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Post by noreaster on Sept 5, 2024 10:40:41 GMT -5
Just ran the NPI data for the first 3 days of the season. Yes, I see why the NCAA does not want to post anything for a while. The top 25 is an eclectic list of schools! I believe Pablo (on Richkern.com) uses last seasons data until around the start of October. I agree that the NPI shouldn't be doing that. At this point not every D3 team has played a match yet so it's reasonable that the results won't have found any truth yet, if it did we'd just be spinning our wheels for the next 2 months. However, football is going to make decisions with around 10 results per team and if that is doable, we should have something reasonable by the end of week 3 or 4, you would think. D3vbwest reported that the top 2 were Cairn and Farmingdale - high probability that changes in a week or two - but I think part of using a computer instead of people is to get results that we haven't been getting. Maybe not Cairn or Farmingdale but I expect to see some names in November that we haven't seen before. And I'd still like the NCAA to release the data A) like you said, to confirm the results they are working and let the public help to catch any mistakes, and B) There are lessons about how this works to be learned from small data sets - maybe not 1 week but the sooner the better.
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diiifan
Sophomore
https://d3vbwest.wordpress.com/
Posts: 104
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Post by diiifan on Sept 5, 2024 12:13:17 GMT -5
Just ran the NPI data for the first 3 days of the season. Yes, I see why the NCAA does not want to post anything for a while. The top 25 is an eclectic list of schools! I believe Pablo (on Richkern.com) uses last seasons data until around the start of October. I agree that the NPI shouldn't be doing that. At this point not every D3 team has played a match yet so it's reasonable that the results won't have found any truth yet, if it did we'd just be spinning our wheels for the next 2 months. However, football is going to make decisions with around 10 results per team and if that is doable, we should have something reasonable by the end of week 3 or 4, you would think. D3vbwest reported that the top 2 were Cairn and Farmingdale - high probability that changes in a week or two - but I think part of using a computer instead of people is to get results that we haven't been getting. Maybe not Cairn or Farmingdale but I expect to see some names in November that we haven't seen before. And I'd still like the NCAA to release the data A) like you said, to confirm the results they are working and let the public help to catch any mistakes, and B) There are lessons about how this works to be learned from small data sets - maybe not 1 week but the sooner the better. Narrator's Voice: Football found out it was not doable.
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Post by noreaster on Sept 5, 2024 14:18:34 GMT -5
I believe Pablo (on Richkern.com) uses last seasons data until around the start of October. I agree that the NPI shouldn't be doing that. At this point not every D3 team has played a match yet so it's reasonable that the results won't have found any truth yet, if it did we'd just be spinning our wheels for the next 2 months. However, football is going to make decisions with around 10 results per team and if that is doable, we should have something reasonable by the end of week 3 or 4, you would think. D3vbwest reported that the top 2 were Cairn and Farmingdale - high probability that changes in a week or two - but I think part of using a computer instead of people is to get results that we haven't been getting. Maybe not Cairn or Farmingdale but I expect to see some names in November that we haven't seen before. And I'd still like the NCAA to release the data A) like you said, to confirm the results they are working and let the public help to catch any mistakes, and B) There are lessons about how this works to be learned from small data sets - maybe not 1 week but the sooner the better. Narrator's Voice: Football found out it was not doable. Prediction? Or they know this and launched it anyway? This concept is based on something Hockey has been doing with around 40 games and they liked it enough that all sports are now doing it. That suggests that 40 works, so baseball and softball should be fine, though I suspect we're going to see some phantom rain outs this spring. Football at 10 games, with most being conference games (which by rule have a .500 winning% - one team in your league wins each conference game, one team loses) seems like the toughest one. With 10 datapoints, mostly non-conference, it seems like we SHOULD have more information than football will have at the end of their season. Lakeland plays their 10th on September 10 so maybe soon! But then Ramapo plays their 10th on October 1 so maybe not so soon.
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diiifan
Sophomore
https://d3vbwest.wordpress.com/
Posts: 104
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Post by diiifan on Sept 5, 2024 19:36:37 GMT -5
Narrator's Voice: Football found out it was not doable. Prediction? Or they know this and launched it anyway? This concept is based on something Hockey has been doing with around 40 games and they liked it enough that all sports are now doing it. That suggests that 40 works, so baseball and softball should be fine, though I suspect we're going to see some phantom rain outs this spring. Football at 10 games, with most being conference games (which by rule have a .500 winning% - one team in your league wins each conference game, one team loses) seems like the toughest one. With 10 datapoints, mostly non-conference, it seems like we SHOULD have more information than football will have at the end of their season. Lakeland plays their 10th on September 10 so maybe soon! But then Ramapo plays their 10th on October 1 so maybe not so soon. Prediction. It's just not enough games to use with this system. It also helps to get a lot of cross play that just can't happen in football.
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Post by ned3vball on Sept 6, 2024 4:43:17 GMT -5
Top 100 matchups for today. East West Challenge at WashU among other events. Time zone?? Updated start time? Double check your matches of interest. Thank You richkern.com for the schedule data.
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Post by ned3vball on Sept 6, 2024 4:51:55 GMT -5
And here are the Saturday 9/7 Top 100 tilts. Doing it a day early as tomorrow could be busy. Time zone?? Updated start time? Double check your matches of interest. Thank You richkern.com for the schedule data.
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Post by coachk2 on Sept 6, 2024 7:25:42 GMT -5
East To West Battle at Wash U this weekend has some times that vary somewhat from the above schedules. 🤔 On Friday Trinity vs Johns Hopkins is 10:30 am CDT, Emory vs Colorado College is 1 pm CDT, and Trinity vs CMS is 3:30 pm CDT. On Saturday Emory vs Johns Hopkins is 10:30 am CDT, CM vs Tufts is 1 pm CDT, and CMS vs Emory is 4:30 pm CDT. 😁
The Field House court suffered some water damage so matches are in two other gyms with video and live stats. Coach K has play by play for only the 3 Wash U matches vs Cal Lu at 7 pm Friday, Trinity at 10:30 am and Tufts at 4:30 pm Saturday (all CDT). 🏐🎤
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Post by jammaster on Sept 6, 2024 15:59:41 GMT -5
CMS vs trinity about to start. The live stream is terrible (dark) but the price is right!
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Post by jammaster on Sept 7, 2024 16:08:14 GMT -5
MIT rolls (roll tech!) at their tournament. Lost 1 close set to Colby. 6-0 on the year. Go Engineers! Also CMS thrashed on Trinity. I wasn't expecting it to be that lopsided.
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d3dad
High School
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Post by d3dad on Sept 7, 2024 19:10:12 GMT -5
Junaita broke the consecutive win streak in D3history today at 67!
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diiifan
Sophomore
https://d3vbwest.wordpress.com/
Posts: 104
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Post by diiifan on Sept 7, 2024 19:53:02 GMT -5
Junaita broke the consecutive win streak in D3history today at 67! Well...I mean...now they are just showing off.
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Post by psuvbfan10 on Sept 8, 2024 12:59:33 GMT -5
Hasn't Juniata also won their conference championship every year since 1981 or '82. An amazing feat as well!
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d3dad
High School
Posts: 6
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Post by d3dad on Sept 8, 2024 16:13:35 GMT -5
41 consecutive years as Conference Champs and NCAA qualifiers
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Post by jammaster on Sept 10, 2024 15:04:03 GMT -5
The two main middles at MIT are hitting 0.579 and 0.615 on the season. Consecrata Rozario is the 0.615 and she leads D3 for hitting percentage (51 Kills, 3 Errors). Roll Tech!
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Post by noreaster on Sept 11, 2024 8:46:56 GMT -5
According to Massey the rankings are
1 Whitewater 2 Hope 3 Juniata 4 Oshkosh 5 Millikin
And according to their site we should expect...
Hope 3 Juniata 1 (75% to win) Hope 3 Oshkosh 2 (65% to win) Oshkosh 3 Juniata 2 (59% to win) Whitewater 3 Millikin 0 (93% to win)
And then next Wednesday Oshkosh is a home favorite over Whitewater 3-2 (59% to win), but I presume that would be affected by this weekends results.
I'm not sure how they have #4 beating #3 on a neutral court, and I don't know how they weigh the home court for Hope but anyway you look at it, this should be a fun event to watch.
And just to be thorough #7 Wisconsin-Platteville is 68% to beat #10 Case Western (3-2) on Saturday in yet another top 10 ish matchup (Top 10 to an algorithm but neither team is ranked by the AVCA, so "ish" ).
and #9 Gustavus Adolphus vs #13 Emory (Emory is 5 and GA 12 in the AVCA poll) - GA is 60% to beat Emory (3-2) but they are with Stevens Point AT Northwestern who is favored to beat ALL of them in 5 (Emory 64% Stevens Pt 60% and GA 54%), which serves to remind us that the games are played by kids, not robots and things matter that an algorithm (Massey or NPI) cannot account for.
Oh, and don't forget Calvin, Whittier and Christopher Newport at Tufts, with MIT also getting a shot at the latter two.
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