bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 12, 2024 8:41:13 GMT -5
#1 KANSAS
2023 Record: 24-6 (14-4) 2023 Pablo: #15 (3rd in conference) 2023 NCAA Tournament: Yes (lost in the 2nd round)
5 of 7 starters return 2X conference schedule: Iowa State, Kansas State, UCF, West Virginia
Players Lost: Reagan Cooper - OH Mykayla Myers - MB
Players Returning: Ayah Elnady - OH Camryn Turner - S London Davis - RS Toyosi Onabanjo - MB Raegan Burns - L Caroline Bien - OH/DS Katie Dalton - DS Rhian Swanson - OH
Player Additions: Zoey Burgess - MB (freshman) Grace Nelson - OH (freshman) Reese Ptacek - MB (freshman) Kenzie Dean - OH (freshman)
Projected Starters: S: Kamryn Turner - 5-8 (SR) OH: Ayah Elnady - 5-10 (SR) OH: Caroline Bien - 6-0 (SR) MB: Toyosi Onabanjo - 6-1 (SR) MB: Zoey Burgess - 6-4 (FR) RS: London Davis - 6-0 (SR) L: Raegan Burns - 5-5 (SO) DS: Katie Dalton - 6-1 (JR)
The 2023 team lost 4 starters from the prior season to graduation - both MB (Dooley and Langs), the RS (Anezka Szabo), and the Libero (Farris). Kansas brought in transfer Toyosi Onabanjo and Mykayla Myers to take over the middle blockers. London Davis was elevated to full-time RS. Freshman Raegan Burns became the Libero. And Reagan Cooper transferred in to play OH, while Bien moved to DS (and replacement OH). Kansas had a solid non-conference with their only loss being to Purdue 15-17 in the 5th set. Then came a bad loss to Texas Tech to open the Big 12 schedule and after 2 straight losses to Texas were just 3-3 in conference. From there - Reagan Cooper went off and Kansas won 11 of their last 12 matches in conference. Kansas earned a host seed for the NCAA tournament but ended up falling 13-15 in the 5th to Penn State.
Similar to Arizona State losing Levinska - Kansas will be without Cooper - who was on fire the 2nd half of last season. However - they do return 1st team all Big 12 players Elandy and Turner and 2nd team London Davis. Lost in the season that Cooper had last year was the improvement in Elnady - who led the team in kills while hitting .275 and marked improvement in her serve receive. Besides those 3 returning starters, Kansas will also have Onabanjo and Burns (who was outstanding at libero in her freshman season). Freshman Zoey Burgess (Fab 50 recruit out of Utah) is likely to take over for Myers. The replacement of Cooper is a choice between Bien (who started at OH her first two seasons and was 1st team Big 12), junior Rhian Swanson (who was the leading scorer in their final match of 2022 against Nebraska with 14 kills), or Grace Nelson (Fab 50 freshman from Illinois). Backup setter Katie Dalton will return as the DS for Davis (if healthy).
When comparing Kansas with Arizona State - Kansas is bringing back more starters and production while having the best recruiting class in the conference. Also like Arizona State - Kansas brings back virtually 100% of their passing which was a major key to their success last year. But, unlike ASU - Kansas brings back 100% of their setting (although it is doubtful that ASU sees a falloff from Ung). Kansas is likely starting 5 seniors (Elnady still has an extra year of eligibility if she wants to stick around for a 6th season). Instead of bringing in the new set of Jayhawks in 2025 - Kansas was able to bring in a full class this season. This gives them a very deep roster and probably helps in the transition to next year. IF - Kansas can get more production from their middles this year, then they will be among the best teams in the country. Last season - Kansas only got 2.7 k/s combined from their MB's and at only ~ .270. Improvement here will be required to help offset the loss of Cooper.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 12, 2024 8:51:51 GMT -5
So here are my rankings. Broken by tiers:
Tier 1: 1. Kansas 2. Arizona State 3. Baylor 4. BYU
These are the likely Big 12 title contenders with the goal also being a tournament host this year. I think Kansas and Arizona State are a tick ahead of Baylor and BYU - as they bring back more production from last season and have a Lot of seniors/graduates starting. Baylor and BYU are much younger and loaded with multiple years of top level recruiting that gives them some upside.
Tier 2: 5. Kansas State 6. TCU 7. Iowa State
Missing the tournament for any of these teams would be a major disappointment. Upside is to move up into tier 1.
Tier 3: 8. Houston 9. Arizona 10. Colorado 11. UCF 12. Utah 13. Cincinnati
Making the tournament is the goal for each of these teams. Houston is/was a bit of a tweener here, but the loss of Morrin for the season hurts.
Tier 4: 14. Texas Tech 15. West Virginia
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Post by bymac on Aug 12, 2024 9:38:28 GMT -5
#2 ARIZONA STATE2023 Record: 28-7 (14-6) 2023 Pablo: #9 (1st in conference) 2023 NCAA Tournament: Yes (lost in the 3rd round) 4 or 7 starters return 2X conference schedule: Arizona, BYU, Colorado, Utah Players Lost: Mart Levinska - OH Shannon Shields - S Maddie McLaughlin - OH Players Returning: Geli Cyr - OH Roberta Rabelo - OH Claire Jeter - MB Mary Shroll - L Shania Cromartie - OH Estella Zatechka - DS Player Additions: Argentina Ung - S (transfer from Washington State) Savannah Kjolhede - MB (transfer from Indiana) Bailey Miller - OH (transfer from West Virginia) Bella Faria - OH (freshman) Jadyn Wilgus - MB (freshman) Projected Starters: S: Argentina Ung - 6-0 (GR) OH: Geli Cyr - 5-10 (SR) OH: Bailey Miller - 6-3 (JR) OH: Roberta Rabelo - 6-0 (GR) MB: Claire Jeter - 6-3 (GR) MB: Savannah Kjolhede - 6-3 (GR) L: Mary Shroll - 5-8 (GR) DS: Estella Zatechka - 5-8 (JR) That went better than expected in 2023. In 2022, Arizona State went 7-13 in conference (9th place) and was Pablo #77 (which would have been 13th in the newly constituted Big 12 and almost 20 spots behind #12). They lost their top scorer in Iman Isanovic (Isanovic and Levinska were getting ~ 3.5 kills per set leading the 2022 team) along with about 75% of their serve receive. Shania Cromartie transferred in from Mississippi State (she finished 7th on the team in kills for 2023, but appeared to provide some back row help). Mary Shroll (from LMU) and Estella Zatechka (from Missouri) transferred in for L & DS. Arizona State started out the season winning all 12 of their non-conference matches. This was mostly brushed off as a series of wins against bad competition. It was only after week 3 that Arizona State was getting votes in the coaches' poll. They were 29th in votes in the coaches' poll heading into the Pac 12 schedule. It was only after week 6 that Arizona State cracked the top 25 - coming in at #20 while sporting a 15-1 record. Pablo saw the rise of Arizona much more quickly. It only took until week 2 (when Arizona State was 6-0) that Pablo had Arizona State pegged as the #13 team in the country. The following week - Arizona State came in at #9 in Pablo - the spot where they would end the season. Every returning player for Arizona State saw an uptick in their production. Levinska took on a larger role - going from 3.4 k/s to 4.68 while raising her H% from .280 to .345. She was a complete offensive force. Cyr, Rabelo, and Jeter all saw increases in their k/s and H%. Maddie McLaughlin came in as their 5th hitter - and she hit .346. Shields took over the full time setting and Shroll and Zatechka stabilized their ball handling in the back row. Although there are no readily available stats on serve receive and team defense - it would appear that Arizona State vastly improved those part of the game in 2023. Arizona State just missed out on hosting the first 2 rounds of the NCAA tournament. They advanced out of the 2nd round with a straight set win at BYU. Finally - they lost to Stanford in 4 sets in the 3rd round. Arizona State loses their mega star in Levinska - along with their setter and a productive McLaughlin. However - they return 100% of their serve receive, which I strongly suspect was a huge key to the 2023 success. Argentina Ung comes in from Washington State to set - so there shouldn't be any fall off from the setting position. Transfer Bailey Miller and Savnannah Kjolhede transfer in to replace Levinska and McLaughlin. Shania Cromartie returns as a multidimensional backup. 5 of their 7 starters are Graduate players - 7 of the 9 main players are either seniors or graduates. This is an older and very experienced team. I believe the top 2 in my rankings are very close heading into this season. There are also several important similarities between these two teams in what they bring back. Many are going to look at the production lost from Levinska to be irreplaceable. But this team brings back 100% of their serve receive (which is such a key). I don't know where their team goes after this year - there is a lot being put into this season - because next year it will be a complete makeover. Winning the conference is the goal - and very much attainable. Doesn't ASU have another DS transfer coming in? Someone who plays beach and defense? I thought I'd seen that somewhere but I don't recall the name or where she was from.
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Post by volleyl0ver on Aug 12, 2024 9:46:25 GMT -5
I’d love to be proven wrong but still dont see how ASU is expected to be as good as last year without Levinska. She was a special player and her production will be missed
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Post by slxpress on Aug 12, 2024 9:53:42 GMT -5
So here are my rankings. Broken by tiers: Tier 1: 1. Kansas 2. Arizona State 3. Baylor 4. BYU These are the likely Big 12 title contenders with the goal also being a tournament host this year. I think Kansas and Arizona State are a tick ahead of Baylor and BYU - as they bring back more production from last season and have a Lot of seniors/graduates starting. Baylor and BYU are much younger and loaded with multiple years of top level recruiting that gives them some upside. Tier 2: 5. Kansas State 6. TCU 7. Iowa State Missing the tournament for any of these teams would be a major disappointment. Upside is to move up into tier 1. Tier 3: 8. Houston 9. Arizona 10. Colorado 11. UCF 12. Utah 13. Cincinnati Making the tournament is the goal for each of these teams. Houston is/was a bit of a tweener here, but the loss of Morrin for the season hurts. Tier 4: 14. Texas Tech 15. West Virginia Tier 5: OSU Undefeated every year!
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Post by badgerguru on Aug 12, 2024 9:55:03 GMT -5
#2 ARIZONA STATE2023 Record: 28-7 (14-6) 2023 Pablo: #9 (1st in conference) 2023 NCAA Tournament: Yes (lost in the 3rd round) 4 or 7 starters return 2X conference schedule: Arizona, BYU, Colorado, Utah Players Lost: Mart Levinska - OH Shannon Shields - S Maddie McLaughlin - OH Players Returning: Geli Cyr - OH Roberta Rabelo - OH Claire Jeter - MB Mary Shroll - L Shania Cromartie - OH Estella Zatechka - DS Player Additions: Argentina Ung - S (transfer from Washington State) Savannah Kjolhede - MB (transfer from Indiana) Bailey Miller - OH (transfer from West Virginia) Bella Faria - OH (freshman) Jadyn Wilgus - MB (freshman) Projected Starters: S: Argentina Ung - 6-0 (GR) OH: Geli Cyr - 5-10 (SR) OH: Bailey Miller - 6-3 (JR) OH: Roberta Rabelo - 6-0 (GR) MB: Claire Jeter - 6-3 (GR) MB: Savannah Kjolhede - 6-3 (GR) L: Mary Shroll - 5-8 (GR) DS: Estella Zatechka - 5-8 (JR) That went better than expected in 2023. In 2022, Arizona State went 7-13 in conference (9th place) and was Pablo #77 (which would have been 13th in the newly constituted Big 12 and almost 20 spots behind #12). They lost their top scorer in Iman Isanovic (Isanovic and Levinska were getting ~ 3.5 kills per set leading the 2022 team) along with about 75% of their serve receive. Shania Cromartie transferred in from Mississippi State (she finished 7th on the team in kills for 2023, but appeared to provide some back row help). Mary Shroll (from LMU) and Estella Zatechka (from Missouri) transferred in for L & DS. Arizona State started out the season winning all 12 of their non-conference matches. This was mostly brushed off as a series of wins against bad competition. It was only after week 3 that Arizona State was getting votes in the coaches' poll. They were 29th in votes in the coaches' poll heading into the Pac 12 schedule. It was only after week 6 that Arizona State cracked the top 25 - coming in at #20 while sporting a 15-1 record. Pablo saw the rise of Arizona much more quickly. It only took until week 2 (when Arizona State was 6-0) that Pablo had Arizona State pegged as the #13 team in the country. The following week - Arizona State came in at #9 in Pablo - the spot where they would end the season. Every returning player for Arizona State saw an uptick in their production. Levinska took on a larger role - going from 3.4 k/s to 4.68 while raising her H% from .280 to .345. She was a complete offensive force. Cyr, Rabelo, and Jeter all saw increases in their k/s and H%. Maddie McLaughlin came in as their 5th hitter - and she hit .346. Shields took over the full time setting and Shroll and Zatechka stabilized their ball handling in the back row. Although there are no readily available stats on serve receive and team defense - it would appear that Arizona State vastly improved those part of the game in 2023. Arizona State just missed out on hosting the first 2 rounds of the NCAA tournament. They advanced out of the 2nd round with a straight set win at BYU. Finally - they lost to Stanford in 4 sets in the 3rd round. Arizona State loses their mega star in Levinska - along with their setter and a productive McLaughlin. However - they return 100% of their serve receive, which I strongly suspect was a huge key to the 2023 success. Argentina Ung comes in from Washington State to set - so there shouldn't be any fall off from the setting position. Transfer Bailey Miller and Savnannah Kjolhede transfer in to replace Levinska and McLaughlin. Shania Cromartie returns as a multidimensional backup. 5 of their 7 starters are Graduate players - 7 of the 9 main players are either seniors or graduates. This is an older and very experienced team. I believe the top 2 in my rankings are very close heading into this season. There are also several important similarities between these two teams in what they bring back. Many are going to look at the production lost from Levinska to be irreplaceable. But this team brings back 100% of their serve receive (which is such a key). I don't know where their team goes after this year - there is a lot being put into this season - because next year it will be a complete makeover. Winning the conference is the goal - and very much attainable. Doesn't ASU have another DS transfer coming in? Someone who plays beach and defense? I thought I'd seen that somewhere but I don't recall the name or where she was from. That was a flipped commitment from GCU to ASU. So she will be a freshman this year. She followed GCU’s head beach coach when she made the job change
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Post by bymac on Aug 12, 2024 10:11:00 GMT -5
Doesn't ASU have another DS transfer coming in? Someone who plays beach and defense? I thought I'd seen that somewhere but I don't recall the name or where she was from. That was a flipped commitment from GCU to ASU. So she will be a freshman this year. She followed GCU’s head beach coach when she made the job change Gotcha! Not sure why I thought she was a transfer, probably because of the GCU reference. Is she more of a beach player or could she help this season?
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Post by badgerguru on Aug 12, 2024 10:22:09 GMT -5
That was a flipped commitment from GCU to ASU. So she will be a freshman this year. She followed GCU’s head beach coach when she made the job change Gotcha! Not sure why I thought she was a transfer, probably because of the GCU reference. Is she more of a beach player or could she help this season? Personally, I’m not so sure but I remember others saying that she looks to be the next lib after Shroll. I think beach was more of her focus since she was never committed to indoor for GCU, but could potentially help DS this season. There’s video of her highlights somewhere
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 12, 2024 12:18:29 GMT -5
Clear homer pick /s. In all seriousness, you've done a great job with these write-ups.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 12, 2024 13:31:22 GMT -5
Clear homer pick /s. In all seriousness, you've done a great job with these write-ups. Ha! I meant to mention my homer pick of Kansas at #1 in their writeup but forgot. Now, That is taken care of.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
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Posts: 12,849
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 12, 2024 13:51:49 GMT -5
#8 in conference seems like an unlikely drop to me. Way too much depth on the roster - even a couple major injuries and they are probably right back where they have been the last couple years. Also, Baylor has a really good coach. I tend to think that in almost any sport, a really good coach will figure out a way to at least be competitive. I think this raises an interesting question - what is the impact of coaching in college VB? It is my opinion that in college football, coaching is the most important thing. Good coaching can win w/o great recruiting and not so good coaches do not win with great recruiting. It seems like we see this all the time - not everyone has won at Alabama or Georgia, but we do know 2 coaches that won all the time there and several coaches that didn't. We see programs die with some coaches and thrive with others, while having similar recruiting. In college basketball - coaching is important, but not nearly as important as football. In volleyball - I think it is 90% recruiting and 10% coaching (unless we want to say that good coaching is attracting better recruits). I cannot name a VB coach that failed with great recruiting? And there are some really good coaches - but they didn't/don't succeed at a very high level without having the players. My thinking - running a college football program is X times harder (more complicated) than running a basketball or volleyball program. There are way more moving pieces that takes a LOT more than just being great at X's and O's. Ryan McGuyre may be really good at running a program, with designing a system and game planning. But what he is really good at (compared to his predecessors) - he recruits a lot of talent. Recruiting a lot of talent in college volleyball is almost a guaranteed success.
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 12, 2024 17:13:38 GMT -5
Also, Baylor has a really good coach. I tend to think that in almost any sport, a really good coach will figure out a way to at least be competitive. I think this raises an interesting question - what is the impact of coaching in college VB? It is my opinion that in college football, coaching is the most important thing. Good coaching can win w/o great recruiting and not so good coaches do not win with great recruiting. It seems like we see this all the time - not everyone has won at Alabama or Georgia, but we do know 2 coaches that won all the time there and several coaches that didn't. We see programs die with some coaches and thrive with others, while having similar recruiting. In college basketball - coaching is important, but not nearly as important as football. In volleyball - I think it is 90% recruiting and 10% coaching (unless we want to say that good coaching is attracting better recruits). I cannot name a VB coach that failed with great recruiting? And there are some really good coaches - but they didn't/don't succeed at a very high level without having the players. My thinking - running a college football program is X times harder (more complicated) than running a basketball or volleyball program. There are way more moving pieces that takes a LOT more than just being great at X's and O's. Ryan McGuyre may be really good at running a program, with designing a system and game planning. But what he is really good at (compared to his predecessors) - he recruits a lot of talent. Recruiting a lot of talent in college volleyball is almost a guaranteed success. In college, I don't think it's really possible to separate recruiting from coaching, since recruiting is probably the most important part of any college coach's job. A bad coach (separate from their recruiting ability) can squander good recruiting, and a great coach can get more out of middling talent than others. But I agree that it's mostly about the talent. And that is true of nearly every college sport that I can think of. I think you may be underestimating how important recruiting is in football. There's a reason why the national champions nearly always have multiple top 10 if not top 5 recruiting classes. Michigan was a bit of an anomaly in that they had "only" the 14th-best talent based on recruiting. But anyone could see that this senior-laden team was absolutely loaded with talent, with 13 players taken in the NFL draft and seven in the top 100. So what that tells me is that they did a great job of identifying players that the recruiting services undervalued and developed them into great players. Also, look at someone like Urban Meyer. He is a great college coach primarily because he is an excellent recruiter and nearly always enjoys a huge talent advantage over his opponents. When he went to the NFL, he didn't have that talent advantage anymore. And he quickly got fired after less than a season, arguably the worst coach in NFL history.
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Post by ay2013 on Aug 13, 2024 2:58:15 GMT -5
If the right players make a serious advancement this year - this team will easily be a top 10 team next year. That would have to be a pretty big jump if you ask me. A brand new setter, a new passing rotation (that was suspect to begin with), with no proven scorers easily being a top 10 team the following year?
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 13, 2024 8:14:45 GMT -5
If the right players make a serious advancement this year - this team will easily be a top 10 team next year. That would have to be a pretty big jump if you ask me. A brand new setter, a new passing rotation (that was suspect to begin with), with no proven scorers easily being a top 10 team the following year? By next year - I was referring to 2025. If Little becomes a star player and Bower works out as the setter (and a couple other of their highly regarded players become solid). The team this year wins the B12 or is a something around a Pablo #20 team - then the addition of Davis and Blamires next season has the makings of a top 10 team in 2025.
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Post by ay2013 on Aug 13, 2024 9:17:09 GMT -5
That would have to be a pretty big jump if you ask me. A brand new setter, a new passing rotation (that was suspect to begin with), with no proven scorers easily being a top 10 team the following year? By next year - I was referring to 2025. If Little becomes a star player and Bower works out as the setter (and a couple other of their highly regarded players become solid). The team this year wins the B12 or is a something around a Pablo #20 team - then the addition of Davis and Blamires next season has the makings of a top 10 team in 2025. I get you meant 2025, but that’s still a pretty big jump, IMO.
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