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Post by n00b on Jun 12, 2024 20:33:00 GMT -5
ok, here is my preliminary assessment of the non-conference so far. IMO The goal is for the ocllective conference to be at an 80% winning percentage or higher to maximize bids to the tournament this year. Given that, below are the Big 10 teams and their scheduled non-conference opponents where I think the Big 10 team stands a lower than 60% change of winning. This isn't a prediction, per say, this is based on the general fundamentals of how good the teams were last year, who is returning, when and where the match is being played, etc. (this is in order of how they appear on the excel 2024 VB schedule for the Big 10 tab) Nebraska (1): @ Louisville Wisconsin (2) : @ Louisville, Texas Oregon (2): Pitt, @ Colorado State Penn State (2): Louisville, @ Pitt Purdue (3): Kansas State, @ Kansas, Creighton Minnesota (4): Stanford, Texas, TCU, Baylor USC (5): @ Pepperdine, @ Pepperdine, @ Creighton, Kansas State, Pitt UCLA (0) Indiana (1): @ Texas Washington (2): Georgia, @ Colorado Ohio State (2): @ Dayton, @ Florida Illinois (3): @ Iowa State, Dayton, Marquette Northwestern (0) Michigan State (6): @ Colorado State, Florida, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, @ Duke, @ North Carolina Maryland (1): @ LSU Michigan (3): Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, @ Duke Rutgers (3): Miami-FL, Colorado, @ Arkansas Iowa...mmmmm, hard to gauge, especially if Moravec isn't coming back From a pure scheduling perspective, so far the two eye rolls go to Michigan State and USC. Based on the scheduling spreadsheet posted by NCAAVBScores Twitter account and final 2023 Pablo Ratings, the current projected non-conference winning percentages are: 0.697 SEC 0.689 Big 12 0.650 Big Ten 0.637 ACC |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Jun 12, 2024 20:48:19 GMT -5
ok, here is my preliminary assessment of the non-conference so far. IMO The goal is for the ocllective conference to be at an 80% winning percentage or higher to maximize bids to the tournament this year. Given that, below are the Big 10 teams and their scheduled non-conference opponents where I think the Big 10 team stands a lower than 60% change of winning. This isn't a prediction, per say, this is based on the general fundamentals of how good the teams were last year, who is returning, when and where the match is being played, etc. (this is in order of how they appear on the excel 2024 VB schedule for the Big 10 tab) Nebraska (1): @ Louisville Wisconsin (2) : @ Louisville, Texas Oregon (2): Pitt, @ Colorado State Penn State (2): Louisville, @ Pitt Purdue (3): Kansas State, @ Kansas, Creighton Minnesota (4): Stanford, Texas, TCU, Baylor USC (5): @ Pepperdine, @ Pepperdine, @ Creighton, Kansas State, Pitt UCLA (0) Indiana (1): @ Texas Washington (2): Georgia, @ Colorado Ohio State (2): @ Dayton, @ Florida Illinois (3): @ Iowa State, Dayton, Marquette Northwestern (0) Michigan State (6): @ Colorado State, Florida, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, @ Duke, @ North Carolina Maryland (1): @ LSU Michigan (3): Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, @ Duke Rutgers (3): Miami-FL, Colorado, @ Arkansas Iowa...mmmmm, hard to gauge, especially if Moravec isn't coming back From a pure scheduling perspective, so far the two eye rolls go to Michigan State and USC. I know they can't pass but it's wild to say BYU has a lesser chance of beating Oregon than CSU. |
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Post by ay2013 on Jun 12, 2024 21:10:38 GMT -5
ok, here is my preliminary assessment of the non-conference so far. IMO The goal is for the ocllective conference to be at an 80% winning percentage or higher to maximize bids to the tournament this year. Given that, below are the Big 10 teams and their scheduled non-conference opponents where I think the Big 10 team stands a lower than 60% change of winning. This isn't a prediction, per say, this is based on the general fundamentals of how good the teams were last year, who is returning, when and where the match is being played, etc. (this is in order of how they appear on the excel 2024 VB schedule for the Big 10 tab) Nebraska (1): @ Louisville Wisconsin (2) : @ Louisville, Texas Oregon (2): Pitt, @ Colorado State Penn State (2): Louisville, @ Pitt Purdue (3): Kansas State, @ Kansas, Creighton Minnesota (4): Stanford, Texas, TCU, Baylor USC (5): @ Pepperdine, @ Pepperdine, @ Creighton, Kansas State, Pitt UCLA (0) Indiana (1): @ Texas Washington (2): Georgia, @ Colorado Ohio State (2): @ Dayton, @ Florida Illinois (3): @ Iowa State, Dayton, Marquette Northwestern (0) Michigan State (6): @ Colorado State, Florida, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, @ Duke, @ North Carolina Maryland (1): @ LSU Michigan (3): Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, @ Duke Rutgers (3): Miami-FL, Colorado, @ Arkansas Iowa...mmmmm, hard to gauge, especially if Moravec isn't coming back From a pure scheduling perspective, so far the two eye rolls go to Michigan State and USC. I know they can't pass but it's wild to say BYU has a lesser chance of beating Oregon than CSU. Well, it's week 2 @ a Colorado State team returning everyone. Oregon won't catch BYU in provo, and BYU is replacing their setter, libero, top scorer (by far), and second leading scorer....I'm not saying BYU can't or won't beat Oregon, but it's hard to look straight at the rosters year over year and not give Oregon a 60% chance or greater of winning. |
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Post by rollshotcornerpocket on Jun 12, 2024 21:54:34 GMT -5
In 2022 MSU had a late cycle coach retirement and had their program ransacked for parts in the height of the portal era picking up scraps from blown up programs and recruiting internationally just to pickup 12 players to field a team. The !!!!###$$$!!! you mean “expectations” lol they were projected to be competing with Iowa for last place. I mean USC and UO are good but I’m not buying Indiana and a 16-15 Washington team being better this year. Oh well 🤷 If you are saying that you think USC and Oregon will be as good or better this year than they were last year, and you don't think Indiana or Washington will be better this year than they were last year, I'd happily take that bet. I think this is less about whether or not I think Oregon or USC have done anything in the off season…..it’s more about how I think MSU is underrated at 13th out of 18 big ten teams considering they bring basically everyone back. Did I like miss huge news from Indiana or Washington this off season? Like what makes you think they’ll be better than last year? Lol |
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Post by bborr on Jun 12, 2024 22:14:55 GMT -5
Any schools with a distinct advantage or disadvantage with these schedules? The first thing I'd look at is who plays who twice. Each team plays three other teams twice and the rest only once. For example, Wisconsin plays Nebraska, Minnesota and Northwestern twice; Nebraska plays Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa twice. I'd say that might be a slight advantage to Nebraska. Then look at who has the tougher conference games (against teams they play once) on the road. Nebraska has Penn State, Oregon, and Ohio State on the road, while Wisconsin gets those three at home. Wisconsin has Purdue on the road while Nebraska gets Purdue at home. That suggests a slight advantage to Wisconsin on that metric. But overall a good job at balance w/I the conference. |
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Post by ay2013 on Jun 12, 2024 22:29:07 GMT -5
If you are saying that you think USC and Oregon will be as good or better this year than they were last year, and you don't think Indiana or Washington will be better this year than they were last year, I'd happily take that bet. I think this is less about whether or not I think Oregon or USC have done anything in the off season…..it’s more about how I think MSU is underrated at 13th out of 18 big ten teams considering they bring basically everyone back. Did I like miss huge news from Indiana or Washington this off season? Like what makes you think they’ll be better than last year? Lol Well, by your logic of bringing basically everyone back, I’d assume you agree that usually players end up being better year over year, right? Well, Washington only lost one starter and has replaced that starter with players who are just as offensively capable, if not better. Indiana is only replacing middles - a feature that they didn’t rely on winning many matches last year anyway. USC is losing its 6 points per set, .300 pin with nobody on the roster having shown any ability to replicate anything close to that, while Oregon is turning over their setter, libero, OH, and RS (though albeit with some talent). I agree that I expect MSU to be better this year on the whole. Let’s hope they come to that level of play sooner rather than later and not embarrass the conference with a lack luster non-conference record. |
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Post by surfvolleypolojock77 on Jun 12, 2024 22:42:09 GMT -5
Too bad that Stanford isn't part of this conference
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Post by gobruins on Jun 13, 2024 3:54:03 GMT -5
ok, here is my preliminary assessment of the non-conference so far. IMO The goal is for the ocllective conference to be at an 80% winning percentage or higher to maximize bids to the tournament this year. Given that, below are the Big 10 teams and their scheduled non-conference opponents where I think the Big 10 team stands a lower than 60% change of winning. This isn't a prediction, per say, this is based on the general fundamentals of how good the teams were last year, who is returning, when and where the match is being played, etc. (this is in order of how they appear on the excel 2024 VB schedule for the Big 10 tab) Nebraska (1): @ Louisville Wisconsin (2) : @ Louisville, Texas Oregon (2): Pitt, @ Colorado State Penn State (2): Louisville, @ Pitt Purdue (3): Kansas State, @ Kansas, Creighton Minnesota (4): Stanford, Texas, TCU, Baylor USC (5): @ Pepperdine, @ Pepperdine, @ Creighton, Kansas State, Pitt UCLA (0) Indiana (1): @ Texas Washington (2): Georgia, @ Colorado Ohio State (2): @ Dayton, @ Florida Illinois (3): @ Iowa State, Dayton, Marquette Northwestern (0) Michigan State (6): @ Colorado State, Florida, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, @ Duke, @ North Carolina Maryland (1): @ LSU Michigan (3): Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, @ Duke Rutgers (3): Miami-FL, Colorado, @ Arkansas Iowa...mmmmm, hard to gauge, especially if Moravec isn't coming back From a pure scheduling perspective, so far the two eye rolls go to Michigan State and USC. If you are interested in updating your list, UCLA is playing in a tournament at TCU on Sept. 12-13. Besides TCU, they play Texas A&M Commerce and Prairie View A&M. |
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Post by ay2013 on Jun 13, 2024 4:59:27 GMT -5
If you are interested in updating your list, UCLA is playing in a tournament at TCU on Sept. 12-13. Besides TCU, they play Texas A&M Commerce and Prairie View A&M. TCU is on 4 Big 10 teams non-conference slate. For christs sake, the conference needs an RPI intervention like yesterday. |
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Post by ted_heise on Jun 13, 2024 7:11:36 GMT -5
Maybe this is hopium and I know the Big 10 is really REALLY good year in and year out. But I think this team will surprise people. well played! |
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Post by bigredhimbo on Jun 13, 2024 9:02:37 GMT -5
Too bad that Stanford isn't part of this conference what a username |
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Post by lionsfan on Jun 13, 2024 20:36:51 GMT -5
PSU full schedule is out... ay2013, what percentage do you give PSU @ Tennessee to open the season?  |
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Post by knapplc on Jun 13, 2024 20:57:58 GMT -5
PSU full schedule is out... ay2013, what percentage do you give PSU @ Tennessee to open the season?  |
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Post by ay2013 on Jun 13, 2024 20:58:25 GMT -5
PSU full schedule is out... ay2013, what percentage do you give PSU @ Tennessee to open the season? PSU above a 60% of winning. Tennessee is turning over all of their pin offense and libero. We literally have no idea how Tennessee's passing rotation will look or if they can score out of systen. They may end up being a quality squad next season, but, on paper, I'm not seeing a team that beats Penn State very often. With that said, it IS the first match of the season, lots of stuff can happen. |
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Post by bigredhimbo on Jun 13, 2024 21:01:32 GMT -5
PSU full schedule is out... ay2013, what percentage do you give PSU @ Tennessee to open the season? PSU above a 60% of winning. Tennessee is turning over all of their pin offense and libero. They end up being a quality squad next season, but, on paper, I'm not seeing a team that beats Penn State very often. With that said, it IS the first match of the season, lots of stuff can happen. I hope Hayden plays. however she does, I hope she plays lol |
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