|
|
Post by bbg95 on Nov 27, 2023 11:59:03 GMT -5
I've been wondering this myself. They should be a case study on how to best game the RPI. Beat teams with a lot of wins. Don't lose to teams that don't have a lot of wins I understand how RPI works. But it's hard to have an RPI that good when you only play seven teams in the RPI top 100. |
|
|
|
Post by donut on Nov 27, 2023 12:00:07 GMT -5
Also, you have to totally be convinced now the committee does not re-structure brackets and heavily depends on everything besides the last week. The data that the committee cited (yet again) was from old RPI's, not updated ones and their bracket movements make sense with the manual adjustments theory, yet again. As a staunch SEC defender, I do think this is the only explanation for Arkansas's and Tennessee's seeds. |
|
|
|
Post by 25or624 on Nov 27, 2023 12:01:26 GMT -5
I've been wondering this myself. They should be a case study on how to best game the RPI. Beat teams with a lot of wins. Don't lose to teams that don't have a lot of wins There you go, just that simple; no Ph.D thesis minutiae level detail required. Case study proving the point; Nebraska. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2023 12:01:43 GMT -5
Beat teams with a lot of wins. Don't lose to teams that don't have a lot of wins I understand how RPI works. But it's hard to have an RPI that good when you only play seven teams in the RPI top 100. this |
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,352 
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 27, 2023 12:01:47 GMT -5
How did SFA even get such a high rpi without playing anyone Here are teams with a similar w/l% for the season. RPI Rank in the front. 16. Western Kentucky - .879 35. Western Michigan - .906 36. Stephen F. Austin - .879 52. Yale - .875 65. Eastern Illinois - .875 84. Southeastern Louisiana - .875 95. The Citadel - .900 And here is the average of their opponent's w/l%. 16. Western Kentucky - .566 35. Western Michigan - .483 36. Stephen F. Austin - .512 52. Yale - .497 65. Eastern Illinois - .466 84. Southeastern Louisiana - .433 95. The Citadel - .403 Looks like this good of a record with the opponents close to .500 will produce something close to #50 in RPI. SFA did a bit better than this. In addition - they had the 2nd highest opponent/opponent w/l% (from this group) which really helped them. It can be fairly easy to play (and beat) teams with a high w/l%, but finding those teams that aren't just able to get decent w/l% against teams with bad records isn't as easy. SFA thread that needle. SFA, Yale and The Citadel are the only teams to not get any bonus points off of wins. Western Kentucky was able to get a scheduling bonus (50% or more non conference matches with teams that finished in the top 75 RPI - unadjusted). |
|
trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 31,798
|
Post by trojansc on Nov 27, 2023 12:02:51 GMT -5
I've been wondering this myself. They should be a case study on how to best game the RPI. Sure. Schedule three Top 50 non-conference opponents and win 29 matches. Good luck to everybody trying to do that. For the record, I'm still not saying SFA should have gotten the last at large. But that formula is not exactly an easy way to game the RPI. You know that's not true. If SFA scheduled TCU, Texas A&M, and Minnesota (top 50 non-conference opponents), they would be sitting outside of the tournament right now. You could schedule five top 50 non-conference opponents and win close to 30 matches and still be left out. Their RPI/KPI also has them *barely* getting in. It's not like SFA was #30 in RPI. |
|
|
|
Post by bobinmd on Nov 27, 2023 12:04:26 GMT -5
A little help; thoughts on potential (or not) upsets - first round Minnesota over Utah State? Second round sc over Pittsburgh? Thanks in advance. B
|
|
|
|
Post by pepperbrooks on Nov 27, 2023 12:10:19 GMT -5
How did SFA even get such a high rpi without playing anyone Here are teams with a similar w/l% for the season. RPI Rank in the front. 16. Western Kentucky - .879 35. Western Michigan - .906 36. Stephen F. Austin - .879 52. Yale - .875 65. Eastern Illinois - .875 84. Southeastern Louisiana - .875 95. The Citadel - .900 And here is the average of their opponent's w/l%. 16. Western Kentucky - .566 35. Western Michigan - .483 36. Stephen F. Austin - .512 52. Yale - .497 65. Eastern Illinois - .466 84. Southeastern Louisiana - .433 95. The Citadel - .403 Looks like this good of a record with the opponents close to .500 will produce something close to #50 in RPI. SFA did a bit better than this. In addition - they had the 2nd highest opponent/opponent w/l% (from this group) which really helped them. It can be fairly easy to play (and beat) teams with a high w/l%, but finding those teams that aren't just able to get decent w/l% against teams with bad records isn't as easy. SFA thread that needle. SFA, Yale and The Citadel are the only teams to not get any bonus points off of wins. Western Kentucky was able to get a scheduling bonus (50% or more non conference matches with teams that finished in the top 75 RPI - unadjusted). Have you looked at UMBC? That's the weird one for me. |
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,352
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 27, 2023 12:14:17 GMT -5
A little help; thoughts on potential (or not) upsets - first round Minnesota over Utah State? Second round sc over Pittsburgh? Thanks in advance. B Should have Pablo probabilities this afternoon - which would give us a starting point for these discussions. I would expect Minnesota to be a favorite against Utah State, maybe just a small favorite. They would have been at a 57% chance of winning going into last week, but Utah State took a hit. Pittsburgh is around an 80% chance of winning favorite over USC - that would be a rather big upset for USC. |
|
trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 31,798
|
Post by trojansc on Nov 27, 2023 12:16:12 GMT -5
Also, you have to totally be convinced now the committee does not re-structure brackets and heavily depends on everything besides the last week. The data that the committee cited (yet again) was from old RPI's, not updated ones and their bracket movements make sense with the manual adjustments theory, yet again. As a staunch SEC defender, I do think this is the only explanation for Arkansas's and Tennessee's seeds. This is not hard. They don't need to put half of the effort I put into it. But then when I complain, people will say that these are 'great' advocates of the sport and that it is not right for me to attack their character. Give me a break. Holly did OK in explaining GA Tech/Florida and Pitt/Louisville, her Pitt/Louisville explanation was pretty close to how I saw it. I'm just stunned that when she mentioned Top 25 or Top 50 wins plus the strong non-conference, etc. none of that came up with at-larges. How do you go on a national broadcast and not even MENTION the at-large teams? It's an injustice to the teams that tuned into the broadcast. I actually feel for NC State. They had a KPI above Stephen F. Austin. They beat Louisville. Give them an explanation. |
|
trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 31,798
|
Post by trojansc on Nov 27, 2023 12:26:56 GMT -5
RPI-Jumpers in the past ~ 20 years... 20 spots is not unprecedented (completely!), and even double-digits have happened in the past few years.
Kentucky jumped 22 (2005)
Illinois State jumped 15 (2007)
Miami-FL jumped 14 spots (2013)
Michigan State jumped 12 spots (2015)
LMU jumped 11 spots (2018)
Illinois jumped 13 spots (2019)
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,352
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 27, 2023 12:27:26 GMT -5
Have you looked at UMBC? That's the weird one for me. They had a really good RPI schedule. Their average opponent w/l% was .592. They had few bad opponents on their non-con schedule - and no outright stinkers. Virginia (.370), Sacred Heart (.462) and Seton Hall (.500) were their worst ones. Actually - the Virginia match hurt them - they lost the match and that was the worst record team they played. The rest of their losses were against high w/l% teams (High Point, JMU, Penn State, Pittsburgh). Ohio was their only T100 win - but Fairfield and Princeton have nice records and the rest were decent. Then you have just 10 conference matches in the America East. Get 2 matches in the tournament against high w/l% opponents. |
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,352
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 27, 2023 12:30:09 GMT -5
Conference w/l% of opponents.
Florida State - .565
Nebraska - .561
UMBC - .551
Western Kentucky - .520
Hawaii - .499
Dayton - 494
Nebraska and Florida State is on the low end for a P5 conference team. UMBC is close to them - and beats the heck out of just about every non p5 conference team.
|
|
|
|
Post by donut on Nov 27, 2023 12:30:39 GMT -5
Have you looked at UMBC? That's the weird one for me. They had a really good RPI schedule. Their average opponent w/l% was .592. They had few bad opponents on their non-con schedule - and no outright stinkers. Virginia (.370), Sacred Heart (.462) and Seton Hall (.500) were their worst ones. Actually - the Virginia match hurt them - they lost the match and that was the worst record team they played. The rest of their losses were against high w/l% teams (High Point, JMU, Penn State, Pittsburgh). Ohio was their only T100 win - but Fairfield and Princeton have nice records and the rest were decent. Then you have just 10 conference matches in the America East. Get 2 matches in the tournament against high w/l% opponents. UMBC is an automatic qualifier y'all. |
|
|
|
Post by n00b on Nov 27, 2023 12:35:19 GMT -5
Sure. Schedule three Top 50 non-conference opponents and win 29 matches. Good luck to everybody trying to do that. For the record, I'm still not saying SFA should have gotten the last at large. But that formula is not exactly an easy way to game the RPI. You know that's not true. If SFA scheduled TCU, Texas A&M, and Minnesota (top 50 non-conference opponents), they would be sitting outside of the tournament right now. You could schedule five top 50 non-conference opponents and win close to 30 matches and still be left out. Their RPI/KPI also has them *barely* getting in. It's not like SFA was #30 in RPI. One of those three was 16-12 Baylor! But I agree. My point was that using SFA’s resume as some sort of example of unlocking the RPI code isn’t really true, I don’t think. You’re giving yourself an EXTREMELY narrow path to having a good RPI. Unless you are Western Kentucky or Dayton, you probably shouldn’t count on going undefeated in conference. |
|
