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Post by slxpress on Dec 12, 2022 8:11:09 GMT -5
What recency bias would I have? I've said this all year long about SKT. In system she's terrific. Out of system she isn't nearly as effective. It's why it's so important for UT's passing to remain at a high level. Why do you think Texas tips so much? Sure, some of it is because of trying to vary swings, but a lot of it is because of the sets they're getting, and not wanting to commit a hitting error - whether into the block, the net, or out of bounds. Compare that to San Diego, who almost never tips. They'll hit roll shots and half swings to get the ball into the campfire, but rarely do San Diego pins tip. I'd actually say out of system we ARE miles apart. In system I don't think there's that much of a difference, frankly. Blossom is better at disguising where she's going with the ball, but SKT is not bad at it. SKT is a wonderful setter. I'm glad we have her. If Texas takes advantage of Blossom being in the front row, like Kentucky did with Gabriel in the national championship, I'll be even more glad (although Gabriel was 5'6 to Blossom's 5'9). But acting like SKT and Blossom are nearly equivalents to one another in out of system sets is farcical. We watching the same Texas team? Season Hitting % / K/S: TEXASEggleston .300 / 4.23 Skinner .299 / 3.62 O'Neal .448 / 2.23 Caffey+Bergmark .371 / 1.37 Phillips .395 / 2.20 TEAM .339 / 14.37 ^Not bad for a bunch of Tippy McTippersons.
USDLukes .269 / 3.72 Edwards .275 / 3.37 Blackwell .363 / 1.97 Stoner .299 / 1.47 Frohling .325 / 3.08 TEAM .292 / 13.79 ^vs. an arguably inferior schedule; maybe they should tip more?So if SKT & Blossom are really "miles apart" when it comes to OOS setting, given the above #s that can only mean that USD is running OOS a LOT more than Texas. Which is....good for us? Yes, Blossom finds her RS (who plays backrow some) more often than SKT. Frohling is very good - arguably their best hitter, all things considered. That tells me Blossom is *looking* for her more often, because she *needs* to. I have no idea if we're watching the same teams or not. It's not like I'm going to go through any matches and count Texas tips. I didn't say they didn't work. Plenty of tips are either hitting the floor, or hitting hands (on purpose) and then going out of bounds. But I am going to say when I watch the matches that Texas plays (all of them, many of them multiple times) versus the matches I watch involving San Diego (only the big ones, but I did watch the 5 setter versus Pepperdine, and the 3-1 wins over Loyola Marymount and BYU, plus the subregional and the two regionals in Palo Alto) I see Texas tip the ball a WHOLE lot more. I also see SKT play consistently very well in system, but out of system she has to be bailed out a lot more than Blossom. In my opinion. I'll also say San Diego isn't exactly ripping every shot. They hit plenty of roll shots or take something off rather than hit the ball full speed. But they rarely tip. In my opinion that's because Blossom is giving them a better set. But you can feel differently about it if you want. I'm getting you riled up, which is not my intention. We don't have to see eye to eye. I certainly think Texas has the better team overall. I just don't think they overwhelmingly have the better team to where they can coast to a victory. And the key reason is that Blossom is better out of system than SKT. Edit - I'll also point out that while San Diego deservedly won 3-2 over Stanford, those two Stanford wins with 25-19 scores were not that close. They even had a nice lead in the 5th, but couldn't get a side out on a couple of key San Diego runs from the service line, including the one that closed it out with 5 straight points. Neither team is some kind of unbeatable juggernaut. If Texas brings their A game, I feel confident they come out with the victory. |
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Post by Longhorn20 on Dec 12, 2022 8:31:09 GMT -5
For any of you VolleyMetrics people, what have Stanford, San Diego, and Texas opponent passing numbers been so far this tournament? And can someone post passing numbers of SD’s and Texas’s passers in the tournament? I just think serve/pass is going to be especially crucial in this matchup since there’s such a big setter discrepancy. Here is the information. Opponent passing grade in the tournament Stanford: 1.85 San Diego: 2.06 Texas: 1.74 Passing grades so far in the tournament: San Diego: 2.02 Lukes: 2.08 43.6 GP% (110 attempts) Benbow: 2.1 41.6 GP% (65 attempts Allen: 2.02 42.9 GP% (49 attempts) Bennett: 1.95 42.9 GP% (43 attempts) Edwards: 1.7 25.9 GP% (27 attempts) Texas: 2.11 Akana: 1.89 41.1 GP% (56 attempts) Fleck: 2.34 68.5 GP% (54 attempts) Halter: 2.31 59 GP% (39 attempts) Eggleston: 2.1 50 GP% (24 attempts) Skinner: 1.85 40 GP% (20 attempts) Thanks for this! This makes me feel a little better about Texas’ chances since SD is (on average) losing the serve-pass game. |
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Post by vbcoltrane on Dec 12, 2022 9:54:03 GMT -5
San Diego, Louisville. While those are my first two, there's no one at this FF that I'm rooting AGAINST. Even Texas - the one legacy program in the bunch.
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Post by hornshouse23 on Dec 12, 2022 10:23:36 GMT -5
I’m clearly rooting for Texas with 110% of my heart. With that said, I truly don’t care what the outcome is. This rag tag group of transfers has come together and had an amazing season. The regional final comeback from set 2 was inspiring. Logan is a leader with a heart of gold, and the queen is back next year to claim her very own Big 13 player of the year award. The future is bright, win or lose. I’ll be happy for whomever prevails. Texas Fight!
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Post by hail2pitt on Dec 12, 2022 10:33:26 GMT -5
For any of you VolleyMetrics people, what have Stanford, San Diego, and Texas opponent passing numbers been so far this tournament? And can someone post passing numbers of SD’s and Texas’s passers in the tournament? I just think serve/pass is going to be especially crucial in this matchup since there’s such a big setter discrepancy. Flipping the script here- only using the last 5 quality opponents- basically just eliminating FDU for Texas and puts in Baylor Texas vs (OSU, Marquette, UGA, WVU, Baylor) 2.07- opponents passing a 1.87 Stanford vs (USD, Houston, LSU, Pepperdine, Cal) 2.15- opponents passing a 1.86 San Diego vs (Stanford, Kentucky, Washington St., Northern CO, BYU) 2.01- opponents 2.05 My biggest take away looking at these lists of opponents- San Diego had absolutely had the toughest route and played against the better teams which lends to worse passing numbers |
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Post by uofaGRAD on Dec 12, 2022 10:53:44 GMT -5
For any of you VolleyMetrics people, what have Stanford, San Diego, and Texas opponent passing numbers been so far this tournament? And can someone post passing numbers of SD’s and Texas’s passers in the tournament? I just think serve/pass is going to be especially crucial in this matchup since there’s such a big setter discrepancy. Flipping the script here- only using the last 5 quality opponents- basically just eliminating FDU for Texas and puts in Baylor Texas vs (OSU, Marquette, UGA, WVU, Baylor) 2.07- opponents passing a 1.87 Stanford vs (USD, Houston, LSU, Pepperdine, Cal) 2.15- opponents passing a 1.86 San Diego vs (Stanford, Kentucky, Washington St., Northern CO, BYU) 2.01- opponents 2.05 My biggest take away looking at these lists of opponents- San Diego had absolutely had the toughest route and played against the better teams which lends to worse passing numbers FDU, WVU, and Cal aren’t as far apart as you might think!💀 |
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Post by Longhorn20 on Dec 12, 2022 10:55:29 GMT -5
For any of you VolleyMetrics people, what have Stanford, San Diego, and Texas opponent passing numbers been so far this tournament? And can someone post passing numbers of SD’s and Texas’s passers in the tournament? I just think serve/pass is going to be especially crucial in this matchup since there’s such a big setter discrepancy. Flipping the script here- only using the last 5 quality opponents- basically just eliminating FDU for Texas and puts in Baylor Texas vs (OSU, Marquette, UGA, WVU, Baylor) 2.07- opponents passing a 1.87 Stanford vs (USD, Houston, LSU, Pepperdine, Cal) 2.15- opponents passing a 1.86 San Diego vs (Stanford, Kentucky, Washington St., Northern CO, BYU) 2.01- opponents 2.05 My biggest take away looking at these lists of opponents- San Diego had absolutely had the toughest route and played against the better teams which lends to worse passing numbers Oh for sure. Mainly the thing that sticks out to me is that SD’s opponents are still passing pretty well. Which tells me they aren’t an incredibly tough serving team as a whole. That bodes well for Texas who really only has 1-2 main out of system threats. |
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Post by diggerdive on Dec 12, 2022 11:12:41 GMT -5
Passing will determine if Texas wins the championship: I know that’s the most obvious and boring take. While SKT isn’t the quickest to the ball - when the pass is close enough, she does great things - and she’s very good at pulling off the more difficult “against the flow” and still giving a great ball location.
I’m not close enough to determine what the issue is with a somewhat fragile SKT/Skinner connection - but it feels like Skinner needs a higher set when OOS - but she’s getting the in-system 33 sets - which trap her (and Logan) so they start tipping. I hope when getting OOS (rarely) SKT can give them a little more height because if the set is off the net 3-4 feet I think the outsides can win that battle (most of the time).
Remember Alyson Jennings? She was (I think) the first true Libero at Texas and one of the first elite defensive players - and it was immediately apparent how she improved their passing and defense ability which lifted the entire team’s capacity. I feel like Im seeing that again with the Fleck/Halter combo. Texas in the past has always been in a mindset of shoring up less than elite passing with elite setting - but that obviously only takes you so far. This year it seems we finally have ALL the pieces coming together. And good team chemistry and good serving (what?!? where are we?). So if the passing holds - and I’m betting it will after watching Fleck walk a tightrope over some crazy canyon AND FALLING - not much puts her off her game. That woman is in a league of her own.
So, it’s mental. It’s psychology. I too hate the “just want it more” feedback. But what it IS about is putting the players in the best mindset to find their zones and they seem to be doing that really well with serious focus. I like this new guy coach - and I’m not just saying that because he has puppy breath.
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Post by braque on Dec 12, 2022 13:36:03 GMT -5
I’m clearly rooting for Texas with 110% of my heart. With that said, I truly don’t care what the outcome is. This rag tag group of transfers has come together and had an amazing season. The regional final comeback from set 2 was inspiring. Logan is a leader with a heart of gold, and the queen is back next year to claim her very own Big 13 player of the year award. The future is bright, win or lose. I’ll be happy for whomever prevails. Texas Fight! I have seriously wondered whether you're just kidding re the reference to a "rag tag group of transfers"!! The team is hyper-elite and a number of the transfers are themselves elite. There is absolutely nothing about this bunch that equates to "rag tag" LOL. In any event it's been a great group this year and I wish them all the best going forward. Too bad Nebraska isn't participating -- to me it would be equivalent to Spurs 2014 revenge against Miami, with Logan in the Timmy Duncan role! |
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Post by hornshouse23 on Dec 12, 2022 13:37:57 GMT -5
I’m clearly rooting for Texas with 110% of my heart. With that said, I truly don’t care what the outcome is. This rag tag group of transfers has come together and had an amazing season. The regional final comeback from set 2 was inspiring. Logan is a leader with a heart of gold, and the queen is back next year to claim her very own Big 13 player of the year award. The future is bright, win or lose. I’ll be happy for whomever prevails. Texas Fight! I have seriously wondered whether you're just kidding re the reference to a "rag tag group of transfers"!! The team is hyper-elite and a number of the transfers are themselves elite. There is absolutely nothing about this bunch that equates to "rag tag" LOL. In any event it's been a great group this year and I wish them all the best going forward. Too bad Nebraska isn't participating -- to me it would be equivalent to Spurs 2014 revenge against Miami, with Logan in the Timmy Duncan role! I like the phrase rag tag. |
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Post by raian13 on Dec 12, 2022 14:06:22 GMT -5
I know but I matched up Logan on the left while Frohling is at the opposite when they’re both in the front row. I matching up hitting vs blocking. Am I correct? But then why matchup Skinner with Edwards? I don't know. It's your matchup. It can be as consistent or inconsistent as you want. But it's confusing to me if you're trying to match up the left pin with the opposite - which you did in the case of Eggleston and Frohling and Phillips and Lukes - but then you have the two other left pins facing each other. Not to mention anyone else, who won't be lined up with one another, either. It doesn't bother me. It's just confusing. I just see both of these teams as very talented. I continue to believe the team that's able to get their opponent out of system the most will win, even if Blossom is amazing out of system...which she is. Some other fun things for me I haven't seen mentioned: San Diego is the only team I've watched that I believe runs as many slides as Texas. I'm not saying that's true for the whole country. It's just true for the matches I've watched. San Diego runs a ton of slides with Blackwell, and some to Stoner, too. Texas runs a ton to O'Neal, but they also run slides for either Caffey or Bergmark some as well. Blossom has 31 aces to 13 errors. Now, I'm not big on aces to errors ratios, but that's phenomenal. Lukes more than reverses that, however. Both teams are pretty much identical with how many service errors per set they average. San Diego is 2.19469 and Texas is 2.19354. 1/1000th of a point apart. Both teams force their opponents into poor hitting percentages. .157 for San Diego. .165 for Texas. Honestly, statistically these are two very even teams. I don’t know the rotation. Would you enlist who faces who in the front row? I sincerely would like to know the exact net match ups. |
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Post by SportyBucky on Dec 12, 2022 14:13:05 GMT -5
I think Texas needs to serve and pass significantly better than USD to win this game due to Blossom's abilities. The question is, can USD serve tough enough to disallow that and can they hang in there with their own passing? If not, a mostly in-system Texas will roll on to the finals. Don't underestimate San Diego, they're capable of pulling this one off. Really? That discounts the ability of TX hitters to simply dominate, including when OOS. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Dec 12, 2022 14:16:48 GMT -5
I think Texas needs to serve and pass significantly better than USD to win this game due to Blossom's abilities. The question is, can USD serve tough enough to disallow that and can they hang in there with their own passing? If not, a mostly in-system Texas will roll on to the finals. Don't underestimate San Diego, they're capable of pulling this one off. Really? That discounts the ability of TX hitters to simply dominate, including when OOS. SKT is going to win the match - for somebody. |
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Post by katn on Dec 12, 2022 14:24:42 GMT -5
Frohling is an opposite. So Eggleston = Lukes (depends on the night...typically edge to Eggleston) Skinner > Edwards Phillips < Frohling O’Neal < Blackwell Caffey +/- Stoner SKT < Blossom Fleck > Benbow Akana = Allen Blackwell over O’Neal? I’m gonna need y’all to start putting respect on her name! i ride with o'neal all day & everyday...even if you don't like texas she's crazy good (& one more year)...o'neal leading the country in hitting % & her blocking has not been the best this season but since the tournament she's been going off with her blocking...she's a great leader and such a hype player, her energy on the court...o'neal's a beast & she's on a mission |
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Post by hornshouse23 on Dec 12, 2022 14:28:09 GMT -5
Blackwell over O’Neal? I’m gonna need y’all to start putting respect on her name! i ride with o'neal all day & everyday...even if you don't like texas she's crazy good (& one more year)...o'neal leading the country in hitting % & her blocking has not been the best this season but since the tournament she's been going off with her blocking...she's a great leader and such a hype player, her energy on the court...o'neal's a beast & she's on a mission She came out of the huddle between sets two and three on a mission. She led the entire huddle, and then rocked those two blocks in a row. A true QUEEN! |
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