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Post by coahc21 on Aug 27, 2024 20:34:25 GMT -5
The NCAA didn't release the NPI from last year but several of us have programmed the algorithm and are reasonably sure that our numbers agree with what the NCAA would compute. The best record of the teams that were approximately average or below was Framingham State (21-10). They had an NPI just a little over 50. Interestingly, their SOS as computed last year was .427. Is that something you are able or feel comfortable sharing? No pressure though, we will all find out soon enough, I am just impatient |
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Post by ned3vball on Aug 29, 2024 14:05:56 GMT -5
Opening day tomorrow! here are the Top 100 matches using 2023 ending Pablo/Massey/HuskerGeek average for a rating. Will probably do it based on NPI as the year moves forward and the NPI numbers start to take shape. Time zone?? Updated start time? Double check your matches of interest. Thank You richkern.com for the schedule data. |
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Post by ned3vball on Aug 30, 2024 13:19:34 GMT -5
I have been watching D3 volleyball online since 2008, and in that time I have never had to pay to watch a match. There have been only 2 or 3 times I have not been able able to watch a match for free.
Well it looks 2024 will be remembered as the year paid streaming services weaseled their way into D3 in a big way. The first two matches I tried to check out on the above list require FloSports or ballertv. They are not cheap. Can you pay a small fee to watch a single match? Nope.
The Flosports page has logos for 6 or 7 D3 conferences. I had already seen the NEWMAC announcement.
All D3 sports should streamed online for free. You need 3 things, an iPad, a tripod, and a student on work/study or who wants to resume build. It does not need to be fancy. Announcers? Better off without for volleyball. I guess $80K a year for college doesn't go as far these days. And tell those FloSports execs to get off my lawn!
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Post by ned3vball on Aug 31, 2024 6:34:21 GMT -5
August 31 top matches Time zone?? Updated start time? Double check your matches of interest. Thank You richkern.com for the schedule data. |
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Post by ned3vball on Aug 31, 2024 6:38:16 GMT -5
Watched a little Friday. Coe let WashU slip through their fingers. Carnegie Mellon gave Calvin a battle. Southwestern off to a good start.
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Post by noreaster on Aug 31, 2024 6:45:00 GMT -5
Gustavus Adolphus takes down Oshkosh and then the reverse sweep vs Transy on day 1. Two 5th year All-Americans should make a difference and it sounds like they did. At 2-0 with two likely QWB wins already, I'd guess that Gustavus Adolphus would be the the best position for NPI so far.
Also in Colorado Milliken beat the host and Transy, making todays matches vs Oshkosh and Gustavus Adolphus more interesting.
Wisconsin Eau Claire goes east to Gettysburg and loses to Eastern right out of the gate. Even under the old system but I think more so under NPI, that is the type of inter-regional game that bumps the numbers for all of the east coast teams on Eastern's schedule and does the opposite for all of Eau Claire's opponents. Same for Cortland over Texas Lutheran and...
Hardin Simmons over Berry! And W&L over Berry? Both in a close 5. Berry's schedule has enough red meat that they'll have every chance to come back but these two results certainly caught me off guard.
Mt St Joes was 24-2 last year and already lost, bowing to Illinois Wesleyan. If you haven't seen Taylor French, a lot of teams are going to bow to her and IWU this year.
Looking at scores, I'm realizing that in addition to Oshkosh and Eau Clair, River Falls lost twice, Lacrosse lost to Webster, Stevens Point lost to Cornell...to go 7-6 on the day. Just for comparison, last year they had 44 wins before their 6th loss.
Today I'm excited to see Hopkins and Juniata, Oshkosh vs Transy, and Hope vs Wash U, but low key upset I'm looking at Lasell vs MIT. IDK if they can beat MIT but they added Eastern Naz OH to a 27 win team and this is one of their few "big time" matches so I'm curious to see what Lasell does with this opportunity.
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Post by ned3vball on Aug 31, 2024 6:58:52 GMT -5
An NPI question I think. Babson likes to schedule lightly the first weekend. they won yesterday 8, 12, and 10. Then backed that up with a 9, 9, 8. They have 2 more like that today. Pre NPI this would be a 4-0 start to help pump up the win % down the road. With NPI these matches will not count(you have to figure) as soon as they get 10 others which they will. Do they start to schedule a little tougher to maybe get something out of the first weekend?
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Post by coahc21 on Aug 31, 2024 7:29:57 GMT -5
NCAA Score website was attrocious yesterday! Not updated timely and a lot of mistakes....I know it's been an issue in the past, but this is the worst I can remember..
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Post by noreaster on Aug 31, 2024 8:34:36 GMT -5
An NPI question I think. Babson likes to schedule lightly the first weekend. they won yesterday 8, 12, and 10. Then backed that up with a 9, 9, 8. They have 2 more like that today. Pre NPI this would be a 4-0 start to help pump up the win % down the road. With NPI these matches will not count(you have to figure) as soon as they get 10 others which they will. Do they start to schedule a little tougher to maybe get something out of the first weekend? 4 teams with a pablo below 350, and they don't play another for the rest of the year. My guess is they do this on purpose, and look at the other way... now it doesn't hurt them, the matches just get dropped. I would think you'd want at least one moderately competitive team to help prepare for what is to come, but it looks like this is what they like to do. |
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Post by jcvball22 on Aug 31, 2024 17:31:09 GMT -5
Juniata takes the first Top-5 match up of the season over Johns Hopkins in 4. Which makes the match seem closer than it really was. In the 3 sets they won, Juniata held Hopkins to -16, -15, 12 (but dropped set 2 21-25).
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Post by noreaster on Aug 31, 2024 20:10:10 GMT -5
Calvin lost to Marietta
CMS lost to Centre
Northwestern lost to Coe
I wonder when was the last time those 3 powers lost on the same day?
It has to have been a while!
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Post by ned3vball on Sept 1, 2024 7:47:43 GMT -5
I was on the road yesterday, looks like I missed a few interesting ones. Sunday September 1st top 100. North Park and Ohio Wesleyan the stage is yours. Time zone?? Updated start time? Double check your matches of interest. Thank You richkern.com for the schedule data. |
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Post by ned3vball on Sept 1, 2024 8:49:23 GMT -5
It will be a while till the NPI data starts to take shape so no unofficial lists for now. Here is a primer as I understand it. You might want a take a couple aspirin before reading this.
Team A plays Team B in the very first match of the season. Both start the year with an NPI of zero.
Team A wins.
You calculate the "game" NPI for each school.
Team A "game" NPI is .200 = .20 + (.8(Team B "season" NPI)) = .20 + (.8(0)) = .200
Team B "game" NPI is 0.0 = .80(Team A "season" NPI) = .80 * 0.0 = 0.0
Your "season" NPI is an average of all your "game" NPIs that are used. A game is used (1) it is a win that helps your average, or, (2) it is a loss.
These game records are added to the season data for each school.
So Team A now has a "season" NPI of .200 (the average of their 1 game NPIs so far)
This is a change - so you need to update all their opponents game records using the new "Season" NPI
Team B's 1 game record is now .160 = .80(.200), and as they have only played 1 match the season NPI is now .160
Wait, we now have to recalc Team A since the game NPI is now .20 + (.8(.160)) = .328 (another change)
This is the "iteration" they reference in the videos. If you keep doing this for a bit for just these 2 schools you will end up with:
Team A NPI of 55.6 and Team B NPI of 44.4
These game NPI records will be recalculated again and again as the year goes on and more matches are added.
You iterate the NPI data, till all the schools affected by the A/B match get a fresh NPI. You keep doing this for a given school till the NPI you calculate matches the NPI you started with. (is one way to do it, a math person might have a slicker criteria)
So once each school has played 20 or so matches there is a lot of iterating going on for a lot of schools.
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edit 1 - I left out the quality win bonus component from the 'win' game calc above(which is zero at this point). will save that for another post.
edit 2 - there is also a minimum 10 win rule. your best 10 wins are used whether they help your average or not.
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Post by TheReignman on Sept 1, 2024 9:41:45 GMT -5
It will be a while till the NPI data starts to take shape so no unofficial lists for now. Here is a primer as I understand it. You might want a take a couple aspirin before reading this. Team A plays Team B in the very first match of the season. Both start the year with an NPI of zero. Team A wins. You calculate the "game" NPI for each school. Team A "game" NPI is .200 = .20 + (.8(Team B "season" NPI)) = .20 + (.8(0)) = .200 Team B "game" NPI is 0.0 = .80(Team A "season" NPI) = .80 * 0.0 = 0.0 Your "season" NPI is an average of all your "game" NPIs that are used. A game is used (1) it is a win that helps your average, or, (2) it is a loss. These game records are added to the season data for each school. So Team A now has a "season" NPI of .200 (the average of their 1 game NPIs so far) This is a change - so you need to update all their opponents game records using the new "Season" NPI Team B's 1 game record is now .160 = .80(.200), and as they have only played 1 match the season NPI is now .160 Wait, we now have to recalc Team A since the game NPI is now .20 + (.8(.160) = .328 (another change) This is the "iteration" they reference in the videos. If you keep doing this for a bit for just these 2 schools you will end up with: Team A NPI of 55.6 and Team B NPI of 44.4 These game NPI records will be recalculated again and again as the year goes on and more matches are added. You iterate the NPI data, till all the schools affected by the A/B match get a fresh NPI. You keep doing for a given school till the NPI you calculate matches the NPI you started with. (is one way to do it, a math person might have a slicker criteria) So once each school has played 20 or so matches there is a lot of iterating going on for a lot of schools. This nailed it. As someone who has spent a lot of time in the NPI system, It took the men's volleyball landscape about 4-6 weeks to take shape with the increased volume of teams.I would guess that late october is when the picture will start to become more clear |
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Post by noreaster on Sept 1, 2024 21:38:56 GMT -5
I feel like the iterations give the NCAA some cover if their results are different than ned3vball's or other sites that are out there. It's not anyone messed up, we just stopped calculating at different points in the process.
That said, there was a circular reference aspect to the old system too. On selection Sunday the committee would do 2 rankings. The first was the standard weekly update, and then the second ranking used the new rankings for record vs ranked. If Team A is ranked, Team B isn't, and now Team A lost 2 ranked wins and now they don't look like a ranked team anymore. In theory this could have kept going like an infinite hokey pokey so the committee just cut it off at 2 rounds.
If I understand the NPI iterations can run until the numbers "settle out" but do we have any idea how long that takes? Are we talking 30 iterations or 30,000? And are we relying on AI for this or is there an office of computer science and math interns to do this stuff?
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