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Post by blue10 on Jun 27, 2024 12:40:14 GMT -5
Them having the USA above Serbia in the bookings is hilarious tbh idk what metrics you have to use to get that result…..
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Post by n00b on Jun 27, 2024 12:45:34 GMT -5
Y'all sound really confident. You should make some bets!
In my experience, if there is a surface level "wtf?" line, you should bet in the opposite way of your initial instinct.
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Post by blue10 on Jun 27, 2024 12:46:50 GMT -5
Y'all sound really confident. You should make some bets! In my experience, if there is a surface level "wtf?" line, you should bet in the opposite way of your initial instinct. I mean anyone who has watched volleyball the last 3 years should know having USA higher than Serbia is wtf
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Post by bbg95 on Jun 27, 2024 13:15:26 GMT -5
No, they make a lot of money by making sure their lines balance the bets on either side. Being accurate is not their goal at all. They want to make sure that whether Team A or Team B wins, the losers pay off the winners and the bookie gets the percentage from handling the transaction. They don't care if "sharp betters" fleece those who bet with sentimentality or whatever. As long as the line is set so that about half the money is on one side and half the money is on the other side, the bookies really don't care at all whether it is accurate or not. That's not their problem. Undervaluing a team, giving them longer odds and a better payout than their true odds of winning the tournament is NEVER a money-making proposition. Mike is right. The bookies don't really care what the "true" odds are. They're setting the odds where they think they can attract balanced bets. So if the sharps are also undervaluing a team, then it doesn't really matter. It's not like sharp bettors have absurdly high win rates. They're usually around 55%. And even if the sharp bettors are putting money on one team, the line may not move if there is an equal amount of casual money on the other team.
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Post by trojansc on Jun 27, 2024 13:20:30 GMT -5
Y'all sound really confident. You should make some bets! In my experience, if there is a surface level "wtf?" line, you should bet in the opposite way of your initial instinct. But you know thats not how this works. If I think Serbia is better than USA and has a better chance of winning the VNL, but USA gets eliminated in pool play and Serbia loses the gold medal match, its the same result of me losing money, even though Serbia stood a much better chance of winning it all. FWIW, I’d put Serbia slightly above USA in the group of top favorites. I’m not as high on Turkey, but betting on a pure winner is always difficult.
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Post by bbg95 on Jun 27, 2024 13:31:54 GMT -5
Y'all sound really confident. You should make some bets! In my experience, if there is a surface level "wtf?" line, you should bet in the opposite way of your initial instinct. But you know thats not how this works. If I think Serbia is better than USA and has a better chance of winning the VNL, but USA gets eliminated in pool play and Serbia loses the gold medal match, its the same result of me losing money, even though Serbia stood a much better chance of winning it all. FWIW, I’d put Serbia slightly above USA in the group of top favorites. I’m not as high on Turkey, but betting on a pure winner is always difficult. How would you rank the contenders for the gold medal?
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Post by trojansc on Jun 27, 2024 14:05:48 GMT -5
But you know thats not how this works. If I think Serbia is better than USA and has a better chance of winning the VNL, but USA gets eliminated in pool play and Serbia loses the gold medal match, its the same result of me losing money, even though Serbia stood a much better chance of winning it all. FWIW, I’d put Serbia slightly above USA in the group of top favorites. I’m not as high on Turkey, but betting on a pure winner is always difficult. How would you rank the contenders for the gold medal? Italy-Brazil-Serbia are my favorites to medal if I have to pick three. Not sure there is a significant difference with all of them. Then a little gap with USA-Turkey-China next in line. I don't know about China - they're such a wildcard as things have been . . "weird" for them since COVID and who knows what Zhu Ting brings. USA hasnt won anything all quad so kind of like China - they're due. I question Turkey's consistency and they put a lot of weight on Karakurt and (especially) Vargas. Poland and Japan next. I like Poland better though with a higher ceiling. I don't see Japan winning three knockout matches. Dominicana and Netherlands are last in line. Kenya and France won't survive pool play - but if DOM or NED snuck into the QF's and got a favorable draw (like a JPN/POL QF match... I could see how DOM/NED could have a path to a sneaky bronze - but - bet against it. DOM's starting opposite is out for Paris and Netherlands is good - but unstable and a weaker backrow.
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Post by trojansc on Jun 27, 2024 14:12:30 GMT -5
Serbia's record at the last 4 "big" events
2016 Rio (2nd place) 2018 Wch's (1st place) 2021 Tokyo (3rd place) 2022 WCh's (1st place)
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Post by blue10 on Jun 27, 2024 15:59:01 GMT -5
Serbia's record at the last 4 "big" events 2016 Rio (2nd place) 2018 Wch's (1st place) 2021 Tokyo (3rd place) 2022 WCh's (1st place) so consistent ! That’s not even including the euros that they have either won or gotten silver in every single time too
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Post by Cubicle No More ... on Jun 27, 2024 18:25:47 GMT -5
You could get seriously rich if you bet a lot of money on Kenya and they won. Or, of course, seriously poor if you did the same but they lost. ![](https://media2.giphy.com/media/3og0Iwmv38WmJBrYvS/giphy.gif)
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Post by CAI BIN MUST GO on Jun 29, 2024 11:38:48 GMT -5
Y'all sound really confident. You should make some bets! In my experience, if there is a surface level "wtf?" line, you should bet in the opposite way of your initial instinct. I mean anyone who has watched volleyball the last 3 years should know having USA higher than Serbia is wtf so nobody on this forum? hehe
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Post by maigrey on Jun 29, 2024 12:33:58 GMT -5
No, they make a lot of money by making sure their lines balance the bets on either side. Being accurate is not their goal at all. They want to make sure that whether Team A or Team B wins, the losers pay off the winners and the bookie gets the percentage from handling the transaction. They don't care if "sharp betters" fleece those who bet with sentimentality or whatever. As long as the line is set so that about half the money is on one side and half the money is on the other side, the bookies really don't care at all whether it is accurate or not. That's not their problem. Undervaluing a team, giving them longer odds and a better payout than their true odds of winning the tournament is NEVER a money-making proposition. Not true! The bookies are just in it for the vig. Basically, they charge a fee to process your bet. They set the line initially to where they think they will have half the money on either side of the odds (as previously stated), so all the money that comes in is the money that goes out, minus their cut. That's why the odds constantly change: the house is re-balancing the money distribution. A money-losing proposition would be for a casino to bet its own money on the outcome, which is what your take would do in practice; if I set the odds based on what I think the true probability is of the match, and 60% of the bettors bet on one side, I lose money if they are right and I am wrong. Companies want the guaranteed income, not one that fluctuates. So, they have ZERO interest in what the actual odds are; they just want to make sure they get to take their cut of the total $ bet.
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Post by Flip on Jun 29, 2024 19:48:51 GMT -5
I’m assuming Serbia’s odds were tanked from VNL?? Realistically How do we see the odds/medals I think based on what I know (which isn’t a lot) Top tier Italy, Serbia Brazil Next tier China, USA turkey? I would move Turkiye into theTop Tier, and Poland into the Next Tier, other than that I agree. China and USA would need a lot of things to go right for them to get on a podium this year.
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Post by Flip on Jun 29, 2024 20:07:46 GMT -5
Regarding the odds, when the numbers are first released, I think n00b is correct. That is, the odds provide a sense of team rankings for fans. But after the bets and money start rolling in, MikeG is correct. The bookies constantly adjust the odds so they can cover both sides and still make a profit.
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Post by mberlanda on Jun 30, 2024 6:28:28 GMT -5
Just as a note, bookmakers' odds are calculated according to the number and type of bets received, not on the actual strength of the contenders.
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