel like Texas would almost be better off letting Halter bump set to the left pin than have SKT take a stab at it.
____________________

I don't even know why the bench would be a factor unless there's an injury, which I hope there isn't. Bergmark has come in for Caffey and been effective, Kahahawai has a couple of blocks, and Parra and Ewert will go to the service line every now and then, but normally the set is already all but wrapped up at 23 when Elliott does those moves (other than Bergmark). I just think it's a non factor for this one. The big advantage in bench strength is in the practice gym, but that's over and done with once both teams take the floor, and it's difficult to quantify anyway.

I dunno about "waaaay down" OOS?  Might be some "recent" bias there. I've seen her use the RS, middle and backrow many times OOS, quite effectively.  In a game of inches, sure you could say Blossom is a bit more likely to do that, but we're not miles apart here.  Also, given that San Diego was playing a  Stanford team that relied much more heavily on their RS than OHs, the disadvantage Blossom presents at the net was muted somewhat. That will not be the case against TX. 

The bench can be meaningful in a game of this level, in that if someone is having a rough patch JE can give them a break for a few points fort a mental reset, without incurring significant disadvantage. Also, situational subs - like Kahahawai or Parra - can create a serious advantage on a given play. It may not matter, but it certainly can. 

What recency bias would I have? I've said this all year long about SKT. In system she's terrific. Out of system she isn't nearly as effective. It's why it's so important for UT's passing to remain at a high level. Why do you think Texas tips so much? Sure, some of it is because of trying to vary swings, but a lot of it is because of the sets they're getting, and not wanting to commit a hitting error - whether into the block, the net, or out of bounds. 

Compare that to San Diego, who almost never tips. They'll hit roll shots and half swings to get the ball into the campfire, but rarely do San Diego pins tip. 

I'd actually say out of system we ARE miles apart. In system I don't think there's that much of a difference, frankly. Blossom is better at disguising where she's going with the ball, but SKT is not bad at it. SKT is a wonderful setter. I'm glad we have her. If Texas takes advantage of Blossom being in the front row, like Kentucky did with Gabriel in the national championship, I'll be even more glad (although Gabriel was 5'6 to Blossom's 5'9). But acting like SKT and Blossom are nearly equivalents to one another in out of system sets is farcical. 

If Texas is having to go to their bench for anyone other than subbing in Bergmark/Caffey for one another, it means Texas is either in trouble, or they've practically put the set out of reach. Because of this I'm saying the likelihood that the strength of the bench will play a factor in the outcome of the match approaches zero percent. 

Halter and Akana subbing in, or Skinner playing 3.5 rotations to serve, CAN make a difference, but that's not the bench strength you're referring to, and San Diego has some good subs, too, along those lines, with Allen, Bennett, and Pries. 

[nellynel]

Dec 11, 2022 21:14:27 GMT -5 rcryland said:

Dec 11, 2022 20:51:47 GMT -5 slxpress said:

She will also hit over in 2, which Blossom is not effective at. Stanford didn't even bother challenging her on passes close to the net. 

SKT's issue is her effectiveness goes waaaaaaay down when Texas is out of system, whereas Blossom is a magician with out of system sets. She'll put it to her hitters on a dime with frequency. Out of system I often feel like Texas would almost be better off letting Halter bump set to the left pin than have SKT take a stab at it.
____________________

I don't even know why the bench would be a factor unless there's an injury, which I hope there isn't. Bergmark has come in for Caffey and been effective, Kahahawai has a couple of blocks, and Parra and Ewert will go to the service line every now and then, but normally the set is already all but wrapped up at 23 when Elliott does those moves (other than Bergmark). I just think it's a non factor for this one. The big advantage in bench strength is in the practice gym, but that's over and done with once both teams take the floor, and it's difficult to quantify anyway.

I dunno about "waaaay down" OOS?  Might be some "recent" bias there. I've seen her use the RS, middle and backrow many times OOS, quite effectively.  In a game of inches, sure you could say Blossom is a bit more likely to do that, but we're not miles apart here.  Also, given that San Diego was playing a  Stanford team that relied much more heavily on their RS than OHs, the disadvantage Blossom presents at the net was muted somewhat. That will not be the case against TX. 

The bench can be meaningful in a game of this level, in that if someone is having a rough patch JE can give them a break for a few points fort a mental reset, without incurring significant disadvantage. Also, situational subs - like Kahahawai or Parra - can create a serious advantage on a given play. It may not matter, but it certainly can. 

I agree before Saturday, SKT had been pretty good OOS and in transition lately

. Fleck was lights out passing but too many times we did not capitalize off a perfect pass. Some of it was pins not terminating but sometimes it was just the set was just off enough to effect Madi and Molly.

In set 2 I would have given Fleck 5 perfect passes out 7, yet Ohio St scored on all 5 perfect passes. 1 block, two errors and 2 in transition. That cannot happen if Texas wants to be successful.

In set 3 Ohio St scored off 2 of her 3 perfect passes.