|
Post by ndodge on Sept 11, 2024 11:59:04 GMT -5
That's a lot of WI D3 schools in the mix.
|
|
|
Post by jammaster on Sept 11, 2024 21:26:03 GMT -5
According to Massey the rankings are 1 Whitewater 2 Hope 3 Juniata 4 Oshkosh 5 Millikin And according to their site we should expect... Hope 3 Juniata 1 (75% to win) Hope 3 Oshkosh 2 (65% to win) Oshkosh 3 Juniata 2 (59% to win) Whitewater 3 Millikin 0 (93% to win) And then next Wednesday Oshkosh is a home favorite over Whitewater 3-2 (59% to win), but I presume that would be affected by this weekends results. I'm not sure how they have #4 beating #3 on a neutral court, and I don't know how they weigh the home court for Hope but anyway you look at it, this should be a fun event to watch. And just to be thorough #7 Wisconsin-Platteville is 68% to beat #10 Case Western (3-2) on Saturday in yet another top 10 ish matchup (Top 10 to an algorithm but neither team is ranked by the AVCA, so "ish" ). and #9 Gustavus Adolphus vs #13 Emory (Emory is 5 and GA 12 in the AVCA poll) - GA is 60% to beat Emory (3-2) but they are with Stevens Point AT Northwestern who is favored to beat ALL of them in 5 (Emory 64% Stevens Pt 60% and GA 54%), which serves to remind us that the games are played by kids, not robots and things matter that an algorithm (Massey or NPI) cannot account for. Oh, and don't forget Calvin, Whittier and Christopher Newport at Tufts, with MIT also getting a shot at the latter two. MIT also gets Johns Hopkins, NYU and UC Santa Cruz the following weekend. Could be an inflexion point on their season. One way or the other...
|
|
|
Post by noreaster on Sept 12, 2024 9:59:19 GMT -5
According to Massey the rankings are 1 Whitewater 2 Hope 3 Juniata 4 Oshkosh 5 Millikin And according to their site we should expect... Hope 3 Juniata 1 (75% to win) Hope 3 Oshkosh 2 (65% to win) Oshkosh 3 Juniata 2 (59% to win) Whitewater 3 Millikin 0 (93% to win) And then next Wednesday Oshkosh is a home favorite over Whitewater 3-2 (59% to win), but I presume that would be affected by this weekends results. I'm not sure how they have #4 beating #3 on a neutral court, and I don't know how they weigh the home court for Hope but anyway you look at it, this should be a fun event to watch. And just to be thorough #7 Wisconsin-Platteville is 68% to beat #10 Case Western (3-2) on Saturday in yet another top 10 ish matchup (Top 10 to an algorithm but neither team is ranked by the AVCA, so "ish" ). and #9 Gustavus Adolphus vs #13 Emory (Emory is 5 and GA 12 in the AVCA poll) - GA is 60% to beat Emory (3-2) but they are with Stevens Point AT Northwestern who is favored to beat ALL of them in 5 (Emory 64% Stevens Pt 60% and GA 54%), which serves to remind us that the games are played by kids, not robots and things matter that an algorithm (Massey or NPI) cannot account for. Oh, and don't forget Calvin, Whittier and Christopher Newport at Tufts, with MIT also getting a shot at the latter two. MIT also gets Johns Hopkins, NYU and UC Santa Cruz the following weekend. Could be an inflexion point on their season. One way or the other... There are lots of great matches to come but let's take it 1 week at a time!
|
|
|
Post by jammaster on Sept 12, 2024 12:16:55 GMT -5
MIT also gets Johns Hopkins, NYU and UC Santa Cruz the following weekend. Could be an inflexion point on their season. One way or the other... There are lots of great matches to come but let's take it 1 week at a time! Or we can look ahead...it's a big world out there.
|
|
|
Post by ned3vball on Sept 13, 2024 7:32:31 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by ned3vball on Sept 13, 2024 7:50:12 GMT -5
After looking very wonky with 1 weekend of data, adding a second weekend has helped the NPI simulation take on a surprisingly normal look. Weekend 3 can only help. There is a link out there to another simulation (our data is very similar) if you want to find it. I am waiting a bit longer.
One thing we need to figure out is the exact list of D3 schools whose matches count. UT-Dallas is out as they move to D2. Is Ferrum in? If you have a list of these schools please PM me.
|
|
d3dad
High School
Posts: 6
|
Post by d3dad on Sept 13, 2024 19:02:32 GMT -5
According to Massey the rankings are 1 Whitewater 2 Hope 3 Juniata 4 Oshkosh 5 Millikin And according to their site we should expect... Hope 3 Juniata 1 (75% to win) Hope 3 Oshkosh 2 (65% to win) Oshkosh 3 Juniata 2 (59% to win) Whitewater 3 Millikin 0 (93% to win) And then next Wednesday Oshkosh is a home favorite over Whitewater 3-2 (59% to win), but I presume that would be affected by this weekends results. I'm not sure how they have #4 beating #3 on a neutral court, and I don't know how they weigh the home court for Hope but anyway you look at it, this should be a fun event to watch. And just to be thorough #7 Wisconsin-Platteville is 68% to beat #10 Case Western (3-2) on Saturday in yet another top 10 ish matchup (Top 10 to an algorithm but neither team is ranked by the AVCA, so "ish" ). and #9 Gustavus Adolphus vs #13 Emory (Emory is 5 and GA 12 in the AVCA poll) - GA is 60% to beat Emory (3-2) but they are with Stevens Point AT Northwestern who is favored to beat ALL of them in 5 (Emory 64% Stevens Pt 60% and GA 54%), which serves to remind us that the games are played by kids, not robots and things matter that an algorithm (Massey or NPI) cannot account for. Oh, and don't forget Calvin, Whittier and Christopher Newport at Tufts, with MIT also getting a shot at the latter two.
|
|
d3dad
High School
Posts: 6
|
Post by d3dad on Sept 13, 2024 19:03:34 GMT -5
According to Massey the rankings are 1 Whitewater 2 Hope 3 Juniata 4 Oshkosh 5 Millikin And according to their site we should expect... Hope 3 Juniata 1 (75% to win) Hope 3 Oshkosh 2 (65% to win) Oshkosh 3 Juniata 2 (59% to win) Whitewater 3 Millikin 0 (93% to win) And then next Wednesday Oshkosh is a home favorite over Whitewater 3-2 (59% to win), but I presume that would be affected by this weekends results. I'm not sure how they have #4 beating #3 on a neutral court, and I don't know how they weigh the home court for Hope but anyway you look at it, this should be a fun event to watch. And just to be thorough #7 Wisconsin-Platteville is 68% to beat #10 Case Western (3-2) on Saturday in yet another top 10 ish matchup (Top 10 to an algorithm but neither team is ranked by the AVCA, so "ish" ). and #9 Gustavus Adolphus vs #13 Emory (Emory is 5 and GA 12 in the AVCA poll) - GA is 60% to beat Emory (3-2) but they are with Stevens Point AT Northwestern who is favored to beat ALL of them in 5 (Emory 64% Stevens Pt 60% and GA 54%), which serves to remind us that the games are played by kids, not robots and things matter that an algorithm (Massey or NPI) cannot account for. Oh, and don't forget Calvin, Whittier and Christopher Newport at Tufts, with MIT also getting a shot at the latter two. I wish you could bet against the Massey line in Vegas.
|
|
|
Post by ned3vball on Sept 13, 2024 20:36:32 GMT -5
Endicott with the upset at Trinity (TX).
|
|
|
Post by noreaster on Sept 13, 2024 21:32:41 GMT -5
Endicott with the upset at Trinity (TX). Talk about betting against Massey - this one was 100% for Trinity.
|
|
|
Post by jcvball22 on Sept 13, 2024 21:58:41 GMT -5
Endicott with the upset at Trinity (TX). Talk about betting against Massey - this one was 100% for Trinity. And that’s why they play the games. Well done, Gulls!
|
|
|
Post by WahineFan44 on Sept 13, 2024 22:03:11 GMT -5
Endicott with the upset at Trinity (TX). Talk about betting against Massey - this one was 100% for Trinity. How is that a thing? Nothing in life can ever be 100. I mean even Alcorn state could theoretically beat Nebraska Unless Massey just rounds it up?
|
|
|
Post by jammaster on Sept 13, 2024 22:28:47 GMT -5
Endicott with the upset at Trinity (TX). Holy crap...Trinity has been taking a pounding. I think they lost a bunch of "super seniors" but they have a huge roster. Wow...
|
|
|
Post by noreaster on Sept 14, 2024 6:35:27 GMT -5
Talk about betting against Massey - this one was 100% for Trinity. How is that a thing? Nothing in life can ever be 100. I mean even Alcorn state could theoretically beat Nebraska Unless Massey just rounds it up? IDK, I'm just the messenger. They now have Juniata at #2 behind Whitewater, but they are 44% to beat Oshkosh. That doesn't make sense to me but I know a lot of coaches feel like Massey is pretty accurate so it's something to talk about going into games like these.
|
|
|
Post by jcvball22 on Sept 14, 2024 11:39:36 GMT -5
Juniata is up 2-0 on Wisconsin Oshkosh, but down 6-12 in the 3rd.
|
|