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Post by coahc21 on Nov 10, 2023 14:21:16 GMT -5
I do not know who that 8th team in Region 8 is, but my best guess is Platteville. I think they hang out a while with only 2-4 against ranked opponents and block those other Region 8 teams... If that happens, it opens the door for some other regions. Upon further exam....I think Millikin is probably the next team from Region 8, followed by Platteville, Eau Claire, and Carthage...but again, this is just a guess, and then my bracketology computing came up with this (assuming the highest remaining seeds win their tournaments): This assuming a couple of swaps due to recent results in rankings, namely Williams jumps over Colby, Ramapo jumps over Kean. Pool C: 1. NYU 2. Whitewater 3. MIT 4. Wash U 5. Babson 6. Salisbury 7. Gettysburg 8. Middlebury 9. Transylvania 10. UW Stevens Point 11. Calvin 12. Carnegie Mellon 13. Millikin 14. Tufts 15. Franklin & Marshall 16. LaVerne 17. Christopher Newport 18. Williams 19. Virginia Wesleyan 20. Ohio Wesleyan 21. Case Western First 4 out: Mount Union UW Platteville St. Olaf UW Eau Claire Again, this is taking some assumptions into account...I reserve the right to tweak Sunday night! |
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Post by tmb on Nov 11, 2023 4:22:16 GMT -5
I'm sure this won't format right but pulled from Rich Kern latest results and congrats to those advancing
Home W Berry Rhodes 25-16, 25-15, 22-25, 25-13
Neutral W Calvin Albion 25-22, 18-25, 25-22, 25-16
Neutral W Case Western Reserve Washington University (MO) 25-23, 25-19, 25-12
Neutral W Centre Oglethorpe 25-15, 25-13, 25-14
Neutral W Chicago Carnegie Mellon 26-24, 19-25, 25-22, 26-24
Neutral W Colorado College Southwestern 25-27, 23-25, 25-17, 25-21, 16-14
Neutral W Colorado College Texas Lutheran 25-21, 25-15, 27-25
Home W Cornell College Grinnell 25-13, 25-13, 25-23
Home W Cortland SUNY Brockport 27-25, 25-11, 20-25, 25-19
Home W Covenant Berea 25-21, 25-17, 25-15
Home W DePauw Hiram 25-10, 25-9, 25-11
Neutral W East Texas Baptist Howard Payne 25-10, 25-10, 25-17
Home W Emory Chicago 25-20, 25-15, 27-25
Home W Emory Rochester-NY 25-18, 25-12, 25-17
Neutral W George Fox Whitworth 20-25, 25-18, 25-19, 27-25
Home W Gettysburg Franklin & Marshall 25-18, 17-25, 20-25, 25-20, 15-10
Neutral W Hendrix Birmingham-Southern 25-20, 25-19, 16-25, 25-21
Home W Hope Adrian 25-15, 25-14, 25-12
Neutral W Hunter John Jay 25-10, 25-15, 17-25, 25-20
Neutral W Illinois College Lake Forest 25-18, 25-21, 25-12
Home W Ithaca Vassar 25-11, 24-26, 25-16, 25-15
Home W Johns Hopkins Swarthmore 25-21, 25-19, 25-18
Neutral W Lyon Bay Path 25-16, 25-9, 27-25
Neutral W Lyon Salem University 9-25, 25-22, 26-24, 25-18
Home W Mary Hardin-Baylor Hardin-Simmons 25-19, 25-15, 26-24
Away W Maryville College (TN) Huntingdon 25-18, 25-14, 29-31, 13-25, 15-10
Neutral W New Paltz Geneseo 25-18, 25-18, 25-17
Neutral W New York University Brandeis 25-11, 35-33, 25-21
Neutral W New York University Case Western Reserve 25-14, 25-18, 33-31
Home W Pacific Lutheran Willamette 25-17, 25-13, 25-23
Home W Salisbury Christopher Newport 25-23, 25-23, 19-25, 25-21
Neutral W Schreiner St. Thomas-TX 25-23, 17-25, 21-25, 25-17, 16-14
Neutral W Sewanee Millsaps 23-25, 25-21, 25-20, 25-22
Neutral W Trinity University (TX) Schreiner 25-21, 25-16, 25-17
Neutral W UC Santa Cruz Pratt Institute 25-19, 25-14, 25-11
Home W Wesleyan University (CT) Bowdoin 25-16, 25-22, 24-26, 25-22
Neutral W William Smith Clarkson 27-25, 25-20, 25-21
Away W Williams Tufts 25-20, 25-22, 25-19
Neutral W Wittenberg Ohio Wesleyan 25-12, 29-31, 25-23, 25-22
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 11, 2023 5:32:05 GMT -5
Sat Top 100. About 37 finals today with the rest tomorrow. The pool C music is playing get ready to grab a chair. Time zone?? Updated start time? Double check your matches of interest. Thank You richkern.com for the schedule data. |
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 11, 2023 7:21:59 GMT -5
Nov 10 results saw 1 change to my list on page 20, Franklin & Marshall(lost 5 set battle with Gettysburg) out and St. Benedict in.
My program does not like the NESCAC at all this year and does not see them getting a bid.
I think St. Olaf is a lock. I have them 3rd off the board after NYU and Whitewater. their head to head compare easily beats any of the NESCAC schools.
Chris Newport is an interesting case but the massive number of ranked losses(12 after yesterday) keeps them out.
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Post by coahc21 on Nov 11, 2023 8:17:12 GMT -5
Nov 10 results saw 1 change to my list on page 20, Franklin & Marshall(lost 5 set battle with Gettysburg) out and St. Benedict in. My program does not like the NESCAC at all this year and does not see them getting a bid. I think St. Olaf is a lock. I have them 3rd off the board after NYU and Whitewater. their head to head compare easily beats any of the NESCAC schools. Chris Newport is an interesting case but the massive number of ranked losses(12 after yesterday) keeps them out. Olaf's SOS is atrocious..I have them on the bubble and maybe get them in after the dust settles today and tomorrow, but I can't imagine they're that quickly off the board. 7 ranked wins are nice, but a bunch in the 5-7 range, whereas Tufts, for example, has 6 ranked wins, two of which are against 1's. |
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Post by jammaster on Nov 11, 2023 21:20:49 GMT -5
In the NEWMAC, Springfield defeated Coast Guard Academy in 4 and MIT defeated Babson in 4.
If you have never seen a match at Springfield, the ceiling is low with a crazy number of steel beams to get the ball into on high passes. It's like volleyball meets plinko...
Tomorrow back to the plinko dome.
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Post by noreaster on Nov 11, 2023 22:14:53 GMT -5
Nov 10 results saw 1 change to my list on page 20, Franklin & Marshall(lost 5 set battle with Gettysburg) out and St. Benedict in. My program does not like the NESCAC at all this year and does not see them getting a bid. I think St. Olaf is a lock. I have them 3rd off the board after NYU and Whitewater. their head to head compare easily beats any of the NESCAC schools. Chris Newport is an interesting case but the massive number of ranked losses(12 after yesterday) keeps them out. Olaf's SOS is atrocious..I have them on the bubble and maybe get them in after the dust settles today and tomorrow, but I can't imagine they're that quickly off the board. 7 ranked wins are nice, but a bunch in the 5-7 range, whereas Tufts, for example, has 6 ranked wins, two of which are against 1's. Their SOS was .548 which is low but not impossible, and wins over 1's and 2's are hard to come by so I respcet that St. Olaf has a win vs Northwestern, and personally I like the Stevens Point win so I don't have a problem with their ranked wins, I'd be more concerned about their 6 unranked losses being an issue for them. Currently St. Olaf is up in the 5th so it may not matter. Similar note, I think LaVerne has a big problem with a .533 winning % and 3 ranked wins. They picked up a ranked win over Poly Pomonas and they get an SOS bump from PP and CMS but it's going to be close and they could block other teams |
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Post by gopherfan22 on Nov 11, 2023 23:16:36 GMT -5
Gustavus wins in a 5 set thriller.
Oshkosh gets their first loss in a sweep by Whitewater.
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Post by jcvball22 on Nov 11, 2023 23:46:55 GMT -5
Gustavus wins in a 5 set thriller. Oshkosh gets their first loss in a sweep by Whitewater. Woah. Did not have Oshkosh losing on my bingo card… |
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 12, 2023 6:32:30 GMT -5
Last Top 100 post of the season. NCAAs here we come! 5 finals in total today. The 6 schools below are all in A or C. The only upset watch would be Berry vs Sewanee. Get past that one and no consolation bids. Time zone?? Updated start time? Double check your matches of interest. Thank You richkern.com for the schedule data. |
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Post by noreaster on Nov 12, 2023 8:31:18 GMT -5
I was going to say that Washington and Lee beating Va Wesleyan is the only upset that I see shrinking the bubble... but I'm not sure I see Va Wesleyan getting in. At first glance I think the tournaments have shaped up pretty well for the bubble teams. No real harm done.
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Post by noreaster on Nov 12, 2023 12:54:14 GMT -5
Using last weeks rankings - because 1-2 matches at this point generally won't overturn the previous 30 - and without the updated win % and SOS in most cases, I came up with this...
1 Oshkosh
2 Emory
3 Mary Washington
4 MIT
5 Calvin
6 Carnegie
7 Wash U
8 Transylvania
9 Babson
10 Gettysburg
11 UW Stevens Point
12 Middlebury
13 F&M
14 UW Platteville
15 Case Western
16 Tufts
17 Christopher Newport
18 Stockton
19 Millikin
20 Colby
21 Va Wesleyan
Williams may jump Colby and I have no problem with them in that spot but I don't see both getting in.
If you like Laverne more than Va Wesleyan (and they have a win over Carthage who could be on the board at that point), I can see that but the .533 SOS was so low and I'm not sure I see it coming up 15 points in one week.
St. Olaf and Eau Clare with 6 unranked losses was too much for me - Colorado and Carthage with 5 in the same boat. Kean, Coast Guard and Swarthmore were maybe a match or two away.
I don't like the number of UAA or NESCAC teams in and I wonder if some positions get swapped despite the numbers but this is what I see in the numbers I had. I'm almost sure I'll have 2-3 wrong but we'll see tomorrow.
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Post by coahc21 on Nov 12, 2023 13:37:32 GMT -5
I think we are closer than we were Friday....and now we have flipped on St. Olaf feelings haha....I am not dinging teams for a lot of ranked losses and focusing more on the ranked win number. I am not as high on Mary Wash bc many of their ranked wins are repeats, and I don't like F&M due to all their ranked wins coming largely from Region IV which is very weak. For the same reason I don't like Stockton. And I have Millikin in front of Platteville, but they both get in I think. This is what I have:
1 OshKosh
2 Emory
3 MIT
4 Wash U
5 Transy
6 Middlebury
7 Calvin
8 CMU
9 UMW
10 Gettysburg
11 Stevens Pt
12 Babson
13 CWRU
14 St Olaf
15 Millikin
16 Tufts
17 Williams
18 La Verne
19 UW Platteville
20 Colby
21 UW Eau Claire
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Post by noreaster on Nov 12, 2023 14:35:52 GMT -5
I am not dinging teams for a lot of ranked losses and focusing more on the ranked win number. Just to be clear, I'm not dinging teams on ranked losses. I'm dinging them on unranked losses. Losing matches to teams not in the NCAAs list of 70. |
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Post by noreaster on Nov 12, 2023 14:40:02 GMT -5
Looking at bracketing...
Fun fact - Alfred is 498 miles from Hope per the NCAA mileage caclulator. Alfred State is 503.
So despite being in the same town, one can be sent to Hope and the other (should they beat Altoona) should not be. Given the strength in the midwest I'd anticipate a few teams being shipped west if possible so that result could be important.
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