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Post by miaafan on Sept 1, 2024 22:04:12 GMT -5
Even with the 420 or so volleyball teams, an iteration takes less than a second and convergence to six significant digits happens in well under 100 iterations. So unless the NCAA is doing this in something like Excel and only using Excel's defaults, we shouldn't be needlessly concerned that there is going to be any problem due the iterative nature of the algorithm.
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Post by psuvbfan10 on Sept 1, 2024 22:32:40 GMT -5
I don't think the NCAA can invest in Excel - they still use Lotus 123
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Post by d3follower on Sept 2, 2024 13:32:24 GMT -5
I feel like the iterations give the NCAA some cover if their results are different than ned3vball's or other sites that are out there. It's not anyone messed up, we just stopped calculating at different points in the process. That said, there was a circular reference aspect to the old system too. On selection Sunday the committee would do 2 rankings. The first was the standard weekly update, and then the second ranking used the new rankings for record vs ranked. If Team A is ranked, Team B isn't, and now Team A lost 2 ranked wins and now they don't look like a ranked team anymore. In theory this could have kept going like an infinite hokey pokey so the committee just cut it off at 2 rounds. If I understand the NPI iterations can run until the numbers "settle out" but do we have any idea how long that takes? Are we talking 30 iterations or 30,000? And are we relying on AI for this or is there an office of computer science and math interns to do this stuff? Slight difference in regards to comparing with the "old" system is that if Team A was ranked in the third ranking but not the fourth (final), all Team A opponents still got credit for those ranked results. Teams were considered ranked if they appeared in any of the last two rankings. You could only get additional results toward your resume if the rankings changed between the third and fourth lists. |
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Post by d3follower on Sept 2, 2024 13:40:57 GMT -5
Annual plugs for regionally focused blogs: Region VIII/IXRegion XOne is chattier than the other. Have a great season wherever you are. |
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Post by noreaster on Sept 2, 2024 14:58:55 GMT -5
Games of the week.
Wednesday
Gettysburg at Stevenson (would have been an important game for regional rankings - with NPI I'm not so sure, but it still FEELS important)
Mount Union At Case Western Reserve
Thursday
Messiah vs Lancaster Bible (Messiah was bubble-adjacent last year and I think Lancaster Bible is going to be worth some NPI points this year)
Texas Dallas vs Southwestern (again, not what it once was, but if feels important)
Friday-Saturday
Babson vs F&M (interregional regionally ranked teams)
Ithaca vs Middlebury (same)
Berry at Northwestern (one of these teams is going to 3 losses in week 2?) with Cornell and Whitewater
Ohio Northern at Juniata
Centre at Transylvania (one beat CMS and one is 0-4)
Whitworth at Oshkosh w/ Stevens Point (3-0 Whit goes east looking for QWB points)
And then of course the east-west classic at Wash U with Tufts, Cal Lu, Colorado, Hopkins, Emory, Trinity, and CMS.
In short, it's a good week!
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Post by jammaster on Sept 2, 2024 15:07:15 GMT -5
MIT rolled at the Gordon tournament last weekend. Didn't drop a set and pulled half of starters for 2nd and 3rd set vs. Gordon. Looks like they are set up for a good season.
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diiifan
Sophomore
https://d3vbwest.wordpress.com/
Posts: 118 
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Post by diiifan on Sept 3, 2024 9:48:11 GMT -5
Annual plugs for regionally focused blogs: Region VIII/IXRegion XOne is chattier than the other. Have a great season wherever you are. "Chattier"? I like to think of myself as loquacious. Just sounds cooler. I do try to touch on things outside of the region at times. Top 25 was posted yesterday. |
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diiifan
Sophomore
https://d3vbwest.wordpress.com/
Posts: 118
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Post by diiifan on Sept 3, 2024 9:49:29 GMT -5
Games of the week. Wednesday Gettysburg at Stevenson (would have been an important game for regional rankings - with NPI I'm not so sure, but it still FEELS important) Mount Union At Case Western Reserve Thursday Messiah vs Lancaster Bible (Messiah was bubble-adjacent last year and I think Lancaster Bible is going to be worth some NPI points this year) Texas Dallas vs Southwestern (again, not what it once was, but if feels important) Friday-Saturday Babson vs F&M (interregional regionally ranked teams) Ithaca vs Middlebury (same) Berry at Northwestern (one of these teams is going to 3 losses in week 2?) with Cornell and Whitewater Ohio Northern at Juniata Centre at Transylvania (one beat CMS and one is 0-4) Whitworth at Oshkosh w/ Stevens Point (3-0 Whit goes east looking for QWB points) And then of course the east-west classic at Wash U with Tufts, Cal Lu, Colorado, Hopkins, Emory, Trinity, and CMS. In short, it's a good week! With UT-Dallas transitioning to DII, their matches, sadly, no longer mean anything in our DIII world. They will not be included in NPI. |
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Post by noreaster on Sept 3, 2024 12:22:02 GMT -5
Games of the week. Wednesday Gettysburg at Stevenson (would have been an important game for regional rankings - with NPI I'm not so sure, but it still FEELS important) Mount Union At Case Western Reserve Thursday Messiah vs Lancaster Bible (Messiah was bubble-adjacent last year and I think Lancaster Bible is going to be worth some NPI points this year) Texas Dallas vs Southwestern (again, not what it once was, but if feels important) Friday-Saturday Babson vs F&M (interregional regionally ranked teams) Ithaca vs Middlebury (same) Berry at Northwestern (one of these teams is going to 3 losses in week 2?) with Cornell and Whitewater Ohio Northern at Juniata Centre at Transylvania (one beat CMS and one is 0-4) Whitworth at Oshkosh w/ Stevens Point (3-0 Whit goes east looking for QWB points) And then of course the east-west classic at Wash U with Tufts, Cal Lu, Colorado, Hopkins, Emory, Trinity, and CMS. In short, it's a good week! With UT-Dallas transitioning to DII, their matches, sadly, no longer mean anything in our DIII world. They will not be included in NPI. I knew they were transitioning but they are in the ASC standings, so their conference matches shape who gets that bid, right? But their non-conference don't count for NPI? I didn't realize that. |
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Post by manyshaped on Sept 3, 2024 12:48:54 GMT -5
Games of the week. Wednesday Gettysburg at Stevenson (would have been an important game for regional rankings - with NPI I'm not so sure, but it still FEELS important) Mount Union At Case Western Reserve Thursday Messiah vs Lancaster Bible (Messiah was bubble-adjacent last year and I think Lancaster Bible is going to be worth some NPI points this year) Texas Dallas vs Southwestern (again, not what it once was, but if feels important) Friday-Saturday Babson vs F&M (interregional regionally ranked teams) Ithaca vs Middlebury (same) Berry at Northwestern (one of these teams is going to 3 losses in week 2?) with Cornell and Whitewater Ohio Northern at Juniata Centre at Transylvania (one beat CMS and one is 0-4) Whitworth at Oshkosh w/ Stevens Point (3-0 Whit goes east looking for QWB points) And then of course the east-west classic at Wash U with Tufts, Cal Lu, Colorado, Hopkins, Emory, Trinity, and CMS. In short, it's a good week! case has a team? that's good to know |
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Post by jcvball22 on Sept 3, 2024 13:00:24 GMT -5
Games of the week. Wednesday Gettysburg at Stevenson (would have been an important game for regional rankings - with NPI I'm not so sure, but it still FEELS important) Mount Union At Case Western Reserve Thursday Messiah vs Lancaster Bible (Messiah was bubble-adjacent last year and I think Lancaster Bible is going to be worth some NPI points this year) Texas Dallas vs Southwestern (again, not what it once was, but if feels important) Friday-Saturday Babson vs F&M (interregional regionally ranked teams) Ithaca vs Middlebury (same) Berry at Northwestern (one of these teams is going to 3 losses in week 2?) with Cornell and Whitewater Ohio Northern at Juniata Centre at Transylvania (one beat CMS and one is 0-4) Whitworth at Oshkosh w/ Stevens Point (3-0 Whit goes east looking for QWB points) And then of course the east-west classic at Wash U with Tufts, Cal Lu, Colorado, Hopkins, Emory, Trinity, and CMS. In short, it's a good week! case has a team? that's good to know And they’ve improved a ton. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe they made the NCAA tournament last year. Karen Farrell is an excellent coach. |
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diiifan
Sophomore
https://d3vbwest.wordpress.com/
Posts: 118
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Post by diiifan on Sept 3, 2024 16:48:31 GMT -5
With UT-Dallas transitioning to DII, their matches, sadly, no longer mean anything in our DIII world. They will not be included in NPI. I knew they were transitioning but they are in the ASC standings, so their conference matches shape who gets that bid, right? But their non-conference don't count for NPI? I didn't realize that. No. Their matches do not count for conference. They will not appear in the standings. Teams will have their match result show up in the overall standings but they are not considered a DIII match. Sort of like having an NAIA team playing in a DIII conference. Yes, I know that makes no sense but it's the same thing. :-) |
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diiifan
Sophomore
https://d3vbwest.wordpress.com/
Posts: 118
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Post by diiifan on Sept 3, 2024 16:49:31 GMT -5
case has a team? that's good to know And they’ve improved a ton. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe they made the NCAA tournament last year. Karen Farrell is an excellent coach. Made it last year and should have made it in 2022. They were a major snub that year. I currently have them in my Top 25. www.d3vbwest.com |
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Post by ned3vball on Sept 5, 2024 4:56:10 GMT -5
I feel like the iterations give the NCAA some cover if their results are different than ned3vball's or other sites that are out there. It's not anyone messed up, we just stopped calculating at different points in the process. That said, there was a circular reference aspect to the old system too. On selection Sunday the committee would do 2 rankings. The first was the standard weekly update, and then the second ranking used the new rankings for record vs ranked. If Team A is ranked, Team B isn't, and now Team A lost 2 ranked wins and now they don't look like a ranked team anymore. In theory this could have kept going like an infinite hokey pokey so the committee just cut it off at 2 rounds. If I understand the NPI iterations can run until the numbers "settle out" but do we have any idea how long that takes? Are we talking 30 iterations or 30,000? And are we relying on AI for this or is there an office of computer science and math interns to do this stuff? For the record running the simulation for the entire 2023 season all at once, my program made 14.6 million iteration passes. I completely iterated every school(that was impacted) after every match. I went to 5 decimal places and stopped on an exact match. My Python program ran for about 30 minutes. I am guessing you probably don't have to do it to that degree, but I am an arithmetic guy, not a mathematics guy. The big question is data(I have mentioned this and probably will all season). What matches are being feed into the calculation. I really hope the data they post will include a matches file. That is the only way to test and know. |
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Post by ned3vball on Sept 5, 2024 5:00:51 GMT -5
Just ran the NPI data for the first 3 days of the season. Yes, I see why the NCAA does not want to post anything for a while. The top 25 is an eclectic list of schools!  |
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