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Post by bbg95 on Jul 1, 2024 12:59:15 GMT -5
I repeat: no conglomerate of Big 12 and ACC (sans FSU/Clem) are going to suddenly get Big Ten/SEC money. Not even close. So it’s just dumb to merge. Who said anything about a merger? If the ACC breaks up, the more valuable schools would get poached by the SEC and/or the Big Ten. The Big 12 would then likely add the best of what's left. But even if all three conferences add four schools, there will be a some that get left out. With the additions of Stanford, Cal and SMU, the ACC now has 18 schools (including quasi-member Notre Dame). So 12 schools getting a lifeboat would still mean six left in the cold.
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Post by slxpress on Jul 1, 2024 13:06:55 GMT -5
If the ACC loses Florida State and Clemson that isn’t all they’re losing. I see the remaining schools not scooped up by the Big 10 and SEC going to the Big 12, or the Allstate Conference, or whatever they’re calling themselves at that point. There will be 3 power conferences, but really 2 and 1 made up of schools a tier below. I don’t foresee OSU or WSU being part of that. I don't think all the ACC schools would get into the Big 12. Some would, and some would get relegated like Oregon State and Washington State. I agree. I didn’t mean to suggest that. Only that WSU and OSU have no path to ever be a part of the top tier ever again. And that after FSU and Clemson leave, the ACC will be carved up just like the PAC 12 was, with whatever group of schools that holds that conference name having the same amount of relevancy that a WSU/OSU led PAC 12 has with MWC schools.
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Post by mplsgopher on Jul 1, 2024 13:13:09 GMT -5
If the ACC breaks up, the more valuable schools would get poached by the SEC and/or the Big Ten. Oh, that angle. If UNC and UVA wanted to follow Maryland to the Scrooge McDuck bank vault of perpetual conference irrelevance, they would have done that. FSU and Clemson will either begrudgingly accept that they can’t win and slink back, or they’ll pay dearly to leave. No one else in the ACC will want that bludgeoning. 2036 is really not that far away, in budget planning timescales.
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 1, 2024 13:18:31 GMT -5
If the ACC breaks up, the more valuable schools would get poached by the SEC and/or the Big Ten. Oh, that angle. If UNC and UVA wanted to follow Maryland to the Scrooge McDuck bank vault of perpetual conference irrelevance, they would have done that. FSU and Clemson will either begrudgingly accept that they can’t win and slink back, or they’ll pay dearly to leave. No one else in the ACC will want that bludgeoning. 2036 is really not that far away, in budget planning timescales. I didn't say it was going to happen now. I'm skeptical that FSU and Clemson will be able to get out early. But eventually, they will be able to get out, even if it means they have to wait until 2036. And at that point, I don't see how the ACC survives in its current form.
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Post by mplsgopher on Jul 1, 2024 20:12:17 GMT -5
Oh, that angle. If UNC and UVA wanted to follow Maryland to the Scrooge McDuck bank vault of perpetual conference irrelevance, they would have done that. FSU and Clemson will either begrudgingly accept that they can’t win and slink back, or they’ll pay dearly to leave. No one else in the ACC will want that bludgeoning. 2036 is really not that far away, in budget planning timescales. I didn't say it was going to happen now. I'm skeptical that FSU and Clemson will be able to get out early. But eventually, they will be able to get out, even if it means they have to wait until 2036. And at that point, I don't see how the ACC survives in its current form. Fair enough, nobody knows for sure what will happen then.
If UNC and UVA want to keep having their traditional conference that they've always had since the beginning of the ACC, it'll stay.
If they want to become the next Marylands in the Big Ten, they'll join the Big Ten.
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Post by slxpress on Jul 1, 2024 21:17:15 GMT -5
I didn't say it was going to happen now. I'm skeptical that FSU and Clemson will be able to get out early. But eventually, they will be able to get out, even if it means they have to wait until 2036. And at that point, I don't see how the ACC survives in its current form. Fair enough, nobody knows for sure what will happen then.
If UNC and UVA want to keep having their traditional conference that they've always had since the beginning of the ACC, it'll stay.
If they want to become the next Marylands in the Big Ten, they'll join the Big Ten.
There’s a legitimate fear that every school not in the Big 10 or SEC is s fighting irrelevancy because of the tremendous discrepancy in the market value of the conferences. UNC has already indicated in different ways they’re looking for an exit.
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 1, 2024 23:59:25 GMT -5
Fair enough, nobody knows for sure what will happen then.
If UNC and UVA want to keep having their traditional conference that they've always had since the beginning of the ACC, it'll stay.
If they want to become the next Marylands in the Big Ten, they'll join the Big Ten. There’s a legitimate fear that every school not in the Big 10 or SEC is s fighting irrelevancy because of the tremendous discrepancy in the market value of the conferences. UNC has already indicated in different ways they’re looking for an exit. Yeah, I think a number of the schools in the Pac-12 or the old Big East preferred that their conferences survive rather than having to go elsewhere, but the financial realities made it untenable. Even an extremely valuable school like USC was looking at making way less money than its fellow blue bloods (not to mention the perception advantage that the Big Ten and especially the SEC had due to their significantly greater success in winning football national titles in the last 20 years), so it was predictable that they would eventually leave to get on equal footing with the Michigans and Ohio States of the world. So whether North Carolina would prefer to keep the ACC intact is almost irrelevant unless the ACC can get a TV deal on par with the SEC and Big Ten.
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Post by n00b on Jul 2, 2024 10:56:16 GMT -5
I didn't say it was going to happen now. I'm skeptical that FSU and Clemson will be able to get out early. But eventually, they will be able to get out, even if it means they have to wait until 2036. And at that point, I don't see how the ACC survives in its current form. Fair enough, nobody knows for sure what will happen then. If UNC and UVA want to keep having their traditional conference that they've always had since the beginning of the ACC, it'll stay. If they want to become the next Marylands in the Big Ten, they'll join the Big Ten.
I think you’re talking about two very different athletic departments. First, Maryland and Rutgers wouldn’t get the Big Ten invite in today’s climate. TV markets don’t really matter, it’s about who will draw the most viewers for marquee matchups on Saturday afternoons. Carolina is one of the biggest brands in college athletics. They’ll get a Big Ten invitation AND they’ll be successful. I highly doubt Virginia would get an invitation because they just don’t have that sort of appeal and their football is tragic. The Big Ten is still only going to invite programs who increase their per-school payout. And at this point, that means the school has to be VERY valuable.
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 2, 2024 11:27:31 GMT -5
Fair enough, nobody knows for sure what will happen then. If UNC and UVA want to keep having their traditional conference that they've always had since the beginning of the ACC, it'll stay. If they want to become the next Marylands in the Big Ten, they'll join the Big Ten.
I think you’re talking about two very different athletic departments. First, Maryland and Rutgers wouldn’t get the Big Ten invite in today’s climate. TV markets don’t really matter, it’s about who will draw the most viewers for marquee matchups on Saturday afternoons. Carolina is one of the biggest brands in college athletics. They’ll get a Big Ten invitation AND they’ll be successful. I highly doubt Virginia would get an invitation because they just don’t have that sort of appeal and their football is tragic. The Big Ten is still only going to invite programs who increase their per-school payout. And at this point, that means the school has to be VERY valuable. I've yet to see any evidence that North Carolina is a major draw for college football. It is and always has been a basketball school. And as you said, TV markets don't really matter anymore, so that means North Carolina would have to get there primarily on the strength of its football brand, lol. I also disagree that the Big Ten will only take schools that increase their per-school payout. Their recent history (with the exception of USC) has not suggested that at all. I'm not saying North Carolina won't get an invite for other reasons, but the notion that they're an especially valuable brand in football is ridiculous.
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Post by luckydawg on Jul 2, 2024 14:46:31 GMT -5
The Big Ten is still only going to invite programs who increase their per-school payout. And at this point, that means the school has to be VERY valuable. The best example of this is Stanford and Cal. Both in a huge TV market, but no one cares enough to watch their games. That's why they had to accept an ACC offer at a fire sale price.
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Post by ay2013 on Jul 2, 2024 17:14:26 GMT -5
The Big Ten is still only going to invite programs who increase their per-school payout. And at this point, that means the school has to be VERY valuable. After the powers that be realize that they overpaid for the LA schools, when they start to actually apply some smarts in these decisions, they'll realize that they'll get more bang for the their buck by getting rid of schools rather than adding them (Notre Dame notwithstanding).
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Post by n00b on Jul 2, 2024 17:38:41 GMT -5
The Big Ten is still only going to invite programs who increase their per-school payout. And at this point, that means the school has to be VERY valuable. After the powers that be realize that they overpaid for the LA schools, When they start to actually apply some smarts in these decisions, they'll realize that they'll get more bang for the their buck by getting rid of schools rather than adding them (Notre Dame notwithstanding). I dont think they’ll ever do that. The most profitable athletic departments could leave to make their own super league of the top 12 or whatever, but I don’t see them ever kicking schools out of their conferences.
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Post by ay2013 on Jul 2, 2024 17:44:11 GMT -5
After the powers that be realize that they overpaid for the LA schools, When they start to actually apply some smarts in these decisions, they'll realize that they'll get more bang for the their buck by getting rid of schools rather than adding them (Notre Dame notwithstanding). The most profitable athletic departments could leave to make their own super league of the top 12 or whatever Same diff, in my book. Certain schools no longer associating with or splitting money equally with schools they once did.
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Post by mplsgopher on Jul 4, 2024 7:53:31 GMT -5
UNC has already indicated in different ways they’re looking for an exit. What makes you say this? And do you mean after 2036 or before?
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Post by mplsgopher on Jul 4, 2024 7:56:34 GMT -5
Fair enough, nobody knows for sure what will happen then. If UNC and UVA want to keep having their traditional conference that they've always had since the beginning of the ACC, it'll stay. If they want to become the next Marylands in the Big Ten, they'll join the Big Ten.
I think you’re talking about two very different athletic departments. First, Maryland and Rutgers wouldn’t get the Big Ten invite in today’s climate. TV markets don’t really matter, it’s about who will draw the most viewers for marquee matchups on Saturday afternoons. Carolina is one of the biggest brands in college athletics. They’ll get a Big Ten invitation AND they’ll be successful. I highly doubt Virginia would get an invitation because they just don’t have that sort of appeal and their football is tragic. The Big Ten is still only going to invite programs who increase their per-school payout. And at this point, that means the school has to be VERY valuable. I don't think I see much evidence that UNC football is significantly, if any, better than Maryland football historically.
Feel free to disagree.
Obviously they'd do great in basketball. I personally still think that non-football sports and local/state market matter. Hence why I still like the addition of Rutgers and Maryland, and why shoring up the DC and NOVA markets, along with fantastic academic reputation and decent research, should (for me) warrant UVA an invite.
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