2023 NCAA Volleyball Selection Show

[bobinmd]

Nov 27, 2023 12:14:17 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 27, 2023 12:04:26 GMT -5 bobinmd said:

A little help; thoughts on potential (or not) upsets - first round Minnesota over Utah State? Second round sc over Pittsburgh? Thanks in advance. B

Should have Pablo probabilities this afternoon - which would give us a starting point for these discussions.

I would expect Minnesota to be a favorite against Utah State, maybe just a small favorite.  They would have been at a 57% chance of winning going into last week, but Utah State took a hit.

Pittsburgh is around an 80% chance of winning favorite over USC - that would be a rather big upset for USC.

Thank you.  B

[bluepenquin]

Sun Belt does well - conference average w/l% of opponent.

Coast Carolina - .604
South Alabama - .590
James Madison - .585
Texas State - .581

There is probably only a handful of teams that are up there with Coastal Carolina. (Texas - .602, Stanford .608, Kentucky - 636, Pitt - .598, Louisville - .622)

[bluepenquin]

Nov 27, 2023 12:30:39 GMT -5 donut said:

Nov 27, 2023 12:27:26 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

They had a really good RPI schedule.  Their average opponent w/l% was .592.  

They had few bad opponents on their non-con schedule - and no outright stinkers.  Virginia (.370), Sacred Heart (.462) and Seton Hall (.500) were their worst ones.  

Actually - the Virginia match hurt them - they lost the match and that was the worst record team they played.  The rest of their losses were against high w/l% teams (High Point, JMU, Penn State, Pittsburgh).  Ohio was their only T100 win - but Fairfield and Princeton have nice records and the rest were decent.

Then you have just 10 conference matches in the America East.  Get 2 matches in the tournament against high w/l% opponents. 

UMBC is an automatic qualifier y'all.

So - they have a T50 RPI that is a headscratcher.  And an RPI that is providing some nice bonus points to other teams.

[trojansc]

Nov 27, 2023 12:35:19 GMT -5 n00b said:

One of those three was 16-12 Baylor!

But I agree. My point was that using SFA’s resume as some sort of example of unlocking the RPI code isn’t really true, I don’t think. You’re giving yourself an EXTREMELY narrow path to having a good RPI. Unless you are Western Kentucky or Dayton, you probably shouldn’t count on going undefeated in conference.

Someone tweeted out that Debbie Humphrey's told someone in the WAC they would never get an at-large bid, ever. It seems like she wasn't scheduling to do so - nor did she think it was in the realm of possibility. I'm not saying that doesn't mean she shouldn't ever get one - but clearly this is an anomaly and the committee should have viewed it as so.

But SFA is not unique. There is a similar team to them almost every single year (High Point, Denver, Stephen F. Austin, FGCU, Rice, South Dakota). It's arbitrary as to whether the committee puts them in or not. It seems like they should explain that, but, only one committee ever has, and they explicitly said it was because South Dakota didn't beat anyone.

Our sport is getting too big for bid throwaways to keep happening.

[n00b]

Nov 27, 2023 12:16:12 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 27, 2023 12:00:07 GMT -5 donut said:

As a staunch SEC defender, I do think this is the only explanation for Arkansas's and Tennessee's seeds.

This is not hard. They don't need to put half of the effort I put into it.

But then when I complain, people will say that these are 'great' advocates of the sport and that it is not right for me to attack their character. Give me a break.

Holly did OK in explaining GA Tech/Florida and Pitt/Louisville, her Pitt/Louisville explanation was pretty close to how I saw it. I'm just stunned that when she mentioned Top 25 or Top 50 wins plus the strong non-conference, etc. none of that came up with at-larges. How do you go on a national broadcast and not even MENTION the at-large teams? It's an injustice to the teams that tuned into the broadcast.

I actually feel for NC State. They had a KPI above Stephen F. Austin. They beat Louisville. Give them an explanation.

For the record, that comment was only in reference to the specific scenario where the committee internally believed that Team A was better/more deserving than Team B, but they awarded a seed or tournament berth to Team B out of bracket convenience.

I have no issue saying the committee got things wrong due to incompetence or laziness.

[trojansc]

Nov 27, 2023 12:47:09 GMT -5 n00b said:

For the record, that comment was only in reference to the specific scenario where the committee internally believed that Team A was better/more deserving than Team B, but they awarded a seed or tournament berth to Team B out of bracket convenience.

I have no issue saying the committee got things wrong due to incompetence or laziness.

It wasn't just about you, for the record. There are posters every year saying that these people are great advocates to the sport and we are too hard on them.

But, the committee could get things wrong due to incompetence, laziness, or even character issues and that's hard to prove (and it makes it even worse when they don't defend their decisions). Do we really know if SFA's regional advisory committee member or Ball State's presence last year didn't factor in?

[n00b]

Nov 27, 2023 12:51:23 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 27, 2023 12:47:09 GMT -5 n00b said:

For the record, that comment was only in reference to the specific scenario where the committee internally believed that Team A was better/more deserving than Team B, but they awarded a seed or tournament berth to Team B out of bracket convenience.

I have no issue saying the committee got things wrong due to incompetence or laziness.

It wasn't just about you, for the record. There are posters every year saying that these people are great advocates to the sport and we are too hard on them.

But, the committee could get things wrong due to incompetence, laziness, or even character issues and that's hard to prove (and it makes it even worse when they don't defend their decisions). Do we really know if SFA's regional advisory committee member or Ball State's presence last year didn't factor in?

I’m not as sold on the regional advisory committee part. The point of those are to have every conference represented. So every team in the country gets at least a bit of narrative and insight. I’d think SFA would get that whether it’s Debbie herself or a different random WAC coach.

There was study done in men’s basketball about affiliations of committee members and it did make an effect on selections. I don’t think there is anything intentionally nefarious going on. But I do think that they are humans in the selection room and the other committee members will naturally look at those teams slightly differently.

[n00b]

Nov 27, 2023 12:51:23 GMT -5 trojansc said:

[(and it makes it even worse when they don't defend their decisions)

To me, this is a BIG part of the reason of why it’s not getting better. If this were the CFP Selection Show or Men’s Basketball, the question would’ve been asked directly. “SFA has zero Top 70 wins. How are they more deserving than Kansas State or NC State?” And if she gave a non-answer, they would press her.

[trojansc]

Nov 27, 2023 13:00:06 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 27, 2023 12:51:23 GMT -5 trojansc said:

[(and it makes it even worse when they don't defend their decisions)

To me, this is a BIG part of the reason of why it’s not getting better. If this were the CFP Selection Show or Men’s Basketball, the question would’ve been asked directly. “SFA has zero Top 70 wins. How are they more deserving than Kansas State or NC State?” And if she gave a non-answer, they would press her.

Correct. So whose gonna speak up? Are coaches afraid or intimidated? Is it a media outlet?

Should DBK or Dan Fisher take a shot at the SFA resume for the sake of NC State and Duke?

[bbg95]

Nov 27, 2023 13:02:47 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 27, 2023 13:00:06 GMT -5 n00b said:

To me, this is a BIG part of the reason of why it’s not getting better. If this were the CFP Selection Show or Men’s Basketball, the question would’ve been asked directly. “SFA has zero Top 70 wins. How are they more deserving than Kansas State or NC State?” And if she gave a non-answer, they would press her.

Correct. So whose gonna speak up? Are coaches afraid or intimidated? Is it a media outlet?

Should DBK or Dan Fisher take a shot at the SFA resume for the sake of NC State and Duke?

Frankly, I think the hosts of the selection show have to do it during the interview with the chair.

[n00b]

Nov 27, 2023 13:05:06 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Nov 27, 2023 13:02:47 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Correct. So whose gonna speak up? Are coaches afraid or intimidated? Is it a media outlet?

Should DBK or Dan Fisher take a shot at the SFA resume for the sake of NC State and Duke?

Frankly, I think the hosts of the selection show have to do it during the interview with the chair.

Agreed. I imagine the ESPN selection show is the chair’s only obligated interview. If Lee became super hard hitting at VolleyballMag, they could easily decline his Zoom in future years.

[trojansc]

K-State's Pablo was top 25, or borderline right? (idk if it updated)

n00b if you think that was a unique resume for Penn State that year, how do they not consider it now? Especially with K-State's high-profile wins. What was SFA in Pablo? Massey says SFA is #53 (#61 in power).

[midnightblue]

Nov 27, 2023 13:10:07 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 27, 2023 13:05:06 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Frankly, I think the hosts of the selection show have to do it during the interview with the chair.

Agreed. I imagine the ESPN selection show is the chair’s only obligated interview. If Lee became super hard hitting at VolleyballMag, they could easily decline his Zoom in future years.

Another thing to keep in mind is the media platform in question. Like was said, if this was Football or Basketball selections and there were really polarizing or absurd selections, ESPN would go for broke at the committee chair because that would be great for business.

Volleyball? Keep it cute and keep it moving, unfortunately.

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 27, 2023 13:02:47 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 27, 2023 13:00:06 GMT -5 n00b said:

To me, this is a BIG part of the reason of why it’s not getting better. If this were the CFP Selection Show or Men’s Basketball, the question would’ve been asked directly. “SFA has zero Top 70 wins. How are they more deserving than Kansas State or NC State?” And if she gave a non-answer, they would press her.

Correct. So whose gonna speak up? Are coaches afraid or intimidated? Is it a media outlet?

Should DBK or Dan Fisher take a shot at the SFA resume for the sake of NC State and Duke?

There are more coaches that stand to benefit from Committee shenanigans than those that don't benefit (and frankly, it's completely immaterial to 2/3 - maybe 3/4 of D-I).. So they can go and say: "We polled the coaches, and they're fine with it"

[VballObssessed]

So are we just not going to address the lack of diversity in the selection committee and on the selection show? Lacking in ethnicity, gender (no men), even generation. It's given mean girls club for a number of years now.