Big 12 2024

[slxpress]

Aug 5, 2024 10:48:07 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

As I make my way through the last 7 teams - a couple of notes.

There is no way I am going to know nearly as much about a team as their fans that are following their team. What I have done:

1) reviewed their roster and look at the 2022 and 2023 stats. I have a good chance of missing a quality player that may have skipped a season.
2) review the stats of any transfers coming in.
3) read the team pages here at VT if they have one (I get a lot of information from this and didn't do this last year). This really helps with what people are saying in terms of this year's starters.
4) read press releases on freshman and transfers - sometimes this gives clues on these players. But mostly I am very much blind in terms of freshman, except;
a) I rely on VB Magazine Fab 50 List. This is missing a lot of impact players that could be very close to #50, but not on that list. But for the most part - if they make this list, pretty high probability that they are a good player.
b) I have gotten a chance to watch some of these players at the TC tournament in KC.

So, my top 7 remain for the coming days. I think one thing this process let me know (big picture) - although this conference doesn't have teams at the top like the other 3 power conferences - this conference is very deep with the great majority of the teams having a legit chance to make the tournament. One can see - if things work out well, 'I can see this team being good or much better than I thought'. One only has to look at what Arizona State did last year (#9 in Pablo) compared to the prior season (#77 in Pablo) to have a real-life example of a team massively exceeding expectations to the point of becoming a top 10 team in the country. 11 of the 15 teams had a better Pablo last year than ASU's 2022 season - and two more were very close to that ranking.

Top to bottom my expectation is that it’s the most competitive conference. I think the conference race is going to be very exciting to follow.

[ay2013]

Aug 5, 2024 15:02:20 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Aug 5, 2024 10:48:07 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

As I make my way through the last 7 teams - a couple of notes.

There is no way I am going to know nearly as much about a team as their fans that are following their team. What I have done:

1) reviewed their roster and look at the 2022 and 2023 stats. I have a good chance of missing a quality player that may have skipped a season.
2) review the stats of any transfers coming in.
3) read the team pages here at VT if they have one (I get a lot of information from this and didn't do this last year). This really helps with what people are saying in terms of this year's starters.
4) read press releases on freshman and transfers - sometimes this gives clues on these players. But mostly I am very much blind in terms of freshman, except;
a) I rely on VB Magazine Fab 50 List. This is missing a lot of impact players that could be very close to #50, but not on that list. But for the most part - if they make this list, pretty high probability that they are a good player.
b) I have gotten a chance to watch some of these players at the TC tournament in KC.

So, my top 7 remain for the coming days. I think one thing this process let me know (big picture) - although this conference doesn't have teams at the top like the other 3 power conferences - this conference is very deep with the great majority of the teams having a legit chance to make the tournament. One can see - if things work out well, 'I can see this team being good or much better than I thought'. One only has to look at what Arizona State did last year (#9 in Pablo) compared to the prior season (#77 in Pablo) to have a real-life example of a team massively exceeding expectations to the point of becoming a top 10 team in the country. 11 of the 15 teams had a better Pablo last year than ASU's 2022 season - and two more were very close to that ranking.

Top to bottom my expectation is that it’s the most competitive conference. I think the conference race is going to be very exciting to follow.

I will agree that top to bottom it’s probably the most “competitive”. Even from blue’s ranking list, I don’t see much material difference between Baylor and Houston (4/5) and Utah and Arizona (12/13). But comparatively, on the fundamentals, the Big 12 is nowhere near as strong and deep as the Big 10. I could rather easily see 13 teams from the Big 10 placing in the top 5 of the Big 12 next year, whereas maybe only 1 or 2 teams from the Big 12 placing in the top 5 of the Big 10.

[slxpress]

Aug 5, 2024 15:15:21 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

Aug 5, 2024 15:02:20 GMT -5 slxpress said:

Top to bottom my expectation is that it’s the most competitive conference. I think the conference race is going to be very exciting to follow.

I will agree that top to bottom it’s probably the most “competitive”. Even from blue’s ranking list, I don’t see much material difference between Baylor and Houston (4/5) and Utah and Arizona (12/13). But comparatively, on the fundamentals, the Big 12 is nowhere near as strong and deep as the Big 10. I could rather easily see 13 teams from the Big 10 placing in the top 5 of the Big 12 next year, whereas maybe only 1 or 2 teams from the Big 12 placing in the top 5 of the Big 10.

Yes. I meant from the standpoint of who are going to be the top teams at the end of the year.

I will be shocked if it’s anything other than a Nebraska-Wisconsin battle for the umpteenth year in a row. Just like I’ll be shocked if Texas doesn’t win the SEC.

The ACC is more interesting between Stanford, Louisville, and Pitt, but not as interesting as the Big 12, IMO.

[bluepenquin]

#7 IOWA STATE

2023 Record: 20-10 (11-7)
2023 Pablo: #37 (8th in conference)
2023 NCAA Tournament: Yes (lost in the 1st round)

5 of 7 starters return
2X conference schedule: Houston, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech

Players Lost:
Jordan Hopp - MB
Alexis Engelbrecht: MB
Annie Hatch - OH

Players Returning:
Nayeli Gonzalez - OH
Maya Duckworth - OH
Lilly Wachholz - RS
Morgan Brandt - S
Brooke Stonestreet - L
Pam McCune - DS
Faith DeRonde - DS

Player Additions:
Tierney Jackson - MB (transfer from West Virginia)
Amiree Hendricks-Walker - MB (transfer from South Florida)
Rachel Van Gorp - L/OH (freshman)
Shae Pearson - MB (freshman)
Emily Bobbitt - S (freshman)

Projected Starters:
S: Morgan Brandt - 6-0 (JR)
OH: Nayeli Gonzalez - 6-2 (SO)
OH: Maya Duckworth - 5-9 (JR)
MB: Tierney Jackson - 6-4 (JR)
MB: Pam McCune - 6-0 (SO)
RS: Lilly Wachholz - 6-2 (SO)
L: Brooke Stonestreet - 5-10 (SR)
DS: Rachel Van Gorp - 5-9 (FR)

Iowa State lost half of their starters including their top scorer (Eleanor Holthaus) and 3 of the their top 5. They also lost one of their setters (Jaden Newsome) - yet 2023 was in improvement and an NCAA tournament bid. Freshman Nayeli Gonzalez (Fab 50) replaced Holthaus and was just as good or possibly a bit better. Freshman Lilly Wachholz was 3rd on the team in scoring as a freshman RS. And Morgan Brandt took over all of the setting. It was a very successful year - aided by going 7-1 in 5th sets.

The 2024 team looks to be very young - with only 1 senior projected to start in libero Brooke Stonestreet. The team will need to replace both MB - with West Virginia transfer Tierney Jackson being one of them. The 2nd MB position will probably come down to either sophomore Pam McCune (who hit 322 in 59 sets last year as a freshman) or South Florida transfer Amiree Hendricks-Walker who missed the 2023 season. The top 3 scorers return - the starting pins - Gonzalez, Duckworth, and Wachholz. Iowa State brings in VB Mag Fab 50 Rachel Van Gorp - who has played OH her entire club life, but looks like she will be the future libero. Van Gorp is very similar to Bien for Kansas - down to having very similar mannerisms. I could see Iowa State using her in a similar role as Bien - DS on the backrow for Duckworth and potentially play the front row if needed.

I like Iowa State - I think they will be better than last year. This is a very young team. I also love the way they are recruiting right now. They are stockpiling OH - and usually OH that can play 6 rotations. In 2022 they bring in Duckworth and Wachholz (Wachholz redshirted). In 2023 they bring in Fab 50 recruit Nayli Gonzalez who ended up being 1st team all Big 12 in her freshman year. This year they bring in OH Rachel Van Gorp who is a Fab 50 recruit and should be an elite passer. Next year (2025) - they bring in 2 more OH. Mesaiya Bettis (Northern Lights) is likely to be a Fab 50 recruit - and given that she is 6-0, I am going to bet she is very much capable of playing the back row in college (I haven't seen her play yet) and also Alea Goolsby who has been playing up a year in club and is the other OH to Van Gorp on her club team - and there is no doubt she can handle the back row as an OH. Other than Gonzalez - ISU has been going after undersized OH that can play 6 positions (and most of them are pretty highly regarded). For me - if you are going to stockpile a position - this is the one I would use and I like what they are doing on the recruiting trail.

[bluepenquin]

#6 TCU

2023 Record: 17-15 (8-10)
2023 Pablo: #33 (7th in conference)
2023 NCAA Tournament: Yes (lost in 2nd round)

4 of 7 starters return
2X conference schedule: Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, Texas Tech

Players Lost:
Audrey Nails - OH
Brianna Green - MB
Riley Buckley - S
Julia Adams - OH
Taylor Raiola - OH

Players Returning:
Melanie Parra - OH
Jaylyn Gibson - OH
Sarah Sylvester - MB
Lily Nicholson - S
Cecily Bramschreiber - L

Player Additions:
Becca Kelley - OH (transfer from Oregon)
Alexa Robinson - MB (transfer from LSU)
Stephanie Young - S (transfer from Texas A&M Corpus Christi)
Melanie McGann - OH (transfer from West Virginia)
Mikala Young - OH (freshman)
Alice Volpe - DS/L (freshman)
Evan Hendrix - OH (freshman)

Projected Starters:
S: Lily Nicholson - 5-11 (SO)
OH: Melanie Parra - 5-11 (JR)
OH: Jaylyn Gibson - 6-0 (JR)
OH: Becca Kelley - 6-3 (FR)
MB: Sarah Sylvester - 6-3 (JR)
MB: Alexa Roberson - 6-4 (SO)
L: Cecily Bramschreiber - 5-9 (SR)

2023 seemed like an uneven season for TCU - following up an injury plagued 2022. They started out losing their first 3 matches of the season - but then came back with quality non-conference wins over Georgia (36), Utah State (43), Texas A&M (51), Hawaii (32), and Florida State (27). They beat Florida State again in the 1st round of the tournament before losing to Arkansas in the 2nd round. Most of their offense came from the 3 pins (Parra, Gibson, and Nalls). Transfer Riley Buckley was doing the setting, but freshman Lily Nicholson ended up being the setter. I don't know the story on Buckley - but she isn't on the roster and I am not sure if she transferred somewhere (sounds like an injury?).

1st team B12 Parra and 2nd team B12 Gibson return at the pins. Para is a 6 rotation player that got over 4 kills per set last year, while Gibson played the front row (3.2 k/s, .256) - I assume she was the RS. Cecily Bramschreiber returns as the libero - and these are probably the only guaranteed starters for this year. Replacing Audrey Nalls (OH) and Brianna Green (MB) are the main challenges for this season. For the other OH - Becca Kelley seems like the likely choice. Kelley was redshirted in her freshman year at Oregon and was a Fab 50 recruit in 2023 - she seems like the likely replacement. They also have freshman Mikala Young. Middle blocker will likely be a couple of players that started last year in Sylvester and Roberson (LSU). Setter is likely to be Nicholson again, but there is a chance that transfer Stephanie Young becomes the setter.

I think TCU will be similar to potentially better than last year. Parra is possibly the best player in the conference and should again provide the bulk of their scoring. Becca Kelley could be very good - which is the key to them improving on last season. But then - there is some downside here with Parra staying healthy and not getting similar production out of the middle as they did with Green last year.  They also lose some viable veteran replacements in Julia Adams and Taylor Raiola.  

[avid 2.0]

Aug 5, 2024 14:32:18 GMT -5 houstonbear15 said:

I wonder when the Big 12 is releasing preseason polls and players. They are much behind normal schedule

2024 Big 12 Volleyball Preseason Poll big12sports.com/news/2024/7/31/2024-big-12-volleyball-preseason-poll-awards-released.aspx

Kansas (6), 173 points
BYU (4), 168 points
Arizona State (3), 158 points
TCU (1), 146 points
Baylor, 144 points
Iowa State, 142 points
K-State (1), 141 points
Houston, 105 points
Utah, 97 points
Colorado, 75 points
UCF, 65 points
Arizona, 54 points
Cincinnati, 43 points
West Virginia, 33 points
Texas Tech, 31 points

First-place votes in parenthesis.


2024 Big 12 Volleyball Preseason Player of the Year
Melanie Parra, TCU, OH, Sr.
2024 Big 12 Volleyball Preseason Freshman of the Year
Zoey Burgess, Kansas, MB

2024 Big 12 Volleyball Preseason Team
Jaelyn Hodge, Arizona, OH, Fifth Year
Claire Jeter, Arizona State, MB, Gr.
Argentina Ung, Arizona State, S, Gr.
Lauren Briseño, Baylor, L/DS, Sr. ^
Elise McGhee, Baylor, OH, Sr. #
Mia Lee, BYU, MB/OPP, So. !
Kate Prior, BYU, OPP/MB, Jr.
Taylor Simpson, Colorado, S, Sr.
Kate Georgiades, Houston, L, Gr.* #
Nayeli Gonzalez, Iowa State, OH, So.* # !
London Davis, Kansas, OPP, Jr. ^
Ayah Elnady, Kansas, OH, Jr. #
Camryn Turner, Kansas, S, Jr.* #
Aliyah Carter, K-State, OH, Gr. #
Izzi Szulczewski, K-State, S, Sr.
Jalyn Gibson, TCU, OH, Jr. ^
Melanie Parra, TCU, OH, Sr.* #
Lauren Jardine, Utah, OH, Sr.

Players are listed alphabetically by school.
* indicates unanimous selection.
# - 2023 All-Big 12 First Team
^ - 2023 All-Big 12 Second Team
! – 2023 All-Big 12 Rookie Team

[uofaGRAD]

I’m not sure Jaelyn is even starting this season according to #rumblings

I really hope she is though (Robey would’ve been a 10x better choice for this)

[vballfreak808]

4-7 is all very close. The battle in the Big 12 without Texas will be very interesting. Also I know Texas Tech lost quite a bit but I’m surprised they are below West Virginia, they have better additions IMO

[houstonbear15]

Was really expecting Manuela Bibinbe to be on the Preseason Team... really not much love to MBs in general on the list

[JJVb]

Who votes for these preseason teams? The coaches? Some of them are head scratchers and I could see others that should be on it.

[ay2013]

Aug 7, 2024 12:30:03 GMT -5 JJVb said:

Who votes for these preseason teams? The coaches? Some of them are head scratchers and I could see others that should be on it.

also, some not being unanimous.....choices.

[bluepenquin]

Interesting having Zoey Burgess over Cisneros for Freshman of the Year. Really - those are the only two clear choices at this time (they are the only ones of the 4 VB Fab 50 to likely start this year). I would have gone with Cisneros, but I think Burgess is also a good choice.

Freshman that I think could start this year:

Nina Svetina - OH (West Virginia)
Fallon Stewart - OH (Cincinnati)
Isabello Marco - S (Utah)
Sasha Cohen - MB (UCF)
Maria Splawska - MB (Colorado)
Tatum Johnson - MB (Colorado)
Avery Scoggins - S (Arizona)
Carlie Cisneros - OH (Arizona)
Rachel Van Gorp - L (Iowa State)
Becca Kelley - OH (TCU)
Zoey Burgess - MB (Kansas)
Grace Nelson - OH (Kansas)
Lulu Uluave - L (BYU)
Harely Kreck - S (Baylor)

[JJVb]

Aug 7, 2024 13:48:19 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Interesting having Zoey Burgess over Cisneros for Freshman of the Year. Really - those are the only two clear choices at this time (they are the only ones of the 4 VB Fab 50 to likely start this year). I would have gone with Cisneros, but I think Burgess is also a good choice.

Freshman that I think could start this year:

Nina Svetina - OH (West Virginia)
Fallon Stewart - OH (Cincinnati)
Isabello Marco - S (Utah)
Sasha Cohen - MB (UCF)
Maria Splawska - MB (Colorado)
Tatum Johnson - MB (Colorado)
Avery Scoggins - S (Arizona)
Carlie Cisneros - OH (Arizona)
Rachel Van Gorp - L (Iowa State)
Becca Kelley - OH (TCU)
Zoey Burgess - MB (Kansas)
Grace Nelson - OH (Kansas)
Lulu Uluave - L (BYU)
Harely Kreck - S (Baylor)

Agreed!

[houstonbear15]

Aug 7, 2024 13:48:19 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Interesting having Zoey Burgess over Cisneros for Freshman of the Year. Really - those are the only two clear choices at this time (they are the only ones of the 4 VB Fab 50 to likely start this year). I would have gone with Cisneros, but I think Burgess is also a good choice.

Freshman that I think could start this year:

Nina Svetina - OH (West Virginia)
Fallon Stewart - OH (Cincinnati)
Isabello Marco - S (Utah)
Sasha Cohen - MB (UCF)
Maria Splawska - MB (Colorado)
Tatum Johnson - MB (Colorado)
Avery Scoggins - S (Arizona)
Carlie Cisneros - OH (Arizona)
Rachel Van Gorp - L (Iowa State)
Becca Kelley - OH (TCU)
Zoey Burgess - MB (Kansas)
Grace Nelson - OH (Kansas)
Lulu Uluave - L (BYU)
Harely Kreck - S (Baylor)

Wouldn’t be surprised if Grace Carroll eventually beat out Sczech for Baylor’s OPP spot, but then I also wouldn’t be surprised if she redshirted this season either.

[avid 2.0]

idk if this is an unpopular take.... but preseason freshmen of the year award is just ??