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Post by jake on Aug 1, 2023 22:22:51 GMT -5
50% of RPI is your own w/l record. Racking up wins is more important to RPI than scheduling overly tough. A good non-conference schedule is filled mostly with teams that you think will have a good RPI and that you estimate you'll have ~50% chance of the win. With at least one or maybe two teams scheduled that will have a great RPI that your odds of beating are small, but you have a shot with and at least you'll grow from the experience. If you are a team on the rise, you err to a tougher schedule. If you are in rebuild mode, you try to manage your losses and schedule accordingly; err to the weaker schedule. If you have lots of uncertainty, find middle ground and schedule balance. I agree with your assessment, too. Getting wins even though they are against easier teams is very important. Because as long as you are winning it's pretty hard to say you are a bad team.
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Post by noblesol on Aug 1, 2023 22:58:31 GMT -5
50% of RPI is your own w/l record. Racking up wins is more important to RPI than scheduling overly tough. A good non-conference schedule is filled mostly with teams that you think will have a good RPI and that you estimate you'll have ~50% chance of the win. With at least one or maybe two teams scheduled that will have a great RPI that your odds of beating are small, but you have a shot with and at least you'll grow from the experience. If you are a team on the rise, you err to a tougher schedule. If you are in rebuild mode, you try to manage your losses and schedule accordingly; err to the weaker schedule. If you have lots of uncertainty, find middle ground and schedule balance. I agree with your assessment, too. Getting wins even though they are against easier teams is very important. Because as long as you are winning it's pretty hard to say you are a bad team. Have to beat a very good team or two before anyone will give much respect to record. And a great RPI requires you beat some very good teams. But it's possible to have RPI from a great w/l record that puts a team into bubble zone contention without having beat a great team along the way. Just having played well enough to win against other teams that put together good w/l records, and even if they haven't beat any great teams. Some years it might be enough to beat the bubble, some years not. It's why it's important to schedule a couple of great teams in non-conference. Losing to one or two excellent RPI teams won't hurt the RPI and resume of a bubble RPI team much if at all. Lucking into an upset will greatly improve the odds of winning the bubble team sweepstakes.
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Post by jake on Aug 2, 2023 12:27:23 GMT -5
I agree with your assessment, too. Getting wins even though they are against easier teams is very important. Because as long as you are winning it's pretty hard to say you are a bad team. Have to beat a very good team or two before anyone will give much respect to record. And a great RPI requires you beat some very good teams. But it's possible to have RPI from a great w/l record that puts a team into bubble zone contention without having beat a great team along the way. Just having played well enough to win against other teams that put together good w/l records, and even if they haven't beat any great teams. Some years it might be enough to beat the bubble, some years not. It's why it's important to schedule a couple of great teams in non-conference. Losing to one or two excellent RPI teams won't hurt the RPI and resume of a bubble RPI team much if at all. Lucking into an upset will greatly improve the odds of winning the bubble team sweepstakes. Yes,...I would say coach Walters has done just that. And, with a little luck, will end the NC having a solid RPI.
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Post by vbsense02 on Aug 2, 2023 14:58:28 GMT -5
50% of RPI is your own w/l record. Racking up wins is more important to RPI than scheduling overly tough. A good non-conference schedule is filled mostly with teams that you think will have a good RPI and that you estimate you'll have ~50% chance of the win. With at least one or maybe two teams scheduled that will have a great RPI that your odds of beating are small, but you have a shot with and at least you'll grow from the experience. If you are a team on the rise, you err to a tougher schedule. If you are in rebuild mode, you try to manage your losses and schedule accordingly; err to the weaker schedule. If you have lots of uncertainty, find middle ground and schedule balance. Someone posted on an earlier page, but ONLY 25% of a team's RPI is their own win percentage. 50% Is opponent win %. The remaining 25% is Opponents/Opponents win%. So 75% of the calculation for RPI is about who a team schedules and then how they do against their schedule. Only 25% is a team's own win %
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Post by noblesol on Aug 2, 2023 16:12:55 GMT -5
50% of RPI is your own w/l record. Racking up wins is more important to RPI than scheduling overly tough. A good non-conference schedule is filled mostly with teams that you think will have a good RPI and that you estimate you'll have ~50% chance of the win. With at least one or maybe two teams scheduled that will have a great RPI that your odds of beating are small, but you have a shot with and at least you'll grow from the experience. If you are a team on the rise, you err to a tougher schedule. If you are in rebuild mode, you try to manage your losses and schedule accordingly; err to the weaker schedule. If you have lots of uncertainty, find middle ground and schedule balance. Someone posted on an earlier page, but ONLY 25% of a team's RPI is their own win percentage. 50% Is opponent win %. The remaining 25% is Opponents/Opponents win%. So 75% of the calculation for RPI is about who a team schedules and then how they do against their schedule. Only 25% is a team's own win % You are correct re the RPI formula. I did get that wrong, my apologies. Yet it doesn't change my general rules of evaluating a good non-conference schedule. Going 1-9 in the non-conference against great RPI teams might not result in a horrible RPI, but with that record you'd likely be a loser in the bubble team sweepstakes. You still have to rack up some wins against the schedule and against those great teams. Because at the end of the season come the RPI bonus/penalty adjustments and the w/l requirements to be tournament eligible. Teams that get wins against 1-25 RPI get ~two position bump in RPI. 26-50 RPI wins get ~ a 1 position bump. Play 50% or more of non-conf games against 1-75 RPI and earn a two position RPI bonus. But have too weak of a schedule or bad losses against really weak teams, and you'll gather RPI position penalties. Other teams getting RPI positioned bumped up because they win against the great teams means those who lose against great RPI teams are effectively bumped down after the RPI adjustments at end of season. And tournament selection rides on more than RPI. Fail to have .500 record or better end of season, and it won't matter your RPI, you're ineligible. And Nitty Gritty will look at the non-conference w/l record. Fail to win sufficiently against your non-conf schedule and it could cancel out your non-conf RPI.
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Post by jake on Aug 2, 2023 20:47:16 GMT -5
Someone posted on an earlier page, but ONLY 25% of a team's RPI is their own win percentage. 50% Is opponent win %. The remaining 25% is Opponents/Opponents win%. So 75% of the calculation for RPI is about who a team schedules and then how they do against their schedule. Only 25% is a team's own win % You are correct re the RPI formula. I did get that wrong, my apologies. Yet it doesn't change my general rules of evaluating a good non-conference schedule. Going 1-9 in the non-conference against great RPI teams might not result in a horrible RPI, but with that record you'd likely be a loser in the bubble team sweepstakes. You still have to rack up some wins against the schedule and against those great teams. Because at the end of the season come the RPI bonus/penalty adjustments and the w/l requirements to be tournament eligible. Teams that get wins against 1-25 RPI get ~two position bump in RPI. 25-50 RPI wins get ~ a 1 position bump. Play 50% or more of non-conf games against 1-75 RPI and earn a two position RPI bonus. But have too weak of a schedule or bad losses against really weak teams, and you'll gather RPI position penalties. Other teams getting RPI positioned bumped up because they win against the great teams means those who lose against great RPI teams are effectively bumped down after the RPI adjustments at end of season. And tournament selection rides on more than RPI. Fail to have .500 record or better end of season, and it won't matter your RPI, you're ineligible. And Nitty Gritty will look at the non-conference w/l record. Fail to win sufficiently against your non-conf schedule and it could cancel out your non-conf RPI. It's 25% of your own W/L record. But, it's 50% of your opponents' average W/L record. And, it's 25% of your opponent's opponent's average W/L record. Your own W/L record is still going to be the biggest number,...I believe or should be.
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Post by roy on Aug 3, 2023 1:32:19 GMT -5
It's 25% of your own W/L record. But, it's 50% of your opponents' average W/L record. And, it's 25% of your opponent's opponent's average W/L record. Your own W/L record is still going to be the biggest number,...I believe or should be. I think this is why everyone says it's a balance. One of our RPI experts (maybe trojansc or bluepenquin) showed that if you scheduled the top teams (say Texas, Stanford, Penn State, etc.), you can still have a better RPI if you went winless in your non-conference schedule than scheduling weak RPI teams that have a losing record but you win everyone one of those games. Hawaii showed that in the past couple of years, coming in with a losing non-conference record, but still a pretty high RPI. This is why the mantra is schedule the best teams that will have the best records that you think you can beat. Teams like Stephen F Austin (25-5), James Madison (24-5), and New Hampshire (18-10) are great. Winnable matches and will get you a great opponents winning percent. A team like Iowa, maybe not worth it. 10-21 in the Big 10 and have the ability to play tough given their conference and upset a good team. Cal Poly could lose to them and they are not going to provide a boost to the opponent winning percent which accounts for 50% of your RPI.
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Post by jake on Aug 4, 2023 13:21:11 GMT -5
It's 25% of your own W/L record. But, it's 50% of your opponents' average W/L record. And, it's 25% of your opponent's opponent's average W/L record. Your own W/L record is still going to be the biggest number,...I believe or should be. I think this is why everyone says it's a balance. One of our RPI experts (maybe trojansc or bluepenquin) showed that if you scheduled the top teams (say Texas, Stanford, Penn State, etc.), you can still have a better RPI if you went winless in your non-conference schedule than scheduling weak RPI teams that have a losing record but you win everyone one of those games. Hawaii showed that in the past couple of years, coming in with a losing non-conference record, but still a pretty high RPI. This is why the mantra is schedule the best teams that will have the best records that you think you can beat. Teams like Stephen F Austin (25-5), James Madison (24-5), and New Hampshire (18-10) are great. Winnable matches and will get you a great opponents winning percent. A team like Iowa, maybe not worth it. 10-21 in the Big 10 and have the ability to play tough given their conference and upset a good team. Cal Poly could lose to them and they are not going to provide a boost to the opponent winning percent which accounts for 50% of your RPI. Not sure I agree with your comment,...schedule very good teams and losing all will still give you a better RPI than winning say all 10 NC matches against weak opponents. Sure the minute you lose a match against a so-so team your RPI might take a dive. As long as you are winning your RPI will be bright and you stay in control. Of course, you don't want to go to he "dark side" and play a bunch of super weak teams,...either.
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Post by roy on Aug 4, 2023 22:00:10 GMT -5
Not sure I agree with your comment,...schedule very good teams and losing all will still give you a better RPI than winning say all 10 NC matches against weak opponents. Sure the minute you lose a match against a so-so team your RPI might take a dive. As long as you are winning your RPI will be bright and you stay in control. Of course, you don't want to go to he "dark side" and play a bunch of super weak teams,...either. Our RPI experts are better equipped to confirm this, but here is an example based on what I understand. Your team goes 0-10 against really good teams, all who go 25-5 overall. Let's just say the opponent-opponent winning percent isn't impacted and stays the same in all scenarios: 0.0 WP, .833 OWP, .5 OOWP. This equates to .541667 Your team goes 10-0 against bad teams, all who go 5-25 overall. 1.0 WP, .166 OWP, .5 OOWP. This equates to .45833 Your team plays a more ideal schedule going 7-3, and all opponents go 20-10 overall. 0.7 WP, .667 OWP, .5 OOWP. This equates to .63333 So, yes, you want to win, but who you play is also important. You can lose to very good competition and still have a better RPI than playing a really bad team. But your best scenario is to play good teams that you can beat, but will also have good records.
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Post by noblesol on Aug 5, 2023 4:35:55 GMT -5
Another way to look at the problem, is interactively. IOW, verification by result. Because we only care about RPI as it's one of the many primary selection criteria, one of the few that are objective in nature. Immensely flawed, but objective. But, it is only one of many things looked at and each selection committee gets to decide how to weigh it. So, if we want to know how non-conf. RPI was weighed last year vs. non-conf. records, we should look at how non-conf. records were weighed at tournament selection. Seems obvious...
So, how many teams made the tournament in the 2022 season with losing non-conference records, and that didn't win their AQ? The answer is only one team, TCU. TCU was 5-6 in their non-conf, which gave them a #116 non-conf. RPI. But, they were in the #1 RPI conference last year (BIG 12) where they went 11-4. TCU's very good winning record in the #1 RPI conference put them into the tournament, allowing them to finish with a #39 RPI.
The only other team to make the tournament with a losing non-conf. record that had a chance of selection w/o the AQ was Hawai'i, at 3-5 non-conf. Which gave them only a #69 non-conf. RPI. However in conference they went 19-1 and finished with a #36 Adj. RPI, and the conference AQ. Even with a #36 RPI, their losing non. conf. record might have made them a bubble team without the AQ, with that poor #69 non-conf. RPI.
However, the wins Hawai'i got in the non-conference were key for them in helping their season RPI, along with two special case losses. They upset USC - Adj. RPI #25, and got a good win vs. Texas St., both of which got them RPI bonus points. And they got the non. conf. scheduling RPI bonus points, and two of their non-conf. losses were to exceptional RPI teams which didn't hurt them (Penn St - #3 RPI, and USD - #6 RPI.)
So, interactive proof based on the 2022 NCAA WVB DIV I season, shows that the bottom line in non-conf. scheduling is if you schedule overly tough and wind up with a losing non-conf. record, you better plan on blasting through your so-so conference and winning its AQ, or have a great winning conf. record in an excellent RPI conference.
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Post by jake on Aug 7, 2023 16:15:14 GMT -5
Another way to look at the problem, is interactively. IOW, verification by result. Because we only care about RPI as it's one of the many primary selection criteria, one of the few that are objective in nature. Immensely flawed, but objective. But, it is only one of many things looked at and each selection committee gets to decide how to weigh it. So, if we want to know how non-conf. RPI was weighed last year vs. non-conf. records, we should look at how non-conf. records were weighed at tournament selection. Seems obvious... So, how many teams made the tournament in the 2022 season with losing non-conference records, and that didn't win their AQ? The answer is only one team, TCU. TCU was 5-6 in their non-conf, which gave them a #116 non-conf. RPI. But, they were in the #1 RPI conference last year (BIG 12) where they went 11-4. TCU's very good winning record in the #1 RPI conference put them into the tournament, allowing them to finish with a #39 RPI. The only other team to make the tournament with a losing non-conf. record that had a chance of selection w/o the AQ was Hawai'i, at 3-5 non-conf. Which gave them only a #69 non-conf. RPI. However in conference they went 19-1 and finished with a #36 Adj. RPI, and the conference AQ. Even with a #36 RPI, their losing non. conf. record might have made them a bubble team without the AQ, with that poor #69 non-conf. RPI. However, the wins Hawai'i got in the non-conference were key for them in helping their season RPI, along with two special case losses. They upset USC - Adj. RPI #25, and got a good win vs. Texas St., both of which got them RPI bonus points. And they got the non. conf. scheduling RPI bonus points, and two of their non-conf. losses were to exceptional RPI teams which didn't hurt them (Penn St - #3 RPI, and USD - #6 RPI.) So, interactive proof based on the 2022 NCAA WVB DIV I season, shows that the bottom line in non-conf. scheduling is if you schedule overly tough and wind up with a losing non-conf. record, you better plan on blasting through your so-so conference and winning its AQ, or have a great winning conf. record in an excellent RPI conference. For CAL POLY and any BWC team the conference isn't going to give you much help if you come out of the NC with an RPI over 100. Past history has shown the bottom half of the conference can get pretty brutal. It's good the BWC will have a tournament this year,...at least the AQ team can battle all season and play their best volleyball at the end and get in. I like POLY's NC schedule. Coach Walters has found a number of teams she can beat and who will do well in their respective conferences. .
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Post by jake on Aug 7, 2023 18:31:41 GMT -5
Anyone know when CAL POLY will begin practice for 2023 season?
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Post by BeachbytheBay on Aug 7, 2023 18:50:53 GMT -5
Anyone know when CAL POLY will begin practice for 2023 season? tommorrow - the girls are getting prepped and running laps around the track as we speak
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Post by noblesol on Aug 7, 2023 22:21:38 GMT -5
I've looked over the non-conf. schedules for Hawai'i, Beach, UCSB, UCD, UCI, and Cal Poly using the 2022 selection RPI Nitty Gritty as the preseason benchmark of strength. I'll put out a little summary or table comparing them, but for a little fun I wanted to include a comparison to the non-conf. schedules of the remaining PAC-4.
For now, I can definitely say that for the top six BW finishers from last year, Cal Poly has the weakest 2023 non-conf. schedule. Their opponents avg. 2022 selection Adj. RPI score is .51965, which equates to a 2022 selection Adj. RPI rank of about 135. The average of conference RPI rankings of their opponents is about 13.4. BW had a conf. RPI ranking of 14 last year. Only 33% of their 2023 opponents have a stronger 2022 selection Adj. RPI than Cal Poly finished with last season. By comparison using the same metrics, Hawai'i has the strongest 2023 non-conference schedule in the BW with an opponents avg. 2022 selection Adj. RPI score of 0.60384 which equates to a 2022 selection Adj. RPI rank of about 35. The average conference ranking of their opponents is about 6.5, close to the WCC which finished at #6. 45% of their opponents have a stronger 2022 Adj. Selection RPI than Hawai'i finished with last season.
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Post by jake on Aug 8, 2023 11:48:37 GMT -5
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