Big East 2024

[trojansc]

Oct 22, 2024 23:47:51 GMT -5 jackson5vb said:

So what does UConn need to do to get an at large bid?

If they won out or lose just once more and beat Marquette in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament that would probably have to be good enough. If they lose three more but beat Marquette in the semifinals - that's where it probably gets dicey.

IMO what's most important is they get a win over Marquette in the BE Tournament. I think it's better off for them to lose two more Big East matches (say to Villanova and St. John's) but beat Marquette in the BE Tournament rather than for UConn to win out - but lose again to Marquette in the BE Tournament.

bluepenquin - any takes on UConn? They are certainly an interesting case. The committee chair from the reveal seems to care about big wins for seeded teams - does that also apply to at-larges?

[hangonsloopy]

Oct 23, 2024 3:02:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 22, 2024 23:47:51 GMT -5 jackson5vb said:

So what does UConn need to do to get an at large bid?

If they won out or lose just once more and beat Marquette in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament that would probably have to be good enough. If they lose three more but beat Marquette in the semifinals - that's where it probably gets dicey.

IMO what's most important is they get a win over Marquette in the BE Tournament. I think it's better off for them to lose two more Big East matches (say to Villanova and St. John's) but beat Marquette in the BE Tournament rather than for UConn to win out - but lose again to Marquette in the BE Tournament.

bluepenquin - any takes on UConn? They are certainly an interesting case. The committee chair from the reveal seems to care about big wins for seeded teams - does that also apply to at-larges?

But we also have to keep in mind that taking losses to Villanova and St John’s could mean they don’t play Marquette in the BE semis as Villanova or DePaul might take over that #3 seed being right behind UConn right now. They’re in a very tricky situation.

[bluepenquin]

Oct 23, 2024 3:02:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 22, 2024 23:47:51 GMT -5 jackson5vb said:

So what does UConn need to do to get an at large bid?

If they won out or lose just once more and beat Marquette in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament that would probably have to be good enough. If they lose three more but beat Marquette in the semifinals - that's where it probably gets dicey.

IMO what's most important is they get a win over Marquette in the BE Tournament. I think it's better off for them to lose two more Big East matches (say to Villanova and St. John's) but beat Marquette in the BE Tournament rather than for UConn to win out - but lose again to Marquette in the BE Tournament.

bluepenquin - any takes on UConn? They are certainly an interesting case. The committee chair from the reveal seems to care about big wins for seeded teams - does that also apply to at-larges?

Yes - interesting case for sure.  No T50 wins - only 2 T50 teams on the schedule.  

Not counting the BE tournament - if they win out they will be in the low 30's in RPI.  1 more loss and they are in the mid 30's.  I kind of think that RPI will win out for this?  Beating Marquette in the BE tournament would be huge.  I wonder if the committee would look at this more favorably with the Big East - then they would for the Atlantic Sun or Atlantic 10?  

Pablo isn't big on UConn - so they think they have 2-3 more losses on their schedule.

[boxcariii]

UConn needs to win out and get one over Marquette/Creighton in the Big East semi finals. I have not been big on UConn all year due to the extremely weak non-conference. Don't get me wrong, it's great UConn won all those games and I'm happy for them, but this is the type of thing that should be discouraged too. Losing the wrong game(s) can tank your RPI as well due to this. 

I'm betting the matches Pablo thinks UConn can lose are at St. John's and at Villanova, both last weekend of the year. I'd also be weary of both matches left with Xavier.*

*After watching Xavier in person, despite the sweep, Xavier is a dangerous team and can play spoiler to anyone on any day. They were really good at keeping Creighton out of system, something both St. John's and UConn couldn't do. 

[trojansc]

Oct 23, 2024 7:10:36 GMT -5 hangonsloopy said:

But we also have to keep in mind that taking losses to Villanova and St John’s could mean they don’t play Marquette in the BE semis as Villanova or DePaul might take over that #3 seed being right behind UConn right now. They’re in a very tricky situation.

Meh. I don't really think this is likely at all.

Remember that UConn doesn't play Creighton/Marquette again and they are already above Villanova and DePaul. DePaul/Villanova already have 3 losses and still get Marquette/Creighton again - UConn has 2 and the favorable schedule remaining.

Villanova still has St. Johns(x2). UConn did barely get by St. John's this weekend - so I imagine that trip to Queens will be tough for them.

[boxcariii]

Oct 23, 2024 11:37:10 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 23, 2024 7:10:36 GMT -5 hangonsloopy said:

But we also have to keep in mind that taking losses to Villanova and St John’s could mean they don’t play Marquette in the BE semis as Villanova or DePaul might take over that #3 seed being right behind UConn right now. They’re in a very tricky situation.

Meh. I don't really think this is likely at all.

Remember that UConn doesn't play Creighton/Marquette again and they are already above Villanova and DePaul. DePaul/Villanova already have 3 losses and still get Marquette/Creighton again - UConn has 2 and the favorable schedule remaining.

Villanova still has St. Johns(x2). UConn did barely get by St. John's this weekend - so I imagine that trip to Queens will be tough for them.

The other thing is the BEast conference tournament is now 6 teams with the top 2 getting byes to the semis on Friday (likely Creighton and Marquette per the usual). Assuming UConn doesn't implode and still makes the tournament, and gets the Wednesday win, the reward is playing either Marquette or Creighton in the semis. 

I am not ruling out the possibility of UConn's season imploding as of today. In two weeks, if we're still talking about it, maybe I'll rule out the implosion scenario. 

[trojansc]

Oct 23, 2024 11:56:04 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

Oct 23, 2024 11:37:10 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Meh. I don't really think this is likely at all.

Remember that UConn doesn't play Creighton/Marquette again and they are already above Villanova and DePaul. DePaul/Villanova already have 3 losses and still get Marquette/Creighton again - UConn has 2 and the favorable schedule remaining.

Villanova still has St. Johns(x2). UConn did barely get by St. John's this weekend - so I imagine that trip to Queens will be tough for them.

The other thing is the BEast conference tournament is now 6 teams with the top 2 getting byes to the semis on Friday (likely Creighton and Marquette per the usual). Assuming UConn doesn't implode and still makes the tournament, and gets the Wednesday win, the reward is playing either Marquette or Creighton in the semis. 

I am not ruling out the possibility of UConn's season imploding as of today. In two weeks, if we're still talking about it, maybe I'll rule out the implosion scenario. 

I agree. UConn could completely implode. But they're the Big East only hope really for a 3rd team - and this would be a unique way. St. John's issue last year was their RPI was just outside the cut line. If St. John's was 30s in RPI last year - they 99.9% make the tournament IMO.

UConn's issue this year will be lack of wins - but if they lose enough of Big East play it won't matter anyways. The other issue I'm just not seeing is Creighton losing to a non-Marquette team. Like, stealing the Big East AQ, especially with Creighton playing up possibly for a regional if chaos does happen, I just can't see them blowing that.

Also, I wanted to respond to your other post re: Xavier - completely agree. They got St. John's in a mess early and were able to control that match. I felt like their non-conference was unfortunate, but they definitely weren't an awful team. St. John's getting swept was definitely surprising, but, I think people were viewing Xavier/Butler as equivalent after non-conf and that's definitely not the case.

[boxcariii]

Oct 23, 2024 12:11:40 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 23, 2024 11:56:04 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

The other thing is the BEast conference tournament is now 6 teams with the top 2 getting byes to the semis on Friday (likely Creighton and Marquette per the usual). Assuming UConn doesn't implode and still makes the tournament, and gets the Wednesday win, the reward is playing either Marquette or Creighton in the semis. 

I am not ruling out the possibility of UConn's season imploding as of today. In two weeks, if we're still talking about it, maybe I'll rule out the implosion scenario. 

I agree. UConn could completely implode. But they're the Big East only hope really for a 3rd team ...

I hope one day the Big East will consistently get 3 or even 4 teams in the tournament. I really don't think it's that difficult a conundrum. Put a few more dollars into the (comparatively) cheap sport and profit. Still, I'm not hanging my hopes on UConn this year being the beginning of any trend in that regard. 

[avid 2.0]

Marquette is playing princeton? thats odd.

[ndodge]

Oct 26, 2024 12:37:24 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

Marquette is playing princeton? thats odd.

And with an endline view on ESPN+ ! 

[trojansc]

Seton Hall has been scrappy this weekend!

[trojansc]

Oct 26, 2024 12:37:24 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

Marquette is playing princeton? thats odd.

Marquette was probably searching for a RPI gem. Princeton was 21-4 last year and has been a great W/L team in recent history. This year... not so much.

[voleiboluno]

DePaul beats UConn (3-1).

[hangonsloopy]

Oct 27, 2024 14:19:23 GMT -5 voleiboluno said:

DePaul beats UConn (3-1).

That gives DePaul sole possession of 3rd place to end the first round of league of play (pretty much where I and others here thought they would be before the season started but I wasn’t so sure if that will happen based on their up and down performances). The battle for third place should be an interesting one! UConn, Nova and Xavier (St John’s are kind of in the picture) are right behind. Though as I’ve been reminded (again because I keep forgetting lol) UConn doesn’t play Creighton/Maquette again which means they don’t get two extra losses to their record like those other teams will. They can afford maybe another head to head loss to one of those teams and still finish in 3rd place.

[avid 2.0]

Oct 27, 2024 14:34:15 GMT -5 hangonsloopy said:

Oct 27, 2024 14:19:23 GMT -5 voleiboluno said:

DePaul beats UConn (3-1).

That gives DePaul sole possession of 3rd place to end the first round of league of play (pretty much where I and others here thought they would be before the season started but I wasn’t so sure if that will happen based on their up and down performances). The battle for third place should be an interesting one! UConn, Nova and Xavier (St John’s are kind of in the picture) are right behind. Though as I’ve been reminded (again because I keep forgetting lol) UConn doesn’t play Creighton/Maquette again which means they don’t get two extra losses to their record like those other teams will. They can afford maybe another head to head loss to one of those teams and still finish in 3rd place.

Has anyone seen anything about the status of Werkmeister? 

UConn needs her if they're going to make a run into the BET