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Post by mikegarrison on Jun 25, 2024 11:12:00 GMT -5
Interstingly USA Women's Basketball is -1400. Safe bet or not worth the risk? If it were safe, they wouldn't call it a bet.
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Post by bbg95 on Jun 25, 2024 11:21:25 GMT -5
Interstingly USA Women's Basketball is -1400. Safe bet or not worth the risk? Well, Team USA has won every gold medal since 1996, so it's very likely that they will win again, but it won't pay out much. You have to put up $1400 to get $100. That means that if something calamitous happens, and they don't win the gold medal, you could lose a lot of money.
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Post by WahineFan44 on Jun 25, 2024 15:46:11 GMT -5
I’m assuming Serbia’s odds were tanked from VNL??
Realistically
How do we see the odds/medals
I think based on what I know (which isn’t a lot)
Top tier Italy, Serbia Brazil
Next tier China, USA turkey?
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Post by blue10 on Jun 25, 2024 15:54:40 GMT -5
I’m assuming Serbia’s odds were tanked from VNL?? Realistically How do we see the odds/medals I think based on what I know (which isn’t a lot) Top tier Italy, Serbia Brazil Next tier China, USA turkey? something like this yes
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Post by Steve vb on Jun 26, 2024 0:16:01 GMT -5
I’m assuming Serbia’s odds were tanked from VNL?? Realistically How do we see the odds/medals I think based on what I know (which isn’t a lot) Top tier Italy, Serbia Brazil Next tier China, USA turkey? The only change I would make is adding Poland to the "Next tier".
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Post by n00b on Jun 27, 2024 10:11:38 GMT -5
I’m assuming Serbia’s odds were tanked from VNL?? No. That's not how this works. Sports books make a LOT of money by making sure their lines are pretty close to accurate. Because if they are off, sharp betters will exploit those odds and the book will lose money. The people who put their money where their mouth is don't think Serbia is one of the favorites. They are DEFINITELY smart enough to know the dynamics of VNL and that Serbia sent backups. And they still don't think that they're one of the favorites.
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Post by bbg95 on Jun 27, 2024 10:35:06 GMT -5
I’m assuming Serbia’s odds were tanked from VNL?? No. That's not how this works. Sports books make a LOT of money by making sure their lines are pretty close to accurate. Because if they are off, sharp betters will exploit those odds and the book will lose money. The people who put their money where their mouth is don't think Serbia is one of the favorites. They are DEFINITELY smart enough to know the dynamics of VNL and that Serbia sent backups. And they still don't think that they're one of the favorites. I mean, soft of? It's possible that sharp bettors are also underestimating Serbia. Or maybe they and the sportsbooks are dead on. The lines are often very close to the final results, but there are lots of games with close lines that turn out to be blowouts. Or even among futures, I remember Sweden was +1400 in the Women's World Cup, which felt off. They didn't win the tournament, but they came closer than pre-tournament favorite USA (+250) did (yes, I know that game was close, but Sweden still won, and USA was lucky to escape their group). Serbia seems to be a pretty tough team to evaluate because they clearly didn't care about VNL, but that doesn't mean they'll be great in the Olympics. But they did go undefeated in the 2022 World Championship, so it's not unreasonable to think that they could do well when they send their A team. Anyway, we'll find out soon enough when the Olympics start. Edit: the WWC champion, Spain, was +650 in the pre-tournament odds. They were tied with Germany and behind USA and England (+350).
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Post by mervinswerved on Jun 27, 2024 10:46:03 GMT -5
I would love to know how much action is getting booked on Olympic volleyball.
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Post by bbg95 on Jun 27, 2024 10:48:04 GMT -5
I would love to know how much action is getting booked on Olympic volleyball. I doubt it's very much, especially in the US. I'm guessing it's more a more popular sport to bet on in Europe.
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trojansc
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Posts: 29,112
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Post by trojansc on Jun 27, 2024 12:19:23 GMT -5
I’m assuming Serbia’s odds were tanked from VNL?? No. That's not how this works. Sports books make a LOT of money by making sure their lines are pretty close to accurate. Because if they are off, sharp betters will exploit those odds and the book will lose money. The people who put their money where their mouth is don't think Serbia is one of the favorites. They are DEFINITELY smart enough to know the dynamics of VNL and that Serbia sent backups. And they still don't think that they're one of the favorites. where do you draw the line of one of the favorites in this situation?
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Post by mikegarrison on Jun 27, 2024 12:31:19 GMT -5
Sports books make a LOT of money by making sure their lines are pretty close to accurate. Because if they are off, sharp betters will exploit those odds and the book will lose money. No, they make a lot of money by making sure their lines balance the bets on either side. Being accurate is not their goal at all. It may be a means to an end, but it is not the end itself. They want to make sure that whether Team A or Team B wins, the losers pay off the winners and the bookie gets the percentage from handling the transaction. They don't care if "sharp betters" fleece those who bet with sentimentality or whatever. As long as the line is set so that about half the money is on one side and half the money is on the other side, the bookies really don't care at all whether it is accurate or not. That's not their problem.
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Post by n00b on Jun 27, 2024 12:33:57 GMT -5
Sports books make a LOT of money by making sure their lines are pretty close to accurate. Because if they are off, sharp betters will exploit those odds and the book will lose money. No, they make a lot of money by making sure their lines balance the bets on either side. Being accurate is not their goal at all. They want to make sure that whether Team A or Team B wins, the losers pay off the winners and the bookie gets the percentage from handling the transaction. They don't care if "sharp betters" fleece those who bet with sentimentality or whatever. As long as the line is set so that about half the money is on one side and half the money is on the other side, the bookies really don't care at all whether it is accurate or not. That's not their problem. Undervaluing a team, giving them longer odds and a better payout than their true odds of winning the tournament is NEVER a money-making proposition.
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Post by blue10 on Jun 27, 2024 12:36:28 GMT -5
No, they make a lot of money by making sure their lines balance the bets on either side. Being accurate is not their goal at all. They want to make sure that whether Team A or Team B wins, the losers pay off the winners and the bookie gets the percentage from handling the transaction. They don't care if "sharp betters" fleece those who bet with sentimentality or whatever. As long as the line is set so that about half the money is on one side and half the money is on the other side, the bookies really don't care at all whether it is accurate or not. That's not their problem. Undervaluing a team, giving them longer odds and a better payout than their true odds of winning the tournament is NEVER a money-making proposition. then they don’t know what they are doing tbh. Serbia is a clearly one of the gold favorites. Medaled at every single major event since 2015 and are the back to back reigning world champions and have one of the very best on paper line ups with a TON of big match experience and talent.
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Post by mikegarrison on Jun 27, 2024 12:38:41 GMT -5
No, they make a lot of money by making sure their lines balance the bets on either side. Being accurate is not their goal at all. They want to make sure that whether Team A or Team B wins, the losers pay off the winners and the bookie gets the percentage from handling the transaction. They don't care if "sharp betters" fleece those who bet with sentimentality or whatever. As long as the line is set so that about half the money is on one side and half the money is on the other side, the bookies really don't care at all whether it is accurate or not. That's not their problem. Undervaluing a team, giving them longer odds and a better payout than their true odds of winning the tournament is NEVER a money-making proposition. It is if the money splits evenly. Bookies don't care about what the "real" chances are for the teams in in question. They care about what the people with the money think the chances are. Your argument rests upon the idea that given enough people with enough money, the crowd will be able to accurately figure out the odds, and so if the bookie misreads the odds, the betters will figure it out and the bet will become lopsided. But the bookies' real job is not to figure out the accurate odds for the match. Their job is to figure out what odds the betters will believe is accurate.
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Post by n00b on Jun 27, 2024 12:39:43 GMT -5
No. That's not how this works. Sports books make a LOT of money by making sure their lines are pretty close to accurate. Because if they are off, sharp betters will exploit those odds and the book will lose money. The people who put their money where their mouth is don't think Serbia is one of the favorites. They are DEFINITELY smart enough to know the dynamics of VNL and that Serbia sent backups. And they still don't think that they're one of the favorites. where do you draw the line of one of the favorites in this situation? I wasn't choosing my words particularly well because Serbia probably is "one of" the favorites because of how wide open this tournament is. Would've been more accurate to say that the sharps don't think Serbia has better than a 1-in-8 chance of winning the tournament.
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