Big 12 2024

[notfromaroundhere]

Jul 31, 2024 8:42:21 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

#13 CINCINNATI

2023 Record: 12-16 (5-13)
2023 Pablo: #83 (12th in Conference)
NCAA Tournament: No

Returning Starters: (5 of 7)
2X Conference Schedule: Baylor, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

Players Lost:
Carly Skrabak - L
Elissa Alcantara - OH
Jadyn Bauss - OH
Shaye Eggleston - OH


Players Returning:
Katelyn Lefler - S
Abby Walker - OH
Zeta Washington - MB
Carly Glendinning - JR
Ligia Williams - MB
Kayla Hostetler - DS
Julie Wittekind - DS

Player Additions:
Sydney Nolan - OH (transfer from North Carolina)
Fallon Steward - OH (Freshman)
Janelle Green - S (Freshman)

Projected Starters:
S: Katelyn Lefler: 6-0 SR
OH: Carly Glendinning: 6-2 JR
OH: Sydney Nolan: 6-4 SO
MB: Zeta Washington: 6-2 SO
MB: Ligia Williams: 5-11 JR
L: Kayla Hostetler: 5-6 SO
DS: Julie Wittekind: 5-8 SR

2023 could have turned out better. Jadyn Bauss transferred from SMU and was their best player, but only played in 11 matches. Shaye Eggleston only played in 5 matches. I assume both was due to injury, and that most certainly hurt the team. Freshman Zeta Washington solidified the MB position (2023 Fab 50 recruit). Abby Walker led the team in scoring from the RS. And Illinois State transfer Katelyn Lefler took over the setting for the entire season (Caroline Endres started in 2022, didn't play in 2023, and is still on the roster). Carly Glendinning remained as a 6 rotation OH but seemed to take a step back in 2023.

Walker, Washington, and Lefler provide a solid foundation heading into 2024. Hopefully Glendinning can get back to her freshman year performance (or improve on it). Fallon Stewart could very easily be the 2nd OH - probably between her and Sydney Nolan. Stewart played 6 rotations in club, but I think she probably needs more work there at the next level. I think she should be fine on the front row. Williams returns as the 2nd MB. The team loses their libero but bring back both of their DS's. Freshman Janelle Green (daughter of NFL QB Trent Green) is possibly the setter after this year and they still have 2022 starting setter Endres.

I went back and forth between Cincinnati and who ends up #12, but finally settled with Cincinnati here. I think they should be better than last year, and I do think they are recruiting pretty well these days.

Did Amanda Mack decommit?

[bluepenquin]

Aug 1, 2024 8:46:50 GMT -5 notfromaroundhere said:

Jul 31, 2024 8:42:21 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Did Amanda Mack decommit?

She is on the roster - maybe she will be good?  I don't know much about her - IMG Academy recruit.

[bluepenquin]

#11 UCF

2023 Record: 17-12 (8-10)
2023 Pablo: #51 (10th in Conference)
2023 NCAA Tournament: No

4 of 7 starters returning
2X conference schedule: Cincinnati, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia

Players Lost:
Lauren Clark - OH
Abby Hansen - MB
Claudia Dillon - MB

Players Returning:
Abby Schomers - S
Emily Wilson - OH
Avah Armour - RS
Chloe Scheer - L
Katlyn Grimes - DS
Britt Carlson - OH
Heidi Bonde - OH

Player Addiitions:
Alexia Kuehl - MB (transfer from Colorado)
Mya Ball - S (Freshman)

Projected Starters:
S: Abby Schomers: 6-0 (SO)
OH: Emily Wilson: 6-3 (SR)
OH: Britt Carlson: 6-4 (SO)
MB: Alexia Kuehl: 6-6 (SR)
MB: Sasha Cohen: 6-2 (FR)
L: Chloe Scheer: 5-8 (GR)
DS: Katelyn Grimes: 5-6 (SR)

UCF didn't fall as far as many predicted with the loss of McKenna Melville and setter Amber Olson. Redshirt freshman Abby Schomers was very good taking over the setting and Emily Wilson picked up some of the loss of Melville (but no one was going to be as close to as good as Melville). Both MB returned for their final season and was as productive as before. Lauren Clark and freshman Avah Armour replaced Kari Zumach and Heidi Bonde with similar production. UCF went 9-2 in the nonconference with a 5 set loss to Wake Forest and a predictable loss to Purdue. They did sweep Florida State and took down Illinois in 5 sets. UCF won their 1st 7 games in conference to bring their record to 16-2 before hitting a very backloaded conference schedule - losing 10 of their last 11 matches and the last 7 in a row. What may look like 2 completely different teams based on their early strong record and so many losses to end the season, was most likely just a function of the schedule.

The 2024 team returns 4 starters which includes pretty much their entire first contact. Britt Carlson and/or Heidi Bonde should be able to replace Clark. Bonde - who had started in the past only played in 9 matches, so this probably was injury related? Carlson (transfer from Washington State) only played in 12 matches - both Bonde and Carlson had pretty good rate stats. UCF seems set with Wilson (OH), Schomers (S), Scheer (L), and Grimes (DS). The real question for this team will be replacing both middle blockers (who have been very effective for UCF for a while. Colorado transfer Alexia Kuehl should be one of the starters. No clue on who the other starter will be - only redshirt freshman Sasha Cohen and sophomore Megan Holland are on the roster for the position - neither with any experience. Of note - freshman Mya Ball is the daughter of Loy Ball.

My expectation is that UCF should be rather similar to last year's team. I think there is some real downside and risk at middle blocker. Alexia Kuehl hit .345 for Colorado last year, but missed around 10 matches. She started the entire year the year before hitting .297. UCF will be second to none in terms of size on the floor.

[bluepenquin]

#10 COLORADO

2023 Record: 16-15 (8-12)
2023 Pablo: #49 (9th in Conference)
2023 NCAA Tournament: No

3 of 7 starters returning
2X conference schedule: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Utah

Players Lost:
Maya Tabron - OH
Lexi Hadrych - OH
Skyy Howard - MB
Alexia Kuehl - MB (transfer to UCF)
Morgan Riddle - L

Players Returning:
Taylor Simpson - S
Lily Dwinell - OH
Cayla Payne - MB
Ana Burilovic - OH
Sydney Jordan - OH
Emma Torstenson - DS
Avery Bolles - Server

Player Additions:
Sarah Morton - L (transfer from Auburn)
Maria Splawska - MB
Gwenyth Schiff - OH
Tatum Johnson - MB

Projected Starters:
S: Taylor Simpson: 5-11 (SR)
OH: Ana Burilovic: 6-1 (SO)
OH: Sydney Jordan: 6-3 (SO)
MB: Cayla Payne: 6-4 (SO)
MB: Maria Splawska: 6-2 (FR)
RS: Lily Dwinell: 6-2 (SO)
L: Sarah Morton: 5-6 (SO)
DS: Emma Torstenson: 5-9 (JR)

2023 was probably a disappointment for Colorado - they returned their top 2 scorers (Maya Tabron and Lexi Hadrych), setter (Taylor Simpson) and brought in MB Skyy Howard. 2022 was a tournament team (#31 in Pablo) that ended with a 1st round loss to Rice. However - they lost most of their serve receive and weren't quite as healthy as that 22 team. Colorado ended up using 5 freshman who saw significant court time - which may serve them well for this year.

Colorado loses their top 2 scorers (Tabron, Hadrych). They lose both MB in Howard (who was 3rd in scoring and a great blocker) and Kuehl who missed time with an injury(?). They lose their libero (Riddle). That is a lot of production lost and creates a lot of uncertainty on the upcoming season. The good news - they return setter Taylor Simpson, bring in a quality libero replacement from Auburn, all 5 of their freshman from last year, and what appears to be another strong recruiting class for this season. Sophomores Burilovic, Jordan, and Dwinell look to be returning at the pins and freshman Gwenyth Schiff could be in the mix. Cayla Payne did fine starting as a freshman last year at MB and the other spot will come down to freshman Splawska (recruited from Poland) or Tatum Johnson. Transfer Morton is the libero and Torstenson returns as the DS. Worth mentioning is serving specialist Avery Bolles - who tallied 52 aces on just 54 errors in her freshman season.

For me - just too many uncertainties and so much production lost for me to have Colorado ranked higher than this. However, this is a very young team which increases the upside. Moving to the Big 12 will likely increase their odds of making the tournament - but they will need to be much better than the 10th best team in conference.

[VolleyballFella]

Aug 3, 2024 6:22:55 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

#10 COLORADO

2023 Record: 16-15 (8-12)
2023 Pablo: #49 (9th in Conference)
2023 NCAA Tournament: No

3 of 7 starters returning
2X conference schedule: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Utah

Players Lost:
Maya Tabron - OH
Lexi Hadrych - OH
Skyy Howard - MB
Alexia Kuehl - MB (transfer to UCF)
Morgan Riddle - L

Players Returning:
Taylor Simpson - S
Lily Dwinell - OH
Cayla Payne - MB
Ana Burilovic - OH
Sydney Jordan - OH
Emma Torstenson - DS
Avery Bolles - Server

Player Additions:
Sarah Morton - L (transfer from Auburn)
Maria Splawska - MB
Gwenyth Schiff - OH
Tatum Johnson - MB

Projected Starters:
S: Taylor Simpson: 5-11 (SR)
OH: Ana Burilovic: 6-1 (SO)
OH: Sydney Jordan: 6-3 (SO)
MB: Cayla Payne: 6-4 (SO)
MB: Maria Splawska: 6-2 (FR)
RS: Lily Dwinell: 6-2 (SO)
L: Sarah Morton: 5-6 (SO)
DS: Emma Torstenson: 5-9 (JR)

2023 was probably a disappointment for Colorado - they returned their top 2 scorers (Maya Tabron and Lexi Hadrych), setter (Taylor Simpson) and brought in MB Skyy Howard. 2022 was a tournament team (#31 in Pablo) that ended with a 1st round loss to Rice. However - they lost most of their serve receive and weren't quite as healthy as that 22 team. Colorado ended up using 5 freshman who saw significant court time - which may serve them well for this year.

Colorado loses their top 2 scorers (Tabron, Hadrych). They lose both MB in Howard (who was 3rd in scoring and a great blocker) and Kuehl who missed time with an injury(?). They lose their libero (Riddle). That is a lot of production lost and creates a lot of uncertainty on the upcoming season. The good news - they return setter Taylor Simpson, bring in a quality libero replacement from Auburn, all 5 of their freshman from last year, and what appears to be another strong recruiting class for this season. Sophomores Burilovic, Jordan, and Dwinell look to be returning at the pins and freshman Gwenyth Schiff could be in the mix. Cayla Payne did fine starting as a freshman last year at MB and the other spot will come down to freshman Splawska (recruited from Poland) or Tatum Johnson. Transfer Morton is the libero and Torstenson returns as the DS. Worth mentioning is serving specialist Avery Bolles - who tallied 52 aces on just 54 errors in her freshman season.

For me - just too many uncertainties and so much production lost for me to have Colorado ranked higher than this. However, this is a very young team which increases the upside. Moving to the Big 12 will likely increase their odds of making the tournament - but they will need to be much better than the 10th best team in conference.

Good overall analysis here. 

CU will have probably made the Tourney if Hadrych wasn't out for so many matches.  Bummer.  This crap happens to CU too many seasons.

I would say Colorado could finish anywhere between 6th and 11th, so I would put them at 8th or 9th as an average (because of the uncertainty... especially at OH production).  Defense and reception will likely be better.  CU always develops good blocking from folks that may not have been nearly as good at net defense before coming to Colorado, so it will likely come down to who can put balls down and get some kill production.

[bluepenquin]

#9 ARIZONA

2023 Record: 8-23 (3-17)
2023 Pablo: #90 (13th in Conference)
2023 NCAA Tournament: No

4 of 7 starters returning
2X conference schedule: Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, Utah

Players Lost:
Sofia Maldonado Diaz - OH
Ncole Briggs - MB (transferred to New Mexico State)
Joy Galles - L
Puk Stubbe - RS (left team in middle of season)

Players Returning:
Ana Heath - S
Jaelyn Hodge - OH
Jordan Wilson - OH
Alayna Johnson - MB
Haven Wray - DS
Giorgia Mandotti - DS
Sydnie Vanek - OH

Players Returning:
Kiari Robey - MB (transfer from Florida State)
Amanda DeWitt - RS (transfer from South Florida)
Carlie Cisneros - OH (freshman)
Avery Scoggins - S (freshman)
Adrianna Bridges - MB (freshman)
An den Hamer - RS (freshman)

Projected Starters:
S: Ana Heath - 5-11 (JR)
OH: Jaelyn Hodge - 6-0 (SR+)
OH: Carlie Cisneros - 6-0 (FR)
OH: Jordan Wilson - 6-2 (JR)
MB: Kiari Robey - 6-2 (SR+)
MB: Alayna Johnson - 6-3 (SR)
L: Haven Wray - 5-6 (SR)
DS: Giorgia Mandotti - 5-7 (SO)

I am not sure what went wrong in 2023 - but wrong is what happened. They returned both of their top scorers on the OH for their senior season (Maldonado Diaz and Hodge), productive RS Puk Stubbe, MB Alayna Johnson - and brought in Jordan Wilson from USC. They lost 2 starters to the transfer portal - libero Kamaile Hiapo (BYU) and setter Nicole Briggs (Colorado State), and MB Zyonna Fellows to graduation. Sophomore Ana Heath took over the setting and Joy Galles at libero.

This year should be better - the question is how much better? They lose leading scorer Diaz, but return their next 3 biggest scorers in Hodge, Wilson and Johnson. Robey is a major addition at MB - and then they have possibly the best recruiting class in the conference (at least one of the top 2). Carlie Cisneros is a VB Mag Fab 50 - and the highest touted freshman in the conference. She has the skillset to be a 6 rotation OH on day 1 - and the hope is that she makes an immediate impact. Freshman Avery Scoggins will be competing with Heath for the starting setting position. Amanda DeWitt started at RS for South Florida last year - and An den Hamer (from the Netherlands) is also a true RS. But with Hodge, Wilson, and Cisneros - they could/probably play one of them on the RS? How many of the youngsters will play?

I went back and forth on Arizona and Colorado for #9 - I guess I was intrigued by their freshman class - and how I think Robey will should make an impact. There is certainly a lot of risk to this season - but I think their baseline is really much better than #90 and closer to #50 - with the potential to move up from there.

[Deleted]

This is great. Nice work.

[uofaGRAD]

Freshman setter Avery Scoggins will likely start for Arizona. Hodge has been on and off injured so we’ll see if she starts at opposite or not (we brought in DeWitt and a Netherlands freshman).

I think the middle spot opposite Robey might go to Tucker or Bridges too

[bluepenquin]

#8 HOUSTON

2023 Record: 19-10 (11-7)
2023 Pablo: #16 (4th in Conference)
2023 NCAA Tournament: Yes (lost in the 2nd round)

4 of 9 starters returning
2X conference schedule: Baylor, Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech

Players Lost:
Kenna Sauer - OH
Abbie Jackson - OH
Nena Mbonu - RS
Rachel Tullos - MB
Morgan Janda - S

Players Returning:
Katie Georgiades - L
Katie Corelli - RS
Kellen Morrin - MB
Annie Cooke - S

Player Additions:
Julianna Dalton - OH (transfer from Pittsburgh)
Angela Grieve - OH (transfer from Miami)
Rebecca Rocassin - S (transfer from Jacksonville)
Paige Bernstein - S (transfer from Gardner-Webb
Avery Shimaitis - RS (transfer from Pepperdine)

Projected Starters:
S: Annie Cooke - 5-11 (GR)
S: Paige Bernstein - 6-0 (SR)
OH: Julianna Dalton - 6-5 (GR)
OH: Anela Greive - 6-0 (GR)
MB: Kellen Morrin - 6-4 (SR)
MB: Addisyn Pohl - 6-4 (FR)
RS: Katie Corelli - 6-1 SR
Avery Shimaitis - 6-0 (JR)
L: Katie Georgiades - 5-9 (GR)

Coming off a quality season in 2022, Houston put in a major push for one last chance with a strong set of seniors. They added Kenna Sauer and Nena Mbonu to provide some power on offense and were expected to have a chance to compete at a high level. #16 finishing Pablo implies that it was a successful season. Taking Stanford to the 5th set in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament.

Once, this looked like this would be a complete rebuild for this season - but the transfer portal is Houston's friend, and they are able to make another run at a good season. They return 1st team all-Big 12 libero Georgiades, their 3rd and 4th leading scorers Corelli and Morin, and 1 of their 2 starting setters in Cooke. But the loss of Sauer and Jackson leave a huge hole for this team. For this - in comes Julianna Dalton and Angela Greive to replace. They bring in two starting setters to compete for the 2nd setter position. And Shimaitis for the 2nd RS. The real question mark in terms of starters is the 2nd MB - where the choices are freshman Pohl, or returning players Barakat Rahmon and Ella Wendel.

The real issue with this team is going to be - how well does Dalton and Greive replace Sauer and Jackson? It looks like Dalton got pushed out by Stafford last year with Pittsburgh (or was injured). But in 2022 - Dalton was getting over 2 kills per set while playing 6 rotations. Greive has been playing 6 rotations for Miami and was getting close to 4 kills per set in 2022. I just don't know if this will be as much fire power as Sauer and Jackson - and I also think replacing Abbie Jackson's serve receive is going to be tough.

Houston is the team in the Big 12 most likely to be worse than last year. I don't think they are the 16th best team in the country. But, this is a veteran team with a ton of experience that has been very successful. There is enough talent that this team could be good - and certainly have a chance to make the tournament.

[devilhorns24]

Idk if it changes your rankings, but based off some of her insta posts + comments, pretty sure Kellen Morin tore her ACL in the spring and will be redshirting this year.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C5rR4YKuzkK

[bluepenquin]

Aug 5, 2024 9:13:17 GMT -5 devilhorns24 said:

Idk if it changes your rankings, but based off some of her insta posts + comments, pretty sure Kellen Morin tore her ACL in the spring and will be redshirting this year.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C5rR4YKuzkK

That is a big loss from a team that doesn't appear to have a lot of depth.  I certainly feel comfortable not having them higher than #8.  

[vballfreak808]

Houston also has MB Aidan Conner grad transferring in from Columbia

[bluepenquin]

Aug 5, 2024 10:21:25 GMT -5 vballfreak808 said:

Houston also has MB Aidan Conner grad transferring in from Columbia

6-3 Senior that didn't play in 2020, 2021, and 2023.  She was pretty decent in her one season she played in 2022.  Houston is lacking experience at MB this year for sure.  But I really think the success of this team is mostly going to lie with those two OH transfers coming in.

[bluepenquin]

As I make my way through the last 7 teams - a couple of notes.

There is no way I am going to know nearly as much about a team as their fans that are following their team. What I have done:

1) reviewed their roster and look at the 2022 and 2023 stats. I have a good chance of missing a quality player that may have skipped a season.
2) review the stats of any transfers coming in.
3) read the team pages here at VT if they have one (I get a lot of information from this and didn't do this last year). This really helps with what people are saying in terms of this year's starters.
4) read press releases on freshman and transfers - sometimes this gives clues on these players. But mostly I am very much blind in terms of freshman, except;
a) I rely on VB Magazine Fab 50 List. This is missing a lot of impact players that could be very close to #50, but not on that list. But for the most part - if they make this list, pretty high probability that they are a good player.
b) I have gotten a chance to watch some of these players at the TC tournament in KC.

So, my top 7 remain for the coming days. I think one thing this process let me know (big picture) - although this conference doesn't have teams at the top like the other 3 power conferences - this conference is very deep with the great majority of the teams having a legit chance to make the tournament. One can see - if things work out well, 'I can see this team being good or much better than I thought'. One only has to look at what Arizona State did last year (#9 in Pablo) compared to the prior season (#77 in Pablo) to have a real-life example of a team massively exceeding expectations to the point of becoming a top 10 team in the country. 11 of the 15 teams had a better Pablo last year than ASU's 2022 season - and two more were very close to that ranking.

[houstonbear15]

I wonder when the Big 12 is releasing preseason polls and players. They are much behind normal schedule