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Post by brooselee on Jul 28, 2023 0:37:48 GMT -5
I predict a merger between whoever is left in the PAC and one of the other western conferences. Probably they will take the PAC name because of the historical cachet. I wonder if any institution has the right to the PAC name. I know Oregon and Washington along with OSU and I believe Cal were founding members. Wonder if they will allow for that conference to continue to exist as a G5 conference or “retire” the conference and let it die as a P5 conference and not let these lower level schools undo all the history and prestige. If 5 years from now, you have NMSU, UNM, CSU, USU and all these other schools playing in a watered down PAC 12 conference, all the history will be forgotten. TBH…the PAC is currently the laughingstock of college athletics. It’s the only major conference with no TV contract, with members leaving and others threatening to leave. It’s a sinking ship that every member want to bail on. Maybe their prestige is already gone.
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Post by JJVb on Jul 28, 2023 0:55:02 GMT -5
I predict a merger between whoever is left in the PAC and one of the other western conferences. Probably they will take the PAC name because of the historical cachet. I wonder if any institution has the right to the PAC name. I know Oregon and Washington along with OSU and I believe Cal were founding members. Wonder if they will allow for that conference to continue to exist as a G5 conference or “retire” the conference and let it die as a P5 conference and not let these lower level schools undo all the history and prestige. If 5 years from now, you have NMSU, UNM, CSU, USU and all these other schools playing in a watered down PAC 12 conference, all the history will be forgotten. I think Oregon, Washington, and Stanford will have a lot of say so about how to move forward, but the PAC statement seems to show no intention of letting go of the conference.
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Post by mikegarrison on Jul 28, 2023 0:56:32 GMT -5
I wonder if any institution has the right to the PAC name. I know Oregon and Washington along with OSU and I believe Cal were founding members. Wonder if they will allow for that conference to continue to exist as a G5 conference or “retire” the conference and let it die as a P5 conference and not let these lower level schools undo all the history and prestige. If 5 years from now, you have NMSU, UNM, CSU, USU and all these other schools playing in a watered down PAC 12 conference, all the history will be forgotten. I think Oregon, Washington, and Stanford will have a lot of say so about how to move forward, but the PAC statement seems to show no intention of letting go of the conference. The PAC name and tradition is valuable IP. (For now, anyway.)
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Post by JJVb on Jul 28, 2023 1:06:41 GMT -5
So the MWC has an exit fee, so SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, Fresno state would cause extra fees for the PAC or just not be able to join. When is the next year a team can exit the MWC without paying the fee? And what about the AAC for SMU, and the Big West for Hawaii, for example. PAC will look at their options and move accordingly it seems, even if they take their time getting teams.
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Post by brooselee on Jul 28, 2023 1:20:10 GMT -5
So the MWC has an exit fee, so SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, Fresno state would cause extra fees for the PAC or just not be able to join. When is the next year a team can exit the MWC without paying the fee? And what about the AAC for SMU, and the Big West for Hawaii, for example. PAC will look at their options and move accordingly it seems, even if they take their time getting teams. The exit fee stands until the end of the TV contract. If MWC teams were to announce they will leave over a year from now, I believe it will be 17 mi. I think it works like this …..give the conference one year or less of notice …..34 mil……give the conference over one year… ……17 mi. SDSU had until June 30 to tell the conference whether they will leave or not for the year 2024 and the fee would be 17 mil. On July 1st the fee went up to 34 mil. That’s why SDSU came back to the MWC. They would have had no home if they paid the 17 mil to leave and then NOT get invited to the PAC12. I think if SDSU was to tell the MWC today that they will leave in 2025, then it will be 17 mil since they are giving over a year’s notice. I think the larger exit fee is to prevent teams from leaving last minute and screwing the conference over. A heavier penalty is warranted IMHO. There will always have exit fees until they negotiate it out during the new TV contact. mwwire.com/2022/07/21/mountain-west-schools-could-pay-a-buyout-of-up-to-33-million/
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Post by mikegarrison on Jul 28, 2023 1:20:18 GMT -5
So the MWC has an exit fee, so SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, Fresno state would cause extra fees for the PAC or just not be able to join. When is the next year a team can exit the MWC without paying the fee? And what about the AAC for SMU, and the Big West for Hawaii, for example. PAC will look at their options and move accordingly it seems, even if they take their time getting teams. One reason I predict a merger, ultimately, is that "exit fees" and such would not be relevant in that case. There would possibly be payoffs involved, however, for schools that didn't end up in the merged conference. If any.
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Post by JJVb on Jul 28, 2023 1:28:51 GMT -5
So the MWC has an exit fee, so SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, Fresno state would cause extra fees for the PAC or just not be able to join. When is the next year a team can exit the MWC without paying the fee? And what about the AAC for SMU, and the Big West for Hawaii, for example. PAC will look at their options and move accordingly it seems, even if they take their time getting teams. One reason I predict a merger, ultimately, is that "exit fees" and such would not be relevant in that case. There would possibly be payoffs involved, however, for schools that didn't end up in the merged conference. If any. If a merger is to occur, it seems like one with the MWC would make the most sense. PAC-21 here we go! haha, or a few go out and a PAC-18 would be fine too.
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Post by oldnewbie on Jul 28, 2023 1:36:29 GMT -5
So the MWC has an exit fee, so SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, Fresno state would cause extra fees for the PAC or just not be able to join. When is the next year a team can exit the MWC without paying the fee? And what about the AAC for SMU, and the Big West for Hawaii, for example. PAC will look at their options and move accordingly it seems, even if they take their time getting teams. One reason I predict a merger, ultimately, is that "exit fees" and such would not be relevant in that case. There would possibly be payoffs involved, however, for schools that didn't end up in the merged conference. If any. I'd still like a "merger" that preserves the PAC-8, PAC10 or 6-PAC within an expanded B1G, that lets the "divisions" play home and home in the Olympic sports to reduce travel. OSU, WSU to a stronger MWC. Washington, Oregon, Stanford, USC, UCLA and ?? Who else? Cal? Utah? Arizona? WSU, OSU and Cal to the MWC, UA, ASU, Utah to either MWC or B12.
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Post by JJVb on Jul 28, 2023 1:39:36 GMT -5
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Post by mikegarrison on Jul 28, 2023 3:37:09 GMT -5
I'd still like a "merger" that preserves the PAC-8, PAC10 or 6-PAC within an expanded B1G, that lets the "divisions" play home and home in the Olympic sports to reduce travel. Not gonna happen. 1) What's in it for the B1G? 2) Too much blood on the floor right now for the PAC and the B1G to make nicey nicey. 3) USC/UCLA wanted to leave the PAC, not to end up in the exact same conference except being a satrapy of the B1G. Anyway, the B1G and the SEC are clearly moving to be the "P2", although they might not be able to push the Big 12 and the ACC completely out of the picture. At some point I see them cutting their dead weight schools (football-wise) and consolidating into two groups that include all the most profitable and valuable football schools in the country. These will probably still have the names SEC and Big 10, but won't really have the historical context. Possibly they could even go to a Euro-style "promotion/relegation" model. Big 10 fans who are so sure that the Big 10 would never cut original schools to concentrate the money are just fooling themselves. The Big 10 that never would have done that would also never have grabbed schools from LA.
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Post by tomclen on Jul 28, 2023 11:05:00 GMT -5
"There's really nothing left....this league no longer has any relevance on the national stage."
Keegan Cook got on one of the last life boats.
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Post by vbnerd on Jul 28, 2023 12:57:48 GMT -5
TBH…the PAC is currently the laughingstock of college athletics. It’s the only major conference with no TV contract, with members leaving and others threatening to leave. It’s a sinking ship that every member want to bail on. Maybe their prestige is already gone. To be fair, we've been laughing at Larry Scott for quite a while. He spent too much money. The new commish is too trusting - with his gentlemen's agreement with the Big 10 and ACC. Once upon a time the Pac 12 had a chance to get Texas and Oklahoma, but didn't. After Texas and Oklahoma went to the SEC they had their choice of 8 Big 12 schools, and any G5 program in the country. They passed. When USC and UCLA left, IDK if they were hoping UCLA would be forced to stay by the State of California or what, but the inaction... ugh. And I think we all realized at some point that it wasn't just the Commissioners, but a real lack of vision among the ADs and presidents - overestimating their history/geography/value and underestimating the hunger of the other leagues. As they say in the SEC, it just means more. By comparison, the Pac 12, it just didn't mean enough to them to put in the effort to get this right. You say they are the laughingstock but I think the laughter is stopping. The Pac 12 is no longer funny. It's on the precipice of being tragic at some of these schools.
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Post by brooselee on Jul 28, 2023 14:02:09 GMT -5
I really don’t see how the PAC name will survive. If other marquee schools leave(OU, UW, UA, ASU, Utah) the conference will be left with Cal, Stanford, OSU and WSU. In order for the conference to keep the name and survive, they need to bring teams in. With no TV contract in hand and the high exit fee from the MWC, I don’t see how they can afford to bring teams in. Maybe the WAC have no exit fee, I don’t know but the logical conference to raid is the MWC and they have a big penalty to leave.
It would also be unwise for teams to leave the stability of their current conferences and join one that has no money coming in and very doubtful future TV contract will be P5 level.
If the teams I mentioned were to leave, I can see George Kliavkoff resigning and headed back to private business and the league will be forced to find a replacement for him. Again, no TV contract and no money coming in. Who will work for free?
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 28, 2023 14:49:53 GMT -5
I really don’t see how the PAC name will survive. If other marquee schools leave(OU, UW, UA, ASU, Utah) the conference will be left with Cal, Stanford, OSU and WSU. In order for the conference to keep the name and survive, they need to bring teams in. With no TV contract in hand and the high exit fee from the MWC, I don’t see how they can afford to bring teams in. Maybe the WAC have no exit fee, I don’t know but the logical conference to raid is the MWC and they have a big penalty to leave. It would also be unwise for teams to leave the stability of their current conferences and join one that has no money coming in and very doubtful future TV contract will be P5 level. If the teams I mentioned were to leave, I can see George Kliavkoff resigning and headed back to private business and the league will be forced to find a replacement for him. Again, no TV contract and no money coming in. Who will work for free? The Pac-12 brand still has value. Even if it's mostly Mountain West schools, I think they will retain the name.
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Post by brooselee on Jul 28, 2023 16:34:56 GMT -5
I really don’t see how the PAC name will survive. If other marquee schools leave(OU, UW, UA, ASU, Utah) the conference will be left with Cal, Stanford, OSU and WSU. In order for the conference to keep the name and survive, they need to bring teams in. With no TV contract in hand and the high exit fee from the MWC, I don’t see how they can afford to bring teams in. Maybe the WAC have no exit fee, I don’t know but the logical conference to raid is the MWC and they have a big penalty to leave. It would also be unwise for teams to leave the stability of their current conferences and join one that has no money coming in and very doubtful future TV contract will be P5 level. If the teams I mentioned were to leave, I can see George Kliavkoff resigning and headed back to private business and the league will be forced to find a replacement for him. Again, no TV contract and no money coming in. Who will work for free? The Pac-12 brand still has value. Even if it's mostly Mountain West schools, I think they will retain the name. That is what we all believe but does the name really still have value when the teams in the conference nowhere resemble P5 level program? I don’t think so. You may or may not noticed but most pundits are not talking about the PAC raiding the MWC because they know the exit fee is a deterrent. They, instead, are talking about their potential demise because there is no way the conference will continue to have status without marquee teams. www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/pac-12-conference-of-champions-murky-future-colorado-returns-to-big-12/
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