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Post by overonone on Feb 19, 2024 23:07:13 GMT -5
With Crabb/Brunner in the main draw - what are your thoughts on their pool? Norway, Boermans/deGroot, seed 14.
And looks likely that USA3 will meet USA4 in quali. I like Budinger/Evans over Tri/Chaim.
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Post by dunninla3 on Feb 20, 2024 0:56:52 GMT -5
With Crabb/Brunner in the main draw - what are your thoughts on their pool? Norway, Boermans/deGroot, seed 14. And looks likely that USA3 will meet USA4 in quali. I like Budinger/Evans over Tri/Chaim. If I'm reading the brackets correctly, after Mudinger beat Tri/Chaim, then beat CAN for entry into Pool, they would be placed in Pool B. to me, that's a decent Pool to be in, as I haven't been impressed with Brouwer/Meeuwsen in several years.
Treo are in MD, and if seeds hold would then get Perusic/Schweiner at the 4th team. That's a tougher advance than beating Brouwer/Meeuwsen is for Mudinger. I think Treo would be the least likely team to break that Pool.
So by my odds, Mudinger have about 33% chance of breaking Pool, and Treo maybe 25%.
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Post by overonone on Feb 26, 2024 17:17:05 GMT -5
With Crabb/Brunner in the main draw - what are your thoughts on their pool? Norway, Boermans/deGroot, seed 14. And looks likely that USA3 will meet USA4 in quali. I like Budinger/Evans over Tri/Chaim. If I'm reading the brackets correctly, after Mudinger beat Tri/Chaim, then beat CAN for entry into Pool, they would be placed in Pool B. to me, that's a decent Pool to be in, as I haven't been impressed with Brouwer/Meeuwsen in several years.
Treo are in MD, and if seeds hold would then get Perusic/Schweiner at the 4th team. That's a tougher advance than beating Brouwer/Meeuwsen is for Mudinger. I think Treo would be the least likely team to break that Pool.
So by my odds, Mudinger have about 33% chance of breaking Pool, and Treo maybe 25%.
What are your odds now? Quali match ups have changed. Tri/Chaim v Cubans: is that the right match up? |
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Post by dunninla3 on Feb 27, 2024 11:11:10 GMT -5
If I'm reading the brackets correctly, after Mudinger beat Tri/Chaim, then beat CAN for entry into Pool, they would be placed in Pool B. to me, that's a decent Pool to be in, as I haven't been impressed with Brouwer/Meeuwsen in several years.
Treo are in MD, and if seeds hold would then get Perusic/Schweiner at the 4th team. That's a tougher advance than beating Brouwer/Meeuwsen is for Mudinger. I think Treo would be the least likely team to break that Pool.
So by my odds, Mudinger have about 33% chance of breaking Pool, and Treo maybe 25%.
What are your odds now? Quali match ups have changed. Tri/Chaim v Cubans: is that the right match up? Ah, well, then Tri/Chaim should beat the Cubans (75%), then get AUS1, and that's a tough one b/c sometimes they play wild, sometimes in control. Still, I give them 65% to beat them. Then they go into Pool A, where they have a 50/50 vs. Ehlers/Wickler to advance.
Mudinger are probably 80% in rd. 1 of Quali, then face CAN and they should be 80% in that one as well. So Mudinger out of Pool is higher odds for sure. Then in Pool B, I would give them exactly the same chance of beating Brouwer/Meeuwsen as Tri/Chaim have of beating Ehlers/Wickler (assuming Tri/Chaim get to Pool). Which is about 33%.
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Post by guest2 on Feb 27, 2024 12:44:43 GMT -5
What are your odds now? Quali match ups have changed. Tri/Chaim v Cubans: is that the right match up? Ah, well, then Tri/Chaim should beat the Cubans (75%), then get AUS1, and that's a tough one b/c sometimes they play wild, sometimes in control. Still, I give them 65% to beat them. Then they go into Pool A, where they have a 50/50 vs. Ehlers/Wickler to advance. Mudinger are probably 80% in rd. 1 of Quali, then face CAN and they should be 80% in that one as well. So Mudinger out of Pool is higher odds for sure. Then in Pool B, I would give them exactly the same chance of beating Brouwer/Meeuwsen as Tri/Chaim have of beating Ehlers/Wickler (assuming Tri/Chaim get to Pool). Which is about 33%.
Very few teams are 80% to win against any other teams at the Elite level. For reference, AP/Duda only have an 80% winning percentage against a couple of teams. (The ones they have played often anyway) I doubt Tri/Chaim or Mudinger win 75% or 80% of their matches against any teams at this level. Tri/Chaim who you estimate as 65% favorites to beat Australia, are 0-2 against Australia. The Cuban team who you make Tri/Chaim a 75% favorite against had a winning record on the FIVB last year, something Cri did not. Cri could definitely win both games and qualify and one area where they did play fairly well last year was in the Q, but the odds you have seemed way out of whack. |
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Post by dunninla3 on Feb 27, 2024 17:09:57 GMT -5
Ah, well, then Tri/Chaim should beat the Cubans (75%), then get AUS1, and that's a tough one b/c sometimes they play wild, sometimes in control. Still, I give them 65% to beat them. Then they go into Pool A, where they have a 50/50 vs. Ehlers/Wickler to advance. Mudinger are probably 80% in rd. 1 of Quali, then face CAN and they should be 80% in that one as well. So Mudinger out of Pool is higher odds for sure. Then in Pool B, I would give them exactly the same chance of beating Brouwer/M9eeuwsen as Tri/Chaim have of beating Ehlers/Wickler (assuming Tri/Chaim get to Pool). Which is about 33%.
you ... seem() way out of whack. not the first time someone has concluded that |
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Post by overonone on Feb 27, 2024 17:15:05 GMT -5
What are your odds now? Quali match ups have changed. Tri/Chaim v Cubans: is that the right match up? Ah, well, then Tri/Chaim should beat the Cubans (75%), then get AUS1, and that's a tough one b/c sometimes they play wild, sometimes in control. Still, I give them 65% to beat them. Then they go into Pool A, where they have a 50/50 vs. Ehlers/Wickler to advance.
Mudinger are probably 80% in rd. 1 of Quali, then face CAN and they should be 80% in that one as well. So Mudinger out of Pool is higher odds for sure. Then in Pool B, I would give them exactly the same chance of beating Brouwer/Meeuwsen as Tri/Chaim have of beating Ehlers/Wickler (assuming Tri/Chaim get to Pool). Which is about 33%.
My money is on the Cubans beating Tri/Chaim. |
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Post by guest2 on Feb 28, 2024 5:22:50 GMT -5
Ah, well, then Tri/Chaim should beat the Cubans (75%), then get AUS1, and that's a tough one b/c sometimes they play wild, sometimes in control. Still, I give them 65% to beat them. Then they go into Pool A, where they have a 50/50 vs. Ehlers/Wickler to advance. Mudinger are probably 80% in rd. 1 of Quali, then face CAN and they should be 80% in that one as well. So Mudinger out of Pool is higher odds for sure. Then in Pool B, I would give them exactly the same chance of beating Brouwer/Meeuwsen as Tri/Chaim have of beating Ehlers/Wickler (assuming Tri/Chaim get to Pool). Which is about 33%.
My money is on the Cubans beating Tri/Chaim. I wonder when the Cubans arrive? They are a notoriously poor federation, can they afford to show up a few days in advance to get acclimated or are they going to be playing the US and jet lag? |
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Post by robvolei on Feb 28, 2024 5:31:50 GMT -5
I'd give Cri a 50% chance at beating the Cubans. I think the Cubans take the W, though.
Cri have a 20% chance against Ehlers/Wickler. I don't know their head-to-head record but Germany are the better team.
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Post by bvbllr on Feb 28, 2024 15:08:59 GMT -5
What are the odds of any main draw teams dropping out in the next days? Are there any that may still work through injuries and will make it a last minute decision on whether to play or skip?
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Post by ajm on Feb 28, 2024 18:52:52 GMT -5
What are the odds of any main draw teams dropping out in the next days? Are there any that may still work through injuries and will make it a last minute decision on whether to play or skip? It's pretty uncommon for teams to drop out of an Elite 16 the week before the event, particularly for main draw teams. Fines are $1500 per main draw athlete and $500 per Q athlete without a documented medical injury, and after Friday the fines apply regardless of the reason. Looks like Herrera/Gavira did drop out of the Q recently. Heidrich/Diller got in off the reserve list. |
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Post by kc8413 on Mar 2, 2024 10:34:28 GMT -5
I really hope Mol/Sorum regains their #1 slot!!! THough it is exciting to know that they may not win every match.
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Post by overonone on Mar 3, 2024 18:54:13 GMT -5
I'd give Cri a 50% chance at beating the Cubans. I think the Cubans take the W, though. Cri have a 20% chance against Ehlers/Wickler. I don't know their head-to-head record but Germany are the better team. Is it now Tri/Chaim vs Schachter/Dearing in the qualifier? If so, a rematch of the recent Manhattan Beach round robin. |
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Post by robvolei on Mar 4, 2024 1:06:40 GMT -5
I'd give Cri a 50% chance at beating the Cubans. I think the Cubans take the W, though. Cri have a 20% chance against Ehlers/Wickler. I don't know their head-to-head record but Germany are the better team. Is it now Tri/Chaim vs Schachter/Dearing in the qualifier? If so, a rematch of the recent Manhattan Beach round robin. Did the Cuban's pullout? |
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Post by guest2 on Mar 4, 2024 1:12:49 GMT -5
I'd give Cri a 50% chance at beating the Cubans. I think the Cubans take the W, though. Cri have a 20% chance against Ehlers/Wickler. I don't know their head-to-head record but Germany are the better team. Is it now Tri/Chaim vs Schachter/Dearing in the qualifier? If so, a rematch of the recent Manhattan Beach round robin. Looks like both US teams still managed to land in the same Q bracket. Excellent draw for both |
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