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Post by leadbrain on Nov 9, 2010 19:55:47 GMT -5
I checked the rankings on Pablo and the Big West and West Coast Conference should each have 3 teams in the tournament. If you have done this in the past and you are close to what the NCAA does. This is sad. Five teams from the ACC, no way. Cal Poly SLO 3rd place in the Big West would destroy at least two of the five ACC teams. Smokedogg, I have done this in the past and am normally accurate within a couple teams. Just so you know, the NCAA committee does not look at pablo so those rankings are moot for the actual selection process. Cal Poly's 57 RPI probably does not get them into the tournament and their last three matches do not help them very much either. |
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Post by leadbrain on Nov 15, 2010 18:06:25 GMT -5
Getting down to crunch time! Just two weeks remain to play and with a few surprises there are a few new teams that are making a run. Next two weeks should be very interesting with a few questions like will the SEC and ACC get 6 teams in? Will the Big West get more than 2? Will the WCC get more than 1? Should be a fun two weeks!
Here is the breakdown:
America East - 1
Atlantic 10 -1
ACC - 5 (Duke, UNC, FSU, Miami, VA TECH/MARYLAND/GEORGIA TECH)
Atlantic Sun - 1
Big 12 - 5 (Neb, ISU, UT, Oklahoma, Mizzou)
Big East - 2 (Cincy, Louisville)
Big sky - 1
Big South - 1
Big 10 - 8 (Illinois, PSU, Minn, NW, Purdue, OSU, Mich, Indiana)
Big West - 2 (LBSU, CSF)
CAA - 1
Conf USA - 1 (Tulsa)
Horizon - 1
Ivy - 1
Metro - 1
MAC - 2 (WMU, Ball St.)
MEAC - 1
MVC - 4 (UNI, WSU, Missouri St, Creighton)
Mountain West - 2 (CSU, UNM)
NEC - 1
OVC - 1
Pac 10 - 7 (Stan, Cal, USC, UW, UCLA, U of A, Ore)
Patriot - 1
SEC - 6 (UF, LSU, UT, Ole Miss, Auburn, Kentucky)
Southern - 1
Southland - 1
SWAC - 1
Summit - 1
Sun Belt - 2 (WKU, MTSU)
WCC - 1
WAC - 1
The ACC is a total conundrum. Va Tech has the higher RPI of the three teams but both Maryland and Georgia Tech are tied for 3rd in conference while Va Tech is in 7th. Going to be hard to jump down that low for the NCAA to take a 5th team. If the ACC only gets 4 teams in, that leaves the door open for:
Marquette
Villanova
Wisconsin
Cal Poly
UCSB
SMU
Northern Illinois
Pepperdine
With not many games left on most team's schedules, the power conferences are favored heavily because of strength of remaining schedule. I could see any one of the eleven teams I just mentioned getting in on that final line. Going to be a fun two weeks!
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Post by leadbrain on Nov 15, 2010 18:08:56 GMT -5
Forgot to mention that both Maryland and Kentucky were on the outside looking in until big wins this weekend. Maryland beating Duke and Kentucky beating LSU flopped some rankings. Lots of different scenarios could play out, especially with conference tournaments lurking!!
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Post by hoosierman on Nov 15, 2010 18:30:07 GMT -5
You know, after this weekend, I'm thinking that IU has played themselves out of an NCAA selection even though they have some good wins. I hope they can turn it around in these last two weeks! C'mon Hoosiers!
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Post by transformer on Nov 15, 2010 18:40:49 GMT -5
Has any of the conferences finished yet? Are there any automatic bids already taken?
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Post by Thrill of the 'ville on Nov 15, 2010 18:47:45 GMT -5
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Post by pogoball on Nov 15, 2010 19:04:07 GMT -5
With an RPI of 37, a decent record in a top conference and several signature wins (Penn State), I think Indiana is definitely in if they can finish 2-2, probably if they finish 1-3. Losing the last 4 including a home loss to Wisky would be putting themselves in danger, though.
Beat MSU on the road and Wisky at home seems pretty attainable to me, though.
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Post by maddog2020terp on Nov 16, 2010 10:23:52 GMT -5
Hello, everyone. This is my first post here.
I used to work in the athletic department at Maryland and I was a member of the support staff of the volleyball team there from 2007-09. I had no volleyball knowledge at all, but I quickly came to love the game and haven't looked back since. I am still in close contact with the program and follow all their matches. Coach Horsmon told me I should head over here and try to give Maryland a little love. I know the ACC doesn't garner much respect around here and that's probably fair, but I think coach Horsmon is building a really solid program in College Park.
Anyway, I just wanted to see what people thought about Maryland's chances at an at-large bid.
I wasn't even remotely considering this possibility a week ago, but after this weekend, it looks like it is somewhat reasonable with wins over Wake and Duke.
Now, things are more interesting because they play at Miami and Florida State this weekend and then finish next Wednesday with what should be a lay-up at Boston College.
The Duke win moved them into the top 50 of the RPI and they are a respectable 2-3 against top-25 RPI teams. Miami and FSU are both top 30 now, so what would the Terps have to do to have a good shot at making the field?
If they win out, that would make them 22-10 and 13-7 in the ACC with a red-hot finish that certainly put their RPI in the low 40s or high 30s. In basketball, that's a resume that will usually get your name called. I don't know if it's different in volleyball.
Do they have to win out, or would a split at Miami/FSU and a win at BC get them in the conversation at least?
They are 2-1 against fellow ACC bubblers Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech and swept Georgia Tech in Atlanta. They have some pretty good wins in Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Duke and only one horrid loss (William & Mary, ugghhhh).
Thanks for any input you guys can give me. I'm amazed they are even in a position like this, considering this team went 6-26 two years ago.
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Post by leadbrain on Nov 23, 2010 13:57:22 GMT -5
Can't believe another year is wrapping up! With all matches wrapping up this weekend, here are my PREDICTIONS for NCAA Tourney bids that come out this Sunday. A few things may change before now and then (namely Creighton - needs to have a good showing at the MVC tourney and SMU - needs to win over Pacific). The most interesting things to watch on Sunday:
- Will the SEC get 6 teams in?
- Will the ACC get more than 4 teams in?
- Will the WCC get 2 or 3 bids?
Those are burning questions that will be answered with this weeks games. Since I plan on being somewhat lazy this Thanksgiving weekend after eating too much and adding 15 pounds, here are my tourney predictions!! We'll see how accurate I am at 3pm EST on Sunday! Happy Turkey Day everybody!!
America East - 1
Atlantic 10 -1
ACC - 4 (Duke, UNC, FSU, Miami)
Atlantic Sun - 1
Big 12 - 5 (Neb, ISU, UT, Oklahoma, Mizzou)
Big East - 2 (Cincy, Louisville)
Big sky - 1
Big South - 1
Big 10 - 8 (Illinois, PSU, Minn, NW, Purdue, OSU, Mich, Indiana)
Big West - 2 (LBSU, CSF)
CAA - 1
Conf USA - 1 (TULSA)
Horizon - 1
Ivy - 1
Metro - 1
MAC - 1 (OHIO)
MEAC - 1
MVC - 4 (UNI, WSU, Miss St, Creighton)
Mountain West - 2 (CSU, UNM)
NEC - 1
OVC - 1
Pac 10 - 7 (Stan, Cal, USC, UW, UCLA, U of A, Ore)
Patriot - 1
SEC - 6 (UF, LSU, UT, Ole Miss, Auburn, UK)
Southern - 1
Southland - 1
SWAC - 1
Summit - 1
Sun Belt - 2 (WKU, MTSU)
WCC - 2 (SD, Pepp/SMU)
WAC - 1
Teams that are holding their breath at 3pm EST on Sunday:
Virginia Tech - will the committee dive deep into the lower half of the ACC to take a team?
Maryland - do wins over Duke and Florida State and a top 5 finish in the ACC get them in the tourney
Marquette - A win over Northern Illinois would help but not sure that guarantees them a spot
Villanova - early loss in Big East Tournament puts them out of the tourney
Western Michigan - not a strong enough out of conference schedule and a bad showing at the MAC tournament probably has them on the outside looking in
Ball State - see WMU
Northern Illinois - a win over Marquette would help but losing to Ohio in the MAC championship may have put the nail in the coffin
SMU - A win over Tulsa could possibly put them in. If that doesn't happen, my magic 8 ball says "outcome doesn't look good"
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Post by Rainmaker on Nov 23, 2010 14:11:43 GMT -5
The SEC was very weak this year. I can't believe six teams will make it. I think four is plenty.
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Post by leadbrain on Nov 23, 2010 14:20:23 GMT -5
Rainmaker, a few weeks ago i would have agreed with you. however, with all those six teams in the top 50 in the RPI it is hard to say no to any of those teams.... If the committee decides to pass on any of them it would be either Auburn or Ole Miss
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Post by ccman on Nov 23, 2010 15:40:26 GMT -5
13 teams - Ole Miss, Auburn, Maryland, Va Tech, Cal Poly, Long Beach, St. Marys, Pepperdine, Oregon, Creighton, Missouri State, Marquette, and SMU - providing the last in/out discussions for the last 8 spots (or less if MVC or WAC tourny upsets) IMO
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Post by austintatious on Nov 23, 2010 15:44:59 GMT -5
good eval, ccman.
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Post by ccman on Nov 23, 2010 16:11:51 GMT -5
I think there are matches that could have a bearing on bubble tweaks: Long Beach's RPI is gonna drop a lot this weekend, it could go sub-50 if they lose to ND. Oregon, ugh, but they'll get discussed. I don't know why Indiana/Kentucky are questioned, they have too many good Ws, and Kentucky played a great non-conf schedule.
Maryland, Ole Miss & Cal Poly would be the most interesting discussions to me. Maryland & Ole MIss didn't beat anybody outside the ACC/SEC. Cal Poly did, but has the highest RPI. Would the committee leave Long Beach out of the tournament?
Notre Dame @ Long Beach
Pacific @ St. Marys
MVC 1st round for Creighton/Miss St.
Oregon @ Washington
Northern Ill @ Marquette.
Auburn @ Geogia (now that would be a bad loss).
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Post by baywatcher on Nov 23, 2010 17:13:34 GMT -5
To madddog, nice to see a positive post. I note that Maryland's RjPI is near what would be the cut-off point if the Committee just added teams by RPI, but on the down side.
A lot of the negative pub for the ACC comes from conferences like the WCC and Big West that may get limited teams in the tournament, like 1, and both have proud traditions. I personally want to see St. Mary's get in, but their RPI is significantly lower than other teams between them and the cut off point. Many of the west coast fans know little of ACC volleyball, or the teams they regularly play, so it is easier for us to generalize than analyze. This problem will only get exacerbated as travel budgets shrink. The issues are universal and perpetual; if Maryland defeeats two strong teams this weekend, does that mean Maryland is strong or the other teams not that good? As others have pointed oout, the results of the last weekend tend to not mean much; the Committee needs to get on iwith it's work and will have decided about teams like Maryland and St. Mary's already.
By the way; one reasonably tied in poster said he talked to a Committee member and the ACC was in for a long look, or big discussion, or whatever. Doesn't sound good for Maryland, or other bubble teams, but then again, maybe it is good.
As a last note, referring to West Coast volleyball, the Pac 10 will probably "only" get 6 teams, the WCC should only get 1 if RPI is used, Long Beach is hanging on to what will probably be only 2 from the Big West, if not 1, Hawaii only from the WAC, and there is one team + a bubble, New Mexico, from the MWC. That leaves a lot of openings to be filled in elsewhere (only 5 from the Big 12, that can usually have 7).
Only 1 from the WCC would be hard to swallow, and I think two years in a row. This conference has perpetual 16 seed type San Diego, St. Mary's has gotten to a regional in the past 5 years and took Stanford to 5 last year, Santa Clara to a Final Four in 2005; Pepperdine with a strong tradition, Loyola a power 20 years ago. This is not the SWAC or other "auto" one bid conference, yet the WCC has not earned their way back to prominence after getting 5 teams in a few years ago, four of which lost in the first round. They could end up with one team again.
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