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Post by ay2013 on Jul 14, 2023 16:16:45 GMT -5
RPI does not care when you play a match. At any given time in the season, the only inputs to the raw RPI is your win/loss record (25%), your opponents win/loss record (50%), and your opponents-opponents win/loss record (25%). The adjusted RPI gives additional points for wins and losses to teams within a given range, as well as a shceudling bonus for having over 50% of your non-conference matches against teams in the top 75, but, again, it doesn't matter when those matches are played. The committee may, as it is a defined secondary selection criteria, look at the teams record in the last 10 matches. That goes counter to your argument of winning early helps more than getting wins later. Lastly, I have a hard time seeing how this non-conference is all about RPI. Out of the 11 non-conference opponents, only 5 had winning records last year and only two (JMU and Washington) finished the year in the top 75. I have a hard time seeing how a probable non-conference opponent win/loss record under .500 with no scheduling bonus is good RPI inputs for a team playing in the Big West. My sinple deduction is that regardless of a win or a lost, playing a team in conferences that will have a guaranty boost in RPI will provide your team a higher RPI pre-conference. Then say if your teams’ conference has low RPI teams, as you play each one, your RPI will take huge RPI hits but may still keep you in the bubble range which is a lot better than being in RPI basement. To me, it’s maximizing the possibility of boosting your RPI before conference, Hawai’i does it all the time. We know thats the most reliable way to boost you RPI. And bonus if you beat a team or two along the way. The trick is to be good enough so that your potential opponents would want to schedule you. I think the problem is that you start with a faulty premise. targeting a particular conference does NOT have a guaranteed boost in RPI. It's probably likely that the Big 10 or Big 12 will have the best non-conference win percentage next year, but I promise you that scheduling Rutgers, Iowa, or West Virginia isn't going to help your SOS - REGARDLESS if you win or lose the match. If you are a team looking for an at-large bid from a conference like the Big West, playing the RPI game means scheduling as many matches against teams you are likely to win against AND who will likely end the season with a winning record. Cal Poly probably did not do that, as I mentioned before, over half of their non-conference slate had LOSING records last year. After you actually play the general RPI game, there is an additional NCAA bid game, which is to identify other teams you think are likely to be in that "bubble" range for a bid, and actually win against them. Cal Poly only has one of those teams on the non-conference slate - Washington. All the other teams will either be an auto-bid or won't be in the tournament. Unless Poly gets wins against JMU and Washington, they are going to need to place top 2 in the Big West to get a bid this year, and I'd put good money on that.
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Post by jake on Jul 19, 2023 12:23:19 GMT -5
RPI does not care when you play a match. At any given time in the season, the only inputs to the raw RPI is your win/loss record (25%), your opponents win/loss record (50%), and your opponents-opponents win/loss record (25%). The adjusted RPI gives additional points for wins and losses to teams within a given range, as well as a shceudling bonus for having over 50% of your non-conference matches against teams in the top 75, but, again, it doesn't matter when those matches are played. The committee may, as it is a defined secondary selection criteria, look at the teams record in the last 10 matches. That goes counter to your argument of winning early helps more than getting wins later. Lastly, I have a hard time seeing how this non-conference is all about RPI. Out of the 11 non-conference opponents, only 5 had winning records last year and only two (JMU and Washington) finished the year in the top 75. I have a hard time seeing how a probable non-conference opponent win/loss record under .500 with no scheduling bonus is good RPI inputs for a team playing in the Big West. 1. 25% team's winning % 2. 50% team's opponent average winning % 3. 25% opponent's opponent's average winning % Sample RPI Calculation: Team X (8-1) plays team Y (1-8),... Show the math (cal) where Team X wins. Show the math (cal) where Team Y wins. Do not use the 25% opponent's opponent's % cal.
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Post by jake on Jul 23, 2023 12:19:11 GMT -5
CAL POLY will again be a total question mark in 2023.
Yes,...POLY is returning a starting line up of vet's. But, has lost their biggest offensive weapon---Maia Dvoracek to graduation.
Coach Walters has made no moves during the offseason to replace her. Relying totally on another year of experience from her returning squad to do the job.
She also has several talented ladies with little or no D-1 experience,...Warren, Masingale & Thalken. Whether they will blossom in 2023 remains to be seen!!!
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Post by jake on Jul 26, 2023 14:31:37 GMT -5
POLY's Mash Unit:
Kirra Kellerman (MB) 100% Annabelle Thalken (OH) 100% Kelly Schackel (OH) 100% Amy Hiatt (OH) 50%
Players last year that sustained a season ending injury before the start of the season.
Something that can't happen in 2023.
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Post by jake on Jul 29, 2023 10:35:01 GMT -5
When will Chris and coach Walters get together for that annual preseason podcast?
My one question for the Coach,..."can you win a championship with the team you have assemble"?
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Post by beachgrad on Jul 29, 2023 15:13:16 GMT -5
When will Chris and coach Walters get together for that annual preseason podcast? My one question for the Coach,..."can you win a championship with the team you have assemble"? Jake, of course a program that contends every year will answer that question yes. One of her team's goals will surely be to win a conference championship. Imagine what her team would think if she said no.
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Post by HawaiiVB on Jul 29, 2023 16:57:10 GMT -5
My sinple deduction is that regardless of a win or a lost, playing a team in conferences that will have a guaranty boost in RPI will provide your team a higher RPI pre-conference. Then say if your teams’ conference has low RPI teams, as you play each one, your RPI will take huge RPI hits but may still keep you in the bubble range which is a lot better than being in RPI basement. To me, it’s maximizing the possibility of boosting your RPI before conference, Hawai’i does it all the time. We know thats the most reliable way to boost you RPI. And bonus if you beat a team or two along the way. The trick is to be good enough so that your potential opponents would want to schedule you. I think the problem is that you start with a faulty premise. targeting a particular conference does NOT have a guaranteed boost in RPI. It's probably likely that the Big 10 or Big 12 will have the best non-conference win percentage next year, but I promise you that scheduling Rutgers, Iowa, or West Virginia isn't going to help your SOS - REGARDLESS if you win or lose the match. If you are a team looking for an at-large bid from a conference like the Big West, playing the RPI game means scheduling as many matches against teams you are likely to win against AND who will likely end the season with a winning record. Cal Poly probably did not do that, as I mentioned before, over half of their non-conference slate had LOSING records last year. After you actually play the general RPI game, there is an additional NCAA bid game, which is to identify other teams you think are likely to be in that "bubble" range for a bid, and actually win against them. Cal Poly only has one of those teams on the non-conference slate - Washington. All the other teams will either be an auto-bid or won't be in the tournament. Unless Poly gets wins against JMU and Washington, they are going to need to place top 2 in the Big West to get a bid this year, and I'd put good money on that. All that might be valid, but I'll give you a general example instead, in 2019 Hawai'i was year-end #18, the last time we were in the top 25. A huge factor was due to our pre-conference schedule. hawaiiathletics.com/sports/womens-volleyball/schedule/2019 We played the Big-10, the SEC, the Big-12, the Pac-12, and the WCC. Win or lose, our RPI at the end of that period was top 25. We didn't start there and we didn't end there, as our conference commenced, you could see our RPI dropping due to our in conferences teams RPI's. Had we not had a high RPI to start the conference play, we probably would have fallen below the "bubble" range, making it much harder to get an at-large bid. This coming season, the Big West tourney could spell spoiler, so having a high RPI could still get you an at large bid should you lose the BW championship.
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Post by jake on Jul 29, 2023 17:52:55 GMT -5
When will Chris and coach Walters get together for that annual preseason podcast? My one question for the Coach,..."can you win a championship with the team you have assemble"? Jake, of course a program that contends every year will answer that question yes. One of her team's goals will surely be to win a conference championship. Imagine what her team would think if she said no. Not so fast. Coach Walters isn't going to fake it,...and why should she? Her experience over the years should give her some kind of indication where CAL POLY will be at the start and at the end of the season. How many wins,...to make the BWCT is probably her goal right now. Coach Walters never impressed me as a coach that cared much about the RPI! She will put all her eggs in one basket,...winning the Championship or bust!
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Post by jake on Jul 30, 2023 11:06:27 GMT -5
My sinple deduction is that regardless of a win or a lost, playing a team in conferences that will have a guaranty boost in RPI will provide your team a higher RPI pre-conference. Then say if your teams’ conference has low RPI teams, as you play each one, your RPI will take huge RPI hits but may still keep you in the bubble range which is a lot better than being in RPI basement. To me, it’s maximizing the possibility of boosting your RPI before conference, Hawai’i does it all the time. We know thats the most reliable way to boost you RPI. And bonus if you beat a team or two along the way. The trick is to be good enough so that your potential opponents would want to schedule you. I think the problem is that you start with a faulty premise. targeting a particular conference does NOT have a guaranteed boost in RPI. It's probably likely that the Big 10 or Big 12 will have the best non-conference win percentage next year, but I promise you that scheduling Rutgers, Iowa, or West Virginia isn't going to help your SOS - REGARDLESS if you win or lose the match. If you are a team looking for an at-large bid from a conference like the Big West, playing the RPI game means scheduling as many matches against teams you are likely to win against AND who will likely end the season with a winning record. Cal Poly probably did not do that, as I mentioned before, over half of their non-conference slate had LOSING records last year. After you actually play the general RPI game, there is an additional NCAA bid game, which is to identify other teams you think are likely to be in that "bubble" range for a bid, and actually win against them. Cal Poly only has one of those teams on the non-conference slate - Washington. All the other teams will either be an auto-bid or won't be in the tournament. Unless Poly gets wins against JMU and Washington, they are going to need to place top 2 in the Big West to get a bid this year, and I'd put good money on that. Trying to simplify your comment: Scheduling very good teams that will be in the postseason and lose,...or schedule average teams that will probably not make the postseason and win all? Which premise will most likely give you the better RPI?
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Post by noblesol on Jul 30, 2023 12:41:40 GMT -5
50 25% of RPI is your own w/l record. Racking up wins is more important to RPI than scheduling overly tough.
A good non-conference schedule is filled mostly with teams that you think will have a good RPI and that you estimate you'll have ~50% chance of the win. With at least one or maybe two teams scheduled that will have a great RPI that your odds of beating are small, but you have a shot with and at least you'll grow from the experience.
If you are a team on the rise, you err to a tougher schedule. If you are in rebuild mode, you try to manage your losses and schedule accordingly; err to the weaker schedule. If you have lots of uncertainty, find middle ground and schedule balance.
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Post by HawaiiVB on Jul 30, 2023 12:58:14 GMT -5
I think the problem is that you start with a faulty premise. targeting a particular conference does NOT have a guaranteed boost in RPI. It's probably likely that the Big 10 or Big 12 will have the best non-conference win percentage next year, but I promise you that scheduling Rutgers, Iowa, or West Virginia isn't going to help your SOS - REGARDLESS if you win or lose the match. If you are a team looking for an at-large bid from a conference like the Big West, playing the RPI game means scheduling as many matches against teams you are likely to win against AND who will likely end the season with a winning record. Cal Poly probably did not do that, as I mentioned before, over half of their non-conference slate had LOSING records last year. After you actually play the general RPI game, there is an additional NCAA bid game, which is to identify other teams you think are likely to be in that "bubble" range for a bid, and actually win against them. Cal Poly only has one of those teams on the non-conference slate - Washington. All the other teams will either be an auto-bid or won't be in the tournament. Unless Poly gets wins against JMU and Washington, they are going to need to place top 2 in the Big West to get a bid this year, and I'd put good money on that. Trying to simplify your comment: Scheduling very good teams that will be in the postseason and lose,...or schedule average teams that will probably not make the postseason and win all? Which premise will most likely give you the better RPI? By the way I understand your question, without knowing the win lost records of both situations, I would still go with option a. Because of the assumption that those very good teams would probably come from a power five conference thus ensuring high rpi opponents. Now if you say, that in situation b the teams were Northwestern or Maryland or West Virginia, a win would still move the rpi needle up since they would be playing high rpi opponents as well. Deeming them average teams would depend on whose talking. From inside the power 5, just average, usually from outside the power 5, then the talk would be something like this. “They come from a power 5 conference so they play good teams nigh after night so they have experience with great teams. Losing to a very good team with a high rpi will still lift your rpi up. Beating an average team even with a decent rpi wouldn’t move your rpi up as much, but it would add a w to your tally so that would bring you closer to having a winning season, something most teams need to qualify.
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Post by medusa on Jul 30, 2023 20:00:18 GMT -5
I want to see UH, CP, LSB, SB all fight for the top position. These vare my top four teams, but hope the other teams gives my top four competition.
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,151
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Post by trojansc on Jul 31, 2023 3:17:29 GMT -5
All that might be valid, but I'll give you a general example instead, in 2019 Hawai'i was year-end #18, the last time we were in the top 25. A huge factor was due to our pre-conference schedule. hawaiiathletics.com/sports/womens-volleyball/schedule/2019 We played the Big-10, the SEC, the Big-12, the Pac-12, and the WCC. More specifically - Hawaii played the Big 12 Champs, WCC Champions, 2nd-place PAC team, 3rd-place SEC team, and the last placed Big 12 team. Scheduling P5 teams as a mid-major is usually a necessity in search of an at-large though not always, and it is not as simple as just scheduling P5 teams. Hawaii's RPI would have been better off if they had NOT played West Virginia, a Big 12 team, at all. Like, if you just erase the match from the schedule, even taking a win off Hawaii's record, their RPI rises.
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Post by jackson5vb on Jul 31, 2023 14:23:49 GMT -5
What are the chances that the P12 looks at Poly?
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Jul 31, 2023 16:45:53 GMT -5
What are the chances that the P12 looks at Poly? 0.00001% Hawaii is at about 0.01%
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